MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
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MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE by Michael Wolraich Order today at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop |
By Vali Nasr, Foreign Policy, March/April, 2013
[....] my time in the Obama administration turned out to be a deeply disillusioning experience. The truth is that his administration made it extremely difficult for its own foreign-policy experts to be heard. Both Clinton and Holbrooke, two incredibly dedicated and talented people, had to fight to have their voices count on major foreign-policy initiatives.
Holbrooke never succeeded. Clinton did -- but it was often a battle. It usually happened only when it finally became clear to a White House that jealously guarded all foreign policymaking -- and then relied heavily on the military and intelligence agencies to guide its decisions -- that these agencies' solutions were no substitute for the type of patient, credible diplomacy that garners the respect and support of allies. Time and again, when things seemed to be falling apart, the administration finally turned to Clinton because it knew she was the only person who could save the situation.
One could argue that in most administrations, an inevitable imbalance exists between the military-intelligence complex [....], and the foreign-policy establishment [....]. But this administration advertised itself as something different. On the campaign trail, Obama repeatedly stressed that he wanted to get things right in the broader Middle East, reversing the damage that had resulted from the previous administration's reliance on faulty intelligence and its willingness to apply military solutions to problems it barely understood.
Not only did that not happen, but the president had a truly disturbing habit of funneling major foreign-policy decisions through a small cabal of relatively inexperienced White House advisors whose turf was strictly politics [....]
Comments
Reading this piece by Vali Nasr, it could be guessed that it is an attempt to hype interest in a new book. That is, in fact, the case. Nasr's book, from which this is an excerpt, is due out soon.
Nasr believes that Barack Obama is a dithering President whose controlling tendencies and extreme risk-averse attitude to foreign policy has damaged US interests in the Middle East.
Nasr seems to be both pushing his book and nursing a grudge. Nasr's disparaging claims regarding Obama's advisors and the careerist and ideologically driven infighting within the administration are all quite believable. He draws a picture of Obama and the other involved players on his side as being petty political actors who are cowardly, stupid, and wrong. He stresses bad motives on their part and nothing but brilliantly inciteful, analysis, and courageous action on the parts of Holbrooke and Hillary Clinton. Even in this short extract though, he reveals some contrary evidence about his heroes with internal, to the article, contradictions. Apparently, if we are to believe Nasr, most everything in Afghanistan would be better if only Holbrooke had been able to get Obama's ear.
Everything emphasized in bold are quotes from the article. Italics within bold are my emphasis. Following each quote are some of my reactions.
The Inside Story of How the White House Let Diplomacy Fail in Afghanistan
"My time in the Obama administration turned out to be a deeply disillusioning experience."
BY VALI NASR | MARCH/APRIL 2013
The White House let diplomacy fail. That indicates that they saw the alternative and rejected it or at least deliberately failed allow diplomacy to succeed, thus the deep disillusionment of the learned political scholar, Nasr. Holbrooke had convinced him that they could do so much good.
Holbrooke encouraged the creative chaos. "I want you to learn nothing from government," he told me. "This place is dead intellectually. It does not produce any ideas; it is all about turf battles and checking the box. Your job is to break through all this. Anyone gives you trouble, come to me."
Holbrook seems, by this statement, to have early on set a tone of disagreement tinged with disrespect for Obama's advisors and with the thinking, and the resultant policies, of the Administration he had just begun to work for. He tells his aid that if anyone gives him trouble regarding the dismissal of the intellectually dead thinking, the thinking that his team was charged with "breaking through", to bring the trouble to him and he implies that he will straighten it out pronto.
Still, Holbrooke knew that Afghanistan was not going to be easy. There were too many players and too many unknowns, and Obama had not given him enough authority (and would give him almost no support) to get the job done. After he took office, the president never met with Holbrooke outside large meetings and never gave him time and heard him out. The president's White House advisors were dead set against Holbrooke. Some, like Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute, were holdovers from George W. Bush's administration and thought they knew Afghanistan better and did not want to relinquish control to Holbrooke. Others (those closest to the president) wanted to settle scores for Holbrooke's tenacious campaign support of Clinton (who was herself eyed with suspicion by the Obama insiders); still others begrudged Holbrooke's storied past and wanted to end his run of success then and there. At times it appeared the White House was more interested in bringing Holbrooke down than getting the policy right.
There is plenty of evidence that there was infighting and that there was political positioning and dick waving, but all fault is, in Nasr's account, placed outside of Holbrooke's control or responsibility. Of course the important truth may be that the White House was more interested in bringing Holbrooke down than getting the policy right. Maybe. There were elections, after all. Elections with life or death implications for some.
Just before his [Holbrooke's]sudden death in December 2010, he told his wife, Kati Marton, that he thought he had finally found a way out that might just work. But he wouldn't say what he had come up with, "not until he told the president first" -- the president who did not have time to listen.
There is the teaser. There is the real tragedy hinted at. Holbrooke had figured out a solution which he wouldn't reveal even to his wife before he revealed it to Obama. If only Obama had been wiling to listen to Holbrooke before he worked himself to an early death. I wonder if that solution involved a complete new paradigm which would be a complete surprise to his working team or if maybe Nasr could hint at its substance just a bit and make that assertion just a bit more believable. Too bad the secret plan died with Holbrooke, so many more might have lived.
Skipping around within the article a bit: THE ADMINISTRATION'S INITIAL reading of the crisis in Afghanistan was to blame it on the spectacular failure of President Hamid Karzai's government, paired with wrongheaded military strategy, inadequate troop numbers for defeating an insurgency, and the Taliban's ability to find a haven and military and material support in Pakistan. Of these, Karzai's failings and the need to straighten out the military strategy dominated the discussion. Above all, the Afghanistan conflict was seen in the context of Iraq. The Taliban were viewed as an insurgency similar to the one that the United States had just helped defeat in Iraq. And what had defeated the insurgency in Iraq was a military strategy known as COIN, a boots-on-the-ground-intensive counterinsurgency.
Repeating: Above all, the Afghanistan conflict was seen in the context of Iraq. The Taliban were viewed as an insurgency similar to the one that the United States had just helped defeat in Iraq. And what had defeated the insurgency in Iraq was a military strategy known as COIN, a boots-on-the-ground-intensive counterinsurgency. The statement assumes, and invites us to believe, that we actually did win in Iraq and that boots-on-the-ground-intensive counterinsurgency was the winning method. The exact meaning of who believes this statement is a bit ambiguous but Nasr himself seems to believe that we won in Iraq and that the Obama people thought we could win in Afghanistan with the same methods. later he bounces around with his opinion as to whether the same methods would have worked in Afghanistan depending on where he is directing blame.
By September 2012, when violent anti-American protests swept the Muslim world, claiming the lives of four members of the U.S. diplomatic mission in Libya and dozens of demonstrators, it became clear that we had gotten the broader Middle East badly wrong.
No kiddin'! It doesn't take this guy long to look at a horse shoe! After studying a hundred years of history this event makes it all clicked into place for this foreign policy expert.
The American people are tired of war -- rightly so -- and they welcome talk of leaving the region. The president has marketed the U.S. exit from Afghanistan as a foreign-policy coup, one that will not only unburden America from the region's problems but also give the country the freedom it needs to pursue other, more pressing national security concerns.
This is an illusion. Ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, not to mention the broader, ill-defined "war on terror," is a very good idea, provided it is done properly and without damage to U.S. interests or the region's stability. But we should not kid ourselves that the rhetoric of departure is anything more than rhetoric; the United States is taking home its troops and winding down diplomatic and economic engagement -- but leaving behind its Predators and Special Forces. We should not expect that the region will look more kindly on drone attacks and secret raids than it did on invasion and occupation.
Yeah, we sure don't want to damage the regions stability and leaving is a good idea, but it has to be done right. That is always the argument of those who want to leave later [if they even honestly want to leave ever] rather that sooner. That, and that U.S. interests, no matter how poorly conceived, must always be pre-eminent.
During the 2009 strategic review, Clinton had supported the additional troops but was not on board with the deadline Obama imposed on the surge, nor did she support hasty troop withdrawals.
Clinton thought those decisions looked a lot like cut-and-run and would damage America's standing in the world. Add this to where she came out on a host of other national security issues -- including pushing Obama to go ahead with the Abbottabad operation to kill or capture bin Laden and breaking with the Pentagon to advocate using U.S. air power in Libya -- and it is safe to say she was, and remains, tough on national security issues.
Yes, it is safe to say that Clinton covered all the bases on various Afghanistan proposals but most important for Nasr to say here, using cliche talking points like 'cut and run' is that she is "tough on national security issues". That will be important background if she is healthy enough to run in 2016. It is obvious that Nasr hopes that she will be.
Tha main thesis is that Holbrooke and Clinton were for diplomacy, the particular diplomacy which Nasr supports, but both internal and external cynical politics over-ruled that wisdom and the fault for that lies with Obama. That wise diplomacy is described as best leveraged by a big military commitment and a willingness to convince the world we will persevere forever with military engagement if necessary in our quest to disentangle.
The White House worried that talking to the Taliban would give Holbrooke a greater role. For months, the White House plotted to either block reconciliation with the Taliban or find an alternative to Holbrooke for managing the talks. Lute, who ran AfPak at the White House, floated the idea of the distinguished U.N. diplomat Lakhdar Brahimi leading the talks. Clinton objected to outsourcing American diplomacy to the United Nations. Pakistan, too, was cool to the idea.
Notice that here it is Clinton who objects to diplomatic outreach by a U.N. representative and it could be easily believed that her objections were because any credit for any success would not be laid at her feet unless her team was seen to be in total control. Plus, The "stop Holbrooke" campaign was not only a distraction -- it was influencing policy. That is almost treason. They let their bickering influence policy? I'm shocked, shocked I say. Politics influencing policy? Definitely beyond the pale. Holbrooke must lay uneasy.
The Obama administration's approach to reconciliation, however, is not exactly what Holbrooke had in mind for a diplomatic end to the war. Holbrooke thought that the United States would enjoy its strongest leverage if it negotiated with the Taliban when the country had the maximum number of troops on the ground in Afghanistan. He had not favored the Afghanistan surge, but once the troops were there, he thought the president should use the show of force to get to a diplomatic solution.
Again, and again, let's have it both ways.
THE TRUE KEY TO ending the war, Holbrooke often told us, was to change Pakistan. Pakistan was the sanctuary that the Taliban insurgency used as a launching pad and a place to escape U.S. retaliation. But to convince Pakistan that we meant business, we first had to prove that America was going to stay.
So, Holbrooke died and his secret plan that would probably solve the situation died with him, but we do know that he believed that to get out of Afghanistan we had to convince Pakistan that we were going to stay. Nobody said that diplomacy was easy.
And what did 'staying' mean? As Nasr says:
Already in 2009, half the U.S. diplomatic mission in Pakistan worked on intelligence and counterterrorism rather than diplomacy or development. The U.S. Consulate in Peshawar was basically bricks shielding antennas. And it paid big dividends. The CIA collected critical intelligence in Pakistan that allowed for drone strikes against al Qaeda targets and on more than one occasion prevented a terrorist strike in the West. So the Obama administration began carrying out drone strikes in Pakistan on an industrial scale, decimating al Qaeda's command-and-control structure and crippling the organization.
And it paid big dividends and on more than one occasion prevented a terrorist strike in the West. really? What were the big dividends? What terrorist strikes in the West were prevented?
During my early days working with Holbrooke, when we were crafting a new Pakistan policy, one of Holbrooke's deputies asked him, "If we are going to seriously engage, shouldn't we make some changes to the drone policy, perhaps back off a bit?" Holbrooke replied, "Don't even go there. Nothing is going to change."
The new paradigm that was to be developed outside the box, while ignoring all thinking currently being done by the dead-end non-thinkers in Washington, but was not to even consider trying to change the drone strike policy which is so obviously causing severe blow-back. "Don't even go there". Brilliant!
In one of Clinton's first meetings with Pakistan's military and intelligence chiefs, she asked them point blank to tell her what their vision for Pakistan was: "Would Pakistan become like North Korea? I am just curious. I would like to hear where you see your country going." The generals were at a loss for words.
Wow! That is tough. She asked them point blank, right to their surprised faces. She asked a question that tough. Point blank. They couldn't even respond. The Iron Maven puts them on the spot big time. I bet she even frowned at them.
After the 2011 bin Laden operation in Abbottabad, Washington was in no mood to soft-pedal what it saw as Pakistani duplicity. Pressure started to build on Pakistan. Gone were promises of aid and assistance, strategic partnership, and long-lasting ties. The administration threatened to cut aid and shamed and embarrassed Pakistan through public criticisms and media leaks. Some leaks retold familiar tales of Pakistan's reluctance to cooperate; others revealed dark truths about how Pakistani intelligence had manipulated public opinion and even gone so far as to silence journalists permanently.
Yeah, some leaks retold familiar tales of Pakistan's reluctance to cooperate; others revealed dark truths about how Pakistani intelligence had manipulated public opinion and even gone so far as to silence journalists permanently. Those dirty dogs. How ya gonna deal with folks like those? Folks whose intelligence services do dark deeds and who manipulate public opinions? Do they really even try to silence journalists? I wouldn't put it past them. Do they even crack down brutally on whistle blowers? Dothey have no democratic values at all regarding free speech and truth-telling that might be encouraged to flourish so that democracy could itself flourish? Did our governments leaks of their duplicity really make them ashamed of themselves? Might our own government ever have that same reaction" Na, I doubt it.
Mine is a meandering, disjointed, poorly constructed critique of a poorly constructed excerpt from what is probably a poorly written book. While I suspect that much of what is asserted in the article is correct, that does not save it from being one sided propaganda which is a part of the political infighting, and which is at the same time a comically ironic example of the very kind of political infighting which he blames for the failure which is featured in his title. In my opinion, Nasr is revealed in this instance to be a political and intellectual hack who is trying to sell a book which will make him a few bucks and burnish his history and pad his resume. I don't think he offers much valuable insight. I am for diplomacy first and second but I would appreciate much better information than is provided here on what that better diplomacy might offer.
Arta, I am not supposing that you support everything or even anything in this article. I'm glad you linked to it and I am glad that I read it.
by A Guy Called LULU on Tue, 03/05/2013 - 4:01pm
A bit surprised you're so negative.
Nasr isn't saying anything outrageous. Obama got smacked for saying he'd talk to our enemies without preconditions, so instead he just doesn't talk to our enemies. Hell, we don't even talk to our friends - EU diplomacy used to be a field in its own right, now it's just a low priority discussion on banks. We blew off the global warming talks, nothing to discuss there... In Kosovo, Yeltsin was restrained and fairly supportive. Bush relied on Putin to get the Northern Alliance moving and Blair to be his poodle. Our allies now are an Israelis president who despises Obama and Saudi Arabia to help us out in Yemen and Bahrain. Turkey is sidelined, and haven't heard Japan come up in ages.
Under Bush, all issues ran through the political apparatus headed by Rove. Nasr is intimating that this didn't change much after 2008 - surprised?
The AUMF on Iraq that Hillary support got Hussein to readmit weapons inspectors and start cooperating with Hans Blix - unlikely without a military threat. What didn't happen is a post-cooperation diplomacy round to find the right guarantees of Iraq non-involvement in terrorism. Instead we denied cooperation happened, and invaded.
What we have now is all stick, no carrot, or something vague like "completely capitulate and we'll open up negotiations". This isn't just government - it's the public mood. I was amazed here the negative swipes at Dennis Rodman for a lighthearted game of hoops in North Korea - can't we have any friendly diversion to break an impasse, or is that too much a sign of weakness in the war on terruh? The comments at FP magazine are equally depressing.
What I think Holbrooke was getting to with $50 billion was not a real Marshall Plan for Pakistan, but just an amount and intent that didn't leave everything swallowed by military projects and military goals - a program that would for once address social & economic ills - something to imply we're more than a military (distrusting) ally of convenience. But like with Egypt, our aid just goes to ensure military cooperation, and the larger social dangers can fend for themselves.
Our Defense budget is about $700 billion, intelligence about $80 billion, Homeland Security another $60 billion. State only gets about $55 billion, and roughly $10 billion of that is tied to the 3 war zones Iraq/Afghanistan/Pakistan, including quasi-military duties like police training. There's just no way that State wins a pissing contest with DoD & NSA, and Congress favors whoever has the highest budget.
Aside from that, is it a surprise Hillary would be sidelined - wasn't that the big reason for giving her the job? - and her choice Holbrooke as well? Hasn't Petraeus' surge & counter-insurgency been our great white hope for the better part of a decade?
And surprised that drones are sacrosanct? For one, without them we need real people in combat - unacceptable at the top and ultimately unacceptable to the voting populace. Both heavy human & $ costs involved. Holbrook's not stupid - he can figure out as well as Greenwald that drone strikes antagonize the foreign population - but that population doesn't vote in US elections.
Re: Holbrooke's "ah-hah" idea, I think it was apocryphal, to give the idea that Holbrooke no longer divulged to his wife what might be shot down by the big boss. Sure there might have been an inkling of how to get out of the morass, but without a Holbrooke or someone with similar clarity banging heads and smoothing egos, it wouldn't get through the bureaucracy.
by Anonymous PP (not verified) on Wed, 03/06/2013 - 4:45am
My level of negativity regarding our foreign policy is about where it has been for the last forty or so years. It is way up there. FP has a good reputation, probably well deserved, but this article is, IMO, a weak attack on the author's former rivals even though his criticisms of them sounds accurate.
The negativity I intended to express here is with Nasr's story of the recent foreign policy failure as expressed from his 'insider' status. Being on one of the two sides which he casts as opposed to each other for various reasons outside the realm of the problem they were addressing makes it hard to deliver an unbiased assessment of what happened and he doesn't even seem to pretend to try very hard. He is still fighting the insider power game and describing his fight as a narrative of the history. We will never have an accepted history because there will be no winner to write it. That would be no different, I believe, if Holbrooke's policies had been implemented, but I guess we will never no for sure.
The only smart policy idea I saw in his piece was that of General Kayani.
by A Guy Called LULU on Wed, 03/06/2013 - 12:57pm
This from Consortium News. Paul Pillar does a much better job expressing approximately what I intended.
http://consortiumnews.com/2013/03/05/establishment-foreign-policy-compla...
by A Guy Called LULU on Wed, 03/06/2013 - 1:47pm
Oh yes, we need a balanced viewpoint because we just haven't had enough pro-surge nirvana-land assessments for the last decade - we'll just have to wait for a definitive one.
And it's sinful to be overly loyal to Holbrooke, vs. overly loyal to Obama.
What exactly would have been the purpose of making it somehow balanced? The point is that State lost, and has little power to shape things. There won't be a Hillary action figure like there are of Seals getting Osama bin Laden.
But more importantly, we see a variety of issues that should be obvious (stop by EmptyWheel for the usual search):
- the US' indefinite detention center at Bagram (Parwan) has become a huge black eye for us, that Karzai is taking it over and "releasing innocents".
- drone strikes and the killing of 24 Pakistani soldiers caused a closing of NATO supply lines, and the US uses drone strikes to embarrass Pakistan and pressure the ISI when we don't get what we want. Nevertheless, drones remain popular even with many on the left - kinda like when everyone was gushing over Patriot missiles after Gulf War I. Is it surprising for Holbrooke to recognize this and accept a bridge too far?
- re: Kayani, Marcie has been noting the training of Afghan troops has been a covered-up failure from the beginning, and parallels excessive optimism in Iraq - a Petraeus trademark. The rise in green-on-blue at attacks was another sign, but these were kept a bit hush-hush through election season
- the basics of negotiating from strongest position is reiterated - why you find this a quandary, I don't know. The Vietnamese agreed to all sorts of stuff tongue-in-cheek as we were headed out the door, and reneged on everything a few months later. Bringing the Taliban into a stable settlement when we had 100,000 troops able to do some coordination is much more likely than with only a tenuous 30,000, no? And if they think they won (they've been fighting for decades, 2 years more is nothing) why would they compromise?
- Obama has numerous times has appointed people and then hung them out to dry - Dawn Johnson being one of the better known ones. Why it surprises that Holbrooke was relatively unempowered in the end?
- Right now the debate in the US is over whether the commander-in-chief has the right to targeted assassinations of US citizens on US soil even without the AUMF, and the Senate seems to be saying yes, Article II gives him this as Commander-in-Chief. Is there a better example of diplomacy being on the back seat and military methods on the rise? Obama already gave himself power to take up military action in Mali & Algeria a month ago. When was the last time we even considered diplomacy? Certainly not with Iran, and Dennis Rodman seems to be an embarrassment by not demanding nuclear shutdown in exchange for a game of hoops.
So instead of pointing out where Nasr is actually wrong, it's all ad hominem shoot-the-messenger oh-he's-biased. Just, sometimes reality has its own conclusions. Until you can show me something that indicates Obama doesn't have a tight circle of control around him and favors publicly more popular military strikes than face-to-face diplomacy, and loses interest in things once he's got the photo-op, I just figure Nasr's description was little I didn't already know, and more a bit of behind the scenes color for Holbrooke (who I didn't even realize had died, as marginalized as he was).
by Anonymous PP (not verified) on Wed, 03/06/2013 - 2:39pm
by A Guy Called LULU on Wed, 03/06/2013 - 4:25pm
I guess it could be summed up as "had no chance without diplomacy; had a tiny chance with". It's more just another data point of our "my way or the highway" approach of late. As for Nasr, I think he's just writing his personal experience - no need to be unbiased, but I still agree that Obama's approach here was doomed to failure for reasons cited here and more. But I don't think many care that it failed - we went, we got the t-shirt, we'll be out maybe in a decade except a drone/training presence.
by Anonymous PP (not verified) on Wed, 03/06/2013 - 4:50pm
And specifically, Holbrooke was against the surge, but once it was in place, favored using it to its best use. And no specific ipso facto "I was against the surge so the surge was bad" conclusion was made.
But yes, you might guess that that bringing in outsiders to undercut State department personnel will be less appreciated.
Watching Petraeus take over the CIA after failure in Iraq (termed "success" by McCain), and now watching Brennan getting a light touch to head CIA after his controversies under Bush and his lying about the drone program - well, I'm having a tough time waiting for fair-and-balanced. The Peter Principle and shuffling decks on the Titanic seem to be our ingrained policies of choice.
My God, I'm actually rooting for Rand Paul as he filibusters Brennan. Life is full of ironies.
I guess providing counsel to Colombian death squads has led Mr. Holder to a whole different understanding of the Constitution. How that made him Attorney General, I'm clueless.
by Anonymous PP (not verified) on Wed, 03/06/2013 - 2:53pm
I only have disagreement with your premise of outrage along the lines of "this guy has an agenda." I find it kind of absurd. Doh, yes of course, he has an agenda. And yes, it's an excerpt from his new book, and clearly marked as such. And yes, the book has an agenda. He was an academic in foreign policy before he joined the State Department, and previously published what you call "propaganda" and I call books [Shia Revival (2006) and Forces of Fortune (2009).] Yes, as an academic in foreign policy, he has chosen to make his living expressing his opinion on how foreign policy should be operated.
I don't think there's any hidden motives here. People interested in foreign policy, on a site that's named Foreignpolicy.com, are going to be interested in a new book by someone in foreign policy who worked in foreign policy in the administration that is criticizing the administration's foreign policy. No two ways about that. They are going to want to know what that person thinks whether he was fired or quit. Some of them are going to buy the book, just like they buy other books on foreign policy which the writers make royalties on and increase their foreign policy creds with.
Do you realize that what your beef comes down to is basically that people shouldn't make a living from writing? That you can only trust that their opinion is genuine if they aren't profiting monetarily or career-wise from their writing? Should anyone who ever worked for an administration quit working in the same field after if they plan to criticize what they saw within the administration?
To move on to content, a very striking thing initially: I found myself being embarrassed for Nasr at the level of adoration he expresses for Holbrooke. Is the whole book like that? I wonder if he had constant fights with an editor about toning down the St. Holbrooke thing.
A disturbing thing: if his intimations that political people in the White House controlled what options the president gets on foreign policy are true, and those unnamed political people are people like Valerie Jarrett or David Axelrod or Rahm Emmanuel, I am quite upset. But if I think back to the agonizingly long time Obama took to make up his mind on Afghanistan policy, I suspect things weren't that simplistic. One would have to read his book to get a better bead on what he was actually complaining about--was the Holbrooke/Nasr argument an approach that Obama himself dismissed and removed from consideration early on and Nasr is just blaming minions that already knew that the boss wasn't interested in hearing the argument again?
Another thing: the pump money into Pakistan solution (one which I naively thought would work circa 2002 when I knew less about Pakistan) is rightly being focused on and ridiculed in the comments to the article.
But the most striking thing: what does Hillary Clinton think about what he is saying in the book? Did she know the book was coming out and what it was going to say? Is she going to comment? This enquiring mind really really wants to know.
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/06/2013 - 5:34pm
I only have disagreement with your premise of outrage along the lines of "this guy has an agenda." I find it kind of absurd. Doh, yes of course, he has an agenda. And yes, it's an excerpt from his new book, and clearly marked as such. And yes, the book has an agenda.
Cool, your only disagreement with me is that you think my premise is absurd. We have a starting point.
Outrage seems a bit of an overwrought and otherwise inappropriate word for what I expressed but I get a bit carried away too sometimes. Of course I pointed out that Nasr had an agenda and was pushing a book. I was writing a comment critical of him and so it was necessary to put my criticism into some context. Those two points are part of the explanation, as I see it, for the things I was about to object to.
He was an academic in foreign policy before he joined the State Department, and previously published what you call "propaganda" and I call books
I'll define my term or let Wiki do it for me: Propaganda is a form of communication that is aimed towards influencing the attitude of a community toward some cause or position by presenting only one side of an argument. I realize that the word "propaganda" has a negative connotation but it also has a definition. Can you give me a more appropriate word for Nasr's message which pushes his agenda via a book. I think we can agree that books sometimes contain propaganda.
People interested in foreign policy, on a site that's named Foreignpolicy.com, are going to be interested in a new book by someone in foreign policy who worked in foreign policy in the administration that is criticizing the administration's foreign policy.
I was interested enough myself to give the article a read and then give it some thought and then try to express my evaluation of what he said. Seems a fair way to treat the piece.
Do you realize that what your beef comes down to is basically that people shouldn't make a living from writing? That you can only trust that their opinion is genuine if they aren't profiting monetarily or career-wise from their writing?
That paragraph is completely wrong. I would like you to consider a completely different analysis of my "beef". Suggesting that there is a profit motive is just referring to reality. Suggesting that Nasr is hyping his book is simply suggesting that he does what every author on a book tour does. Another thing many do is have a controversial bit for early release. That leaves them open to controversy.
Should anyone who ever worked for an administration quit working in the same field after if they plan to criticize what they saw within the administration?
If they want the option of returning to work for a future administration I think they choose their words carefully. Nasr balanced his criticism for Obama with high praise for Hillary who just might have some openings for bright Afghanistn experts in a few years.
One would have to read his book to get a better bead on what he was actually complaining about--was the Holbrooke/Nasr argument an approach that Obama himself dismissed and removed from consideration early on and Nasr is just blaming minions that already knew that the boss wasn't interested in hearing the argument again?
As far as the minions go, I read Nasr as saying that they were in the way just to prevent Holbrooke having any success, partly based on him and partly based on his association with Hillary. Nasr says success or failure, it didn't matter to them as long as the politics worked for Obama.
But the most striking thing: what does Hillary Clinton think about what he is saying in the book?
Hillary's opinion will be interesting for sure. Not to start anything new, but I will assert right now that whatever she says on this subject in the near future, and probably forever, will not be the whole truth as she sees it. Whatever she says will be influenced by past and future politics.
by A Guy Called LULU on Wed, 03/06/2013 - 8:07pm
Funny, you're calculating while Nasr is just open. He likes Holbrooke, he likes Hillary, he reports it as it played out. Did Obama's team play it for politics? Of course, isn't it obvious? Did they hold spiteful grudges? Well duh, remember June 2008 when it was beyond the pale that Hillary might demand anything in return for support (unlike say John Edwards or Bill Richardson)? Your guess that Nasr praises Hillary because he wants a position is a little bit dumb, no? Don't enough people like her? (I liked her, but I'm enough sick of her either carrying Obama's water or just taking the tough cop/soft cop routine too far without the soft cop ever appearing)
Wasn't it Obama who uttered "likeable enough" and "sweetie"? Have you ever noticed he spends a lot more time with Republicans than Democrats?
AA is suggesting that by having a point of view Nasr obviates his right to speak in your eyes. Does everyone run this gauntlet?
As far as Hillary goes, I think the chances that she'll be healthy enough to run in 4 years much less serve the following 8 are quite slim, and the chance that voters will elect on that chance are slimmer. A female elected and inaugurated at 69? Can we talk?
Aside from Hillary playing more world scourge & cop, perhaps one paper gets it right that she provides the US a bit of cover as fun and serious, worth dealing with. Other than that, I don't get it.
by Anonymous PP (not verified) on Wed, 03/06/2013 - 8:38pm
Your guess that Nasr praises Hillary because he wants a position is a little bit dumb, no?
I don't know, maybe, but look at the question I was answering. It might be dumb to expect the particulars of my suggestion to be in play, but in the greater picture I stand by what I said as an example which answers the question.
Just as I chose to criticize what Nasr said, you have chosen to dissect that criticism. That's obviously fair and I most always appreciate the information and views along with the attitude you bring to your comments, but what is the point of once again throwing Obama up at me? I am not defending Obama against any charge that Nasr made. I have said from the beginning and then over and over that I thought his charges were probably true. I have agreed with what you say about Obama. I have said most if not all those things myself at other times. For me, this topic has never been about Obama. Or Clinton. I have been talking about Nasr and the nature and the tone of his article.
Did Obama's team play it for politics? Of course, isn't it obvious? Did they hold spiteful grudges? Well duh,...
Yeah, duh. It's a bit frustrating continually agreeing with you so much considering that I am doing so in the act of defending my position. But now, using your terms, I will suggest once again that if we are attempting to critically read what Nasr says about Obama's team holding spiteful grudges, especially if we believe that these things actually do have an affect on political actions, we might see evidence that he holds some spiteful grudges himself.
AA is suggesting that by having a point of view Nasr obviates his right to speak in your eyes. Does everyone run this gauntlet?
Rather than what you see AA as suggesting, I would rather deal with what I actually did suggest. About the harshest suggestion I made about Nasr is that he engaged in a pot-calling-the -kettle-black form of criticizing Obama and his inner circle and pointing out the obvious which is that Nasr does have a point of view which is at least partially formed by having been on the losing team. That maybe gets us back to spiteful grudges if we want to hang that derisive a term on it and then consider why Nasr says his team lost. But seriously, what have I said that suggests that I do not think Nasr has the right to speak?
Over and out for now.
by A Guy Called LULU on Thu, 03/07/2013 - 12:57am
Ok, refs to Obama were about Nasr's point of view, not about you & your opinion.
I'm still not understanding what you're criticizing about Nasr's pot-calling-kettle-black when we agree about most of what he said & we said and....
So yeah, time to leave it. Next topic...
by Anonymous PP (not verified) on Thu, 03/07/2013 - 1:38am
The book has now been reviewed by Robert E. Hunter.
Read the full review here and form your own opinion on Hunter's opinion of Dr. Nasr's opinion regarding Holbrooke's opinions. Then wait with bated breath for the next differing opinion piece on the same book which will no doubt appear soon.
http://www.lobelog.com/afpak-insider-dissects-obamas-policy-missteps/
by A Guy Called LULU on Sun, 04/07/2013 - 2:03pm
Let's start with the dumbest one:
What a pretentious jackass. First, the "King's shilling" is ours, dammit - Obama ain't king. No, we shouldn't have to wait 4 more years for an insider's accounting, when it will do absolutely no good. No room for timely criticism anymore, especially about an administration that's classified everything even from Congress?
Well, I haven't read the book, but no, it's not a reach - we've abandoned diplomacy and decided on threats, ass beatings and shaming as our foreign toolkit. Is there anyone who's ever responded positively to these methods from kindergarten on? Look at Yemen, where our ambassador goes on air and makes proclamations as if he's head of state. Wow, winning hearts and minds. Bagram as black hole prison site for torture just outside of Kabul - drone attacks on wedding feasts - the surge that accomplished little (certainly not training Afghani policemen)...
Vs. a superstar president, superstar Petraeus (oops, guess won't run for president now), superstar McChrystal (guess he was feeling his oats when he gave that Rolling Stone interview...), superstar Secretary of State (cool shades, tweeting on that plane - her presidential stakes still alive despite a mess war), and superstar backseat driver self-inflated John McCain. Of all the bitchy little asides, that Holbrooke was too much a superstar among the restrained likes of Rahm Emanuel, well, it breaks my starry heart. Hear's superstar David Axelrod professing all the optimistic goals for surging while promising withdraw 6 months later - when Wolf Blitzer comes across insightful, you're doing pretty poorly, and please tell me what obvious questions Blitzer asked that aren't rather part of Nasr's basic gripe that this was all dones as a basic exercise of winning hearts and minds through troop movements, not diplomacy and building institutions and a real economy?
http://videos.mediaite.com/video/David-Axelrod-Has-An-Attack-Of
by PeraclesPlease on Sun, 04/07/2013 - 4:28pm
I don't see that Hunter adds much of anything about the book that the excerpt hadn't already revealed. He probably is a pretentious ass, at least I wouldn't bet against it, but the one partial sentence you quoted wouldn't look quite the same if you had also included the first half of the statement.
"... that someone who voluntarily “takes the King’s shilling” implicitly assumes a burden of not telling tales out of school, at least not until all the senior players have left the stage", was the second half. The entire sentence reads:
"So far, so good. But there are some other facets of this book, which, while not reducing the author’s valuable insights listed above, at least present a somewhat different perspective. One might be a quibble on the part of an “old school” approach to government service: that someone who voluntarily “takes the King’s shilling” implicitly assumes a burden of not telling tales out of school, at least not until all the senior players have left the stage""
I see his reference to "the old school" way as approximately synonymous with the long abandoned idea that politics stop at the water's edge, or in this case, until the scene has played out the way the boss chose. And, Humter did call it a minor quibble. That is not to say that I think Nasr should have kept quiet for a few years as Hunter seems to suggest. I agree completely that we should get information and analysis when the subject is still in play.
the apparent assumption running throughout the book that...a greater reliance on diplomacy and giving free rein to diplomatic approaches by... Ambassador Holbrooke ... then very different, positive things would have resulted. This would be a reach in regard to any region of the world.
I think you know that I am for diplomacy before militarism. I am not suggesting Nasr was wrong to stress the need for more and better diplomacy and never argued that his analysis of Obama's policies was wrong. But, it is one thing to say, absolutely correctly IMO, that diplomacy should be emphasized to a much greater degree. It is quite a different thing for Nasr to claim that Holbrooke's ideas, if instituted, would have worked and everything would be much better now. That is an unsupportable claim and that is the point Hunter was making in the above quote. Maybe Holbrooke's plan was great but maybe it wasn't, maybe it would have failed while there was some other diplomatic course of action that would have worked. Maybe we cannot make Afghanistan and Pakistan bend to our wishes through diplomacy or through strength of arms. We know what a cluster fuck the policies actually put into place produced and that is about all we can know for sure, any belief about the ones never tried is pure speculation.
That's, uh, about, uh, all, uh I got, uh, until I actually read the book, [Axelrod is really a jerk in that video] which I don't expect to do, or until more is written about it in short form, so I still don't know anything about Nasr's prescriptions other than he said there was a great plan, but maybe Hunter is right in his generous conclusion when he says,
"Whether Dr. Nasr is right on both his analysis and his prescriptions will now be hotly debated. In any case, Dispensable Nation has emerged as valuable evidence supporting one important point of view."
by A Guy Called LULU on Sun, 04/07/2013 - 11:22pm
Since I haven't read it, I can't state definitively - but since Nasr points out that one possible Holbrooke breakthrough was an unknown idea he woke up with that he didn't even share with his wife, he'd be foolish to claim that all his ideas would have worked.
What I seem to feel is everyone's upset that Nasr doesn't say every 3rd sentence, "but I may be wrong". Petraeus never had to question himself, but it's up to Nasr to be balanced and reflect all possibilities in his writing.
Just the clip from this diary reminds me of something I heard from the Bush years - that they were running everything through the political wing of the White House, marginalizing the policy side. As Obama has continued so much from the Bush years, it seems extremely likely that this is another inheritance - young political punks overriding field efforts to get the right spin in domestic polls, or just thinking they know better.
It was well known that many in Obama's team hate Hillary and thus anyone under her. It was thought by many that SoS was to marginalize her and keep her from running in 2012 - similar to Petraeus' appointment - and there were clues when Hillary's choice for underlings were overridden. Obama now has a history of putting people in place and letting weeds grow around them - the Gitmo-closing committee quietly disbanded earlier this year, both Elizabeth Warren and Dawn Johnsen were victims of his unwillingness to push what were thrilling choices for liberals, even Susan Rice was hung out to dry unjustly on Benghazi, Patti Solis Doyle was made "chief of staff for VP" in Obama campaign after she screwed up the financing for Hillary - only to disappear once the point/insult had been made.
So I'm entirely comfortable with the idea that Holbrooke was left in place to show that Obama wouldn't repeat the Clinton years, that he'd do it better with a different approach even as Holbrooke looked on, or some other petty vengeful message supported by some in his inner circle.
But back to Holbrooke's ideas - I think even you said the one Afghan or Pakistani leader summarized it best, that giving away the date of leaving and asking everyone to work together until then was doomed to failure - that you had to get buy-in at your peak, not before you showed your cards. I wasn't for the surge, but I can still imagine an "I'm leaving, but I'd still like to tell you what to do" message wouldn't succeed.
by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 04/08/2013 - 3:36am
Some background on our drone & CIA efforts in Pakistan during this time & before (yes, it preceded Obama) - way too much spookdom & ourwayorhighwayism.
by PeraclesPlease on Tue, 04/09/2013 - 3:25pm
The mess war hasn't hurt her prospects because neither mess war started on her watch, and the Afghan war was defensive.
by Aaron Carine on Tue, 04/09/2013 - 8:01pm
Yeah, but Afghanistan ate McChrystal's career. Benghazi crippled Susan Rice and what she said was true and full of enough nuance. In any case, my point was simply that politics is full of superstars and egos, and bashing Holbrooke for it is kinda ho-hum, like a "politician in sex scandal" or "priest found with young boy" headline.
by PeraclesPlease on Tue, 04/09/2013 - 9:18pm