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    North Korean missile launch: too soon to panic?

    After North Korea announced it will launch its first satellite next week, the West went ballistic, saying it's really a disguised test of the Taepodong 2 rocket. And that violates a 2006 Security Council resolution, passed in the wake of North Korea's half-successful nuclear test, which bans it from testing long-range missiles.

    But the attempt to pressure North Korea into backing down has been bumbling and incoherent. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned that the launch would have "consequences to the six-party (nuclear) talks, which we would like to see revived and moving forward as quickly as possible." That's supposed to be a threat? It's the West, not the North, that is counting on success in those talks. 

    As for taking the issue to the Security Council, North Korea is already in open violation of several sanctions resolutions. One more won't faze them.

    Then there's the threat to shoot down the missile. Warning that the Taepodong 2 could in theory reach the continental United States, Pacific commander Timothy Keating said he was "prepared" to do so, and the Japanese defense minister chimed in that he might too. He even deployed anti-missile ships to the Sea of Japan. 

    All a bluff. Defense Secretary Robert Gates came out today and told Fox News the U.S. can't shoot it down and won't even try -- and neither will the Japanese. Maybe someone looked at the UN resolution and realized it doesn't authorize any military action.

    So the satellite launch (or missile test, if you prefer) will go ahead. And one has to wonder what all the sound and fury was about. A conspiracy theorist would point out that all U.S. military spending is currently under a microscope. The anti-ballistic-missile pilot project is one of the most wasteful boondoggles on the books, and stoking fears about crazy North Koreans with nukes might help preserve its funding. Thankfully, Gates has again been the adult in the room.

     

     

    Comments

    Let's see what they actually do. If it is a satellite launch it will be quite apparent. If not, we'll know. And the last Taepodong test didn't fare so well for NK, did it?


    No reason it can't be a satellite launch and a missile test at the same time.
    Whatever its trajectory, unless it goes off course and heads straight for Tokyo, there's no point to trying to shoot it down.
    It's not like it carries a warhead. Nobody thinks the North Koreans are so wily they would plan a sneak attack but announce it weeks in advance to throw the Japanese off guard.
    Or would they?


    Launches are very different than missile tests. If only in terms of trajectory and deployment of a payload.

    I don't think anyone is quite so stupid to think NK is going to attack anyone in this way - they know it will bring instant massive retaliation, probably to the extent of annihilation. They're troublesome and intransigent but not suicidal - they have goals and martyrdom isn't likely one of them.

    We'll know a bit more shortly in any case.


    It's obvious that putting something into orbit takes a specific trajectory (although virtually any long-range launch will pass over some part of Japan). Satellite or not, it's also a good test of your rocket's engines, guidance and control systems.
    And we agree: North Korea wants recognition and respect, not piles of smoldering rubble.


    At the same time, we get a great opportunity to get some serious data on that sucker. It seems most of the missile technology in the M.E. is based on N.K. design. Couldn't hurt to get a better look at where the designs are going.

    I wonder what sort of satellite they are launching ... damn thing is probably going to smash into someone else's knowing the N. Korean technology.


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