The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age
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    Has Obama Lost the Middle Class?



    At the Atlantic, Joshua Green suggests that Obama's policy wins seem to be addressing the working poor, rather than the middle class. And he quotes Senator Charles Schumer to support his position:

    The Angry Middle Class

    Democrats have always claimed to be the party of ordinary working families, but [Senator Chuck] Schumer thought they were deluding themselves. Most Democratic policies, such as the earned income tax credit or increasing the minimum wage, were geared not toward the middle class but the poor. When middle-class Americans heard Democrats describe their problems, it did not resonate because they were actually the problems of the working poor. Schumer believed that the true middle class comprises people in the prime working years of 25 to 60, whose median household income is around $68,000. He urged his candidates to tout aspirational policies that would appeal to them.

    ''If you win the middle class you win the election, and if you lose them you lose the election,'' said Jim Kessler, the vice president of Third Way, a left-center Washington think tank. ''That's not an opinion, it's a fact. From 1994 to 2004 -- six consecutive election cycles -- Democrats lost median income voters.'' But in 2006 and 2008, with a powerful assist from George W. Bush, they won them and shifted the balance of power in Washington. Schumer read these results as endorsing the idea of a government active on behalf of the middle class.


    But,

    ... none of the administration's three major accomplishments has helped middle-class families in a way that is obvious to them. The stimulus mitigated the effects of the recession, but unemployment remains brutally high. The health-care law most visibly affects the millions without insurance, but that group doesn't include most median-income workers. The rescue and reform of the financial system may have halted the damage to their 401(k)s, but the major beneficiaries appear to them to be Wall Street banks. Indeed, the poll showed that most Americans think that the principal beneficiaries of the government's efforts to restore the economy have been the very same institutions that caused the crisis. ...

    ...

    Schumer is discouraged, but still faithful to his view of the middle class and its requirements. ''People will choose a government that helps them over no government at all,'' he said. ''But they'll choose no government over one they believe is helping somebody else.''


    While I think there is some truth in Green's article as written, if you went through it and substituted "Tea Party" for "true middle class," it would make all sorts of sense. Green's and Schumer's middle class sounds like the constituency of the Tea Party, who are indeed convinced that Obama's administration is against them. Much of what I have read in left-leaning opinion pegs the Tea Party as successful, comfortable, managerial, upper middle class types, but all my siblings (a construction super, a bookkeeper, a waiter, a convention facilitator, a cable installer and a legal secretary) support the Tea Party, and while I don't know their incomes, none of them live upper middle class lifestyles. So my personal experience tells me that the Tea Party does have strong roots among ordinary middle class folks - if they are white. I suspect that despite those median income numbers, Green's (and possibly Schumer's) conception of middle class also excludes a good deal of the break-even working class - probably quite a few people that consider themselves middle class. In other words, I think Green's middle class, and the Tea Party has as much to do with culture as with median income.

    But even so, while we argue over whether Obama is progressive enough, he and the Democratic machine have not presented a strong enough case to the non-white middle class, either. The unemployed are desperate, most people don't understand how health care will benefit them, and Obama did surround himself with Wall Street insiders who did rescue a lot of wealthy firms.

     

    Comments

    This is hardly a new phenomon. Remember the "Reagan Democrats"? Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg coined the term in a classic 1984 study that documented the political evolution of Macomb County, Michigan, which had voted overwhelmingly for JFK in 1960 and even more overwhelmingly for Reagan in 1980. Greenberg concluded that the working class whites of Macomb Country resented Democrats' perceived concern for poor minority populations and felt that Reagan was more concerned with their own interests.


    I'm not a big Schumer fan.  Okay, I never like anybody.  But I do think he has a point here and I think that he particularly has a point as a New York Senator because he represents people in a high tax state with high housing costs.  The needs of the kind of people Schumer is talking about really haven't been addressed by Obama in a meaningful way.

    Take, for example, health insurance.  If you're in the $60-$100K a year range, chances are that all of the drama about health care reform didn't change your life much at all.  Your premiums are what they were before reform became law.  Your premiums will go up next year, like they did a year ago.  Your deductible will go up next year, like it did a year ago.  What your insurance covers will not be substantially different for most people in this income group.  This is not to say that no good was achieved.  Some things are better but they aren't readily apparent and they aren't the big things.  We're not getting more care for less money than we were before and it was always clear that our non-catastrophic needs were not a focus of the debate.  That said, if we get laid off or something we are in better shape now than we were.

    And... um... speaking of laid off.  We feel like since a lot of our colleagues got laid off that our wages are too low, our hours are too long and our jobs are too insecure.  We also notice that the government went to great lengths to protect banking sector jobs and the jobs of one favored trade union but has left the rest of us to fend for ourselves.  Just sayin'.

    We're worried about our retirements, by the way, because most of us don't have pensions anymore.  Those fixed annuity payments for life were replaced by retirement plans that are portable and flexible but that transfer risk to working people like us.  When the transition was first made, companies eased the blow by generously matching worker donations to their 401(k) plans.  This was extra deferred compensation that would help us meet our savings needs.  We have to save 10-15% of our salaries to have a shot at adequate nest-eggs, and that's a lot for a worker to do with money needed here and now.  After the 2001-02 crash, companies made less generous 401(k) matches.  After 2008, a lot of them have been stopped altogether.  So we're left the burden of supplying 100% of the savings and taking all the risk.  Where's Obama on that?

    Speaking of savings... how are we supposed to send our kids to college without burdening them with debt?

    Finally, what about rising local taxes and rising fees for local services that are eating into the disposable incomes of middle Americans because of the huge budget deficits by states, municipalities and state agencies?

    I know that all of these might seem like hollow complaints compared to the difficulties faced by so many Americans and so many people around the world.  But I think it is fair to say that the attitude of our government towards people in Schumer's middle income group goes something like, "these people have their challenges, but are mostly well enough off and they don't merit any sort of extraordinary assistance."  That's hard to get behind.