David Seaton's picture

    What Now? (theme for today)

    Theme for today: Now that the Soviet Union no longer exists and Osama bin Laden is dead, who will take on the indispensable role of the "official villain" or "bad guy", for the "indispensable nation", without whom it will be difficult or impossible for the USA to justify its invading small countries and thereby justify in turn its massive military expenditures?

    News Flash: Now it appears that the Seals could have taken bin Laden alive... this doesn't look good, if true.

    Update: I get the strange feeling that Osama bin Laden was like a bottle of champagne that people keep in the refrigerator to open on some future, unspecified "special occasion". Since he was obviously under Pakistani surveillance and probably has been for years, I'm interested in understanding the timing of this great day.

    The "mysterious force" that seems to be at work here is the collapse of supply side economics, otherwise known as "voodoo" economics or Reaganomics, which has led to a situation where the USA must cut costs and raise taxes or go the way of the Wiemar Republic. This is very upsetting for those few who have enough money to influence public opinion, such as the Koch brothers, Murdoch and of course Trump, plus many other less conspicuous billionaires. Nothing more mysterious than that.

    Recently added to this poisonous brew is the slow motion collapse of America's position in the center of the world's oil production, the Middle East, otherwise known as the "Arab Spring", which is being sold as a triumph of our "values", but which is, in fact, an unqualified disaster for the USA both economically and geopolitically.

    My tentative reading of the bin Laden "job" is that Obama was looking weak and now needed some of what Dubya called "political credit" in order to raise taxes, cut entitlements and declare "victory" in Afghanistan and Iraq and get out ASAP, because the USA is broke.

    Bin Laden had been located for quite some time and like the bottle of champagne kept in the fridge for special occasions that I mention, now was the time to uncork it and drink it... get people feeling good before major surgery.

     Crossposted from: http://seaton-newslinks.blogspot.com/

    Comments

    Okay, look David, there are so many conclusion to be reached deductively without having the entire file, let us take a walk down logical lane:

    1. Politically, you can only gain from killing this bastard who would appear miraculously on videos flaunting his 'freedom'.

    2. Diplomatically, it could have been that Bush/Cheney who gave up the search a long time ago, wished to keep Pakistan happy while they pursued their fraudulent foray into Iraq.

    3. Diplomatically, Obama said screw this! This was the time to send Pakistan a message. It has been clear that Pakistan had been leaking--officially or unofficially--important info to al Qaeda and that Pakistan could not be trusted any longer! so in August of last year, intelligence was not leaked to the Pakistanis

    4. If this were a purely political measure, Obama was an idiot because it would have been best to wait until September of next year to ensure an election.

    5. When the iron is hot, place the batter on the griddle. Not before.

    6. Carpe Diem.

    7. Every goddamn repub will come up with every frickin challenge to this successful attack that could possibly match the insanity in this country.

    the end


    If this were a purely political measure, Obama was an idiot because it would have been best to wait until September of next year to ensure an election.

    Unless, of course, he was under some immediate political pressure that he knows about and that we don't... yet.  IMHO he has been acting strangely "un-presidential" of late.


    Jesus H. Christ David! Post hoc ergo propter hoc can apply to any conspiracy theory.

    Okay, Barack did all this to hide the concern over his birth certificate.

    LET IT GO!


    Frankly, I think that publishing his birth certificate under the pressure of a thuggish clown like Trump, followed by a frat-house roasting of said clown at the correspondent's dinner, was distinctly un-presidential. I get the feeling that "the Donald" of all people has managed to get under POTUS's skin and I find this curiouser and curiouser.


    Is there any consistency at all to your stuff? You yammer on about fascism in the US, and then a President comes out and kicks the leading Fascist square in the cubes, and you find it un-presidential. But if he DIDN'T fight back, you'd go on about how Obama was too weak or secretly in league with Trump or some such nonsense.

    I'm half-convinced you've moved from Buffoonville to Looneytown these past months. Let's see.... There was the rise of Beck and how he's Murdoch's puppet.... And before that, the Jews the Jews they're everywhere, oh those tiresome Jews..... And of course, Assange and Wikileaks, which was driven by the Jews. Or China. Or Murdoch..... And now this. Hidden pressures and un-presidential actions.

    And in EACH case you posit mysterious forces behind the events. Which is fine. Because sometimes, the world does have actual conspiracies. Sometimes, what we see doesn't add up because there are real other forces in behind.

    But the thing is, you have to provide some THEORY or some EVIDENCE or some PATTERN that provides traction for people. That way, your idea can stimulate people to do some actually thinking or researching. and possibly, be proven or disproven.

    But you just throw out one vaguely-formed conspiracy after another, and when events change, you shuffle it all around.

    Right now, it just sounds like you've run out of things to say, but still want to have some excitement, and so you write blogs, completely gleefully aiming to instigate, and so, you conjure up mysterious bogeyman.

    It's like you're becoming Dagblog's Beck, only without the substance.


    and without the awesome visual aids.


    The "mysterious force" you mention is the collapse of supply side economics otherwise known as "voodoo" economics or Reaganomics, which has led to a situation where the USA must cut costs and raise taxes or go the way of the Wiemar Republic. This is very upsetting for those few who have enough money to influence public opinion, such as the Koch brothers, Murdoch and of course Trump, plus many other less conspicuous billionaires. Nothing more mysterious than that.

    Recently added to this poisonous brew is the slow motion collapse of America's position in the center of the world's oil production, the Middle East, otherwise known as the "Arab Spring", which is being sold as a triumph of our "values", but which is, in fact, an unqualified disaster for the USA both economically and geopolitically.

    My tentative reading of the bin Laden "job" is that Obama was looking weak and now needed some of what Dubya called "political credit" in order to raise taxes, cut entitlements and declare "victory" in Afghanistan and Iraq and get out ASAP, because the USA is broke.

    Bin Laden had been located for quite some time and like the bottle of champagne kept in the fridge for special occasions that I mention, now was the time to uncork it and drink it... get people feeling good before major surgery.


    Nah. If he'd been holding this card waiting for the right time to play it, before the midterms would have been optimal. Or, alternatively, closer to the next election.


    Unless it is part of his plan to lose the election!


    Genius!


    Quite the contrary. If Obama can get his budget passed, he has a much better chance of winning 2012. Like the man said, "it's the economy stupid". Bush Sr. won a real war in record time, but still lost the presidency to Clinton. The popularity bounce from bin Laden will help him now to get his budget passed... so it is now, not later that he needs what Bush Jr. called "political credit".


    I'm not too sure on that. I hate to quote Peter King ... but he has (IMO) a pretty honest assessment of the political risk involved.

    This was by no means a "slam dunk" ... what would have happened if this went wrong or Bin Laden hadn't been there? There would be zero room to recover if Obama made the play at the height of campaign season. Obama *had* to be playing the short - the up side isn't nearly as beneficial as the down side would have been devastating.


    It should be noted though, I hold open the strong possibility that Obama simply saw the opportunity to eliminate Bin Laden and took it as soon as it was possible to bring the mission together. I am not convinced this was an operation that Obama had the flexibility to time precisely with his election strategy. I think operational leeway was measured in days - maybe weeks.


    You have to hand it to Obama he took the chance to win the prize. However I think bin Laden was set up. All the business about the painstaking detective work following the "courier" is all horseshit IMHO. At best somebody in the Pakistani military collected the reward ($25M?) and blew the whistle. More probably bin Laden had been there -- a sitting duck -- under house arrest for years and now was the time for the ISI to auction him off... I think most of the story exists to cover the Pakistanis from Salafist wrath.


    I think I said that somewhere along the line.


    There is probably some truth in the courier story because otherwise it would too easily unravel given the amount of press that will be investigating the "behind the story" leads.  Where your scenarios have some plausibility is in the lead up to what drew the Americans to target the compound in the first place, and then build those replicas for training exercises.  It is possible that someone in the ISI or the military gave confirming evidence way back when, and for obvious reasons didn't want that fact to be made public.  But even then, from the administration's perspective, it could have still been a set up.  At this point it is still reasonable to assume that the administration was not 100% sure it was actually OBL in the compound.  And if that was the case, then they didn't know that what was actually in the champagne bottle was actually champagne.  It could have been turpentine. Not something one wants to be opening just before a big, critical budget fight.


    They supposedly have the guy who built the compound in Pakistan, as an inmate in Gitmo. The Pakistani ISI supposedly searched the compound early on. Strange goings on.


    including this update on the article

    Update: If these CBS satellite pictures are labeled accurately, ISI couldn’t have done a raid on the compound in 2003, because it was still a field. (h/t RS) Which I guess leaves the question why ISI wants to claim they were close to al-Libi in 2003?


    The Donald certainly didn't get under his skin. My take is Obama tried to time everything in the hopes of burying it.


    I have to admit that I am a bit cynical... I have come to believe that just as Jerusalem is the soul Judaism and Rome the soul of Christianity and Mecca the soul of Islam, so Washington is the soul of bullshit... That if Diogenes came to Washington asking directions, my advice to him would be to buy a dog.


    What makes you think Obama is like Bu$h...a one man show?

    I suspect this was just the tip of an iceberg. He may have been lining his duckys up and this was just the intro for what he's going to do next.

    He might just surprise the hell out of me..the one who has given up all hope..and start doing things unheard of but necessary at the chagrin of the GOPer's. I'm wonder if the kid gloves are coming off and he's going to put the GOPer's on notice and start delegating his authority, demanding their cooperation...bye-bye partisanship - they had their chance and blew it.

    And I wonder if he's going after State governors and legislators over they mudding up the public's Constitutional protections and rights at the state level. It would be interesting to see Holder and his bunch in front of the Supreme court with state governor's and legislators arguing state law doesn't enjoy protection by the 10th to trump federal law protecting the public's interest on the national level...any protection at the federal level filters down to the state as well - no exceptions.

    Perhaps Obama has reached his boiling point and is getting ready to let off some steam.


    Wonder away my friend... I fear you will be disappointed yet another time.


    The thing about the "bottle of champagne" theory is that given the landscape presidents face, one would be hard-pressed to find a moment where the president couldn't be said to be pulling it out at that particular moment for political reasons.  Right before an election, right after an election his party got hammered, right before some big legislation, rising gas prices, etc etc.  In other words, if one embraces the champagne theory, chances are that no matter when the president choses to give the go order, he or she will be reinforcing the basic premises of the theory.


    That's why it's such a brilliant analogy, dude.

    When is it NOT a good time for champagne, huh?


    My judgment is that the budget fight is the decisive battle for Obama. Everything hangs on that... imagine if the dollar goes blooey and real inflation sets in... not even a president as popular as an FDR could survive something like that. This is the one he has to win. Obama needs all the popularity and charisma he can muster to win that battle. That is the essence of my "champagne theory".


    David, read this old piece from Ezra Klein:

    what’s always seemed obvious was that the time to raise the debt ceiling was back in December, when Democrats and Republicans jointly agreed to increase the deficit by $850 billion in order to extend the Bush tax cuts and add some further cuts on top of that. When I asked Democrats about this at the time, they kept telling me that Republicans needed to learn the awful and awesome responsibility that was governing. “Let the Republicans have some buy-in on the debt. They’re going to have a majority in the House,” said Harry Reid. “I don’t think it should be when we have a heavily Democratic Senate, heavily Democratic House and a Democratic president.”

    If the democrats wanted to raise the debt ceiling without spending cuts, they would have done so back in December. But they wanted bi-partisan cover for spending cuts. They wanted ... spending cuts. But not without Republican buy-in. They didn't want to be left holding the bag.

    So what is going on is not a 'budget fight'. It's just political theatre. Both parties want cuts, the GOP will try to gut Medicaid as much as possible and then vote against it. And the Dems will heave a sad sigh and vote the cuts through, "BECAUSE WE HAD NO CHOICE".

    They want it to look like their hands were tied to avoid the blame. And liberals will duly sigh and accept that they had no choice.

    And so it goes round, again and again.

    See - this is the problem with you fabricating conspiracy theories right and left. You miss out the ones right in front of your nose, the ones that are open secrets, so open they're just common knowledge.

    Not that I have anything against champagne, though...


    A friend of mine had lunch with an important official from Spain's central bank (Banco de España) today and he told me that they are very worried about the American debt... very pessimistic about it, very somber. Apparently they think America's politicians are fiddling while Rome burns.


    Oh there are but I don't think that's the point. The point is for the republicans to be forced to also take some of the blame and heat when the world markets get nervous.

    And I think also that the Libertarian republicans are making the rank and file nervous, so they will begin to distance themselves from the Libertarians


    As to whether Ossama needed to be killed or could have been captured, I just heard on the news that a government spokesman now says that Ossama was not armed when first confronted. He said that Ossama's wife made a move towards the Seal and was shot in the leg but not killed. He said that Ossama was then shot and killed.
     Other reports the last few days say the Seals practiced this operation intensely. They are said to be really good at their job and I do not doubt that for an instant. It is said they are trained to visually I.D. people and make quick decisions as to danger so they will not shoot innocents. As "Our most elite special ops team" they can be expected to follow orders.
     Until the next round of information is released further clouding the story with enough bullshit that anyone can believe anything that they choose that makes them feel good, if that is their priority, I think we must conclude that the mission was to perform a non-judicial execution despite the earlier statement that if Ossama could have been taken alive he would have been.
     I am pretty sure that Ossama was not killed to keep him from embarrassing me, so I am naturally curios who needed protection that badly. I am guessing that the answer includes people on all sides and in quite a few countries.
     Also, as to electoral strategy, Obama has no doubt learned well that it is highly unpopular trying to obey our laws and international laws by giving an accused terrorist held in our custody a public trial. Much better if they just go away quietly. Or, with a bang if necessary.


    It does, however, appear to have been a firefight, even if OBL himself was not firing a weapon.  The Seals were given a mission: get OBL.  They are also trained to basically get in and get out as quickly as possible.  So as soon as there was armed resistance, I would guess that the option to take him dead was on the table, armed or not armed. The Seals were not in a position to do a standoff.  Although my guess is that most of those on the US side preferred the outcome that happened. 


    Sorry, if they could have taken him alive and they didn't, they fucked up big time. If the orders were to bring him back dead or dead, we are looking at a crime. Certainly a live bin Laden would do more damage to Al Qaeda than a martyred one... unless, unless. Why would they prefer him dead? One is so used to American fuck ups by now, that I suppose it is just simpler to think of this as one more of them.


    See my response below. But I will add:  Right now there is no evidence it was a "fuck up."  OBL admited he mastermined the 9/11 attacks.  The US had the right to bring him in to stand trial.  OBL made the decision to surround himself with people who would resist his seizure with guns.  Once that happened the Seals had to bring the mission to a close as soon as possible.  Every second is another second that one of them could have been killed.  So until there is evidence that there was no armed resistance, then no crime can be said to have been committed.


    No armed resistance by anyone? A guard shot at a SEAL so the SEAL had to shoot OBL in the head? We are into low thresholds. (First reports said OBL had a gun and was holding his wife, later reports said he was unarmed, not holding anyone. Will be hard to get the right evidence.)


    One of the best ways to get the American people on your side is to get The Bad Guy(s)™.


    I would say your newsflash is incorrect.  The fact that he was unarmed doesn't mean he could have been taken alive.  What evidence is needed is show that the Seals could have taken him alive without any greater risk to any of the Seals.  At this moment, that doesn't appear to be the case.  One way to look at it is that the Seal who fired the shot is the same as a SWAT sniper who takes out a kidnapper even though the kidnapper is just pacing about and not actually threatening the lives of indiviudals.  It is a matter of bringing the operation to a close as quickly as possible.


    "I would say your newsflash is incorrect."

    Of course you would and you may be correct. Like I said, there is enough bs being thrown out that anyone can pick and choose that which justifies how they want to feel about the issue if that is how they want to deal with the way our government makes deisions and takes actions in our names.

     Of course you would and you may be correct, but like I said, there is enough bs


    David Dayen was comparing some versions this morning, noting that some of the differences were likely just early mistakes or something.


    I think taking OBL alive would have been worth risking the lives of a few Seals, that is what they are for, they volunteer for this stuff. OBL in Guantanamo would have deflated his followers... the story as it is coming out, will only inflame them.


    Trope - see the NYT:

    Leon E. Panetta, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, said in an interview with NBC News on Tuesday that the troops’ orders were to kill Bin Laden. “But it was also, as part of their rules of engagement, if he suddenly put up his hands and offered to be captured, then they would have the opportunity, obviously, to capture him,” he said.

    This was a kill mission. It was a military assault to eliminate an enemy. And by the laws of war if the enemy surrenders you cannot legally kill him. It appears he did not make any signs of surrender, so it was permissible to kill him. So there isn't anything fishy about what happened (apart from sovereignty issues re Pakistan), there isn't anything to wonder about here as regards the intentions and aims of the mission.

    This wasn't an act of justice. Justice was not done, in any serious sense of that term. It was an act of war. An enemy was eliminated. I personally regret that we continue to see counter-terrorism as warfare - subjecting all of society to martial law - rather than regarding it as police action subject to criminal law. But that is the world we live in.

    You seem to pretend that this was a police action subject to the norms of "capture, but permission to kill in self-defence". That was clearly not the case, and pretending it was is to pretend that we don't live in a society still governed by martial law.


    I may be one of the least jingoistic people here. But Osama "declared war" on half a dozen western countries, mine included. He also went fatwa-shopping until he found a cleric who ruled he would be permitted to use nuclear weapons on a western city if he could obtain them. Even if he hadn't already boasted of killing thousands, I think it would have been legitimate to kill him just to seize the 10 computers and five hard drives he had in his compound. The global war on terror has been largely a sham and a pretext, but the war with bin Laden remained very real. And he started it.


    It doesn't sound like they had to kill him to get the computers and hard drives. He was unarmed and they were, what, 96 highly trained navy seals. Maybe he is superman, but still, should have been manageable.

    Beyond that, I don't have a settled opinion on the whole concept of declaring war on private citizens. You yourself don't seem comfortable with the idea - what's with the scare quotes around ""declare war""? Did he or did he not declare war?Trope does not seem comfortable with the notion - otherwise he wouldn't tie himself in knots trying to marry the evidence with the idea that this was not a summary execution. The administration does not seem comfortable with this idea, at least in the inital briefing by Brennan. Now Panetta has cleared things up a bit, but Obama's statement, "justice has been done", is clearly not meant as a factual statement, it seems.

    Can I declare war on a country tomorrow and by that simple act cede my basic civil rights that private citizens usually have? And if we can just declare war on private citizens, should we not declare war - not "declare war", but really declare war - on Mexican drug cartels? What is the standard here? That the private citizens have political motives? That they be a sufficient danger to the state/people?

    Those aren't rhetorical questions. I might be fine with the idea of a war on Bin Laden the individual. But I do have a problem with the fact that all these lines are getting blurred - acts of war vs police actions, criminal justice vs military justice vs martial law vs abandonment of even basic principles of justice in the name of necessity through the anti-terror laws. We have not defined who we are at war with. That is problem number one. We have also not clearly defined the scope of that war  - whose rights now must be ignored in the name of the greater good. That is problem number two. We also generally don't really seem to care about any of these issues - as your and Trope's comments show. That is problem number three.


    I agree. By all appearances, we went in to kill him and had no intention of allowing him to survive. The JSOC teams are HIGHLY skilled at extracting targets they want to keep alive for interrogation. And the guy didn't even have a gun. It really does seem a bit of a stretch to argue justice was our primary objective here.

    I also totally agree this should be handled as a criminal issue, not a warfare one. If there isn't a recognized state we're fighting - there isn't a war.


    Glad to have some company on this side of the issue, kgb.

    One quibble, it realy isn't a matter of 'appearance' as you seem to imply. It's not even debatable. Panetta said explicitly that the troops’ orders were to kill Bin Laden.

    We don't need to try to reconstruct intentions and aims from evidence of what happened. The head of the CIA, the man running the mission, said orders were to kill. (See the NYT link above)


    In terms of moral righteousness stirring up Mideast outrage, our killing of bin Laden is no worse than bin Laden's whacking Massoud in Afghanistan - basically an act of war, though I guess you could say the Al Qaeda guys would have no way of capturing Massoud, but doubt that entered their heads.

    But yes, running helicopters in it sounds like we could have easily evacuated bin Laden for trial. But we're beyond all the rules now.


    Here on Swiss TV, they were comparing this mission (unfavorably) to Israel's extraction of Eichmann from Argentina in order to try him in 1960. That's the most apt comparison, I find.


    I used that one earlier in the day myself.

    I'm also amazed at the seeming lack of curiosity about things like - where's Bin Laden's dialysis machine or whatever he needed for kidney failure? And did the inside of the house look like someone born in the House of Saud? 


    The Guardian's Declan Walsh has a bit of that; lots of neighbors describing the compound (sure doesn't sound like any million-dollar digs, no air conditioning, etc.) .  But the practical bit here brought some ot down to...real life considerations:

    "Bin Laden's erstwhile neighbours, now in the gaze of the world's media, congregated outside his house. Some seemed angry, others bemused. One bearded man scolded his friends for speaking to the foreign press; others seemed to relish the attention, presenting themselves for detailed interviews about their brushes with the neighbour they never knew. A few displayed pro-Osama bravado. "I would have opened fire on the Americans myself if I had to defend him!" declared one man.

    Others worried about more material problems. "It's going to destroy property prices in this area," muttered one."

    There goes the neighborhood....


    On The Takeaway, they noted that the compound was very similar to others in the area, and a neighbor thought property values would be going up. They also noted that the "West Point" nearby was not much more than a prep school.


    Beats me; Walsh's link said differently.  I don't know what The Takeaway is; I'm assuming you think they/it are pretty credible?  And really, I just thought that the remark was so unintentionally ironic, given all the conversations many in the West are having.


    Other officials have made conflicting statements ... not terribly plausible ones IMO, but still.


    Thanks. Who made these conflicting statements?


    Brennan.

    Yet just 24 hours before the White House acknowledged that bin Laden had been unarmed, Obama's chief counterterrorism adviser, John Brennan, said: "If we had the opportunity to take bin Laden alive, if he didn't present any threat, the individuals involved were able and prepared to do that."

    Panetta is not sounding very convincing on the posed threat either:

    Asked about the final confrontation with bin Laden, Panetta said: "I don't think he had a lot of time to say anything." The CIA chief told PBS NewsHour, "It was a firefight going up that compound. ... I think it - this was all split-second action on the part of the SEALs."

    Panetta said that bin Laden made "some threatening moves that were made that clearly represented a clear threat to our guys. And that's the reason they fired."

    Bear in mind that the revised story has Panetta monitoring the video feeds and providing real-time narration for the WH principles. He should know definitively not "think".

    And just for fun. Bin Laden's 12 year old daughter says we captured him alive and then executed him.


    Others say one of bin Laden's bodyguards killed him. Who knows? Maybe like Murder on the Orient Express, they *ALL* did it.


    Who is making that assertion?


    Inspector Poirot.


    Okay, thanks for digging up all that.

    None of that strikes me as conflicting with Panetta's statement of the mission orders. There is no conflict between receiving an order to kill and killing in the course of a fire-fight.

    And there is no conflict between an order to kill and making provisions for the scenario where the enemy surrenders. Actually he HAD to make such provisions. Or at least SAY they made such provisions. Otherwise they are in flagrant violation of the Laws of War whereby declaring that no quarter be given (i.e. not accepting the "surrender at discretion" of the enemy) is strictly forbidden. Brennan had no option but to say what he said.


    I suppose Brennan was ambiguous enough to be read a few ways. I thought it came off like he was quickly rolled out to make that statement as a walk-back to Panetta. I really don't trust any of their statements at this point.

    Isn't shooting an unarmed person also a no-go by the laws of war?


    Re Brennan - that statement was originally made at the monday morning briefing, preceding Panetta's statement. So it couldn't have been a walk-back.

    Re the rules of engagement, under the Law of armed conflict as I understand it, no, shooting an unarmed person is not forbidden. Hostile intent on the part of the target is enough. I.e. if you don't want to get shot you need to clearly indicate your unconditional surrender.


    I think the order was to kill bin Laden no matter what he did, because in a trial he would have talked about his contacts with the CIA during the 80s.


    @ Kgb: Re bin Laden's daughter saying he was captured alive, then executed, the Al-Arabiya report is quoting senior Pakistani security officials. In other words, the ISI.

    They are also claiming nobody in the compound returned fire. These are the people the U.S. didn't trust with advance knowledge of the raid. I would take anything they say with a very large grain of salt.


    They should have taken these people with them... I'm sure we will be seeing more of the daughter on Al Jazeera.


    That's what the extra chopper was for, until its hard landing.


    It was a busted chopper that ruined Jimmy Carter, and a busted chopper may do it for Obama. This young girl, only 12 years old, will tell her story on every Arab TV and radio station... It will be heartrending.... very bad... who are people going to believe? Who do you think?


    As I said, this is the ISI's version of what she has to say. They've pre-emptively declared they won't let U.S. officials interview her. There's a high-stakes game of chicken going on here.

    I think ISI is really worried about what's on those hard drives. Dontcha think? Note that the SEALS opted to take the computers and leave the 12-year-old behind. Smart choice!


    From your NYT article:

    “But this is a guy who’s extremely dangerous,” he said. “If he’s nodding at someone in the hall, or rushing to the bookcase or you think he’s wearing a suicide vest, you’re on solid ground to kill him.”

    Other experts noted that the members of the Navy Seals faced difficult conditions, moving through dim rooms under gunfire, and needing to make a split-second judgment about whether Bin Laden posed a threat.

    “They say he was unarmed now, but did the Seals know he was unarmed?” said Scott L. Silliman, an expert on wartime legal doctrine at Duke University Law School. “It was in the dark. They were wearing goggles.”

    There is really no difference I can see between the Seals doing what they did and the police special units doing a similiar action on a drug house where there is armed resistance going on.  The big difference is one occuring on US soil and one occurring on foreign soil.  In the former we use the local, state and federal law enforcement agencies, whereas on foreign soil, we use military forces.  Probably a better comparison is when the FBI is attempting to "bring to justice" those deemed domestic threat/terrorists.  Can anyone say Ruby Ridge. 

    In the end, the SWAT team putting a bullet through the eye of some citizen who has resisted arrest has in effect declared war on that individual.  There are of course specific things about powers of government tied to the declaration of war, which is differenent from a more usage by individuals.  And we need to work those out.

    The lines between all of these are getting blurred, but in part that is because the threats themselves blur those lines.  If a terror cell is planning an action similiar to those that occurred in the US and Spain, but much of the operational planning and support is occuring in countries where the target countries don't have jurisdiction, what are they suppose to do if working with the likes of the international banking system to freeze assets, etc aren't going to be effective. 

    I would disagree that any of my comments indicate that I don't care about (1) the definition of this "war," and (2) whose rights must be ignored in the name of the greater good.  What it seems is that we both care about this issue but disagree on the exact answers to (1) and (2).  That doesn't mean I don't care about the issues. 

    I would argue that there are NGOs and loosely affiliated individuals which pose a threat to the US (or any other country).  Some of these are domestic, in that they are citizens are the core of the leadership and operatives. Some are foreign.  In the effort to address all of these threats, it is impossible to give some clean one sentence: "we are at war with X."  I would point to the international black market in nuclear weapons.  Who are we at war with here.  But to address it we need both law enforcement agencies across the globe working together, and sometimes the use of military personnel to step in for specific operations. 

    In the process, we need to balance the rights of individuals with the greater good.  Or in this recent case, the rights of states and their sovereignty and the greater good.  Sometimes the situation is clear cut, other times it is blurry.  I agree with the Isreali interrogator I heard long ago who said torture should remain illegal, and that if the interrogator believed the situation demanded it, then he or she should be willing to go before his or her peers in a trial and say this is why I broke the law.  

    What we have is world that is in some ways the same as it always has been, violent and dangerous, but in other ways have become increasingly complex.  The government must deal with the Timothy McVeighs of the country, the terrorist cells, the Russian mob and the Columbian cartels.  At the same time must operate with various states who have various levels of willingness to cooperate and ability to cooperate.   They are dealing with bomb threats and cyber attacks and bank accounts and stolen plutonium. 

    Much of this is not war in the traditional sense, but I tend to think that these are very serious threats. And that governments also use these very serious threats as a way to illegitately decrease the rights of citizens.  And at the same time there are times when rights must be given up or suspended temporarily or modified for the greater good.  It is all messy.   I do care that we continually address these issues, but I don't think there is ever going to be a point when we can say "there it is all clearly defined for every situation. This is war and that is a police action, etc etc." 


    Trope, I swear I believe that if there were a comment thread in which everybody agreed that Obama was 98% correct you would jump in and argue that he was 99.95 correct and give reasons why he might be 100%.
     And yes, I can say Ruby Ridge, but if you say Ruby Ridge represented justice or even an attempt at justice, then I have to say that you are either uninformed, have a grossly perverted sense of justice, or you are a flaming idiot.


    if you noticed, i put "bring to justice" in quotes. The point being that there is a lot grey area when some arm of the legal system is attempting to apprehend those who are resisting with weapons and putting the life of those representing the government at risk, as well as innocent civilians, in harm's way. At what point does mistakes made become the responsibility of the resisters, etc.  Those who are attempting to carry out "justice" have a right to protect their own lives at some point.  When SWAT teams go into a armed resistance, they are basically on a shoot to kill mission - unless the resisters suddenly all surrender.  But under normal circumstances they don't have to first prove the person they are shooting to kill is armed or not.  The point is to incapacitate the threat. 

    I would say that the definition of what is justice is one of the top three slippery terms in the human language.  I have my "sense" of what it is, and my intellectual understandings, and so on.  But as the legal system in this country demonstrates, our collective understanding of what it is and isn't is a continuously unfolding thing.  So was action taken in such a way that the interests of justice were served? 

    Based on my assessment (with all its assumptions etc), the evidence seems to say the Seals acted in accordance with rules of engagement given the parameters of their mission. All the talk about how they could taken him alive if they wanted to ignores that this was not their primary mission - it was take him down and out of commission.  If he and his folks surrendered. Fine.  If not then to achieve the mission as quickly as possible with the least amout of risk to those performing the operation.  It is that last part which alters the scenario.  They most certainly could have extracted him alive, but in the play out of such an operation this would have meant increasing the risk level to the Seals.  They weren't going to do that, so OBL got a bullet through the eye.  To say that justice wasn't served here is to state that one believes that the Seals needed to increase their risk personally in order to ensure OBL stayed alive.  It is a legitimate argument, but not one with which I agree.

    Now if legitimate evidence surfaces to change things, then I would reassess my take. 

    If I think that Obama deserves credit for that extra 1.5%, and I have what I believe are legitimate reasons for believing that, then I will say so.  If you want to take the approach of discarding the reasons for considering the 1.5% simply because you have what you believe is consensus on the 98%, then go ahead.  Unlike what some might believe, I do care that we work at understanding how we conduct our wars/police actions, and where the lines need to be drawn between the interests of the individual vs the interests of the common good.  That 1.5% is cases such as this are critical and important.


    "...if there were a comment thread in which everybody agreed that Obama was 98% correct..."

    Of course, none of you are doing that here; what most of you are doing instead is arguing that  Obama be considered a war criminal.


    There is a difference between this and Ruby Ridge - here the mission was to kill, unless the target unconditionally surrendered. At Ruby Ridge the mission was to capture or kill if necessary in self-defence. This is a military action taking out an enemy, Ruby Ridge was about capturing criminals. That was made clear by Panetta's remarks about the mission orders.

    So what happened on the ground, all the details you cite, are irrelevant.

    As for whether you care, sorry I disagree. If you are okay with extra-legal, extra-judicial government programs - torture, illegal surveillance, indefinite detention, secret trials, nontrials, the prison camp at Guantanamo Bay - because the world is just too darn complicated, if you are fine with whatever way the government chooses to blur whatever lines when convenient, I don't see what the difference is between the nature of your concern and pure indifference. You're concerned, but basically a-okay with everything that is done in the name of security.


    First they came for the Muslims, but since I'm not a Muslim....


    I'm not trying to fully equate Ruby Ridge with this action.  Of course there were differences.  It would seem to me, maybe you aren't, that you're purposively ignoring the point I'm making by throwing up the notion that I am claiming there is a 1:1 relation between the two operations.  I would point out that nature of the operation with OBL as opposed to Ruby where they had the place surrounded, was the moment the Seals entered the compound to complete their mission they were in self-defense mode.  And not to get into a whole RR thing here, but a big part of the issue as to what happened was that there were orders to some of the snipers to shoot on sight some targets rather than just self-defense based on the special rules for engagement for RR.

    And by the way: where did I say I was fully okay with the extra-legal, extra-judicial government programs that our government implements?  Where do I say I'm okay with torture?  The only time I've mentioned torture was to say I think they should stand trial.  What I am for is the government, whether domestically or internationally, to be able when the circumstances meet certain criteria to act in accordance with the greater good over the individual's right.  That is not on its face a radical notion.  The debate not on whether this should happen, but when, what are those circumstances, what are those criteria.  To say such a thing is not to say one is all for nontrials or indefinite detention.

    I will say this:  in the effort to deal with the complicated world, with the lines blurred as they are, the government is going to step over the line.  And once they do it is difficult to pull them back.  At the same time not every time they lines are dealt with and crossed over is a result of some fascist or tyrannical goal. Rather it is out the motivation to deal with forces such as terrorist cells and the Russian mob etc who don't operate with any concern for laws or human rights in the implementation of their agenda.  So rather than indifference, it is a question of looking at everything on a case by case basis.  This particular case deals with rules of engagement, not rendition etc.  In such cases as this kind of operation, I tend to give law enforcement/military personnel more leeway to bring the situation to closure without loss of life on their part.


    @ Obey: My use of quotes in "declare war" was to indicate that, as I recall it, those were Osama bin Laden's words. Through his acolytes, he put those words into action, killing thousands in the U.S., hundreds in Spain, and dozens elsewhere. He openly sought to acquire a nuclear weapon, and openly threatened to use it.

    I can condemn the sloppy, indiscrimate use of Predator strikes in AfPak, and the distortion of the UN mandate to "protect civilians" to include killing Gaddafi, and the refusal to give Gitmo inmates civilian trials -- and still see the assassination of bin Laden as totally justified. Not only as retribution, but as an act of self-defense.

    Call me inconsistent. In this case, I buy the traditional Texas legal defense: He needed killing.


    And I think there is a BIG difference between the U.S. declaring war on an individual and that individual declaring war on half a dozen western countries. Take him at his word.


    Take him at his word.

    I will if you will.


    Yes, Osama denied planning the WTC attacks six days after they occurred. But Wikipedia quotes him in a 2004 video as saying he personally directed the 19 hijackers. Also:

    In two other tapes aired by Al Jazeera in 2006, Osama bin Laden announces, "I am the one in charge of the nineteen brothers [...] I was responsible for entrusting the nineteen brothers [...] with the raids" (5 minute audiotape broadcast May 23, 2006), and is seen with Ramzi bin al-Shibh, as well as two of the 9/11 hijackers, Hamza al-Ghamdi and Wail al-Shehri, as they make preparations for the attacks (videotape broadcast September 7, 2006).


    I can condemn the sloppy, indiscrimate use of Predator strikes in AfPak, and the distortion of the UN mandate to "protect civilians" to include killing Gaddafi, and the refusal to give Gitmo inmates civilian trials -- and still see the assassination of bin Laden as totally justified. Not only as retribution, but as an act of self-defense.

    Here's a question for you, as you seem as clearly convinced of the virtues of this adventure as anyone else around here, and clarity is what I'm seeking, Texas style.  Who do the surviving friends and family of the hundreds of thousands of innocent Iraqi and Afghan civilians get to kill for their justice and retribution and self-defense?  Anyone?  Give me a name.


    I nominate Dick Cheney. He's lived a full if evil life. I'm sure he's ready to take one for the team.

    But seriously, I do see that this administration also has blood on its hands. All I can say is end those wars now. I've been saying that pretty consistently.


    Sounds like Chomsky nominates GWB.


    How does that Texan defense hold up in court?

    Ack, you probably have something more fully thought through on this sort of issue, and what is inadequate about such a Texan view of things. And you can likely say it more eloquently than I, but I'll take a shot at it anyway. Justice is different from Fairness. Yes, he got what he deserved. But that is a pretty low bar, and represents a pretty frail and hollow notion of justice. It sure is gratifying, but that is more of a flaw than a virtue in this kind of case. Justice is also different from simple consequentialism - saving on net x number of lives in the future. It's actually diametrically opposed to such a view of the matter. Meting out justice is about how the society handles itself when threatened and harmed.

    Dunno. Opting for assassination rather than trying him in a court of law just strikes me as a sign of weakness. And, worse, it strikes me as a decision to view that weakness as a strength: the US as the new Dirty Harry of world society. And proud of it.


    Pretty eloquent. Yeah, I was not totally in synch with those shouting, "USA! USA!" at the White House gates, or at the ball game. Though I got the underlying sentiment.

    Look, Obama couldn't even persuade the U.S. Congress or public to close Gitmo and try KSM and the remaining inmates in New York City. Or anywhere. Given that hard FACT, what options were left to "bring bin Laden to justice?"

    Would an Eichmann-like trial and execution been ideal? Obviously. Should Obama have abandoned a possible second term by waging a losing fight with even his own political party? That would have been noble. But NO. The Republicans would capitalize, Michele Bachmann or Donald Trump or Glenn Beck would be president, and the lesson would simply have been lost on Americans.

    So he made the tough but dirty call. Sent in a hit team. I applaud him.


    Fair enough.


     

    You may have heard the phrase "Do it , fix it". From one of those "here's the secret of successful business " books.  Anyway it conforms with my idea of how things get done in business. You start. You screw up. You fix that. Etc.It was the 1980s reprise of the old stand by the Peter Principle. Since things go wrong all the time business consultants make their living from claiming they know why(they don't) and they know how to fix it (they don't).

    And the reason that they don't is because nobody does. People make mistakes all the time.Even Ted Williams couldn't hit the ball one out of every two times.

    So I agree completely with your view that this country has gotten lots of things wrong. Because this country and every country gets lots of things wrong every day as does every organization of every size.

    And then they fix them. Or at least fix as many as they can and point to those repaired failures as evidence of impeccable planning and implementation. 

    As to our sitting on the secret of  OBL's whereabouts. Since no one, repeat no one get's things right except by the process of correcting things that have gone wrong; and since that's true while working in the open with everyone reading the same score sheet, the idea that we could have successfully kept a secret about his whereabouts without that very secrecy causing us to then fail to capture him is, let me put it this way,  not one I share.

    As to the theory that having located him we did nothing  let's assume that while we were examing our navel...... he decided to move 

    A. Obama would have lost his chance for this victory

    B. The news would have leaked 

    C. He would have had zero chance of getting elected.

    If , as you say and I agree, we get things wrong all the time why in the name of everything holy and unholy should Obama or anyone , faced with a game changing  victory , decide to risk it. If you had 4 aces would you discard 3 of them  in the hopes of scoring a Royal Straight Flush?. Ain't gonna happen. 


    Wonderful! A better defense if incompetence I have yet to read. With a little padding, your post could make a best-selling business book. I have read a lot worse.


    And note it's all about re-electing Obama. Hooray! The promised land!


    No. It's not about defending incompetence or Obama It's about the real world.

    If it suits you to think that  the Seals , or  General Electric or the NYPD or NASA  , are models  of competence who get things right all the time, be my guest. But don't take normal human  incompetence as evidence of some deep conspiracy. It ain't . 

     


    I'll call this Flavius' corollary of Hanlon's razor: "Never attribute to conspiracy that which can be adequately explained by incompetence."


    I'm waiting for the title of this piece to become What Now (My Love)? which wikipedia tells me was originally Et Maintenant?


    Wonderful Idea!Cool

    Of course, Et Maintenant? simply means "What Now?" The "my love" business was just tacked on as an afterthought.


    In my salad days I kept a bottle of Korbel's brut in the refrigerator in anticipation of that "special occasion."  I'm sorry to say I never had an occasion to employ its charms.  I also kept a bottle of Stolichnaya in the freezer.  Because of the other vagaries of this life I had to replenish that cache, often. 

     На здоровье! ( salute!)

    (Note: I have no objection to your thinking out loud at this blog, even if your thoughts are not rigorously arranged.  I often find them stimulating even when I disagree.)


    That's easy for you to say.

    Wait til he announces that he's never quite trusted salads. After all, what do we know about their sudden rise to leafy prominence? And didn't it correspond to the growing media-power of the Jews, does it meet the secret nosh-needs of one Rupert Murdoch, and after all, DON'T THE CHINESE EAT RICE?????

    I rest my valise.


    I know. I know.  I read Dick's quotation from the old Latin poem.  "Post hoc propter ergo hoc" which if memory serves means "After hockey there is just more hockey."  I guess you two think alike. "Furem fur cognoscit et lupus lupum." if I may say. 

    Everything seems to make more sense in Latin doesn't it? 


    Gosh Quinn, maybe you are on to something! Come to think of it... Israelis.... eat salads for breakfast!


    Latest Comments