The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age
    acanuck's picture

    CANADA'S ORANGE REVOLUTION: FINAL WEEKEND

    By acanuck on Fri, 04/29/2011 - 5:03pm |

    Quinn's Tuesday post has almost slipped off the page, so consider this a new open thread.

    The New Democratic tsunami rolls on, picking up almost one percentage point of support over the past 24 hours, and finally ThreeHundredEight.com is showing that translating into seats. Six new ones added overnight to the party's projected total, which now stands at 53.

    That's still 17 behind the second-place Liberals, but even the pollster concedes it's his rolling average that is underrepresenting the party's likely seat gains. And frustratingly, because of vote-splitting on the left, the Conservatives are projected to actually gain a seat over where they stood in the last Parliament.

    So it all comes down to the final three days. I'm counting on the six per cent who still back the Green Party to defect en masse to the NDP. If the party keeps gaining a percentage point a day (and their new converts actually show up at the voting booth) Jack Layton will become the leader of the opposition. At that point, the minority Conservatives will need a vote of confidence. If the two other opposition parties deny him one, Layton will get his own shot at forming either a minority or coalition government. Not to get too far ahead of ourselves.

    Here again is the 308 link, which unfortunately is the most comprehensive poll aggregator I've seen:

    http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

    Comments

    Okay, if the commies win, I mean...that does not mean they are going to invade Minnesota...are they?


    by Richard Day on Fri, 04/29/2011 - 8:46pm

    Depends. Will the Minnesotans throw up their hands and say, "We'll meet all your demands?"


    by acanuck on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 2:15am

    Any GOTV moves to call the Greens to advise them to vote NDP?  It'd make a lot of sense...


    by we are stardust on Fri, 04/29/2011 - 9:49pm

    Greens in the latest polls are down around four per cent, and more will defect by Monday. I think Layton's main concern right now is that all those proclaiming themselves fresh converts actually show up to vote.


    by acanuck on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 2:20am

    Hey Ack. At this point, I think we can pretty much consign 308 to the dustbin, as anyone following along using it would be missing a pretty interesting election. The 308 guy can SAY he's lagging a bit, but even today his seat projections are only using an NDP vote at 24% or so. When for days now, ALL the polls have been at 30 and above! The other pollsters are doing their own seat projections, and they're showing 90, 100 and above. And if you prize out the latest day results from the 3 day rolling voted being used, it looks like about 35-33 right now. The Greens have largely melted, and what we're now seeing is the crumbling of the Liberals, even in Ontario. What's interesting about the NDP moving above 30, if they can GOTV, is that the seat projections begin to move quite wildly TOWARD them. That is, the Tories have 80 or so seats where they got 50-75% of the vote last time, so a lot of THEIR vote gets wasted. While the NDP eats the last yard or two necessary to win a majority. Crazy talk, I know, but that's the electoral math. Kinds sad that 308 guy isn't running scenarios that show us what the seats would look like if you plugged those numbers In. Or did I miss that one? Anyhow. MONDAY, THE WORLD TURNS... ORANGE!

    by quinn esq on Fri, 04/29/2011 - 10:17pm

    For those who still have trouble visualizing what quinn and I mean by a New Democratic "tsunami," here's the Ipsos polling firm's graph of expressed voter intentions as of Thursday. And remember, the election was only called on March 27. In the space of a month, the party has doubled its popular support. If the NDP continues to gain one percentage point a day by Monday (voting day), and the Tories lose votes at the same rate, the two parties will be virtually tied.

    Poll graph

    A tie in popular vote, however, doesn't automatically translate into equal numbers of seats. There are three main parties competing (plus a fourth regional one in Quebec), so it's theoretically possible to win a seat with less than 30 per cent of the vote. Which makes riding-by-riding results incredibly hard to predict. An overall swing of a percentage point or two can cost a party dozens of seats. Get-out-the-vote efforts (or lack of them) can do the same. So I'm a bit less confident than quinn is. It's nail-biting time.


    by acanuck on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 2:12am

    Hey Ack. Well, my view was that the NDP would poll above 30% at the tape, but would inevitably have a weaker GOTV in parts of the country, thus likely knocking them down to 30% or perhaps 28%. Still, I thought that 90-110 seat range was doable. Especially since the Tory vote is so heavily concentrated (i.e. wasted) in the 80 ridings where they poll 50-75%. 

    But then.... yesterday's smear in the Sun. Jesus. Jack in a massage parlour, getting a rub and tug. 16 YEARS ago. I've read the Sun's articles, and the official responses from Olivia and such, but ummm.... yep. Looks like it was a rub and tug to me. And pretty tough for Jack to say he didn't know it, it being in Chinatown and all.

    So. The Toronto cops and the Tories play their little card, long saved against just such a need. [If the Grits had had it, they'd have played it earlier, when they still had a chance. This got played because he was eating Tory votes, and to knock him back now... is likely enough to give the Tories their majority.] 

    I watched a similar NDP surge get not just blunted, but sharply reversed, by 4-6%, on precisely that last Friday and weekend, in Nova Scotia, in 1999. It cost them not just the election, but their seats fell apart, and Robert Chisholm - the leader - resigned and left politics. The Tories play their cards late, so there's no time to respond, no time for it to sink in and become old news. Just a last-minute blind-side hit.

    Against Chisholm, it leaked that he'd been convicted of drunk driving at age 17, but then later had filled out some election questionnaire saying he'd never had a charge against him. In particular, it drove off the women's vote. A lot of moralistic old dears liked the NDP at the time, but LIQUOR??? AND DRIVING? 

    But the reason it crushed Chisholm personally I think, was a second secret he had kept from the public - that he'd later himself had a child killed by a drunk driver. The politicians all knew it (including the Tories) and so did the press, but they "respected his right" to not talk about it. and yet, the Right had no qualms about blindly pounding him as an irresponsible drinker because of an act at age 17.

    What's doubly brutal in this is that Chisholm has just returned to politics and is running again this election, in a seat right on the margin.

    So. I guess I'm no longer sure of anything. That 28-30% could fall, easily, to 24%-26%. Which would get them extra seats, but likely in the 50-70 range. The Liberals are far too beat up to seize back the full opportunity and gain any real strength, so this act could well be enough to get Harper his majority.

    I feel a bit sick, to tell the truth.

    I can only hope that there's enough younger people alive and kicking out there who'll see the larger issue as being the dirty tricks of the Right, and their smear-loving press, and who'll take extra steps. Can't see it though.

    Argh.


    by quinn esq on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 11:52am

    I dunno, quinn. In an election campaign so maddeningly impossible to call, I retain hope that the rub-and-tug episode will have a happy ending. Quebecers will shrug and say who cares, and a lot of people in ROC will recognize it as a right-wing smear. I mean, this is the worst they could dig up on Layton? One visit to a massage parlor 16 years ago? Jeez, the man is a saint!

    This bit of sleaze may even cost Harper votes by reinforcing how people view his character. There's no plausible deniability. It's not like Sun Media can claim to be anything but a wholly owned subsidiary of the Tory machine. What a piece of crap "Fox News North" has proved itself to be.

    Oh, 308 has the NDP up 1.3 per cent overnight, for a gain of six seats to 59 -- six shy of the plummeting Liberals. Maybe most voters see the smear as tug-and-shrug.


    by acanuck on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 12:45pm

    Let's hope. My friends all say it'll have no effect. But I'm from moralistic old Baptist stock, and saw what it did in NS in '99, and there's always been that 25% of voters who swing Tory-to-NDP-and-back, obeying no ideological dictates whatsoever, but who are impacted by odd things. So we'll see what churns through their minds. 

    The Sun. May they burn in hell. Again.


    by quinn esq on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 12:56pm

    I think a lot depends as well on how much play it gets in the press before monday. And the Royal Wedding seems to be drowning everything else out. The Tories may have timed their slime-bomb all wrong. Even now, if I search the NDP on google news, the massage parlour story comes far down the list. The main story remains - NDP SURGE.

    Here's to hoping.


    by Obey on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 1:06pm

    Aw; don't call him 'Ack'; makes him sound like a shocked expletive.  Like he's standing on top of a burning cop car and getting tazed, man.  'Canuck' ain't that many letters ya freakin' illerates.  Littitterates.  Illigitimates.  (google, google): illiterates.  There.


    by we are stardust on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 12:20pm

    How 'bout, "Uck," or "Nuck?"


    by Donal on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 12:21pm

    How 'bout 'Done' or 'No!'?


    by we are stardust on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 12:37pm

    Hey! I'm standing right here. I can hear you!


    by acanuck on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 12:47pm

    Well, hah there, canuckie darlin'' !  Why'n't ya pull up a chair and set a spell then?

    "Ack!"


    by we are stardust on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 12:55pm

    Quinn liked "acanut".


    by A Guy Called LULU on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 12:52pm

    Man called him 'Ack' above; like the sound ya make when a junebug just flew down yer throat, and ya can't quite choke it out.  Bruce goes with 'ACK'  like a dyslexic talkin' about registered puppies er somethin'. 


    by we are stardust on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 12:58pm

    I was just tryin' to be polite, and not call him what most Leafs fans call Montreal fans..... ;-)

     


    by quinn esq on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 2:08pm

    Give it up, Mr. Polite!  What is it that most Leaf fans call them Montreal fans?  Cheaters?  Barbarians?  Uh...Trogs?  Frogs?  That's it, isn't it????


    by we are stardust on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 2:44pm

    I think Leaf fans would be the Trogs. (Don't tell acanuck though, that kinda thing could catch on.)


    by quinn esq on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 4:32pm

    Sealed  My lips are sealed.


    by we are stardust on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 4:53pm

    I'm leaving a Monkland Village terrasse after a long, late sushi lunch an hour or so back, and this guy with a mittful of Tory literature sticks out his other hand and says hi. Looks kinda familiar. "So which candidate are you?" I ask. "Stockwell Day," he says. I recognize him now. Why is he in Montreal, rather than defending Okanagan-Coquihala from the socialist tide? Right, he's retiring as an MP this election. Ever polite, I keep smiling. "So they're sending in the big guns," I suggest. Day modestly demurs, then introduces the guy he is stomping the pavement with: Tory candidate Neil Drabkin.

    The two go back years; Drabkin was Day's chief of staff as minister of public safety and later international trade. Drabkin is running a distant third to both the NDP and Liberal candidates in my riding. "But I haven't been to a massage parlor in years," he chimes in. "You guys shouldn't be pushing that line too hard," I tell them. "It only plays into the public perception of Harper as a last-minute dirty-trickster. It could actually cost you votes." Both protest that the Tories didn't start the rumor; it was journalists who dug up the story. I tell them Sun News is not journalism by any normal definition. Day sheepishly offers a flyer. I tell him no thanks, I've already decided how I'm voting, adding: "You know you're going to lose this riding, don't you?"

    They hastily beat a retreat to (they hope) a more welcoming terrasse. At the last moment, I remember my manners: "Enjoy your visit to Montreal!" They don't look back.


    by acanuck on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 4:27pm

    Sweet.

    Did you mention jet-skiing or that wet suit? ;-)


    by quinn esq on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 4:33pm

    Nah, Day looked sheepish enough as he slunk (slinked, slank?) away. I was surprised they would be pushing the rub-and-tug so brazenly in person. Wonder if I'm the first to push back?


    by acanuck on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 6:11pm

    Thought you'd be interested, acanuck.

    ... I went to 308 yesterday, after seeing your post here. Wrote in their comments section (which always has lots of comments) that I thought the "lag" in their model was a real problem. And not just a technical problem.

    In particular, I said that promoting such a model in the wider press, and making seat - and thus, winner - "projections" was ill-advised in the run-up, if you KNEW your model was lagging badly. To be doing so when your model was running a good 6% below any major pollster, with less than 48 hours left in the election, ran the risk of misleading people.

    What they've been doing is saying they're doing 2 late updates, and that should help it catch up. Except that they gave Le Devoir their projections published today, and the Globe for tomorrow - which will come out as "final." How the hell can they justify this???

    And yes, they're doing something different than polling, adding in factors for incumbency and star candidates and such on top of the polls, but then they comment about how with the surge in the NDP, they'll likely have weak ground games, which will help their actual vote BACK DOWN toward what the 308 model shows. To which... hello???? You think characteristics NOT in your model will help it come closer to a reality you think it's wandered from? And then you want to publish this?

    I just find this sort of thing the worst sort of manipulation of the public discussion - knowingly putting out a model you know has problems, defending it because it's after-the-fact results will look better, conjuring up factors you never bothered quantifying that you think will confirm your otherwise wrong projections, etc.

    And then NDP'ers showing up on the site complaining get hassled as being "political," the guy complains in the comments saying he knows about the lag and could we not have people talk about it for a while, etc.?

    Anyway. I wrote the first part of what I laid out above. The lag, the conjuring of variables not included to bring it back to reality, and then the questionable nature of putting a busted - or at leasts, burning oil and lagging the field - model out front of the voting public. I did it calmly, no swears.  Really.

    The comment was deleted. 

    I just think that when you put out projections, in Le Devoir and the Globe, before an election, you're not just running an interesting experiment - you're claiming some expertise. And when you admit in public your model is lagging badly, adjust it on the fly, conjure up magic explanations, and expect your post-election projections to be better than the ones you publish - and you just don't seem to get that your projections will INFLUENCE the results - you've lost your credibility. There's no way to justify that, any more than a pollster coming on and giving their final projections knowing full well they'd only been phoning people whose names began with Mac.

    Bah! Bah humbug I say!

    And bah massage parlours, as well! 


    by quinn esq on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 4:30pm

    Deleting comments is hardly ever a good thing, I agree. I think ThreeHundredEight.com has done a somewhat better job today, with their summary of projected ceilings for each of the parties. In their own best-case scenario, the Tories win 167 seats, 12 more than needed for a majority -- but the poll aggregator admits that's a stretch.
     
     
    If the Liberals do as well as their most favorable polls suggest, the Tories get 131.
    If the NDP performs to its peak polling numbers, the Tories take 142 seats -- just two less than they hold now.
    So the expected Tory range is between 131 and 167 seats.
    The Liberal range range is between 29 and 84.
    The New Democrats can expect somewhere between 63 and 126 seats.
    The Bloc swings between 11 and 30.
     
    It doesn't really work that way, but if we split the differences between a party's high estimates and lows, we get:
    Conservatives 149 (a minority government)
    New Democrats 94.5 seats (official opposition)
    Liberals 56.5 seats
    Bloc 20.5 seats
     
    Total them up, and you get 320.5 seats, whereas there are only 308 in Parliament. I told you beforehand it didn't really work that way.
    So deduct the extra 12.5 seats more or less proportionately from each party, and you get:
    Conservatives 144 (exactly what they hold now)
    New Democrats 91
    Liberals 54
    Bloc 19
     
    That's not an outlandish prediction, I think, even if it's derived from my totally ad-hoc reprocessing of 308's figures. It perhaps works because it accepts as its raw material the best poll results a party racked up in the past week, without factoring stuff in, rolling in old polls or otherwise smoothing the numbers.
    The NDP and Liberals combined would still be 10 short of what Layton needs to form a government, so he would need to get the backing of the separatist Bloc.
    Interesting times, folks!

    by acanuck on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 6:32pm

    If we ignore the complete scandal (and get past me being pissed at Mr Happy Deleter), I'd say his model is showing one additional weakness. Namely, when a party gets a very large increase in votes, he seems to model it as some form of proportional increase across the seats. Now, he knows it doesn't work that way for incumbents, and ministers and star candidates. But he has little/no special considerations built into "insurgent" candidates such as the NDP. Thus, he can't seem to "see" which NDP candidates will only add 80%, and which 150%. 

    It might have been useful for him to look in particular at Ontario, where we know precisely this happened under Bob Rae. It would have helped him adjust if he had a sense that a party had previously gotten 200% of existing voting levels in a seat, or whether 50% was their historic peak. Am I making sense? (And if so, what have I been drinking?)

    The point of this is that the NDP ceiling in Ontario is 34% he says, same as the Liberal. Yet he sees the Liberals SEAT ceiling as 42, the NDP's at 27. With 106 seats at stake, for the NDP to score 34% and only get 27 seats would be some kinda miracle/freak-of-nature. There's just no way that can happen, as the NDP doesn't have many (any?) seats where they would be wasting their votes by racking up 60%-70%. I'll shut up about 308 now. ;-)

    Anyway, at this point, it's all down now to... scandal (anti-NDP)... GOTV (anti-NDP).... and the Will of God (way pro-NDP.) ;-)


    by quinn esq on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 8:05pm

    Oh my! The New Democratic candidate has pulled within half a percentage point of Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe in Laurier--Sainte-Marie. Ack!


    by acanuck on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 7:26pm

    And well you might squeak 'Ack!' canukie-wookie.  ;o)


    by we are stardust on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 7:56pm

    See that? That "ack" he did there? 

    Harumph. 

    Told ya.


    by quinn esq on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 8:06pm

    Told ya you and Bruce are baaaaaad influences.  Obey, too. I, on the other hand... Oh.  Well.  Don't listen to that Done-do donall; he's just a consummate and perpetual Needler to people of my particular ilk.


    by we are stardust on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 8:40pm

    Just noticed, over at TPM, that Eric Kleefeld has a sort of Canadian election primer up (not as good as mine, but decently factual). Worth a read if you haven't had your fill here. Some of the comments aren't bad either.

    I haven't been following the network news religiously, but it seems odd how few U.S. media have picked up on the idea a Canadian election might be interesting for once.


    by acanuck on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 8:48pm

    If I got to hand out assignments I would put you and Quinn to work writing a blog intended for a wide U.S. audience outlining and explaining the recent history and  dynamics of Canadian politics, and the significance of the good turn you think is about to come about. I apologize for being as ignorant [almost?] as other U.S. Americans about Canadian politics and so I don't have ideas to tie to the names you throw out or the various parties you mention but I am guessing/assuming that if I knew enough to write it that I would be as excited as you guys are. I don't know who I am pulling for except that it is the same guys that you guys are pulling for. I hope you are jumpin' for joy after the results come in. Bueno!

     


    by A Guy Called LULU on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 9:08pm

    Well, I've been trying to avoid making the one obvious extrapolation to American politics from all this, but here goes. Even though everyone was expecting the Republican-type party to gain increased backing and form a majority and run the country for the next 4 years, all the energy formed up around a different region of the political spectrum entirely. That region NOT being the traditional center-liberal party - which had become more and more corporate - even though it was being led by an extremely intelligent, well-educated, media-savvy moderate. Rather, the public was found to be disgusted with BOTH these old centers of power, and rather, got tapped further out on the left. Turn to the bottom of the NDP platform page (link below) and those 5, fairly calm, promises are all there really was. But then compare with the Dems today. The NDP is promising to help on health care, increase your pension, cut small business taxes, control credit cards and help with energy and telephone bills, and help clean up politics. In short, cutting the pressures on you and your budget. As opposed to... cutting Medicare and Social Security, etc. And while Jack personally may be likeable, what he's most known for is being a bike-riding green, for being pro-cities, consistently anti-war and pro-immigrant.

    http://www.ndp.ca/platform

    There'll be lots of ways to slice this, and it's certainly not that a carbon copy of the NDP campaign is needed, but what absolutely cannot be missed is WHERE THE ENERGY IS - AND THAT'S FURTHER LEFT. And that goes, even though the experts, the discussion, the polls, all of it SEEMED to say it'd be further Right.

    Seems to me that Wisconsin also held a similar tale. 

    Might be something we're missing with the "tack toward the Republicans" strategy. 


    by quinn esq on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 11:02pm

    Best of luck to Canada, and to the U.S. as well.

    Show us the way, Quinn.


    by bwakfat on Sat, 04/30/2011 - 11:09pm

    Thanks..Now I have to assume some more that you think he can deliver on his campaign promises, or at least move things in that direction, and that he is an honest man, or you would not be excited. I hope it happens and I hope it then becomes an example we folks down south can look to for inspiration. We might have to adopt a parliamentary system first, though.


    by A Guy Called LULU on Sun, 05/01/2011 - 12:43am

    There's also this useful take by David Frum, everyone's favorite Canadian conservative (or not).

    ... don’t credit Jack Layton [the NDP leader] too much. The NDP did not earn its Quebec surge. It did not recruit good candidates, it did not build an infrastructure in the province. Layton is the beneficiary of political change, not its author. ...

    If you want to credit anything, credit a mega-trend in the Canadian economy. Canada used to be a big Michigan: a manufacturing economy with some resource industries attached. Suddenly Canada finds itself a big Norway: an energy economy with some services and manufacturing attached.

    ... This change in the Canadian economy is shaking Canadian politics. Those regions that feel they are losing ground want more help from government than the Liberals will give. Those regions that are gaining ground want less government intervention than the Liberals can accept.

    The old Liberal game — campaign left, govern right — no longer works. The prospering parts of Canada no longer trust Liberal governance. The distressed parts of Canada are no longer satisfied with Liberal campaigning. The Liberals used to hold the centre, both geographic and ideological, and squeeze the margins. Now the margins are having their revenge: It is the centre that is being squeezed.

    In short, there isn't much of a market of centrist government anymore. And the Liberals have failed to adjust accordingly, failed to tack left where the electorate is.

    I think there is a lot of truth to this, though Layton clearly deserves a lot of credit for (i) drawing Quebec leftists away from the separatist Bloc Quebecois, and (ii) presenting the country with a credible leftist Prime Ministerial leader that leaves people comfortable with moving away from the 'serious' party of government, the Liberals.


    by Obey on Sun, 05/01/2011 - 1:23am

    More than 24 hours before the first vote is counted, lots of people are gaming out post-election scenarios: which party leader resigns first, which gets first shot at forming a government, who gets second, etc. All of it predicated on the New Democratic surge holding up tomorrow and all those new converts turning out to vote. If it does (and if they do) Stephen Harper won't get the majority government he firmly expected when the election was called a month ago.

    He'll almost certainly get the most seats, so he could try to govern from a minority position. But this would be his third minority government in a row. It's starting to get old. It's also becoming clear Harper will never persuade Canadian voters to trust him with unrestricted power. They'd rather take a chance on a coalition of the center-left. Which is what we just might get. As Randy Boswell explains, they've worked very successfully in the past:

    http://www.vancouversun.com/news/decision-canada/Liberals+have+long+history+operation/4691323/story.html


    by acanuck on Sun, 05/01/2011 - 4:43pm

    My apologies to quinn, who hates ThreeHundredEight and their methodology, in that order, but they've just released their aggregate of the final day's polling. Here are their final predictions of seats and vote percentages:

    Conservatives     143  seats    36.4%   
    New Democrats    78              27.3
    Liberals                60              22.8
    Bloc Québécois    27                6.7
    (A further 5.6% say they'll vote for the Green Party, but I expect many will switch in the voting booth, quite possibly to the eco-friendly NDP.)
    The big news from this aggregate of 10 polls is that the NDP surge didn't collapse over the final weekend of the campaign. In fact the party gained 2.2% overnight, for an increase of 19 seats over yesterday's prediction. The Bloc fell an equally impressive 1.7 per cent, for a loss of 13 seats. The Liberals fell 1.3 per cent, costing them five seats, while the Conservatives basically held their ground, losing just one seat to the NDP.
    Will all those professed New Democratic converts turn out to vote? Will the party gain a further one or two percentage points of support by the time polls open six hours from now, putting it into the 90/100-seat range? Impossible to predict in this most volatile, exciting Canadian federal election ever.
    On the individual riding level, some projected results are mind-boggling. My constituency, considered a safe Liberal seat, is going to the NDP by a full 51%. Thomas Mulcair, who at present is the only New Democratic MP from the province, is racking up 64.5% support. Gilles Duceppe, leader of the Bloc Québécois for the past decade and a half, is within 0.2% of losing his seat to a Dipper.
    Can't wait to cast my ballot, and pop me some popcorn.

    by acanuck on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 3:03am

    Don't get me started on those 308 jokers. I looked at 6 polling firms results last night - all ones that he listed and included at 308 - and every one had the NDP at 30%-33%. Naturally, his model concludes with 27%. And it's just as I said, you get ENORMOUS seat increases as your popular vote increases past a certain point. Basically, it's 10 seats for every 1% at this level, so an extra 3-6% is easily the difference between the NDP looking like interesting upstarts (78 seats) and serious challengers for the crown (100 seats and up.) 

    His model, as I read it, takes the polls, and then adds in all sorts of fancy features like incumbency, being in cabinet, star candidate etc, to "refine" the results. What it doesn't have is some clause that says, if the NDP surges, they probably can't get out the vote, so our broken numbers may end up being justified by the back door. And I was really quite miffed when I saw his projections - taken as a LEADING EXPERT - spread across the Globe and elsewhere.

    The right thing to do would have been to yank the results, when you cannot even get step one - the polling results - to show usefully. Rule 1 - do no harm.

    And also, bah. ;-) 

    Gotta vote gotta vote! 


    by quinn esq on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:38am

    As sleep beckons, I thought I should warn the canadophiles among you not to expect live-blogging of the election results today (Monday) -- at least not before 10 p.m. ET, when the polls close in British Columbia.

    There's the little matter of a $25,000 fine for broadcasting, tweeting, or otherwise communicating vote results to people who could potentially still vote. Posting them at dagblog would be surely be illegal. I'll weigh in as soon as I can.

    http://www.globalmontreal.com/decisioncanada/Elections+Canada+stands+firm+social+media+election+night/4656122/story.html

    I wonder what Elections Canada will do about CNN and other U.S. news outlets, who will have known election results from Newfoundland and the Maritimes for several hours. Will someone with a kill switch cut off my cable if they try to broadcast them? There was talk of revising the 80-year-old law, but it didn't happen for this election. 

    So unless someone's got $25,000 they're ready to put up on my behalf ...


    by acanuck on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 4:03am

    I'm pretty sure Obey's rich.

    In fact, yeah, I know he is. Rich. Rich as hell.

    He can pay for both of us probably. 

    In fact, once our Commies New Democrats come into power, can't we have him imprisoned and take all his money or somesuch? I think that's how it works now.

    Popcorn. Good idea. And some of Obey's liquor.


    by quinn esq on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 11:15am