MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
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Hits of the Day
How independents, Latinos & Catholics shifted from 2016 & swung states for Biden & Trump
By artappraiser on Thu, 11/12/2020 - 2:44am |These are the biggest demographic shifts in the 2020 election
URL:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/elections/exit-polls-changes-2016-2020/?itid=hp-banner-main
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Here is the full chart at the top of their story; the bottom 1/3 is cut off in the tweet; also includes these groups-
helped Trump: more black men and more age 30-44
helped Biden: more white men and more Catholics
by artappraiser on Thu, 11/12/2020 - 3:17am
To be clear: there are LOTSA charts, this one page is part of an entire set of articles; these charts are all focused on the swing decisive states this time, the states for the win.
Here's an excerpt of the text included to give an example:
by artappraiser on Thu, 11/12/2020 - 3:40am
Well, Bernie wasn't beating Joe up incessantly in front of liberal independents well into August.
And for Biden, "less is more" seems to apply - the lockdown possibly helped him, rather than 8 more months of overexposure. Including giving a bored media "scandals" to write about. There simply wasn't something new or fresh enough to go with, and Trump always demanded more eyeballs and clicks.
So I'm skeptical about what conclusions we can draw. Hillary made a good succuba/Baba Yaga to fuel the right's nightmares - still not quite sure why, but she became a Rorschach test of evil possibilities - right and left. Joe was VP while Hillary was SoS, along with whoever was SecDef, but she owns all military decisions under Obama, even more than Obama, including his 2nd 4 years. Against that, Sleepy Joe was a relief, a net positive - many people didn't want someone woke and energetic - that was Trump. And Bernie. Slow and easy was a good option.
And just like 2018's women's revolution, Bernie 1.0 was a known quantity, less fresh 4 years on.
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 11/12/2020 - 7:09am
I see a very clear conclusion: only Dems with a bipartisan attitude can win the presidency.
The moderates and independents are who did it for Joe. In swing states, of course. By large margins.
There are not enough people in any kind left coalition of any kind to do that. Pull some in with one message, you turn off others.
The narrative that the country has moved left is false, false, false.
Hillary was seen as more partisan. She was more partisan and she was painted as more partisan than she was. Far more than Obama.
It probably helped that Kamala was a tough prosecutor or she may have hurt. The V-P, though, is always appointed so late that there's not that much of time to paint him or her as there is with the candidate.
Maybe millennials will turn this situation as more boomers die, but probably not, because forever it's been a known phenomenon that people get more moderate as they age.
Also a reminder that Trump did not prove to be moderate nor bipartisan, just the opposite, so there was an added kicker to the effect here. He appeared in 2016 to be so in some ways, more than any other GOP candidates, a fresh nonpartisan actor who was willing to bash partisan others in his party, but didn't end up that way at all, just more partisanship.
by artappraiser on Thu, 11/12/2020 - 12:21pm
P.S. Also: White men + 7 for Biden, black men + 6 for Trump.
by artappraiser on Thu, 11/12/2020 - 12:43pm
revisiting this thread on Kamala Harris's selection, I see there were indications of it being a bit of a "Sister Souljah" moment for the far left, as in: shuddup already, you'll eat this and like it, we are not going to pander to you and your friends who chant "fuck Joe Biden" at BLM protests.
by artappraiser on Thu, 11/12/2020 - 3:31pm
For once Trump's right - Fox wasn't near as harsh this cycle as 2016.
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 11/12/2020 - 2:13pm
Garcia Martinez knows Hispanic culture, it's deep in his soul; he also knows the techie "liberalatarian" world too-the wrote a book on it, left it for isolation for a while, living on a boat, but now is back in the thick of it in the Bay area, took some kind of major position offered I am not clear about.
by artappraiser on Thu, 11/12/2020 - 4:05pm
What about the Jerry Falwell/Liberty evangelicals? Did zippergate & pool boys and revelations about his vast wealth dampen the Christian turnout? or more "Fake News"?
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 11/12/2020 - 5:48pm
they do have this on that WaPo "demographic shifts" page:
White evangelical Christians (28% of voters) went + 8 for Biden over Hillary vote in 2016 and -4 from vote for Trump in 2016. They compare these to "all other voters" (72%) where the same numbers are equal pluses, cancelling each other out, + 2 for Trump and + 2 for Biden! So they are basically saying the evangelical voters that flipped made a difference!
The evangelicals are broken out from "religion" presented this way: Protestant/Other Christian 43%, Catholic 25%, No Religion 22%. First category: Biden and Clinton vote equal, and Trump +4. Second: Biden + 6, Trump -3. Third: Biden -2, Trump + 6.
So it does certainly looked like some evangelicals switching to Joe from Trump helped him, and the other kind of Protestants didn't?
by artappraiser on Thu, 11/12/2020 - 6:33pm
The ultimate 'splainer why the national Dem party needs to court the middle and the Republican party doesn't:
The crisis isn’t too much polarization. It’s too little democracy.
If Republicans couldn’t win so much power while losing votes, the US wouldn’t be in the current crisis.
By Ezra Klein @ Vox.com, Nov 12, 2020, 11:40am EST
Basically a summary of what he learned writing his book on political polarization, so grab it and you don't have to read the book. Cavaet: no easy solutions if Dems keep losing the ability to undo some of the gerrymandering much less the electoral college.
Alternately, my thoughts: people moving away from urban areas because of Covid-19 might even things out some!
by artappraiser on Thu, 11/12/2020 - 10:38pm
More Biden 2020 vs. Clinton 2016 + 2012 studies,.Wisconsin & Michigan
by artappraiser on Fri, 11/13/2020 - 1:59am
Supports the idea of building support, that a lost but challenged election this time can lead to a win next.
But also gives an idea much of this isn't about the candidate or ideas, but just drifts in polarization over time.
by PeraclesPlease on Fri, 11/13/2020 - 2:20am
Neglected Hispanics still fight
(Mexican-Americans, not just "Hispanics")
whole thread, pretty good.
25 years we've known the large Mexican demo was growing,
yet we're still acting surprised & unresponsive.
Wonder how much is because Cubans & Puerto Ricans are closer
to eastern media centers, stuff out west is just California, et al, ignored itself
by PeraclesPlease on Fri, 11/13/2020 - 3:24am
DIY renegade campaigns are a thing.
What the bastards behind CItizens United (which I actually agree with - perhaps the last time I was swayed by Glenn Greenwald in saying that the Constitution probably did not mean for the FEC to shut down small groups self-organizing for a candidate), 2020 capitalized on.
But Citizens United wasn't quite grassroots, nor Lincoln Project, the way Meidas Touch was.
Watch out - could get crazy going forward. It's so easy to make a difference with the internet's reach, if done right.
(and better citizen activism than breaking windows and hassling diners)
by PeraclesPlease on Fri, 11/13/2020 - 3:46am
And then there's the Korean K-Pop fans who banded together and overloaded Trump disinfo efforts.
Kinda cool, though if it's on the other foot, might not be so nice - see the Koming K-haos.
by PeraclesPlease on Fri, 11/13/2020 - 3:49am
yes, yes, yes, that's surely what's going to happen. I just don't see how big tent parties can continue to have control of the electorate. If they stick to their arcane rules of running Congress, they are just going to get continual grief from favoring one camp over another. I'm no rocket scientist,I don't know how to solve it, how to make common good sausage, but surely it is not to say: you choose between one of two parties on vague ideology and platforms, and sit back and hope they represent your interests. That's just a recipe for continually throwing the old bums out, let's try the other bums this time.
Edit to add: note this is really just problematic at the Federal level. People who are activist about something end up figuring out how to affect policy locally and if a larger group disagrees, they learn to fight back about that, too.
by artappraiser on Fri, 11/13/2020 - 12:10pm
"That's just a recipe for continually throwing the old bums out, let's try the other bums this time."
But that's just not what happens. And I've seen no reliable data that supports the notion that it will happen in the future. Incumbents win the vast majority of times. Either there is no accountability or the electorate likes what their elected officials are doing.
by ocean-kat on Fri, 11/13/2020 - 1:13pm
On balance of power at national level, Slotkin sees different, I'm talking the same thing she is
by artappraiser on Fri, 11/13/2020 - 1:45pm
Sure but it's not anything like throw the bums out. 95 out of 100 senators get re-elected and 5 seats flip. It about the same in the house, 95% get re-elected and about 5% flip. That tiny change can produce large swings in policy. But again, we have to conclude that there's almost no accountability or the a majority of the electoral likes what the vast majority of the politicians currently in power are doing.
by ocean-kat on Fri, 11/13/2020 - 2:04pm