Trump and Ryan fear the GOP faces a ‘bloodbath’ in 2018. They may be right.

By artappraiser on Mon, 03/13/2017 - 9:48pm |

Op-ed by Paul Waldman @ The Washington Post, March 13

[....] Ryan’s main concern, at least as he expresses it here, is with the people who deeply want to see the ACA repealed: the Republican base. He and the rest of his party have been terrified of them for the past eight years, so it’s no surprise that the base’s wrath is still foremost in their minds.

But there’s a problem: 2018 is probably going to be a bloodbath for Republicans whether they pass repeal or not.

To understand why, let’s quickly run through the possible scenarios for the midterm elections as they relate to this effort, which will be the most dramatic and vividly emotional of all the legislative battles of the next few years [....]

URL:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2017/03/13/trump-and-ryan-fear-the-gop-faces-a-bloodbath-in-2018-they-may-be-right/

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The Wisconsin lesson: Voters will reward Republicans if they do what they promised

Op-ed by Marc A. Thiessen @ The Washington Post, March 13

by artappraiser on Mon, 03/13/2017 - 9:51pm

Martin Longman, runs Washington Monthly site, predicted in 2013 an out and out racist Republican prez campaign could 'southernize' the rust belt. He blogs at Booman.

I can’t see a scenario where depressed turnout for Republicans would cost them the Senate no matter how severe the depressed turnout, and I can almost say the same thing for the House. Their base of supporters is so much better geographically dispersed than the Democrats, and their gerrymandering and incumbency advantages are such that they can win the House even if millions and millions of more people turn out to vote against them........In truth, I don’t doubt that Americans will turn out in 2018 with a real purpose to take power away from the Republicans. It’s just that the Republicans’ advantages are so incredible at this point that that will simply can’t be translated into results. I can easily see Democratic Senate candidates getting tens of millions more votes in 2018 and still losing a handful of seats without capturing even a single Republican one. Maybe Sen. Dean Heller of Nevada will lose but I doubt any other incumbent Republicans will.

by NCD on Mon, 03/13/2017 - 10:09pm

Is an interesting retort to Waldman, thanks for taking the time to share it.

So far where I do foresee problems for any GOP in Congress should they pass this bill is in the huge increases in premiums that will occur for the pre-Medicare older crowd, because that is a demographic known to come out and vote in mid-terms, even when there aren't issues directly affecting them. It might even be possible that white-haired riots occur before the mid-terms. Especially as there might be ample examples of premium quotes exceeding income, in which case a tax credit is little help over the year of eating cat food waiting for it.

Maybe they will be wise enough to fix that "glitch" reported in the CBO (and by more than a few journalist analysts even before the report came out,) maybe not.

by artappraiser on Tue, 03/14/2017 - 2:20am

I'm confident that Republicans will lose seats, especially in the House, but Longman raises a fair challenge to the bloodbath scenario. The lost of seats may not threaten their majority.

That said, I do see a potential bloodbath if the GOP civil war heats up. When the health care bill fails, there will be recriminations between the pragmatic and ideological factions, and the Freedom Caucus could easily turn against Ryan and the moderate senators. If it gets ugly, right-wingers may refuse to vote for "RINOs," and centrists may refused to vote for racists. Even worse for the Republicans would be a Trump vs establishment battle. It's not hard to imagine Trump venting his wrath against Ryan and McConnell, and the consequences of Trump voters feeling betrayed the GOP establishment would be severe.

by Michael Wolraich on Tue, 03/14/2017 - 11:51am

Good points. Sure beats Dems having to wait for the GOP to unleash the deregulated financial freedom greedfest and Great Recession II.

by NCD on Tue, 03/14/2017 - 2:27pm

It's a happy scenario that I hope is true. But when Christie Todd Whitman said she would vote for Hillary over Trump and other moderate republicans claimed they would never vote for Trump many thought the moderates would abandon the republican party over Trump. It didn't happen. Most of the moderate republicans stuck with the party in spite of their dislike of Trump. Perhaps in this partisan era party trumps all intraparty disagreements. We'll see.

by ocean-kat on Tue, 03/14/2017 - 3:28pm

You know, I've always known that my far left liberal views did not represent the mainstream of American thought. I'm not blind to the reality that surrounds me. I knew there were stupid people, people with very little capacity for rational analysis. I knew there were uneducated people, people who have little factual knowledge and what little facts they thought they had were wrong. I knew racism still exists. I knew sexism and misogyny hadn't been eliminated from American life. But I never thought there was enough stupidity, enough ignorance, enough racism and misogyny to elect a man like Trump.

It appears to me that the republicans have painted themselves into a corner with no way out. Damned if they repeal the ACA, damned if they don't. But will any Trump supporter care? Will any republican? Will there be a blood bath? I don't know. I just don't know anything about Americans anymore.

by ocean-kat on Mon, 03/13/2017 - 11:15pm

You are talking about the 'vox populi', the voice or belief of the people. That can be an enigma.

You have said you are a fast reader, and you may be one of the few here who could handle, and would appreciate the 1000 or so pages of I Will Bear Witness, 1933-1945 by Victor Klemperer.

He observes and records day by day, year by year, the events of the day, and the German 'vox populi' from his or friends social contacts, as Germany sinks into catastrophe, with lies, fears, 'freedom' and race propaganda, which he easily deconstructs, as a intellectual and multilingual cultural historian. He also details a lot on his personal life as a 'non-Aryan' ( Jew) a Christian baptized WW1 front line veteran married to an Aryan. He considers himself a German, and wonders what has happened to them, he says "where have they gone".

He was finally saved from death transport by the fire bombing of Dresden where he lived, allowing him to remove his yellow star and blend in with the city's evacuees. It is an extraordinary record of human behavior under a diabolical authoritarian government.

It was translated from German after his death, and has high reviews at Amazon can be downloaded for free at the Internet Archive.

by NCD on Tue, 03/14/2017 - 2:21am

Thanks for the link. My job as caretaker of a ghost town gives me lots of time for reading. I basically stay around my house waiting for tourists to come. Traffic here is low as Ruby is a non profit and all the owners care about is that enough people show up to pay someone to live here so people don't destroy and vandalize the historic buildings. There is no advertising except for local newspapers doing an occasional article. During the hours we're open I can't do anything even a little noisy because I have to be able to hear the cars driving into the site. That leaves a lot of time for reading as there's not much else I can do while I'm waiting for a tourist to drive in.

by ocean-kat on Tue, 03/14/2017 - 3:38pm

Why release this now? The (Bannon) White House wants Ryan to take the fall for health care? Or?

Breitbart posts audio of Ryan saying he won’t defend Trump

By Cyra Master @ The Hill, 03/13/17 11:22 PM EDT

[....] “I am not going to defend Donald Trump—not now, not in the future,” Ryan says in the audio obtained by Breitbart News.

The October call was for House Republican members, Breitbart said, and it’s unclear who was on the call and whether the participants knew they were being recorded.

“Look, you guys know I have real concerns with our nominee,” Ryan said on the call. “… This is going to be a turbulent month. Many of you on this call are facing tough reelections. Some of you are not. But with respect to Donald Trump, I would encourage you to do what you think is best and do what you feel you need to do. Personally, you need to decide what’s best for you. And you all know what’s best for you where you are." [....]

by artappraiser on Tue, 03/14/2017 - 4:23am

Maybe because: White House analysis of Obamacare repeal sees even deeper insurance losses than CBO

By Paul Demco @ Politico, Updated 03/14/17 12:51 AM EDT

A White House analysis of the GOP plan to repeal and replace Obamacare shows even steeper coverage losses than the projections by the Congressional Budget Office, according to a document viewed by POLITICO on Monday.

The executive branch analysis forecast that 26 million people would lose coverage over the next decade, versus the 24 million CBO estimates. The White House has made efforts to discredit the forecasts from the nonpartisan CBO.

despite current doublespeak from Trump minions?

White House officials late Monday night disputed that the document is an analysis of the bill’s coverage effects. Instead, they say it was an attempt by the Office of Management and Budget to predict what CBO’s scorekeepers would conclude about the GOP repeal plan [....]

by artappraiser on Tue, 03/14/2017 - 4:31am

Briebart may be hitting Ryan because the plan is too soft, the hard right Freedom Caucus seems to be holding out. Republicans may know what this comment said at a WaPo piece on how the health care hit hardest on Trumpanzees.

Here's the issue: THEY WILL NOT KNOW. Nor do they care. They'll just keep blaming Obama, Liberals, Democrats, the Undocumented, Feminists, Muslims, and (insert future scapegoat here) for their problems. They are defined by their incapacity to acknowledge their own faults and/or take ownership for them.

Nor will they learn about any of this because all they listen to is garbage far right radio, watch Fox News, and read far right websites like Breitbart or worse.

They'll just keep wearing their MAGA hats, yelling out support and laughing at the latest outrageous thing Trump and the GOP did, at those immigrant families getting broken up and kicked out of America, at those Muslims getting harassed for their religion...

by NCD on Tue, 03/14/2017 - 11:28am

Breitbart relishing newfound power to torment Paul Ryan

The conservative outlet’s escalating attacks on the House speaker and the GOP health plan are causing severe agitation among the legislation’s backers.

By Josh Dawsey and Hadas Gold

@ Politico. com, 03/14/17 07:38 PM EDT

by artappraiser on Wed, 03/15/2017 - 8:51am

Republicans risk midterm meltdown

Republicans admit they’re growing increasingly concerned about falling into familiar political traps.

By Gabriel Debenedetti

@ Politico.com, 03/15/17 05:16 AM EDT

[....] “This is all a mess, it’s going to stay a mess, it’s a huge undertaking. They have allowed themselves to be trapped by two Washington swamp institutions — reconciliation, as defined by the parliamentarian, and the Congressional Budget Office. It’s very hard to defend Trumpism if you let the swamp define the rules of the game,” said former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, the leader of 1994’s so-called Republican Revolution. “Health is an immensely difficult area, ten times more complicated than national security. We’re going to have to muddle through for a while."

His party, he said, could risk a serious midterm blowback if the health plan isn’t through within the year: “By next Spring, they have to have a health solution clear enough — and implemented enough — that people feel comfortable."

Outside Washington, GOP governors — many of them elected as part of the Class of 2010 — sense the danger as well. Despite agreeing in principle with the idea of repealing and replacing Obamacare, few have been willing to vigorously support the American Health Care Act [....]

by artappraiser on Wed, 03/15/2017 - 9:48am

Paul replaces Cruz as GOP agitator

By Alexander Bolton @ The Hill.com, March 15

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has replaced Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) as the prime conservative agitator in Congress.

Paul is waging a public relations war against the House Republican healthcare reform legislation in the hope that he can bring Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), the measure’s champion, to the negotiating table.

The Kentucky senator is betting that if he can convince a relatively small group of House conservatives to vote against the legislation, it will force House GOP leaders to back away from what he calls “ObamaCare lite.”

“There’s really no negotiating going on. Ryan is giving up nothing until he determines he doesn’t have enough votes. If we get to the point where he doesn’t have enough votes, then he’ll negotiate,” he told The Hill in an interview Tuesday [....]

by artappraiser on Wed, 03/15/2017 - 9:54am

Inside the Trump-Ryan Murder-Suicide Pact

The health-care imbroglio is the first big test of Trumpism. Its contradictions could be hidden during the campaign season. Now, they are coming into sharp relief.

by T.A. Frank @ The Hive @ VanityFair.com, March 15

by artappraiser on Thu, 03/16/2017 - 2:21pm

Looking forward to reading this, AA, thanks. Wondering how these contradictions are overridden by the chaos dimension.

by Bruce Levine on Thu, 03/16/2017 - 3:08pm

coming to mind after I posted this quote on your thread

In theory, Trumpism follows the tradition of the European right, which combines nationalism with support for the welfare state. In practice, Trumpism relies on Donald Trump, who is many things to many people, and the Republican Party, which rejects nationalism (apart from the interventionist sort) and seeks to shrink the welfare state.

that it sort of syncs with Bannon theory, too:

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/03/what-steve-bannon-really-thinks

in case you like, have extra reading time, hah.

I suspect some of the labor types who are pro-Trump instinctively get some of this from all the code words, without knowing everything behind it....

by artappraiser on Thu, 03/16/2017 - 3:20pm

In the News

Russia plays weak hand in Palestine
Russia plays weak hand in Palestine

submitted by PeraclesPlease 9 months ago

The intra-Palestinian meeting in Moscow has precedent

Russia's hosted such meetings in the past, most recently Feb 2019

Russia has long lamented the US' "monopolization" of the peace process & tried to carve out a niche for itself: mediating among the disunited Palestinians/2
— Hanna Notte (@HannaNotte) February 29, 2024

Read the article at https://twitter.com/HannaNotte/status/1763116222256701787

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Mother Jones is Reaching out to Alternative Party Voters
Mother Jones is Reaching out to Alternative Party Voters

submitted by HSG 10 months ago

Here's what I told them: https://halginsberg.com/vote-for-jill-stein-again/

Read the article at https://halginsberg.com/vote-for-jill-stein-again/

2 comments

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Controversial Brazil law curbing Indigenous rights comes...
Controversial Brazil law curbing Indigenous rights comes into force

submitted by artappraiser 11 months ago

Controversial Brazil law curbing Indigenous rights comes into force https://t.co/pCoDg05irX
— Gareth Harris (@garethharr) December 28, 2023

Read the article at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/28/brazil-law-indigenous-land-rights-claim-time-marker?CMP=share_btn_tw

1 comment

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Security Alert: U.S. Embassy Port-au-Prince, Haiti (...
Security Alert: U.S. Embassy Port-au-Prince, Haiti (December 25, 2023)

submitted by artappraiser 11 months ago

Location: U.S. Embassy and residential compounds

Events: Heavy gunfire is occuring around the area of the U.S. Embassy and residential compounds adjacent to the Trutier area of Tabarre. All Embassy personnel have been instructed to remain indoors and shelter-in-place until further notice. All others should avoid the area.

Actions to take:

Avoid the area;

Avoid demonstrations and any large gatherings of people;

Do not attempt to drive through roadblocks; and

If you encounter a roadblock, turn around and get to a safe area.

Read the article at https://ht.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-port-au-prince-haiti-december-25-2023/

3 comments

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Pakistan Is Creating the World’s Next Refugee Crisis
Pakistan Is Creating the World’s Next Refugee Crisis

submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

By The Editorial Board @ Bloomberg.com, December 8, 2023

A mass expulsion of Afghan migrants could destabilize the region and fuel radicalization. The West should pressure Islamabad to change course.

Read the article at https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-12-08/pakistan-s-expulsion-of-afghan-refugees-risks-another-crisis

6 comments

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Internet shut down in Chad
Internet shut down in Chad

submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

All eyes on #Chad right now
Chad has two internet trunks coming into the country: One from the Red Sea via Sudan; the other from Cameroon. Not possible for the totality of the country's internet network to be shut unless done centrally. A lot of rumors swirling; few facts. https://t.co/N6bDJZ2ixO

Read the article at https://x.com/_hudsonc/status/1732891968709992511?s=20

2 comments

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[Economy] where Joe's success falls short
[Economy] where Joe's success falls short

submitted by PeraclesPlease 1 year ago

Read the article at

3 comments

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[CRIME News] 3 loss-prevention employees in Macy’s across...
[CRIME News] 3 loss-prevention employees in Macy’s across the street from Philadelphia City Hall stabbed

submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

BREAKING: Three loss prevention employees in Macy’s across the street from Philadelphia City Hall stabbed, one of them has died from stab wounds, @PhillyPolice sources tell me. Police converged on the store as the three workers were rushed to Jefferson Hospital. pic.twitter.com/4U1eKycL4W

Read the article at https://x.com/KeeleyFox29/status/1731713272942940365?s=20

38 comments

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Former U.S. Ambassador Arrested, Charged With Working As...
Former U.S. Ambassador Arrested, Charged With Working As Secret Agent For Cuba

submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

Former US Ambassador Arrested, Charged With Working As Secret Agent For Cuba https://t.co/LDwo4ZJI1K
— HuffPost (@HuffPost) December 4, 2023

Read the article at https://www.huffpost.com/entry/manuel-rocha-ambassador-arrested-cuba_n_656d1e2ae4b028b0f3d07478

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[War in Israel, Chapter II] UNRWA under scrutiny
[War in Israel, Chapter II] UNRWA under scrutiny

submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

[Chapter I news is HERE, Oct. 7 til today]

You don’t get it.
It’s not about an UNRWA teacher who held an Israeli kid hostage in his house.
It’s all about how for 75 years you have destroyed the future of generations of Palestinians, including my family.
My cousins in Arab countries are still not citizens - not even the… https://t.co/nv6anubGhc
— George Deek (@GeorgeDeek) December 2, 2023

Note 'Community Notes' attached to UNWRA's statement.

Read the article at https://x.com/GeorgeDeek/status/1731020551328579863?s=20

58 comments

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Maduro, Under Pressure, Holds Vote to Annex Territory From...
Maduro, Under Pressure, Holds Vote to Annex Territory From a Neighbor

submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

Imperialism for me but not for thee?

It's wild that Venezuela is now holding a vote on whether 2/3 of Guyana actually belongs to them! Analysts suggest that Modoru may want military action to pump up his sinking popularity.

Could we have a war in South America?!?

"The people who live in Essequibo are largely… pic.twitter.com/QvMEjkkgwy

Read the article at https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/03/world/americas/maduro-vote-essequibo-guyana.html

6 comments

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[Where is the GOP headed?] Divisions leave Florida’s House...
[Where is the GOP headed?] Divisions leave Florida’s House Republicans powerless

submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

The lack of a cohesive delegation has allowed attention-seeking lawmakers to act on their own.

McCarthy: “You have [Rep. Matt] Gaetz, who belongs in jail…”

Gaetz: “Tough words from a guy who sucker punches people in the back. The only assault I committed was against Kevin’s fragile ego.”https://t.co/LctPuz6Pcf

Read the article at https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/29/divisions-leave-floridas-house-republicans-powerless-00129200

10 comments

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‘She got so mad at me’: book on the ‘Squad’ details AOC-...
‘She got so mad at me’: book on the ‘Squad’ details AOC-Pelosi clashes

submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

By Martinn Pengelly in Washington DC for TheGuardian.com, Nov. 30

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tells Ryan Grim life in Congress ‘completely transformed’ after Democratic leader stepped down

Read the article at https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/nov/30/squad-book-aoc-nancy-pelosi?CMP=share_btn_tw

15 comments

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US health insurers Humana, Cigna in talks to merge -source
US health insurers Humana, Cigna in talks to merge -source

submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

@ Reuters, Nov. 29

Read the article at https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/us-health-insurers-humana-cigna-talks-merge-wsj-2023-11-29/

3 comments

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Central Africa’s dinosaur regimes and the art of coup-...
Central Africa’s dinosaur regimes and the art of coup-proofing

submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

"Both the AU and the intl community place more weight on whether elections are held than whether they are free and fair. Sanctions/expulsions occur when there is a coup but not necessarily when elections are rigged or if an “institutional coup” occurs." https://t.co/m9dNimJP0D
— Cameron Hudson (@_hudsonc) November 28, 2023

Read the article at https://africanarguments.org/2023/11/central-africas-dinosaur-regimes-and-the-art-of-coup-proofing/

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