Dan Kervick's picture

    Is Obama Screwed?

    By Dan Kervick on Sun, 05/06/2012 - 2:18am |

    If you asked me a few months ago, I would have said - and did - that Obama would win easily.

    But with 8.2% unemployment and continuing decline in labor force participation, and with the general level of misery, and with the economic numbers now headed in the wrong direction again, I think Obama has left a massive truck-sized hole that even Herbert Hoover could drive through.

    I'm starting to think he's toast.  The line that he saved the country from a depression that would have been worse isn't going to fly.  Krugman says we're still in a depression.

    If Obama had spent his presidency waging war with the evil Republican Congress and begging, pleading, threatening, thundering for a new New Deal and a jobs program to put the country back to work, he would be able to run on the claim that he tried his damnedest, but a traitorous Congress worked to keep Americans suffering on purpose to get him out of office.

    But he didn't do that.  Instead he spent a couple of years trying to work with Congress on stoking debt fears and creating an American version of the same austerity program that is delivering the slow motion train wreck that is Europe.

    He surrounded himself with "safe" fools, and tried to adopt a "safe" poll-tested course, and what do you know?  Safe doesn't work in a crisis.

    I almost can't believe the ineptitude, weakness and historical blindness of the current generation of Western leaders.  What a waste.

    Comments

    He's headed down the same road Sarkozy just walked.  Bad, backward, weak, economic policies prolonging a Transatlantic depression.


    by Dan Kervick on Sun, 05/06/2012 - 2:27pm

    The polls indicate basically this is a statistical tie between Obama and Romney.  Unless there is a major economic meltdown similar to what happened in 2008 (and that might happen), it is anyone's guess how this is going to turn out at this point. States like OH, FL, VA, and NC will decide the matter most likely.  A big question is whether Obama's team can make Romney become Bain Capital Romney in the eyes of the undecided voters and the liberal leaning voters who are feeling a little apathetic about their choices in 2012.  Even if the economy gets a little worse, Obama should win (barely) if enough voters see Romney as just one of those CEO-financiers who are making things so much worse. 


    by Elusive Trope on Sun, 05/06/2012 - 3:46pm

    These were my thoughts as well. There's much room between being able to "win easily" and being "screwed". Like Dan, initially I was very optimistic. I am now nervous, but I definitely don't feel like Romney will win easily.


    by Verified Atheist on Sun, 05/06/2012 - 5:02pm

    What if there is no meltdown, but unemployment goes up to 8.5% again, and growth dips down below 2%.  Won't that be enough for Romney to make the case that "we're headed in the wrong direction?"


    by Dan Kervick on Sun, 05/06/2012 - 5:45pm

    Romney can say, we don't have to remain in the Obama quick sand,

    Nether backwards or forward,.... just sinking 

    When you find yourself in a hole....put the shovel down and quit digging.

    A lesson for future Presidents; you cannot serve two masters, you must either love one and hate the other.

    Obama tried to appease his banker/wall street friends at the expense of the lowly ones.  

    Bankers bailed out and given lifeboats, underwater mortgagees allowed to sink. 

    Obama:" keep treading"   


    by Resistance on Sun, 05/06/2012 - 6:41pm

    I think a lot depends on Romney actually making the case as to what he would do differently.  The ones who buy into the notion that it is simply a matter of government getting out of the way (less taxes, less regulation = utopia) are already on his side.  Those in the middle between the two know there has to be some kind of government involvement in order to get the economy moving in the right direction.  It is just a matter of what kind of government involvement. 

    So far Romney hasn't shown he has that special something that will spark a kind of new morning in America feeling among the moderates and conservative Democrats.  More often than not so far he has shown when he opens his mouth, he comes across like an out of touch elitist.  Obama is at least a known entity to these voters.  Do they feel like taking a risk which might end up making this worse.  Because I think the experience of 2009 reminds a lot of people that while things might not be great, they could be a whole lot worse.

     


    by Elusive Trope on Mon, 05/07/2012 - 11:41am

    When an economy stinks, voters tend to throw out the incumbent.  It doesn't matter all that much who the opposition is or what is case is, so long as he is seen as generally competent.


    by Dan Kervick on Tue, 05/08/2012 - 1:00am

    And of course people don't remember 4 years ago - they remember the last unemployment check.

    Where's that jobs program when we need it?


    by PeraclesPlease on Tue, 05/08/2012 - 7:20am

    If it was as simple as that Romney should have at least a 10 point lead on Obama already.  In Ohio, Obama still has a small sliver of an edge in the polls.  So there must be some of those people who are wondering where the jobs program is, who are telling pollster they will vote for Obama over Romney.


    by Elusive Trope on Tue, 05/08/2012 - 9:54am

    Maybe in a booming economy Obama would have a 30 point lead, while without job growth it's neck-and-neck. Have no idea where you came up with your baseline to dismiss this, but par for the course.

    "Obama still has support, so everyone must be happy - news at 11".


    by PeraclesPlease on Tue, 05/08/2012 - 10:20am

    Where do I say everyone is happy?  The blog title is Is Obama Screwed?   Now where I come from, when someone is said to be screwed, it means that his or her situation is hopeless.  Failure is imminent. The current economy makes Obama's task vastly more difficult, but the current indicators would point to a conclusion of 'maybe he'll win, but maybe he'll lose.'  In other words, at the moment he doesn't appear to be screwed in spite of the current economic situation.  He still has support, including from those who have suffered in the recent downturn, know someone close who has, and/or are very dissatisfied with it.  Not every voter is going to vote based on the directive: bad economy - throw incumbent out.


    by Elusive Trope on Tue, 05/08/2012 - 10:30am

     You write  "Not every voter is going to vote based on the directive: bad economy - throw incumbent out."

    Only the blind, would ignore a solid basis, for the rejection of the incumbent.

    The reason Obama needs to tax the rich, is because his economic policies have helped decimate the tax base.

    As I've reported before, Ross Perot warned America, about the giant sucking sound of jobs leaving America and the loss of the tax base.

    20 million illegals who were  allowed to enter the US, with full knowledge of the impact on the American middle class worker, further demonstrates to all, but the blind, Obama the incumbent speaks out both sides of his mouth.

     The democrats, the supposed party, of the working class were instrumental in the demise of the American middle class. 

    The president’s solution to middle class woes; get a college degree and you won't have to be a dumb worker.

    Too dumb to see; the fix is in  

    Now seeing first hand and living under the misguided trade policies that Perot prophesied about, the democrats who voted for NAFTA and other trade policies, that undermined the American middle class; the democratic party' fall back position is......  after having destroyed the tax base as foretold, the only place left to find revenue is Obamas plan .....to tax the rich. 

    Obamas economic policy was a failure.

    Obamas failure in saving  the homeowner class, was instrumental in the financial crisis, that threatens to destroy the World economy.

    Any voter who ignores the lack of wisdom, on the part of the incumbent;  the incumbent who failed to provide leadership, at the most crucial time (Lesser Depression) , is a fool. 

    Fool me once shame on you. fool me twice shame on, any who vote for the incumbent, who lacked the wisdom or the desire to help solve the problem 

    Obama's gimmick stimulus cost us time and money. Home values are still dragging the economy down and all we get is lip service and half assed measures from Obama.

    Moneys cheap for the banks;  not so much for those of the middle class workers, whose net worth was destroyed PURPOSELY.


    by Resistance on Tue, 05/08/2012 - 1:02pm

    Only a fool would believe that one can place all of the blame for the economy at the feet of the president.  There are a multitude of factors at play in how the economy unfolds, some of which the president can influence, others he or she cannot.  Regarding those that can be influenced, there are other players who can at times undermine or negate a president's actions.  A wise person attempts to understand the broader context of the economy.  It is within the realm of possibility that the incumbent did as a good of job as any person could given the various factors and other players involved.  But who knows maybe you expect Obama to have been able to fix the situation in Greece.  Or you're one of those who believes what happens in the European Union doesn't influence the US economy.


    by Elusive Trope on Tue, 05/08/2012 - 2:06pm

    Having seen how inept Obama was on the housing crisis.

    To answer your question 

    "who knows maybe you expect Obama to have been able to fix the situation in Greece."

    No, Based on past performance; I would not have expected he would have.

    In this country the reality was not anywheres near, the promised change we sought.

    Obama sold us hope  hype, to fool us into believing, he would deliver us from bondage, to the banker class, the republican allies 

    Obama the captain of this ship, knew that once the bankers got the lifeboats, they would not allow the 2nd and 3rd class aboard.

    The bankers got the bailout;  the people were told "too bad"

    Obama chose his Goldman Sacs advisors, he liked what he heard from their special interest perspective. He listened to them and WE THE PEOPLE, suffer from a dismal economy. 

    The bankers got the real help and the people got a promise of change. An empty promise.

    Whereas; the Greeks have decided, no more of this bankers, enslaving the world BS.

    No need to be a slave to the banker class; cut out the banker class cronies; remove them from power.

    Don't reelect  promise makers, replace them with promise doers 

    The die is cast, Obama will not deliver the hope he instilled.

    Americans will replace the junker class; just as the Greeks were brave enough to say, enough is enough.

    I expect the bankers will punish the Greeks? Where will the Greeks find their friends now? Obama will speak up for them? 

    Will their Boston- like harbors, be blockaded? How dare they rebel against the all powerful bankers. 

    We will not save the banks from their own greed, by becoming their slaves. 

    Just because Obama and his G8 cronies, became the servant of the banker class; doesn't mean the world has to be served up as and for, the sacrifice for their sins. 

    Governments are toppling and their riches will not save them. 

    Citizens United in a common cause, replacing the leaders who slave for the banker class and not the lowly. 

    Tough times ahead, when those in power fear the loss of power.

    Banker class: "Obama do something, meaningful "  


    by Resistance on Tue, 05/08/2012 - 5:37pm

    so who are the promise doers currently running?


    by Elusive Trope on Tue, 05/08/2012 - 5:42pm

    No one is currently running, because the Democratic party machine; the cronies and lackeys of the banker class wouldn't allow it.  

    Obama screwed ..........us 

    We the people were screwed,  payback time.

    We the People may be going down, but those in power that allowed our demise are going down too. 

    Misery loves company. 

    The Greeks know they'll be punished and are willing to take the risk.

    Some Americans will not accept comfort over values, they will reject the corruption of the Democratic party.  

    Some so weak and lacking courage, will accept the bitter drink offered by the democratic machine. The democratic party employs fear to keep you enslaved, "don't go outside the box"    

    Obama should have been primaried by the next Democratic nominee.

    Evidently the democrats bench is too shallow. 

    What ever shall we do in 2016? Tell us who to vote for, cronies and lackeys. 


    by Resistance on Tue, 05/08/2012 - 6:28pm

    Talk about wasting a crisis (pace, Rahmbo), the plutos were on the run in March '09.

     

    That 6500 Dow really concentrated their attention.

     

    What confuses me is, why run for president if you really don't want to run the country?


    by jollyroger on Sun, 05/06/2012 - 5:42pm

     

    Quotes from Obamas BS speech,

    http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-transcript-obama-campaign-kickoff-20120505,0,4788708.story

    Main theme; forget the past , move forward.

    Forget about those left on the battlefield  

    Obamas speech ……………….and my counter

    OBAMA: "Will we better off if more Americans get a better education?

    Mr President will America be better off, when millions lose their homes

    OBAMA: "When some wanted to let Detroit go bankrupt, we made a bet on American workers, on the ingenuity of American companies.  And today, our auto industry is back on top of the world.  Manufacturers started investing again, adding jobs for the first time since the 1990s.  Businesses got back to the basics, exports surged.  And over four million jobs were created in the last two years -- more than one million of those in the last six months alone.  Are we satisfied?"

    HELL NO!  MR PRESIDENT, WE ARE NOT SATIsFIED THAT YOU BAILED OUT THE BIG THREE AND KICKED THE HOMEOWNERS TO THE CURB.

    You arrogant Pr,  and you have the audacity, to tell us how your administration bailed out the auto workers.

    Well let me tell you, Mr. President;  we homeowners, would have bought the cars on our own initiative , without your interference, if you would have helped us, help others.

    You kicked the homeowners under the bus, so you could now claim how you saved Detroit.   

    Homeowners with a little help could have saved Detroit.

    Another

    OBAMA: "Of course not.  Too many of our friends and family are still out there looking for work.  The housing market is still weak, deficits are still too high, ……...  This crisis took years to develop, and the economy is still facing headwinds.  And it will take sustained, persistent effort -- yours and mine -- for America to fully recover.  That’s the truth.  We all know it.

    YEAH WE KNOW HOW YOU; MR PRESIDENT BLEW IT

    HOUSING IS WEAK, BECAUSE OBAMA FAILED TO HELP THE HOUSING MARKET.

    Another

    OBAMA: "This time, they want to give banks and insurance companies even more power to do as they please. 

    THIS TIME ?  Obama you also helped save the banks and the insurance companies during your time in office. Obama ignored the underwater mortgagees; the housing market is weak because, Obama failed to address the problem adequately, during his tenure. How many times was Obama warned and he ignored?   

    OBAMA: "We have come too far to abandon the change we fought for these past few years.  We have to move forward, to the future we imagined in 2008, where everyone gets a fair shot, and everyone does their fair share, and everyone plays by the same rules.  That’s the choice in this election, and that’s why I’m running for a second term as President of the United States.

    BS….. We do want change and the folks have it all figured out; neither you nor Romney give a crap about homeowners, you only give us lip service when you’re looking for our votes  

    OBAMA: "………”  Well, let me tell you something.  The problem with our economy isn’t that the American people aren’t productive enough -- you’ve been working harder than ever.  The challenge we face right now -- the challenge we faced for over a decade is that harder work hasn’t led to higher incomes.  It’s that bigger profits haven’t led to better jobs.

    NO MR PRESIDENT, THE PROBLEM WITH THE ECONOMY IS;

    YOU LET THE HOMEOWNERS GO UNDER. That’s the problem with the economy.  Housing market weakness .  Mr president you allowed a major component, of our economy to suffer.  Housing related industries, accounted for 19% of our GDP  and you Mr. President, failed to protect a vital industry, while you boast about Detroit?.

    Dumbasses believe;  an underwater mortgagee is going to buy a new car?  

    ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF OBAMAS DISCONNECT

    OBAMA: "Governor Romney doesn’t seem to get that.  He doesn’t seem to understand that maximizing profits by whatever means necessary -- whether through layoffs or outsourcing or tax avoidance or union-busting -- might not always be good for the average American or for the American economy.

    WHAT? OBAMA MUST THINK WERE ALL IDIOTS,

     HOW DID Obama bail out Detroit? Did Union workers take a cut in pay?   More concessions; Obamas the more gentler Romney ?

    Obamas plan, force unions to compromise;

    How did he do that? Don’t let the homeowners bail out Detroit. Tell Detroit there is no other savior.  

    Make sure everyone knows, Obama saved Detroit  

    OBAMA: "Look, we want businesses to succeed.  We want entrepreneurs and investors rewarded when they take risks, when they create jobs and grow our economy.  But the true measure of our prosperity is more than just a running tally of every balance sheet and quarterly profit report.  I don’t care how many ways you try to explain it:  Corporations aren’t people.  People are people.

    EXCEPT; MR PRESIDENT,   YOU TOO, HELPED THE BANKING CORPORATIONS FIRST.

    You did nothing to help homeowners, who took a risk, only to be undercut by a government who turned a blind eye to the People allowing the banks to steal trillions in asset value.   

    IN CASE YOU DIDN’T KNOW ……..HOMEOWNERS ARE PEOPLE TOO,  MR OBAMA  

    OBAMA: "We know that our country is stronger when we can count on affordable health insurance and Medicare and Social Security. When we protect our kids from toxic dumping and mercury pollution.  When there are rules to make sure we aren’t taken advantage of by credit card companies and mortgage lenders and financial institutions.  And we know these rules aren’t just good for seniors, or kids, or consumers -- they're good for business, too.  They're part of what makes the market work………Look, we don’t expect government to solve all our problems, and it shouldn’t try.

    MR PRESIDENT ….WE DO EXPECT OUR LEADERS TO SOLVE A HOUSING CRISIS THAT COULD BRING OUR ECONOMY DOWN

    OBAMA: "But that’s not an excuse to tell the vast majority of responsible, hardworking Americans, 'You’re on your own.'

    THAT’S EXACTLY WHAT YOU DID MR. PRESIDENT;…… YOU TOLD HOMEOWNERS  “'You’re on your own.”

    OBAMA: That’s not how we built America.  That’s not who we are.  We built this country together. We built this country together.

    Nothing but election year BS, Homeownership helped build America .

    I wonder how Obama will like his eviction?


    by Resistance on Sun, 05/06/2012 - 6:31pm

    Homeownership helped build America.....and illegal immigrant labor was instrumental in building the homes that were built in America, while they, and their families, helped support real estate prices.


    by NCD on Sun, 05/06/2012 - 6:54pm

      

    I suppose you’d reason, the same as the slaves helped build the South?

    Much more sanitized, to call it opportunity.  Only this time, don’t call it slavery; although the effect is still the same, economic warfare.

    Everything the same, as it ever was.

    Remember

    Undercut the American workers by bringing in the coolies, to build the railroads, so the big and powerful could acquire more wealth they didn’t have to hire American workers who wanted more money .

    Bring in the slaves, to pick the cotton because they work so much cheaper and are more controlled, than their northern counterparts.

    Did the textile industries in the South,  benefit from the cheaper labor low wage workers provided ?

    Obamas plan to end worker slavery ……. Slaves you need to go to college

    Present day ……Move your business to Texas ,where manufacturers can find an overabundance of cheap labor and don't have to provide anything but a job.  No healthcare, no education

    Slaves had a job; American workers want more than a job.

    While the illegal immigrant, is more than willing to undercut the gains and aspirations of AMERICAN FAMILIES. The illegal will gladly compete against American workers; who demand a living wage above the poverty wages of Mexico.

    With the help of blind, stupid and treacherous Americans, the rich and powerful will again return to slavery  peasants fighting for the crumbs, with an overabundance of cheaper labor.

    20 million undocumented workers were the pawns, used to bring the American worker to his knees

    20 million undocumented workers helped create the bubble, which choked the American blue collar worker.

    The illegals being a part of the three chord rope, which hung the blue collar worker and has allowed the rich and powerful,  to force blue collar into submission.  

    When does your unemployment run out?  Will you work cheaper then.

    FIGHT FOR THE CRUMBS ……WHILE CONGRESS FEATHERS  IT’S BED

    That's not the America, many AMERICANS WANT TO RETURN TO.

    Been there, done that

    Legal immigration- YES……..Controlled Immigration- Yes

    ILLEGAL ….. NO

    It’s why the American labor movement supported the law,  to enact  the Customs and immigration department

    The American worker,  should have control over their financial futures and  not be dependent upon, the 20th century slave merchants, for the crumbs that fall from their tables.

    IT WAS Treachery by a Federal government; complicit in the economic warfare, against the AMERICAN blue collar workers.

    Ross Perot warned about the shrinking tax base. 

    Where was Obama when the battle lines were being formed in Wisconsin?

    Did he address the 99%, occupying Wall Street?   

    The rich and powerful were not done after NAFTA they wanted submission by the slaves.

    It was the plan in the 1700’s, the 1800’s, the 1900’s and the plan remains the same

    WHY are Americans so blind to the scheme?


    by Resistance on Sun, 05/06/2012 - 11:01pm

    I wish he had too, as it would have improved the national dialog and helped more Americans better understand the importance of aggressive stimulus, even if he had been completely unsuccessful in achieving it.

    But I don't share your confidence that it would have changed the outcome of this election. Counterfactuals are all too easy without the messy complications of real-world effects. A more aggressive approach may well have turned off more voters than it turned on, and the misery index would make it a very difficult election no matter what Obama's rhetorical strategy had been.

    I also lack the hubris to predict how this will go in November, though I'm certainly concerned.


    by Michael Wolraich on Sun, 05/06/2012 - 7:24pm

    Not predicting.  Just wondering aloud.

    By the way, on the matter of hubris and predictions, how is A-Man recovering from his flights of primary fancy?  Or were those not real "predictions" and rather just attempts to spin?

     


    by Dan Kervick on Sun, 05/06/2012 - 8:00pm

    Dunno. I'm not my co-blogger's keeper.

    PS Sorry, that hubris comment came out harsher than I meant it. If you had been offering a prediction, you certainly wouldn't be the first blogger to do so on this site or many others. I find myself throwing out overconfident prognications more than I used to, though I try to avoid it.


    by Michael Wolraich on Sun, 05/06/2012 - 11:51pm

    In response to the question posed by your blog:

    WE ARE ALL SCREWED!

    I mean Wall Street or the corporate oligarchy or the rich or however you describe it,

    WE ARE ALL SCREWED!

    I could go on an on (as I have a hundred times) writing about the corporation that is a fictional concept and yet controls all its employees through contracts that prevent employees from properly reporting the sins of their employers!

    Corporations will prevent employees from communicating about equal protection or due process or actions against the interests of the United States of America for chrissakes and in most jurisdictions, these contractual agreements (written by the tsars of industry) are acknowledged!

    The model for the Mitts of this planet is a totalitarian model that keeps the peasants down and pushes for the enrichment of the rich.

    That is a fact!

    Why we have so many peasants voting for the oligarchy is that once you place an ad on the web or cable, Americans will buy anything! Absolutely anything. Shamwows and Viagra and diet powders and Trudeau monographs and whatever.

    So the more money you spend, the more your message and your call for funds will be recognized.

    That's all I got.

    Propaganda rules the waves, and propaganda are the waves.

    the end


    by Richard Day on Sun, 05/06/2012 - 7:46pm

    In The Road Less Traveled, M Scott Peck tells us that life is difficult. Perhaps he really meant that we are all screwed.


    by Donal on Sun, 05/06/2012 - 9:35pm

    hahahahahaahha!

    The only response I have.

    hahahahaha


    by Richard Day on Mon, 05/07/2012 - 2:48am

    I don't know.  Mitt's a weak opponent.  Obama is lucky that all of the Republican "stars" decided not to risk going against him.


    by Michael Maiello on Mon, 05/07/2012 - 4:05pm

    Mitt's the strongest candidate they had.

    He's the closest to normal, and no one to his right will vote for Obama.

    Santorum, Perry, Gingrich, Cain, Perry, Bachman, Palin? grouchy McCain part II?

    The only left-out star is Jeb Bush, and he's a bit tainted with his brother.

    Sorry Glenn Beck couldn't make it. Dick "rising star" Cheney sends his regards.

    Think about it - how many serious gaffes has Romney made on the campaign trail? How many Rev. Wright or "hold on one second, sweetie" fires did he have to douse?


    by PeraclesPlease on Tue, 05/08/2012 - 11:16am

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