The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age

    Math is Tuff

    By PeraclesPlease on Wed, 05/18/2016 - 10:30am |

    So if superdelegates shouldn't count, there are 4051 pledged delegates.

    1/2 plus 1 = 2026 to win.

    Hillary has roughly 1717 after last night - a few more to be awarded

    She needs 309 for pledged victory.

    There are 781 pledged delegates left.

    With 40% of the remainder, she wins.

    With 51% of California and New Jersey, she wins even with delegates elsewhere.

    If she gets 45% of all others (81), she only needs 38% of CA & NJ to win (228)

    There will be no contested convention. It's all predicated on bad math - if superdelegates are tossed out, the half to victory goes down.

    Does not augur well for someone who wants to offer budget busting reforms. Math ain't that tuff. (Even for a girl?)

    Comments

    Update: latest tally Clinton has 1771 - only 255 pledged delegates needed for victory, 32% of remaining. Only 109 if superdelegates counted.

    Bernie would need every contest to be a blowout like Vermont.


    by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 05/19/2016 - 4:49am

    Assuming Hillary's  super delegates remain loyal she only needs an additional  91 pledged delegates.

    Bernie knows this as well  but is remaining in the race because.

    o  he'll have more clout at the  convention if he  shows he got some votes from NJ and Cal

    o he likes campaigning

    o he thinks Hillary will be indicted before the convention and her superdelegates will bail.


    by Flavius on Thu, 05/19/2016 - 1:08pm