Is it time for Hillary Clinton to withdraw from the race for President?

    HillaryOver the past few days an awful lot of bad news about and for Hillary Clinton has come out. First the polls: In New Hampshire, she may well be behind Vermont's Senator Bernie Sanders. CNN and Fox polls of Democratic primary voters, released within the past few days show her support below 50% for the first time in this election cycle, including in must-win states Pennsylvania and Ohio. In two short weeks, Sanders halved her 36% lead nationally over him.

    Breakdowns of the national polls document that Clinton's support among women has waned more than it has among men over the past month.  National Nurses United - a union which comprises 90% women - has endorsed Sanders lending further support for the notion that Clinton's firewall of Democratic women may be starting to melt. It is true that the 1.8 million member American Federation of Teachers (AFT), which is also predominantly female, supports Clinton in this election cycle just as it did in 2008 when it sided with her over Barack Obama. But it is also true that AFT's Randi Weingarten is a longtime Clinton ally who sits on the Board of the Pro-Clinton PAC Priorities USA.

    Highly publicized confrontations, orchestrated by #BlackLivesMatter (BLM) in Phoenix and Seattle, with Bernie Sanders do not appear to have blunted his momentum. Indeed, video of the nearly 73-year old Sanders gamely offering to shake hands with two young women in Seattle who proceeded to shout him off the podium may well help his cause in the long run.

    Moreover, it now appears that BLM's most prominent organizer and media promoter Shaun King, who has criticized Sanders aggressively at DailyKos, is [may be] a white man who has been passing as bi-racial. [Please see correction at bottom]. Assuming this is true, the legitimacy of King's and, by extension BLM's attacks on Sanders must be questioned.

    In fact, Sanders would appear to have a significant potential upside with people of color, who are least likely to be familiar with him and his record. He has a long and impressive history of championing civil rights, economic justice for all Americans, and, before Clinton did, calling for an end to abusive police practices.

    By contrast, Clinton's support among blacks may have crested. Clinton received positive grades from some supporters for her sit-down with BLM activists and influential New York Times and columnist Charles Blow acknowledged she was “agile and evasive”. Ultimately though, he called her refusal to acknowledge “her and her husband’s role in giving America the dubious distinction of having the world’s highest incarceration rate” “stunning”, “telling”, and “vexing”.

    African-Americans tend to be more skeptical than other Americans of the good faith of Israel's leaders and more angry about that country's periodic military spasms against the Palestinian people. For nearly thirty years, Sanders has criticized Israeli hardliners and justified his endorsement of Jesse Jackson's Presidential bid in 1988 by noting Jackson's support for Palestinian self-determination. Over the past year, he has been upfront in his opposition to Israel's 2014 attack on Gaza. Again, as African-Americans become more familiar with Sanders, many are likely to support him.

    Clinton's woes are also apparent in ongoing news about her email practices at the State Department which at a minimum violated the applicable Federal regulation and which may be responsible for her recent drop in the polls. Surveying the political landscape two days ago, the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza concluded “maybe Hillary Clinton just isn't a very good candidate”.

    This past Monday Guardian columnist Mary Dejevsky, who calls herself a Clinton “fan”, urged the candidate to “bow out with grace” because the enormous “baggage” she carries would make it impossible for her to govern effectively if she were to prevail in the general election. Dejevsky contends that Clinton's divisiveness is “not primarily because she is a woman”.

    I am not a Clinton fan. I hope she does withdraw and endorse Bernie Sanders. Nevertheless, from her perspective, none of the above, should be enough to cause her to stop a campaign which retains formidable advantages.

    But Clinton faces a more daunting problem than falling but still very robust poll numbers, a doubtful commitment to liberal causes, and email peccadilloes. Ultimately, her election strategy is mostly the same as the one that worked so well for her husband - present a relatively, but not outrageously, progressive persona on social issues coupled with a neo-liberal economic agenda.

    Such an approach worked well for Bill for several reasons. The people most attracted to his apparently socially progressive stance on issues like gays in the military and choice were highly educated upper middle-class professionals - the kind of people who could and did contribute significantly to both of his Presidential campaigns.

    Clinton was also helped in 1992 by the fact that George H.W. Bush had broken his promise not to enact new taxes. This meant that the Republican did not have a lock on top earners concerned solely with after-tax income. Although Clinton did push through a hike in the top marginal tax rate in 1993, he also signed NAFTA, and pushed through welfare reform in his first term, as he had promised to do. This record meant that he could count on considerable support from relatively large elements of the 1%.

    Clinton's faux-populism should have harmed his status with working-class voters and it probably did to some extent. But his personal charm won over many “Bubbas” and “Bubbettes”. Moreover, organized labor was by the early and mid-90s in very difficult straits and reasonably viewed Clinton's Republican opponents as worse than he was on labor issues.

    The political landscape has shifted tectonically since the mid-90s. Some one-percenters are so rich that they can single-handedly finance campaigns. Those who are doing so are united against Clinton and are making it very difficult for her to garner the funds she needs to compete. Sanders who relies on word-of-mouth support and small contributions does not have to worry about attracting or alienating wealthy donors.

    To raise sufficient money from the merely super-rich, as opposed to the uber-rich, Clinton must tailor her message at least somewhat to their interests. But, in order to appeal to Democratic primary voters, Clinton must keep her distance from the upper crust. In the age of internet, any wobbles towards corporatism will be trumpeted loud and clear. It is possible a politician as skillful and charming as Bill might have been able to square this circle, but it seems that many Americans find Hillary's personality less compelling.

    Is there a way out for Hillary? It's hard to see it. Her long history of cozying up to moneyed and corporate interests has not led to overwhelming financial support from them but it has led to fragmented support for her from the labor movement. Some liberal activists perceive her moves to the left as feints or insincere. On the other hand, she cannot move right without losing the still very strong support she has from first and second-wave feminists.

    Hillary may still win. On Monday, Nate Silver pegged her chances of winning the Democratic nomination at 85%. But, her poll numbers keep falling, most Americans view her negatively. She is boxed in politically and is facing legitimate questions about her email practices at the State Department. It's definitely time for her to look back on an extraordinarily productive and successful public life with satisfaction and to consider whether she can now best serve America by supporting a less compromised Democratic candidate for President.

    [Correction - When I posted this article, Daily Beast which I consider to be a reputable news site was reporting that King was white based on his birth certificate which lists both of his parents as white.  Since then, King has stated that the man listed as his father on the birth certificate may not be his biological father and that his mother told him his real father was a light-skinned black man.  Accordingly, I have corrected the pertinent section of this blog to reflect this new information.]

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    Comments

    Should Hillary withdraw?  You wrote that Nate Silver gives her an 85% edge among Democrats.  There is nothing in what you wrote that would be cause for Hillary to give up the race.  

    Hillary is not Bill.

    The email "scandal" is a nothingburger.  

    "Some liberal activists perceive her moves to the left as feints or insincere."  And some don't.

    The baggage she carries is not "enormous".  Everything she does is subject to more scrutiny than any other candidate has ever had to deal with.  In that light, it only looks "enormous".

    Hillary is not perfect, by any means, but neither is anyone else. 

    You admit you're not a fan.  (I think we knew that already.  Lol.)

    So, no.  She shouldn't withdraw.

    And with that, I shall withdraw.  I think we've had this conversation before.


    Charles Blow's analysis has zero impact in the Black community. Hillary's interaction with BLM comes off as her asking them what BLM would like to have her try to implement. Bernie is still perceived as the guy who walks off stage. Hillary has a stint in Obama's cabinet. Bill is playing golf with Vernon Jordan and "runs into" Obama on the course. Joe Biden looks for his friend "mouse at the NAACP national convention. Bernie has worked for Civil Rights but has not appeared in a mostly black venue. He does not have a prominent black voice pumping up Sanders credentials.  If he sticks to white Progressives only, he will lose the black and Latino vote.

    Bernie is going to have to talk about his approach to the Middle East, gun control, and a host of other issues. He may lose some of his luster over time. Many minority voters don't even know Bernie Sanders. Sanders has a lot of work to do. Clinton was an unknown. Obama was an unknown. Clinton had to work to get black voters. Obama had to work to get black and white voters. It's time for Sanders to get on the j-o-b. 


    Short answer? No.

    If the Red Sox halve the Yankees' division lead this month, should the Yankees concede? Much as I would like the answer to be yes, the answer is "Of course not." Because sometimes half of an enormous lead is still a pretty big lead.

    Hillary is way ahead. Bernie halving her lead in the summer silly season means that she still has a formidable double-digit margin. She's only beating him by 18%? How is that "only?" Bernie's near his ceiling of natural support, and he's still getting crushed. He's the one who needs to change his strategy to reach out to voters outside his base. If he doesn't make an, ahem, radical change in the way this race is going, Bernie is toast.

    And you should step back and look at your BLM argument, Hal. That one activist turned out to be a problematic individual does not mean that the larger movement is going away, or that it should go away. Most voters sympathetic to BLM don't know who Shaun King is, and they aren't going to stop caring about cops killing unarmed people because some activist they've never heard of has been personally misleading.



    The embedded link Hal used in his reference to Mr. King is to the Daily Beast - which now leads to "Page Not Found". Yes, he passed along erroneous reporting, but I find this far more egregious: Assuming this is true, the legitimacy of King's and, by extension BLM's attacks on Sanders must be questioned. Even if the story had been true, it is an absurd statement.


    I don't want to pile on here but there is a report that both Hal and Bernie have just been busted on Ashley Madison.


    To be fair, that was HAL from 2001 and Bernie Madoff.


    I feel very bad terrible about accepting the Daily Beast's conclusion earlier today.  I should have been more skeptical.  It is true that King has acknowledged that both parents on his birth certificate are white but that's obviously not the end of the story.  I have corrected my blog to reflect more accurately where it is now.


    That's a correction?


    The correction is in the body of the main post.


    Yeah, we saw it.  Even though the story you linked to was thoroughly discredited, you're still casting doubts about the guy's description of his heritage and you're still claiming this somehow undermines the BLM movement.  You're correcting your cake and eating it too.


    The story has not been discredited.  Shaun King acknowledged, after I posted the blog, that both parents identified on his birth certificate are white.  He says, however, that his understanding is that his real father is a different man than the one on his birth certificate.


    Right.  So you now have no basis to say that he "may be a white man who is passing as biracial."


    I would say one's birth certificate provides a prima facie basis of who one's parents are.


    How about this guy listed on the birth certificate of a child that his wife had with another man.DNA proved that he wasn't the father.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3010327/I-went-without-electrici...


    I'll assume he knows more about his family history than you do. There's no test to get on a birth certificate. What's next, Hal? You going to ask to see the long form?


    Attempting to smear the entire BLM operation over this nonsense is appalling. 


    Long form, pffts.. let's Breitbart him the entire way, let's demand DNA, let's expose his mother, let's drag them through the mud to prove something. Let's get on this bandwagon, let's pick up our pitchforks and run with this, and even when lies have been exposed let's repeat them anyway.  Lee Atwater lives! Woooooooo!


    Jeez, mama's baby is papa's maybe - didntcha know? A reasonable guess of 1-3% of men are unwittingly raising some other man's child. Perhaps more in 2015 but maybe not - the Tudor lineage went off the rails somewhere and no one knows quite which lass shared her ass. http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30281333&ved=0CBsQFjAAahUKEw...

    On the email issue, you're starting to sound like my neighbor, Benjamin Gossy.  He says the nuttiest things about Hillary!

    As for her neoliberal economic policies, I think we can emphasize the "liberal" part of that. Per The New York Times:

    Mrs. Clinton will also propose more investment in infrastructure, tax relief for small businesses, better access to child care, assistance to make college more affordable, stronger support for collective bargaining and tax increases on the wealthiest Americans.

    What exactly do you disagree with there?  Admittedly, she's not going to put a bunch of Greenwich billionaires up against the wall, but neither is Sanders!

    Hillary may will still win.

    Fixed that for you.


    Hal, Bernie Sanders is not in the lead. Hillary is not withdrawing. What does Bernie Sanders have to do to win over more voters? What changes are needed for his campaign to succeed?


    National Nurses United has 185,000, while AFT has 1.8 million - and where "AFT members support Hillary by more than 3 to 1" that's over 1.3 million Hillary votes out of the box.

    How did NNU pick their endorsement?

    However, NNU spokesperson Martha Wallner said the decision to choose Sanders ran deeper than Keystone XL. In a phone interview, Wallner said all three candidates had competed for the endorsement by filling out a seven-question survey about issues that aligned with NNU’s values — and only Sanders scored a 100 percent. O’Malley scored 86 percent, and Clinton scored just 43 percent, she said.

    “We want it all,” Wallner said. “It goes far beyond just Keystone XL.”

    ThinkProgress reviewed a copy of each candidates’ answers to the survey, and the resulting scorecard created by the NNU Executive Council. Clinton answered “no commitment” on four out of seven issues. One of those was, of course, in response to whether she would oppose the Keystone XL pipeline. But Clinton would also not commit to supporting “a publicly administered, single-payer, universal healthcare system,” nor would she commit to supporting legislation to impose a .5 percent tax on Wall Street speculation. She also would not commit to publicly opposing the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which nurses oppose because they say it allows pharmaceutical companies to block distribution of cheaper generic medications.

    At that point if I were a nurse I'd be demanding my dues money back - a candidate is non-commital on (not necessarily against) a Wall Street speculation tax or TPP or Keystone XL?  wow, what key health and work conditions issues for a nursing union to focus on. Wonder what idiot(s) drew up NNU's priorities. (& will single payer be top initiative on anyone's list where Republicans control both houses?)

    Meanwhile, we know how AFT got their issues:

    We conducted a phone survey calling more than 1 million members, commissioned a second major scientific poll from a nationally respected polling firm, and solicited your input online and in person. We wanted to know what issues mattered to you, which candidate you thought shared our values and who you believed could win. 

    Maybe "most Americans view her negatively", but for the math-enabled, a bloc of 1.3 million teacher votes is a pretty good start for a primary nomination that only needs 9 million votes max, and certainly much better than X% of 180,000.


    Depressingly, the dilemma you describe affects almost every candidate except self-funded billionaires. If Sanders can pull off a national campaign with small donations, I'll be surprised (but delighted).

    In some ways, this dilemma is even harder for Republicans. There's an interesting piece in the Atlantic about how Trump's financial independence allows him the freedom to appeal more effectively to the interests of the Republican base. He can say crazy shit about immigration, obviously, but he can also defend entitlements, which the big money conservatives despise but many in the base actually appreciate.

    PS As for Clinton's supposed decline, whatev. The pundits have to make the race seem interesting. But I don't take your hook as the real point of your post.


    Retreat?  In our moment of triumph?


    Governor Tarkin was totally beholden to the Sith elites.


    Sanders, meanwhile, has wisdom but has lived too long outside of mainstream society...


    Always two there are ... a master and an apprentice.


    LOL.. I nominate this as our COTD.


    Hal, I think Bernie's role is, as a quasi-outsider "politician" to assert the moral imperative. If he, and you, could harp on one thing, bring it into the consciousness, it would be a worthy aim. I suggest rolling back the tax cuts as a focal point because the cuts themselves have been the major contributor to wealth inequality over the last several decades. What you're doing with the laundry list is weakening your case for Bernie. What Bernie may do is weaken his potential to bring one or two things so solidly into the consciousness that they will be seen as imperatives to act. ​ 


    Hal,

    This is a great article and you've brought out some very cogent points here, many of which I've considered myself.  I've been on the fence, but leaning toward Sanders, every since the political season began, but there was something in this article (that I can't quite put my finger on) that has served to push me squarely into Bernie's corner.  I think it has a lot to do with your causing me to think back over the machinations of Bill Clinton. The more I think about his administration, the more I believe that liberals were hoodwinked by a fiscal conservative and social moderate who camouflaged his true character by wearing dark shades and playing saxophone - and as a lifelong sax player myself, very badly, I might add. 

    In addition, I'm put off by Hillary's distant and insincere personality. The woman is just a little too dispassionate for my taste.  When I listen to her speak I get the impression that the people are being "handled," while on the other hand, Bernie Sanders sounds totally sincere.  He seems to be more interested in this opportunity to get his message out than he is in actually becoming president. I really like that guy. He doesn't seem to have a conniving  bone in his body, and I think the American people will see that as well.


    Obviously we need someone more believable.


    I always admired the way Bill stood up for oral sex.


    I was a bit upset when he used the cigar. Seemed like an endorsement of tobacco use to me. Totally inappropriate in this day and age with the advancement in vibrator technology.


    Thanks Wattree.


    I wonder what it is about Hillary haters that cause them to be so antidemocratic. Instead of an election they want her to just drop out. It's the same scenario we saw back in 08. Then as now they called for her to drop out. What is it about democracy that you're afraid of?


    A little bicker about descriptive language. With myself as the only example I can be certain of though I suspect the same is true of Hal, I don't like Hillary as a candidate for POTUS,  but I don't hate her. 


    I am trying so hard not to hate her LULU.  I actually feel some, but not a lot of, sympathy for her.  If she is the Democratic nominee, I will almost certainly vote for her.


    Hal, I honestly think that when she is in the ring with a real Republican opponent, and she uses her fine intellect and experience to deal with a Bush, or whomever, that we will realize what is at stake and be happy she's there.

    I love Bernie. But to be blunt about it, the Clintons know how to deal with these assholes on the other side.


    It's always nice when somebody (Thom Hartmann) you (and others) respect  basically repeats what you already wrote.


    I don't know who Thom Hartmann is, but if that article has any basis in reality and we live in a country where self-described Republicans will vote for a pro-choice, pro-same sex marriage socialist for president, then how in the heck does he explain the last fifty years of American history?  I must have missed that episode of O'Reilly where Republicans started wanting everybody to go to college for free...


    Michael - for the answer to the question you pose, you may want to dust off your copy of "What's the Matter with Kansas?"


    Or not.


    Sanders voted for the resolution endorsing last year's slaughter in Gaza. But he was mildly critical of it in an exchange with an audience member, and at least he supports a two state solution. He seems to talk about Israel as seldom as he can, presumably because a lot of his constituents are more hostile to Israel than he is.


    Sanders was not one of the 79 Senators who formally endorsed the resolution.  Therefore, it is not accurate to say he voted for it.  On the other hand, he did not object to it when it came up for a voice vote.  http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/07/18/1314873/-Senate-Passes-Resoluti...


    Nuts. That will teach me to rely on somebody's citations, rather than going to the primary source. I guess I wouldn't make a good journalist. But I could write for Wikipedia.


    Let's talk about facts, these are stubborn things, and since you support Sanders winning the Democratic Party primary, with emphasis on the words Democratic Party, when is Bernie Sanders going become a Democrat, you know register as a member of the Democratic Party. At this point, he qualifies for exactly 0 primaries.  The parties run primaries Hal, parties pay for the printing of the damn ballots and parties organize, pay for and run caucuses. At this point Bernie Sanders does not qualify in any state to run on the Democratic Party ticket. 


    In presidential primaries, national party rules take precedence over state law, said Thomas Connolly, a spokesman for the [New York State] BOE. As long as Mr. Sanders “espouses party ideals, then actual enrollment [in the Democratic party] is not an issue.”
     

    How about, "HELL NO!?" Yes, her numbers are a little wobbly at the moment, but we are WAY too early in the process for that consideration to even be on the table. 

    I would not call myself a Hillary "fan" by any stretch of the imagination, but I have gained a lot of respect for her since the 2008 election. I think she's earned a shot at this, and even though my values are probably more in line with Bernie Sanders, I am ready for a female president. I think Bernie will pull her to the left, and ultimately, I hope she will adopt the majority of his positions.

    As far as baggage goes, yes, she's got baggage. But they all do. And the media will enjoy smacking her around. They are looking for a horse race, not a landslide. 

    In the end, I'll vote enthusiastically for whoever the Democratic nominee is, but at this point, I still hope it will be Hillary.


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