Poll tactics & kissin' cuzzins

    Growing up, every time there was a close football game, I got to hear Frank Gifford or Dan Meredith exclaim how a tie is like kissing your cousin. (My initial reaction was "which one?" some of my cousins were pretty damn cute.)

    At this stage in New Hampshire, it looks like Bernie's playing for a tie - roughly 2 point spread for the last 2 months, and within 5 points since August. 

    The sad news for Bernie fans is that's not good enough - at this point it's dialed into everyone's expectations that New Hampshire's Sanders' back yard, that he should win - it's no longer an "upset". 

    Worse, with Iowa 1 month out, the 2-month 17% difference in Clinton's favor has only nudged up to 15%. And South Carolina is a foregone conclusion, some 40% difference.

    Obama narrowed the polls from 22 points on Jan 2 to 5 points on Jan 8 (2 days after Iowa). But it's also important to remember that Obama's presence represented a new age in racial relations and equality along with a turn to youth, while Sanders' campaign has no overriding compelling symbolism aside from the fight between worker equality and Wall Street, i.e. a fairly commonplace campaign issue.

    Hillary also found out after New Hampshire that she was out of cash, which both cramped her game plan for February, and dented her reputation as a fiscally responsible grownup (plus playing into the complacent "inevitable" tag). This year expect that Clinton will have her finances in good order, including her recent push to fill coffers (plus this year is post-Citizens' United, so sugar daddies & mommies can support PAC efforts without limit).

    Another key difference from 2008 is that the contests are a month later - 8 years ago, the first 4 contests plus Florida and Michigan took place in January, and there's arguably more time for people to pay attention in early days of the new year. Only 3 NE states vote in March - Mass, Vermont, Maine - while California, where Sanders might be expected to do well, has been pushed from Super Tuesday back to June. 9 of the March contests are in the South, along with Texas, Oklahoma & Missouri, roughly half the states where Clinton's likely to do better.

    Curious anyone else's thought on the roadmap & timeframe. 

    Update: The NY Times has a piece noting that New Hampshire Independents can vote in either primary - which potentially could hurt Bernie if they want to damage Trump more than weigh in on the Democratic side.


    I'm votin' for whoever's older.

    So should you.

    Young people are idiots.


    Aretha Franklin's old - have a little respect.

    Ah Quinn... Right On!

    Loved Aretha the first time I saw her perform down on Beale Street in Memphis in 1966.

    Thanks for the video. Saw it live.

    Happy New Year!


    Well yeah, now they're idiots. But when we were young we were the smartest people on earth and we had all the answers.

    I've been meaning to ask you - what did you do with them? You were in charge of looking after the stash, right?

    I read an article a few days ago calling for Hillary to drop out of the race and endorse Bernie. I thought it was an Onion piece, but the writer was serious. I think it's premature for anyone not named Martin O'Mally to get out and endorse anyone. This long primary season has drained those covering it just as much as those running.

    Yeah, I saw articles 2-3 months ago calling for her to drop out. Maybe even back in Jul/Aug when the email scandal hit. There's a background of crazy on the Internet that tinged a lot of discussions.

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