Finally, a not insane discussable article.

I still feel he glosses around the expansion of the European Union (not mentioned once), and doesn't acknowledge what *people themselves* want. It's more Yalta agreement, dividing sectors, but accepting Russia as an equal morally and power-wise. East European countries largely disagree, and after 40 years of captivity, it'd be strange to have them think otherwise.

The lack of mention of the EU makes it hard to accept that NATO is not an attack force, but simply the military/police arm of a civil federation. The EU is not trying to claim Turkey or Serbia or Belorus or even Moldavia. Ukraine was more organic than Russia likes to give credit for - giving Donbas veto over Kiev is like letting Youngstown or West Virginia set military industrial policy for New York or Seattle - one's a backwards holdover from a faded day of glory, the other's a vibrant adapting economy and society (aside from being Ukraine's long time capital). Yes, they speak Spanish in El Paso, but we don't give Mexico City de facto control over the Big Bend region due to language and ethnicity.

The Arab Spring never came up re Middle East, which is a shame. I always favored an Arab Union equivalent to the EU or a secondary accession area, or some way of extending the EU's stability to suitable neighbors. The overthrow of Libya didn't come in a vacuum, but as part of a wider awakening and unrest, that we basically flubbed. We *did* give support to Moslem Brotherhood in Egypt, despite their unsuitability, though we turned a blind eye to Bahrain's protestors. We put our thumbs too heavy on the scale in Libya, even though inaction wasn't a good or humane option - Hillary had already voiced anathema to watching helplessly by another Srebrenice or Rwanda, and Qaddafi had already laid down the gauntlet (inconveniently playing into historical ethnic/cultural/regional divisions in Libya). 

The author misses a chance to discuss Putin's role in ripping Turkey away from Europe and stoking Erdogan's repressive fundamentalism, along with abetting Syria's brutal hold on power. While the author talks of Monroe Doctrine equivalents, he ignores the British play in these areas, the Great Game, along with the Ottoman Empire's. By what authority is Russia given claim to all of the others' fading colonialism? Wouldn't we more justly call for more self-determinism, and make that the backbone of our military alliance goals? The author seems to contend it's all for our power extension, ignoring that we don't actually occupy any of these countries, and as shown in Greece, our ability to tell them what to do is limited.

Then there's Hong Kong, which despite his assurances is not doing well as China's recent crackdowns have shown - yes, tied to military and land buildups in the Spratleys and other parts of the "South China Sea". and other "micro-aggressions" like imprisoning 1 million Uighurs in East Turkestan/Xinjiang and building tourist rail lines through Tibet. Against this background, asking Taiwan to docilely accept Chinese mainland overlords is absurd. That China accepts decades to resolve some conflicts isn't comforting for anyone with children or grandchildren. SE Asia has had trouble enough throwing off the communist dictatorships in Laos, Vietnam, Burma, and even Cambodia -  China's golden handcuffs version of vicious communism with a bit of successful capitalism thrown in is a Faustian bargain. Thanks, no thanks.

I thought of this thread immediately when i read this op-ed by Robert Kagan. Along the lines of: okay, so now you finally got what you wished for:

WaPo is doing a series Ripple Effect

Part II today:

How a Trump decision on trade became a setback for democracy in Vietnam

Vietnam had promised more workers’ rights when entering into the Trans-Pacific Partnership. After President Trump pulled the United States out in 2017, Vietnam’s Communist government unleashed its most severe clampdown on dissent in decades.

• By Simon Denyer and David Nakamura
• with 4.28 min. titled "Alarming Increase in Arrests"

• Part I: How a Trump decision on abortion policy reverberated around the globe