The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age
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    Rafsanjani out? Iran gets murkier

    Unconfirmed reports out of Iran say former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has resigned as chairman of the powerful Expediency Council, which arbitrates disputes between the religious leadership (Council of Guardians) and the Majlis or parliament.

    Rafsanjani also chairs the Assembly of Experts, and it's not clear if he will retain that position. That is the group that elects (and conceivably can remove) the religious Supreme Leader -- currently Ali Khamenei. If he keeps that post, it could set up an interesting dynamic.

    Rafsanjani had solidly backed defeated presidential candidate Mir Hosein Mousavi, and was personally attacked for that by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. There are two possible interpretations of his (alleged) resignation: either it's a protest against Khamenei's acceptance of the disputed election result, or it's Khamenei and Ahmadinejad forcing him out to nip any protests in the bud. Or a little of both.

    Either way, Iran could be losing a powerful pragmatist (though conservative) voice. Not a good sign.

    Comments

    It may be a slow news day in the U.S. but it definitely appears to be chaotic in Iran. So far the two blogs I've seen that appear to be following the developments fairly closely are http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/ and http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/.


    I understand that communications to and from Iran are spotty, but I would like to see more of an effort by the mainstream media to sort out what is or is not happening on the ground.
    Instead, it's being left to the unholy alliance of bloggers Andrew Sullivan and Hugh Hewitt to define the reality. Both seem gung-ho for an Iranian civil war.
    So far, the most sensational reports -- that Mousavi is under house arrest, that Rafsanjani has resigned, and that rioting has killed 50 to 100 people -- are totally unconfirmed. The media need to do their job, even in these difficult circumstances.
    My own take is that the reported election results -- shocking as they seem -- may be acurate. I explain why here: http://dagblog.com/world-affairs/iran-all-tree-no-forest-730
    But then, I know even less about what's occurring on the ground than Sullivan or Hewitt. Iran may be indeed on the verge of revolution.
    For now, I'm skeptical.


    I just got around to reading Juan Cole's blog, which Josh links to from the front page. Here's the link again: http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/stealing-iranian-election.html
    Cole makes a good case for voter fraud. For example, Mousavi is reported to have lost in Tabriz, capital of Azerbaijan province, despite the fact he's from that province.
    Cole also reports that Ahmadinejad is said to have won a majority in Tehran -- the heart of Mousavi's support. That conflicts with what I initially read, which was that Mousavi won there.
    So there's definitely circumstantial evidence. But I have yet to hear an observer say, "X number of votes were counted, and Y is the number that election officials announced."



    Cole, Sullivan, and the Lede are all over this, and the MSM are completely dropping the ball. The CNN coverage has been particularly telling-- "one side says this, another side says this!" It's a combination of cowardice (in case somehow the election turns out to be legitimate) and laziness; meanwhile, watch frightening Christian Barbi-doll on Larry King!

    I can understand the White House laying low, but the MSM coverage is simply terrible. This is huge, massively important news, and anyone with a brain seems to have gone to the Hamptons for the weekend.

    The young people of Iran who are fighting the corrupt theocracy deserve our support.


    The White House has to deal with whoever emerges on top, and that looks almost certain to be Ahmadinejad. So they're right to be cautious.
    You're absolutely right on CNN's default he-said/she-said approach. Interview people whose positions and agendas are obvious, get a few sound-bites, and forget about trying to factually inform your viewers.
    Oh, and toss in a few of their emails as a sop. Pathetic.


    Why MSNBC didn't choose to run a weekend long special "Iran election 2009 coverage" and follow the events on the ground as they unfolded is beyond me.

    The whole reason for being a 24 hour news network is now lost on me. It was an opportunity for at least one news source here in the U.S. to demonstrate the importance of international journalism.


    exasperated sigh of agreement here!.......


    It's sad... they were completely stupid in the way that they apparently cheated... making the results completely unrealistic. Did they want chaos and a reason to put a bunch of organizers in jail?

    And we have no ground to stand on based on the GW election and all he and his adminstration did...

    What an awful mess.


    On the Tabriz thing, I just ran across this short audio slideshow that Jon Lee Anderson did to go along with his April New Yorker article on Ahmadinejad. He went along on an Ahmadinejad visit to Tabriz seemed pretty impressed with the both Ahmadinejad's modus operandi and the reception he got:

    The Prodigal Son

    The New Yorker, April 13, 2009

    This week in the magazine, Jon Lee Anderson writes about the Iranian President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Here, Anderson narrates an audio slide show about Ahmadinejad’s visit to Tabriz, in northwest Iran. Photographs by Thomas Dworzak.

    http://www.newyorker.com/online/multimedia/2009/04/13/090413_audioslideshow_ahmadinejad

    51% doesn't sound so out of line to me after seeing that.

    Whatever the case, I think it is good for people to bring skepticism to this, because even if the election was fixed, I do get the sense that most western reporters, experts, and commentators, even the best ones, get all their understanding from urbanites and elites, even their supposed understanding of the more rural population is filtered that way. And it can be dangerous to make judgments on other things on that basis.

    Heck, you can find examples in this country, we have to have people like Thomas Frank write books like "What's The Matter with Kansas?" to explain a place like Kansas to us. I dare say many people who frequent this website have a hard time with places like Texas or Alabama to this day.... :-)


    Thanks for this. I was away from the computer all day yesterday and I kept checking the cable networks for some word of what was happening. Simply pathetic coverage.


    Mousavi has formally appealed the election result to the Council of Guardians, while asking supporters to keep their protests peaceful and legal. He's also asked permission to hold a march and rally (good luck with that).
    At least that news suggests he is not, as reported, under house arrest.


    I'm not sure how reliable the info is (makes things seem way more serious than I've seen elsewhere) but there's a live blog going on Huffington Post http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html


    Stuff like:

    "From an emailer Salim: "This is beginning to mirror what I witnessed in the first revolution. When people start taking over military centers. There is report that a basiji center in Northern Tehran around Tajrish has been captured by the protesters. This would potentially mean weapons in hands of protesters. I'll let you know if I heard more."

    Like I said. Way more serious but not sure if it's reliable info.