MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
Order today at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop
MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE by Michael Wolraich Order today at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop |
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If you want to fight Trump effectively, you have to learn to think like they do and give up the prospect that scandal will one day undo him.
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Normal politicians collapse in the face of scandal because it shows them dozing on the job or falling short of their promises. To get elected, they offer a bargain: “Vote for me. I will make you richer/fight for your rights/assure your progress.” Scandals reveal that they can’t do that, and thus, they tumble. However, like all populists, Trump offered a much different deal: “Vote for me. I will destroy your enemies. They are the reason you are not rich/have fewer rights/America is not great anymore.” Scandal is the populist’s natural element for the same reason that demolishing buildings makes more noise than constructing them. His supporters didn’t vote for silence. They voted for a bang
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If dwelling on scandal too much can be counterproductive, then the focus must be elsewhere. I believe it should rest on understanding and empathizing with the grievances that brought Trump to power (wage stagnation, cultural isolation, a depleted countryside, the opioid crisis). Trump’s solutions may be imaginary, but the problems are very real. Populism is and has always been the daughter of political despair. Showing concern is the only way to break the rhetorical polarization.
This writer seems to share the asymmetrical view of Josh that maintains that the sexual abuse revelations would not have negative voter impact on Trump and on GOP electeds or candidates because their voters simply don't care about these issues. [To what degree does an analysis of Alabama Senate race data support that view?] Or perhaps some do to some degree, but, to the above writer's point, to a greater degree they view Trump and GOP electeds as sharing enemies with themselves.
The Iron Triangle which right now plagues us consists of Trump, his voters, and his big donors and dark money supporters. If, hypothetically, his favorability ratings were to descend further--not at all clear this will happen--in the coming months, could this impact the behavior of enough key Republicans in Congress to change the basic stonewalling/ride it out dynamic? Or is the behavior of Republican elected officials essentially dictated by their big donors' wishes, no matter how low his approval ratings go? To what extent do the dark money donors view Trump's political survival as important for the continuation and extension of their policy agenda? Optional? Counter-productive at a certain point? If the latter, at what point?
At what point does a Republican elected official in Congress conclude that holding on to the donor money and other support just will not be enough to survive politically in the next election in the face of the unpopularity of the agenda being pursued by the GOP Congress and the President going along for that ride (so long as there is enough in it for him personally)?
And if reaching such conclusion, what then? Stick with the donors' policy agenda wishes in implicit or explicit exchange for the post-election defeat sinecure, if dark money proves unable to buy re-election? Fully break with Trump with the hope/belief it's not too late? Try to have it both ways by verbally putting some distance between themselves and Trump while not coming close to breaking with him or with the big donors' agenda?
Is there any development or event, short of abandoning the substantive policy agenda reflected in the tax legislation, which might impact continued big donor support, through marching orders to the GOP Congress and attempts at media narrative influence which have been flailing badly this past year, for Trump prior to 2020?
Lots of questions. Answers TBD.
Comments
If people are still in the Trump camp, they are lost to the Democratic Party. They refuse to acknowledge the harm done to health care and support theft of money from the middle class via the GOP tax plan. Democrats need to focus on the voters who realize what the GOP is doing. Recent elections have shown that targeting these voters can result in victories.
Cutting health care does not address the opioid crisis. If you read Hillbilly Elegy, you see the Republican solution to the opioid crisis is to address the moral failures of the victims. The goal of the tax cut is to create a deficit large enough to allow for the Republicans to call for slashing Social Security and Medicare. If you telegraph to voters that Democrats are aware of what the GOP is doing, Democrats have an edge.
Blacks and Latinos will have to be told repeatedly that their votes are important via outreach. Democrats will also have get vocal about voter suppression and combat the practice at every turn. Their are enough blacks, whites, and Latinos to increase Democratic numbers in Congress.
538 has Trump approval at 38.7% today. A relatively stable number.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo
by rmrd0000 on Tue, 01/09/2018 - 3:29pm
I don't have any answers for your questions. I'd just like to say that I think this is Rondon's best essay so far and I recommend it.
Also to point out some things from it. Your clip ends at this one suggestion Showing concern is the only way to break the rhetorical polarization. But at the very end, he also suggests the "don't feed the troll" thing is important, in an incredibly eloquent way.
He also very eloquently describes how anger vs. anger gets you not just nothing but a dangerous war-like situation where the populist troll wins, that is what is intended whether unconsciously or not.
Finally, here is the bad flaw I see in his argument that what is happening here is like what happened with Chavez
That 7% , combined with the disapproving is all one needs to boot him out next election!!! That's the swing vote that got him in, and it will take him out. I don't get why he even puts that paragraph in! It ruins the direness of his warnings. . A strong majority in not in support of our 'Chavez', and he's going downhill, not uphill.
His dire warnings are about a majority population that is hungry for the populist to feed them. We don't have that. He's lost the people that helped put him in the White House. It might even be that feeding the troll has actually worked out well in this case!
A third of our population has been voting as conservative as possible for decades, Dems are never going to get them. It's wise standard political practice for any Dem to just write that 3rd off because the majority are not going to vote for someone pandering to sexism, racism, Christian statism and other literal readers of holy texts, live-free-or-die, etc., all the usual Tea Party stuff. The basic reason Trump got elected is some swings thought he was a moderate policy-wise (I.e., I'm gonna fix health insurance, it's gonna be better; MAGA, jobs jobs jobs, reign in immigration so that there's more well paying jobs jobs jobs, he was gonna fix stuff like Wall St.). Thought they bought the currently self-described 'genius" billionaire with outside the box thinking. Those 7% now know they bought a pig in a poke.
Cavaet: keep in mind those 7% have turned against Trump populism. See it didn't work out as promised. That does not mean they will not be voting Republican for other races! These are the swings, the independents. They are looking for someone new and different. I.E., Obama, not Hillary (2008), but then maybe a Republican Congressperson or Senator to balance him out, especially in the case that he turns out as "liberal" as many of this type think Hillary secretly was (the "it takes a village" Hillary who is going have the government tell you how to raise your kids.) But they tried this crazy billionaire Trump guy, gave him a chance, told the pollster will give him a chance, feel ripped off now.
by artappraiser on Wed, 01/10/2018 - 7:31am