Republicans search for lessons in Wisconsin special election upset.
By Elena Schneider @ Politico.com, Jan. 17
I didn't get around to reading on this until now. This piece is good enough to show what all the buzz is about. The district was basically Trump country in the last election, and is a very conservative area of Wisconsin, overall the types that helped elect Scott Walker and Paul Ryan in an idiosyncratic state overall. What happened, it's not being reflected in the presidential approval polls. All Dems have to do is run anyone halfways moderate in this type of area and they are winning way beyond Hillary's numbers in 2016. It surely does look like anti-Trump voting to me.
[....] the [Dem] party’s latest victory in a rural and suburban seat in western Wisconsin that backed Trump by 17 points, is unnerving Republicans from Madison to Washington.
“This special election hit the Wisconsin GOP like an electric shock,” said Charlie Sykes, a former conservative radio host in Wisconsin. “In particular, they’re very worried about women. They are losing women, suburban women, and if you extrapolate across the country, you have a real problem.” [....]
According to the liberal blog Daily Kos Elections, in 70 special elections in 2017 — both for Congress and state legislatures — Democrats did, on average, 10 points better than their 2016 presidential vote.
“No single special election alone is predictive of the midterms, but 34 state legislative seats that have flipped, on top of the margins in Virginia and the win in Alabama, show a pretty clear trend of voters just not being that into Republicans right now,” said Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist. "I wouldn’t want to be a Republican in a district that Trump won by less than 17 points.”
Schachtner’s win also sheds light on how Democratic challengers can make inroads in conservative-leaning seats: Don’t talk about Trump or Ryan.
“It wasn’t Trump or Paul Ryan’s race, it was District 10’s race,” Schachtner said. “I focused on western Wisconsin and western Wisconsin values.” [....]
of course note this cavaet: conservatives staying home
Schachtner, who was significantly outspent on TV and radio by her Republican opponent, won two of the four rural counties that compose the district. She also beat GOP state Rep. Adam Jarchow by 11 points in St. Croix County, a suburb that feeds the Twin Cities. St. Croix County backed Trump by 19 points last cycle.
“The most troubling sign is that we lost St. Croix County,” said Rohn Bishop, Fond du Lac County GOP chairman. “If we lose that county in November, we’ll get slaughtered statewide. We’re losing college-educated and suburban voters — while rural voters didn’t show up, which all is troubling to me.”
What I am thinking after seeing that is that in 2020, while anti-Trump swings are coming out now, and will probably help Dems in 2018 while conservatives stay home disgusted, the latter might get off the couch to vote for like: a President Pence.