MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
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Hits of the Day
Gallup: Newt 32 (+1) Mitt 24 (-1)
By Elusive Trope on Fri, 01/27/2012 - 2:48pm |While Mitt has made a come back in Florida - 9% lead in the two latest polls, he continues his downward trend nationally. Since the national poll is a five day rolling average, in the next few days it will become apparent if his apparent Florida surge is occurring nationally.
As far as the Florida numbers, Newt's number seem to have stabilized around 30% while Mitt has increased his support. So it appears the undecideds are for the moment going Mitt's way.
Turnout will be key in Florida as it is everywhere. The question is whether Romney's national numbers reflect a level of lukewarm support, and thus less motivation to turn out to vote. This is in my opinion why the SC victory was as big as it was.
URL:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx
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Comments
Here's a link to some discussion on yesterday's events on Articleman's old "Mitt 25%" thread:
http://dagblog.com/link/mitt-gets-plummety-newt-31-mitt-25-3-12880#comme...
by artappraiser on Fri, 01/27/2012 - 4:05pm
Also too I think it behooves, in prognosticating, to keep this at the top of mind:
Like Rahm Emmanuel with "progressives," GOP leaders don't really give a flying about what the base wants on this race: Independents rool when it comes to the presidency? If Mitt can eke out wins state by state and amass delegates, they don't care if base support is lukewarm, they want the guy who can win Independents, not scare them away? Like with Rahm, it's "the base has nowhere else to go, don't worry about them"?
by artappraiser on Fri, 01/27/2012 - 4:26pm
This is a good point. The little problem for the establishment Rs right now is that Florida is a closed primary so Independents can't vote. They might be rethinking that policy right at the moment.
by Elusive Trope on Fri, 01/27/2012 - 5:12pm
I have to admit it's some comfort knowing that the GOP base finds itself in the same spot that progressives did! (Seen as a cheap source of votes.)
by erica20 on Fri, 01/27/2012 - 5:48pm
Dave Maraniss op-ed from WaPo Jan. 22:
Time to bring back Bill Clinton
It's really about Newt, the Clinton/Newt mano a mano relationship, and it's fun, like this old quote he got from Newt that he dug up, about Clinton:
“I melt when I’m around him. After I get out, I need two hours to detoxify. My people are nervous about me going in there because of the way I deal with this.”
by artappraiser on Sat, 01/28/2012 - 12:41am