The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age

    Friday's Hearing

    By Flavius on Fri, 11/15/2019 - 4:25pm |

    We won.

    What ever might have been the outcome otherwise Trump's intervention meant the Republicans played catch up all day and never did.

    I'll check the feeling of the 538 group and add them subsequently.

    Subsequently

    WHY ? (As if you cared. Nor should you.)

    538's  day job: accumulating predictions and experiencing the actual  outcomes  trains them to automatically reject trivial data (plus their own romanticism)

    In Alfred Sloan's " My years at General Motors" , Sloan describes that Industry - at least the Auto Industry' -automatically assumed  each fall  "next year's going to be better."  Sloan concluded that was couldn't be  and hired the first corporate economist required  to create  an annual forecast  sufficiently  valid that Sloan was able to rely on the organization to  buy into it.

    In the do -what- I -say- not- what -I really -think - department (not in My Years at General Motors) years later Sloan   retiring   persuaded the Board to appoint "Engine Charlie Wilson " (later Secy of  Defense ) CEO . Sloan had a book carrier. Walked behind  him into the meetings , handed him to whatever document was being discussed and left with him . Carrying the books.

    Walking away from  a meeting at which Sloan had joined the majority approving  an Engine Charlie's  investment, the  carrier -who  knew Sloan didn't agree -  asked  why. 

     " One of the  costs of  training a new CEO."

    It's not enough to have a good forecast,

     

    Comments

    Live updates on the fallout (from WaPo, natch, it's only fitting):


    by artappraiser on Fri, 11/15/2019 - 9:42pm

    FiveThirtyEight analysis retweeted by Neal Katyal:


    by artappraiser on Fri, 11/15/2019 - 9:46pm

    Trump's 2 tax return losses and his $2 million fine. 

    The gaping scandalous oil leak they call Rudy Giuliani.

    The betrayal and bombing of the Kurds.

    And to some extent the death of Elijah Cummings.

    Perhaps cutting through the Wall with power tools...

    And concurrance from some Fox News personalities (partly due to Trump's "feud", I'm sure)

    All highlight how serious this is, and how much a running awful joke this Administration is.

    PS - Trump waging a major PR war to highlight an opponent's kid and nepotism is the kind of defying-gravity tricks that Trump's made a career if, but the irony is brutal, too brutal, and indeed it's likely that pulling his dick out once too often let's some of his supporters notice that indeed he's wearing no clothes. And post Roy Moore and pal Jeffrey Epstein, that's a bit icky even for True Believers.


    by PeraclesPlease on Fri, 11/15/2019 - 10:06pm

    There is also the Stephen Miller emails, reminders that we put children in concentration camps.

    Nikki Haley's book tells us that Kelly and Tillerson thought Trump was insane. Thoughts found in the soon to be published book by Anonymous.

    Drip.....drip.....drip


    by rmrd0000 on Sat, 11/16/2019 - 9:02am


    by artappraiser on Sat, 11/16/2019 - 9:16am

    With a Tweet, Trump Upends Republican Strategy for Dealing with Yovanovitch

    House Republicans planned ahead, hoping to strike a respectful tone at Friday’s impeachment hearing. Mr. Trump’s tweet was exactly the kind of attack they had hoped to avoid.

    By Michael D. Shear @ NYTimes.com, Nov. 15

    WASHINGTON — Heading into Friday’s impeachment hearing, the Republican strategy for dealing with Marie L. Yovanovitch was simple: treat the ousted ambassador to Ukraine with respect during her testimony on Friday and avoid any appearance of bullying a veteran diplomat who had been vilified and driven from her post.

    President Trump blew up the plan [....]

    [....]

    On the first day of the impeachment hearings on Wednesday, the president had managed to avoid commenting about the two men who testified — William B. Taylor Jr., the top diplomat in Ukraine, and George P. Kent, a senior State Department official.

    But his inability to hold his fire on Friday raised fresh doubts among his allies and White House advisers about what he will do next week, when eight witnesses are scheduled to testify in public hearings over the course of three days.

    Mr. Trump did not clear his Friday tweet with top White House aides before putting it out, leaving some of his advisers deeply dispirited. Privately, they acknowledged he had done himself damage.

    Not long after Mr. Trump’s tweet, his son Donald Trump Jr. fired off his own broadside, tweeting, “America hired ⁦‪@realDonaldTrump‬⁩ to fire people like the first three witnesses we’ve seen. Career government bureaucrats and nothing more.”

    Mr. Trump’s congressional allies had largely held back from those kinds of direct attacks on Mr. Taylor and Mr. Kent. They had planned to be especially careful with Ms. Yovanovitch.

    On Thursday, they met for several hours in Room HVC-215 of the Capitol for a practice session aimed at coordinating their overall message, with members who were not on the Intelligence Committee playing the parts of the former ambassador and Representative Adam B. Schiff, the Democratic chairman of the Intelligence committee.

    One thing they were clear about: They intended to use the same care grilling Ms. Yovanovitch that Republican senators tried to employ during last year’s testimony by Christine Blasey Ford, who accused Justice Brett Kavanaugh of assaulting her when the two were in high school, according to one person close to the House Republican leadership.

    Mr. Trump didn’t get the message — and Democrats seized on the political opportunity he handed them. Not long after the president tweeted his thoughts on Ms. Yovanovitch, Mr. Schiff read it aloud, to Ms. Yovanovitch and the cameras [....]


    by artappraiser on Sat, 11/16/2019 - 9:59am

    Trump didn't attack Wednesday's testifiers because they awere impressive men and he was afraid of 

    them.

    Friday's witness was a woman. So that was OK. Could handle them So he went back to letting Donald be Donald.

    He's not dumb. Nor completely lacking in self aware-ness. He knows he would have been terrified if  he'd been forced to copy Taylors military career, . And by a mechanism which I 'll just state without defending , in the company of heroic  men he is aware of his inadequacies and he desperately maneuvers so to avoid being trapped in a situation where he might have listen to them tell him what they think.

    He's  a worthless imitation of a human being .He knows it. He hates it.

    Good.


    by Flavius on Sat, 11/16/2019 - 7:18pm

    I think Flavius definitely has Trump's number on this one! Certainly sounds correct to me.

    Edit to add: this is why he has only limp noodle yes men left assisting, anyone with any gravitas always leaves. I'm not talking politics or policy here, I'm talking personal character and confident ego.


    by artappraiser on Sat, 11/16/2019 - 11:05pm

    The GOP base hates smart ambitious and accomplished women, the list is long there. Even the low education white "working class women" go along, he won't lose Forever Trumpers with this performance. 


    by NCD on Sun, 11/17/2019 - 12:15am

    Forever  Trumpers , yeah. But there are smart women from various economic levels supporting him for specific issues ,chiefly  abortion,  who will have been deeply  offended by the spectacle of the loud mouthed bully  with two guns blazing at this smart accomplished woman but invisible when his accusers are real men like Taylor and Kent.

    What a jerk. 

     

     


    by Flavius on Sun, 11/17/2019 - 9:45am

    It was a dog and pony show with the Fox team who moaned about this chick not being tough enough to take criticism.
    Women make good porn stars, secretaries, or serial wives but don't ask them to back you up when you threaten to take their testicles away. They won't notice the absence.


    by moat on Sun, 11/17/2019 - 4:33pm

    Here's a nice lady who can undoubtedly kick Trump's ass without breaking a sweat.
    Not that I consider being Rambo-like a prerequisite for doing intelligent diplomatic work (think Macron or Justin Trudeau are martial arts types? Bill Holbrook or Madeleine Albright?). And then all these people Trump surrounds himself with are lying loud-mouthed pussies - like Pence or McConnell or Nunes or Rudy or William Barr seem like they wouldn't get knocked down in 2 secs in a bar fight? Or Trump, Our Lady of the Mystical Bone Spurs, the guy who has to pay $100K for sex? All so laughable, day in, day out.


    by PeraclesPlease on Sun, 11/17/2019 - 6:31pm

    Thanks for that.
    No martial art references needed.


    by moat on Sun, 11/17/2019 - 6:46pm


    by artappraiser on Sat, 11/16/2019 - 10:13am

    Love this:


    by artappraiser on Sun, 11/17/2019 - 1:43am