Deadman's picture

    We need more panic, not less ...

    Damn, I thought I was going out on a limb when I called for a violent (though short-lived) rally to the upside. But if the press and the pundits who speak their mind in the press are any indication, that's a very crowded limb.

    I've been watching CNBC A LOT for the past few days, and it seems like nearly everyone is looking at this crash as a great buying opportunity, telling people not to panic, saying a bottom is at hand and a violent rally is on its way.

    And sure enough, it looks like the bottom seekers are out in full force this morning, completely reversing a panicky, early 600-plus point loss on the Dow that brought us to an 8000 level we haven't seen since 2003. It's almost perfectly textbook.

    I understand that the press doesn't want to be seen as fanning the flames, and a lot of the pundits have (third-degree burned) skin in the game and are engaged in some unsurprising wishful thinking. And they're probably right - surely if you have any kind of long-term horizon, this is a better time to buy than sell - but it's all making me nervous because lasting bottoms generally only come when no one wants to buy ... when you can see the whites of their eyes, so to speak.

    The complacency is unsettling ... This is scary stuff. These are unprecedented events. The economy is on the brink (and whether the market bottoms here or not, Main Street is due for a long period of suffering).

    What's worse is that so many of these people have been naysaying the problems all the way down - Vince Farrell, Brian Wesbury, Erin Burnett, Larry Kudlow, the list goes on and on. I wish the pollyannas would say 'We were wrong, so we honestly can't now say we know what's going to happen.'

    And now that I've gone out on that crowded limb calling for a short-term bottom and a violent rally, I hope I don't have to join them.



    No offense, but I hope that you do join them. Wouldn't it be lovely if it this was as bad as it got, and we rebounded happily in 2009?

    I'm afraid to read the financial news these days.

    one thing to remember. usually in a recession, the stock market performs well cause it has already discounted the bad news and is beginning to anticipate a recovery. however, i do think this won't be your garden-variety recession and i was calling only for a short-term but dramatic rally - alas, i'm feeling less and less certain of that call.

    I'm afraid to read the financial news these days.

    Me too. Damn.

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