Mandates: a Rube Goldberg solution

     

    There is a growing consensus that our healthcare system is broken.  That is wrong.  There is no system.  System implies some sort of order.  What we have is healthcare chaos.  Mandates will expand the chaos and do nothing to improve healthcare.  But then they aren’t supposed to, are they.  Mandates are about financing - not care.

    Yes, I know, single-payer is about financing as well but at least it could begin to bring order out of the current chaos.  Mandates will not, even with community rating.  By the way, how will those be calculated?  Will premiums be lower or higher in an upscale community where people are healthier but also may be more litigious and are definitely able to afford higher premiums?  What factors will actuaries use to rate communities?

    Mandates will be a boon to insurers (including AARP) and Wall Street (SIVs?) and Main Street (Chamber of Commerce).  They will also benefit the 1/6 of us not currently insured and maybe some who are savvy investors. But what about the rest of us?  Healthcare providers will be even more overburdened.  Employers as well as healthcare consumers will face even more complexity and chaos.  Employment and healthcare will still be linked.

    If mandates are so bad, why are the leading Democratic candidates and progressive pundits Ezra Klein and Paul Krugman advocating for them?  For the simple reason that they are considered “doable” politically.  Some advocates also seem think mandates are a first step on the way to single-payer.  I can imagine the insurance industry lobby rolling on the floor laughing.   Mandates as a way to single-payer are like the proverbial knife in a gun fight – worse than useless.

    One of the biggest obstacles to a single-payer system is the trillion or so dollars it could pull out of the financial markets and give to Congress to putz around with “earmark”.  The transfer of that much money out of the control of the people who now have it is bound to produce the most effective resistance.  It is why Rube Goldberg solutions like mandates are considered “doable”.  The money stays where it is and as a bonus generates a windfall to the insurance industry like the one they and Big Pharma got with the Medicare drug plan.

    Why are we beginning negotiations by offering to accept the least we can get?  There has to be a better way to buy off the insurance and investment industries.

    Why not just pay insurers to manage the investment of single-payer premiums?   They already have their own investment divisions.  How much each insurance company manages could be divvied up based on their market share of supplemental health insurance sold.  They get to stay in business and have an incentive to keep premiums competitively reasonable.  DJIA doesn’t drop a few thousand points.  Congress has to segregate the funds.

    From the insurers perspective this would not be as profitable as mandates.  Maybe it is even less profitable than what they have now; however, they are very near to pricing themselves out of business so why wouldn’t they consider the offer. 

    Comments

    I agree with your description of the problem. Solution? I still prefer the universal healthcare by expanding Medicare. Giving it to the insurers is just a waste of money. Ok, I know maybe in our crazy society, this will never work. But I'd prefer to advocate for what is really more sensible. Easier for providers to bill. Easier for patients to access. Trying to decide on an insurer may make sense for very bright people with access to info etc. But for the elderly, the disabled, the poor, the street people, the mentally ill ... no. Better one system that does not have policies. You get a card. You go for care. Medicare works!

    We already have a fragmented number of social medical systems. Prisons.  Military. Veterans.  Public Health.  Medicare.  Medicaid.  Fold it all into one system:  Medicare.   


    I have not looked into something I have been considering to validate or reject, but it seems a concern for the price for health delivery though public companies.

    We are told that there are less companies providing health insurance to their employees and more individual can't afford it. This would indicate a static or falling growth in the numbers individuals being covered. Or to put it another way the business is not acquiring new customers and must continue to grow its profits by increasing its share of what it makes by denying claims or increasing the price of the service it delivers.

    If insurance companies were limited to a percentage of the costs for income this would encourage them to allow medical costs to inflate to meet wall streets expectations of their own return.

    Any way I think of it if there is a fixed pool of customers and they become the governments controllers of services and costs it would seem to me to have a built in conflict of interest.

    This may not be as clear as I would hope, but since I have not the facts of how this exactly works now or would in the future, it would seem that the companies would need to go private or the investors need to expect returns more like have invested in "bonds" with a steady income adjusted for inflation over a long period of time.

    -----------------------------------------------

    Today, are we searching for I deals or Ideals?

    -Thinking


    A single-payer, Medicare-for-all is my first choice, too, with the option to buy supplemental private coverage.   I hope I didn't give the impression that I was advocating for something else.  What I hoped to offer was an alternative way to buy off the biggest interests and get a real single-payer system.

    There will still be premiums (taxes) under a single payer public system.  Going single-payer would just switch $1 trillon or so from private premiums to public taxes.  Personally I would rather that money be escrowed rather than put in the general fund to finance foreign adventures or build bridges to nowhere. 

    My proposal is to let the insurance companies manage investment of the escrowed funds.  They will also offer Medicare supplement insurance but they will no longer be the primary insurer -- that would be Medicare.

    France's healthcare system has often been held up as the model that we should emulate.  Did you know France had to buy off their insurance companies?  I don't know the details.  Maybe someone else here does. 

    Anyway, if we have to buy them off and it seems like we do, there are better ways to do it than with mandates that help them more than us.

    I am really, really disappointed and irritated with the Democratic candidates for suggesting the mandate schemes without even trying to explain why they would choose to promote such a complicated solution over a simple single-payer plan without a fight.  I wish Huey Long was still around to heap scorn and derision on them as well as on "the interests".

     


    I know how you feel.  I have so many questions and too few answers.

    I do suspect that insurance companies probably have invested quite a bit in SVIs since they were supposedly backed by real property and many had AAA ratings.  Scary.

    Things really aren't going that well for insurers.  A lot of physicians and businesses want out of their system as much as we do.   It is really a shame that the Democratic candidates are so timid when insurers are the weakest they have been in my lifetime.  That's a long time by the way.

     


    Thank you for this lovely post and your clarification here. I too am very distressed with the plans of the Dems.

    I am intrigued by your idea of having the insurance companies "invest" the money. Hmmmmm. What would worry me is the high fees they might charge. Since this fiasco with the mortgages, I've been thanking our lucky stars that bush did not succeed in getting social security partly privatized, due to the way in which money would have been siphoned off for fees.

    So, I get where you're coming from. And I did not know about France having to buy off the insurance companies. I do know that in Spain you can buy extra insurance so that you can go to special clinics and not just use the national healthcare. In Canada, they have a lovely system.

    I am totally on board with your idea about Medicare. And sorry I misunderstood what you had in mind for the insurance companies. Do you think it can be done without tons of money being siphoned off by them? And if and when the repubs get back in again, what's to keep them from loosening controls over that... to allow for more of a money grab?

    But if your plan would work, that would also solve Part D of Medicare, which is a travesty. Just yesterday i was looking at my husband's notification from Social Security. His Part D is literally half each month of the amount he pays for all of regular Medicare! (and likely that will keep creeping up)

    Thank you, Emma, for your clear thinking and excellent posts here and at tpm Muckraker.


    Consider this: Some insurance companies insured such bonds - the ones that are going bust! I.E. some who bought the bonds also bought insurance on them!! And some of those insurance companies are now going to have to declare bankruptcy... as the bonds go bust and the holders of insurance on them seek to get reimbursed! It's a cascade of problems.

    This whole mortgage thing is such a mess! I honestly see the economy sinking in a very bad way over this.

    So many things have gone wrong under bush. I am pretty discouraged. I know one person who lost her house a year ago. They were 8 years from paying off the house when they fell on hard times - with one spouse on disability and the other unable to work for about 6 months (and 3 teenagers). A home equity scam left them unable to pay, when the rates went up. ... That's only one story, but I am truly worried that we now live in a society full of scavengers, people preying on the weak, ignorant, or poor.

    Back to your comment.  I am a psychologist.  It is so annoying to be "under the thumb" of managed care - and while most insurance companies now have gotten away from managed care for "medical care," that is now the norm for mental health.  Which is often reimbursed at a much lower percentage (even in Medicare, mind you).  I have gotten out of all networks for that reason.  But get this, even if you write them saying "take me off your network," they won't do it sometimes!!!  Very annoying!  They get you coming and going!


    The purchase mandate on one hand, and the regulatory mandate that carriers take on all comers without regard to pre existing conditions at a community price, both appear to be obtrusive attempts by the government to force a "market based outcome" different from that produced by a free market.

    In reality this is a (virtuous) scam, because, when coupled with the proviso that individuals of whatever age may fulfill their purchase mandate by buying into medicare , the resultant competition will crush for profit insurers into the dust.

    Note that the present medicare premium deducted from individual social security checks is less than $100.00 per month (disclaimer:number pulled from ass, correction solicited.)


    You are correct on the number.  Exact figure is $96.40 for 2008. 


    There's no question that any practical approach will require transition, and that things will be fought. While France's system has been mentioned tonight, and there are many references to Canada and Britain, I'm a little surprised the German system is not better known here. Japan's system is also quite close to Germany's.


    Both are multi-payor with a government safety net. I'm more familiar with the German system, so I'll focus on that.


    Germany passed its first medical insurance plan in 1883. Originally, it was 1/3 employer paid and 2/3 employee, administered by local committees elected by the employees (as the major contributors).


    Over time, the employee contributions started to go into not-for-profit "sick funds", often administered by unions. Yes, there are employer contributions, but no "insurance companies" in our sense (there are some special cases, mostly for the wealthy). A government safety net handles the unemployed.


    One of the interesting things is that they don't micromanage or preapprove, but still have a national quality control organization. Providers, in fact, are paid (I'm simplifying a bit) for the effort of collecting statistics.


    Roughly quarterly, provider costs and outcomes are evaluated statistically by medical professionals and analysts. Good outcomes and low costs are investigated, as are bad ones.


    When a provider is doing well, the investigators try to learn if it was statistically random, or if they are doing something especially well. If it does turn out they have improved techniques, this is disseminated to the medical community by the national quality organization. IIRC, if a provider stays above the norm for two years, they can list this in marketing materials.


    For providers that do not do well, and again on a statistically significant sample, the investigators visit. In the journals I've seen, the term most often used for the flavor of the visit is "collegial". No threats to cut out of network, not reimburse, etc., to start, but an honest attempt to understand what happened.


    Perhaps Dr. Schmidt had a practice of 85 year olds, whose bodies gave out at the same time. Perhaps there was an epidemic in Darmstadt. If there's a decent explanation for the outlier, there may be increased surveillance for a time, but nothing drastic.


    If there is a problem with quality, the reviewers, again acting collegially to start, try to fix the problem. If the practitioner ignores the advice, there indeed may be consequences -- after reason has failed.

    --

    Howard

    *equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

    "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]


    No purchase mandate. I favor a single-payer we'd be free to opt out of in favor of voucher-style portable HMO eligibility.

    Whatever it is, it should be done by and for people, not by industry. Done as a national program, we could weigh and budget things to give a boon to the companies presently underwriting the healthcare economy. That's appropriate- they should continue to get paid for their work.

    It's their work that should change. Why did my insurance plan (group plan, I'm self-employed with my wife) go up 10% this year, despite me opting for higher copays? And the previous year, when I did the same? And the previous year? Because they're public, for-profit companies who hire secretaries and lawyers to grow their business, not shrink their market.

    Invest in health.


    "Note that the present medicare premium deducted from individual social security checks is less than $100.00 per month."

    That is the premium only for Medicare Part B. It is a deceptive number because it along with the premium for Part A are subsidized with a 2.9% federal payroll tax and maybe from the general fund as well. According to Wikipedia:

    Medicare-eligible persons who do not have 40 or more quarters of Medicare-covered employment may purchase Part A for a monthly premium of:

    • $226.00 per month (2007) for those with 30-39 quarters of Medicare-covered employment, or
    • $410.00 per month (in 2007) for those with less than 30 quarters of Medicare-covered employment and who are not otherwise eligible for premium-free Part A coverage.

    There are additional premiums for Part D as well.  Medicare's financing is complicated. 

    Premiums for a basic single payer plan should logically be less than what most people pay now for similar private coverage but they will most likely be more than $100 per month.


    but they will most likely be more than $100 per month.

    quite true.

    The imponderable is the extent to which the general fund will subsidize (as it already does) each additional new medicare beneficiary.

    Where that tipping point is put will determine the competitive advantage of medicare over for profit insurers.


    Maybe I am more comfortable with the idea because I spent most of my life working in the investment community -- most of it when it was more about investing than speculation.  Believe it or not, there are people in the industry who take their fiduciary responsibilities seriously.  Those who don't, the operators, are problematic but I think their glory days may be ending.  From David Ignatius's column today:

    "What scares the central bankers now is the evaporation of trust from the system. Banks don't believe each other's numbers..."

    ""The basic problem is that banks don't trust each other. "

    I imagine many in the finance industry will be shedding a lot of their hot shot creative accountants in favor of some duller but more trustworthy bean counters if for no other reason than to find out where they stand.  Maybe I should dust off my resume.

    As for the fees, they are always negotiable.

     


    Germany's system sounds very, well, um, German.  Efficient and effective.

    Think about how much information on human health we could be gathering and analyzing with such a system.  What we could be learning.  We have three times their population and it is much more diverse.

    But back to France.  One of the articles I read said that they pay for doctors' tuition so they get more doctors who don't have to make as much because they have no student loans.  They also don't have to worry so much about malpractice suits.  Not sure how they handle that.

    IMO, we will need lots more doctors, nurses, lab techs etc. before healthcare costs will come down.  I don't know where we are going to get them.  Maybe Cuba.  I read a review of SICKO that said Cuba has one doctor for every 75 people.

     


    Think about how much information on human health we could be gathering and analyzing with such a system. What we could be learning. We have three times their population and it is much more diverse.

    With a combination of universal access to health care, and properly privacy-protected electronic medical records, perhaps we should justify this under the terrorism budget: finding early patterns in medical records is probably the mechanism best suited to detecting covert bioterrorism.


    I am only guessing about the malpractice situation in France, but remember, they are Civil Law, not Common Law. Their judges and magistrates are not referees between opposing sides as we have here, but, even in criminal matters, charged with finding truth. An expert panel, then, would fit quite well into French legal culture.

    --

    Howard

    *equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

    "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]


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