The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age

    When predictions don't meet the hype

    Is it a political thing, a tech thing, an issue of expectations?

    And then sometimes peeps be making shit up.

    How to balance it all?


    A thing Trump knows how to do well

    And that's actually not a new thing in 'P.R.': There is no such thing as bad publicity

    Esp if no penalty for it.

    Putin knows that:

    Yglesias on topic as far as elections are concerned:


    Nate Silver used to be pretty good at this - pointing out Bayesian buckets of likelihood, defining for us just how uncertain some races were rather than trying to pick just winners. If I say Biden will win, it's not as impressive as saying he'll win by 5% and be right, which is at as impressive as cataloguing the possibelle factors by small frequency range and having my pick correctly fall within that scenario (if the turnout for these 3 groups is this much, if the weather is X, if there arllis a candidate-leaning October Surprise of X magnitude...  Or other ways of pitching it)

    big oil not declining soon:

    Global auto sales 76m, EVs max 5m. (BYD passed Tesla with 1.9m global, Tesla )

    Those 70m gas & hybrids have at least a 10yr life, even tho 60% of cars ""entering China's roads" in 2025 should be EVs (so numbers we see in Jan 2026, but for domestic consumption).

    COVID has hit China hard, so output, new car demand (and economy over luxury) and other factors will affect that growth.

    Meanwhile i don't know that electric charging infrastructure has evolved anywhere to support huge growth. EU had 375k charging stations in 2021, France & Germany adding 600 per wk, say total is 1200/wk when est demand needs 6000 stations per wk to hit 3.5m by 2030. This will make EU EV adoption unequal. 

    3 new BYD Models coming to the EU have 260-320 mile range (tho declines the more highway mileage in the mix). Winter range is 15-20% lower, which also affects suitability for northern countries.


    Goodbye to Více

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