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What's Going On...

Since Bernie grief, email/tarmac worries and Donald phobias have been rocking our free world way too much, thought it'd be useful to take a breather and discuss something else. And what an else...

1) recent spate of cop-on-black killings re-ignites the Ferguson riot scenes from last summer. Will we actually do something about it, will it be left to Hillary, or will it be just part of America's pastoral gun-laden backdrop?

2) Speaking of guns, still no new legislation despite Congressional sitdown. Nice symbolism, but...

Warren vs. Kaine Smackdown

So if Hillary goes for Warren, she risks losing the cross-over Republican refugees fleeing a sinking ship and brand the ticket too liberal for some.

If she chooses Tim Kaine, she may miss the boat in inspiring the Sanders crowd as well as lose someone who seems to ignite a fire.

The New Normal

Below is our future President and Commander-in-Chief. While there have been loads of photos of politicians with kids, this one seems to say so much - not teasing, not mugging, simply doing what women do with children, communicating on so many levels including just being there, calmly.

As I read yet another "Hillary doesn't know why she's running" article, I think somehow they haven't been listening. For 25 or 40 years. Or the ultimate damning quip, "she's running on a laundry list", I think, "what's wrong with a laundry list? that's how my wife gets 3 million things done before I get home." Most of us need an app for that.

DC by 57%, it's wrap

It's a wrap on DC with Hillary winning by a 57% margin - her 34th of 57 contests and 15th of the last 21. Her final popular vote is about 16.5 mill (2.2m in California alone), up by nearly 4 million over her opponent (a half million up in CA). The results include a 31-9 margin in primaries (including non-binding Washington and Nebraska).

The map below pretty well sums it up - a romp in the park, took the gold. On to the convention.

Tolerance with a whisper (Planet 9 from Outer Space)

[Welcome back, ArtAppraiser, even if a short visit - had thought I'd be gone long before you. Plus as response to Mike Maiello and in general thoughts on our cultural jiu-jitsu]

In answer to "People get a bit of a pass for their religion-based intolerances."  Like duh, when something's a 4000 year old tradition, it tends to carry weight. As do other long-standing traditions along with well-cemented ideas or structures, even if recent.

She came, she saw, he died

Taking California by 13% (with 92% counted, including all Bernie counties) along with NJ by landslide and victories in New Mexico & South Dakota, Hillary underpromised and overdelivered: she came, shesaw, and Bernie cried, died (and lied a little bit). There is no path for Bernie to anything - she nailed it shut. Rather than leaving a tinge of doubt, to America's buyer's remorse, her east-west romp bookends a successful romp across NE, midwest, south and southwest, with a few good showings in northwest and even South Dakota, presumably Bernie country.

Cleveland forfeits title

Recognizing that Cleveland had little chance of beating Golden State and that other teams matched up better in head-to-head contests, the NBA revoked the Cavs' league title and asked for a review to determine which team might be able to take on the formidable Warriors. Despite the Cavaliers' domination of their schedule, their collapse in the face of overwhelming Warriors' pressure in post-season play is confirmation of FiveThirtyEight's prognosis that they weren't ready to carry the torch, and it should be passed on to a more deserving team.

Champ vs Chump

Large wins in Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico put Hillary within 27 delegates from victory (2358 out of 2383), 215 if you don't count superdelegates (1811 of 2026). 

With 714 pledged delegates left, Hillary needs 30% to clinch the pledged vote, far below her average.

A 20%+ loss in Puerto Rico also heavily dents Sanders' claim that he does better with Hispanics going into heavily Hispanic California and New Mexico.

Bernie stops making sense

Bernie's always been math challenged, and his wishful "we have to do very very well in California" understates matters significantly. To win the pledged vote, Hillary needs 2026 delegates (1/2 of 4051 + 1). Which means 257 of the remaining 781 pledge delegates or 32.9% - fewer than 1/3. That's not just "very very well" - that's deliriously fantastical, based on any primary to date, along with current polls, the most optimistic for Sanders putting Hillary 2% ahead, the worse one for him showing Hillary with an 18% lead.

The Polls. Again. Sigh.

Scanning RealClearPolitics, they've got the latest poll up from PPIC, showing Hillary up by only 2%, an improvement from 2 1/2 months ago when she led by 7%. Except nobody thought he was within 7% back in March, except for the most fiercely devoted. PPIC chose 552 likely voters - 2/3 to 1/3 of the typical poll.


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