MSNBC: Manafort reaches deal?

MSNBC: Manafort reaches deal?

By Richard Day on Thu, 09/13/2018 - 6:28pm |

Paul Manafort just gives up the ghost; tomorrow?

I am actually viewing MSNBC.

But it looks like something is going on.

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/us-politics/ny-news-trump-manafort-plea-deal-mueller-20180913-story.html

URL:

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/us-politics/ny-news-trump-manafort-plea-deal-mueller-20180913-story.html

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Scuttlebutt from my feed:

As I suspected, it looks like Manafort will plead guilty in his DC case. Now we will have to wait and see if the plea is with or without cooperation. #Manafort #MuellerInvestigation https://t.co/KK1GB5MGN6
— Glenn Kirschner (@glennkirschner2) September 13, 2018

Joint defense agreements are not unusual. Joint defense agreements where one defendant (Trump) holds the keys to the jail (pardon) over the other defendant (Manafort) who can almost certainly provide incrimnatimg information about the other defendant (Trump) is ethically suspect. https://t.co/DypW2Su7j5
— Glenn Kirschner (@glennkirschner2) September 13, 2018

Kirschner is Fmr 30-year federal prosecutor w/ the DC US Attorney's Office , DC Chief of Homicide & Army JAG, also often does talking head duty on cable tv news Bertrand is a name everyone should know if they follow Mueller stuff

Look at that https://t.co/oE6vvOeeMc
— Preet Bharara (@PreetBharara) September 13, 2018

You should know who he is. Probably doesn't want to elaborate for a reason.

by artappraiser on Thu, 09/13/2018 - 7:18pm

Yeah AA, they keep saying ABC reports.

Everybody is afraid.

hahahah

WHY NOT BE AFRAID.

There is no frickin way that the prosecutors (or persecutors as the repubs put it) are going to give this prick a free ride or a ride without cooperation in my humble opinion.

I do feel that this is fun to watch as criminals deal with the government.

by Richard Day on Thu, 09/13/2018 - 7:33pm

I don't usually look at directly at Trump's tweets, I just check out the ones that get retweeted by media I trust. But I think tomorrow morning I might like to check them for any further signs of meltdown.

by artappraiser on Thu, 09/13/2018 - 7:37pm

Here is the ABC "Breaking" tweet of their story. There are lots of funny replies on it, as one might expect:

BREAKING: Former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort has tentatively agreed to a plea deal with special counsel Robert Mueller that is expected to head off his upcoming trial, sources familiar with the negotiations tell @ABC News. https://t.co/FdbBpTS1NT pic.twitter.com/o1EQYvidbz
— ABC News (@ABC) September 13, 2018

by artappraiser on Thu, 09/13/2018 - 8:01pm

Good cite!

This is breaking news for a change, as they say.

by Richard Day on Thu, 09/13/2018 - 8:08pm

From Josh over at TPM Prime

As you can see ABC News is reporting a ‘tentative’ plea deal between Paul Manafort and the Office of Special Counsel. Assuming this is accurate and moves from tentative to real by tomorrow, I think there’s good reason to expect that is not what it seems. This isn’t Manafort flipping on Trump. It’s Manafort locking in his pardon.

by ocean-kat on Thu, 09/13/2018 - 8:56pm

I cannot read Josh behind the prime wall but it is hard to imagine prosecutors going this far down the road and agreeing to avoid trial in exchange for a simple admission of guilt with no other benefit.

by moat on Thu, 09/13/2018 - 9:13pm

same; I can see a number of people voicing skepticism as well in reply to Josh's post of the story on his twitter feed and he is choosing not to reply back so far, so we'll have to wait and see! Just like we used to have to wait for the morning for the newspaper, remember?

by artappraiser on Thu, 09/13/2018 - 10:14pm

I was ambivalent about posting this since it's behind prime but I thought there might be more people here signed up given the connection so many of us have to the readers blog section years ago. But there's also some bad blood about that too so...

Josh has written a few articles on this topic recently, especially since Giuliani reveal that President Trump’s personal legal team has a joint defense agreement with Paul Manafort’s attorneys, allowing them to share confidential information, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani told Politico. I can't summarize his arguments to support his contention here nor do I necessarily agree with all his arguments. But he does make a reasonable argument to support his contention. I'm really not much into predicting. I'm happy to just watch the story unfold. I thought it was an interesting take. We'll see.

Here's a bit more of the article:

This is far more likely to be a favor to Donald Trump which sets Manafort up for a pardon than any deal that leads Manafort to cooperate with the Mueller’s prosecutors against Donald Trump. A lot of this reasoning I set forth in this Editor’s Brief from earlier today.

There is a chance that we’re in for a surprise, that Manafort cooperates. If that was his plan he would have every reason to keep the President and his lawyers in the dark as long as possible. So a surprise would have a real logic to it. But that’s unlikely. All the reporting we’ve seen suggests Manafort has resisted the Mueller team’s pressure to cooperate, especially against the President. The continued existence of the joint defense agreement backs up that assumption.

Manafort is 69 years old and the first conviction will probably get him in the neighborhood of 8 to 10 years in federal prison. That alone could easily be a life sentence. Whether he goes to trial in the upcoming DC trial or pleads guilty to a subset of charges, he will almost certainly add significantly more time to his incarceration. Given those facts and the prospect of a pardon, why have the second trial at all? Manafort will pay a large sum of money on lawyers. He’ll save that money by pleading out. If he loses at trial he would also likely have to forfeit more money or property. Getting some limited benefit to pleading guilty under the sentencing guidelines makes a lot of sense, even without a pardon.

But pleading guilty Manafort does Trump a huge favor.

by ocean-kat on Thu, 09/13/2018 - 11:16pm

thanks much. Looked at Abramson, he's got a load of tweets on it in long string as usual, but then thankfully he finally summed it up with 3 possibilities, including 1 that agrees with Josh:

CONCLUSION/ 3 possibilities:

1) Manafort is cooperating, giving up Trump/someone else.
2) Trump illegally promised Manafort a pardon.
3) Mueller offered Manafort a long consecutive sentence—which Manafort took because he thinks if the facts come out at trial he'll get far worse.
— Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) September 13, 2018

by artappraiser on Thu, 09/13/2018 - 11:52pm

Marcy Wheeler retweeted this

If the suspense about a possible Manafort plea drives you nuts, that would be a good sign that trial attorney is not a good career choice for you.
— Elizabeth de la Vega (@Delavegalaw) September 14, 2018

and tweeted this:

Oh.

Maybe Manafort IS flipping in the face of losing $30M under FARA. https://t.co/5wFMxGbI26
— emptywheel (@emptywheel) September 14, 2018

Ken Vogel of NYT was tweeting about Manafort docs he just got via FOIA (and those he didn't get); probably publish on them later:

In response to my #FOIA for FARA records related to MANAFORT, GATES, @PodestaGroup, Mercury, @SkaddenArps , etc, @TheJusticeDept found 1,810 emails & 1 DVD of documents.
BUT it only released a few dozen pages, withholding the rest under an exemption for law enforcement records. pic.twitter.com/DxX8ails7H
— Kenneth P. Vogel (@kenvogel) September 14, 2018

by artappraiser on Fri, 09/14/2018 - 12:00am

an hour after Trump tweeted the thing about Kerry that emptywheel quoted above, he did one more, 2 hrs. ago, @ 10:37 pm ET. He retweeted a recommendation by GOP spokeswoman Kayleigh McEnany of the new book by Gina Loudon, adding only that Gina is Great! This is the book :

by artappraiser on Fri, 09/14/2018 - 12:14am

Book vanished. Similar to her psychology degree.

ETA: the book reappeared. The degree, not so much.

by PeraclesPlease on Fri, 09/14/2018 - 3:18am

Yeah well it was pretty clear someone took the phone away from him this morning before he could tweet anything and posted a whole bunch of retweets on the hurricane info., including one in Spanish! I don't believe for one minute he has interest in any of that whether he's upset about Manafort or not. Someone told him he couldn't tweet and he went along with it. This is the only one that looks like his own idea:

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump 7 hours ago

Incredible job being done by FEMA, First Responders, Law Enforcement and all. Thank you!

He doesn't do detailed info. like all those others, he doesn't have the attention span.

by artappraiser on Fri, 09/14/2018 - 3:16pm

$46 million settlement - 3 homes, etc.

But will he talk? The rest is meaningless to me.

by PeraclesPlease on Fri, 09/14/2018 - 10:39am

Giuliano statement: “Once again an investigation has concluded with a plea having nothing to do with President Trump or the Trump campaign. The reason: the President did nothing wrong.”
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) September 14, 2018

by artappraiser on Fri, 09/14/2018 - 4:18pm

Josh Marshall:

Manafort’s Plea Deal Requires Him To Cooperate ‘Fully’ With Government https://t.co/7joFrYsmbd via @TPM
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) September 14, 2018

The two words "remain safe" in this sentence from PM's lawyer are my takeaway for the day “He wanted to make sure that his family was able to remain safe and live a good life.” https://t.co/BbR8nkS6sH via @TPM
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) September 14, 2018

2/ That really tells me all I need to know. Because he and his investigators know vastly more about this than we do.
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) September 14, 2018

My take is simply this: If Mueller believes Manafort has things he knows about Trump/Russia, Manafort is going to be talking about them. https://t.co/RQY126Ran0
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) September 14, 2018

Paulie Runs One Last Disinformation Op – Against Trump https://t.co/K9l9Q6MHRr via @TPM
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) September 14, 2018

I think if there's anything it's more inherent, characterological caution. But more than that, I was just wrong. https://t.co/0wy9tTuoup
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) September 14, 2018

READ: Manafort’s Plea Agreement https://t.co/p8kTyVn8Fx via @TPM
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) September 14, 2018

by artappraiser on Fri, 09/14/2018 - 4:30pm

Preet Bharara:

first retweeted this:

Could be cooperation against a number of people in the case. But this will make it harder for Trump team to make case that this is all winding down, because they don’t know for certain who the cooperation is against. https://t.co/Y15YFUoJhI
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) September 14, 2018

then retweeted this:

Flashback. August 19, 2016. Newt Gingrich: "Nobody should underestimate how much Paul Manafort did to really help get this campaign to where it is right now." pic.twitter.com/OlTOpC1B1l
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) September 14, 2018

then these 4 just recently:

Paul Manafort cooperation is agreement is hugely significant, yes.
— Preet Bharara (@PreetBharara) September 14, 2018

Mueller likely already has all of Manafort’s information. You get the information before you offer the agreement.
— Preet Bharara (@PreetBharara) September 14, 2018

Given how late in the game Mueller was prepared to bargain, more people will almost certainly be charged based on Manafort info.
— Preet Bharara (@PreetBharara) September 14, 2018

Mueller does not seem like he will be done anytime soon. It is a slow and steady juggernaut.
— Preet Bharara (@PreetBharara) September 14, 2018

by artappraiser on Fri, 09/14/2018 - 4:39pm

Sen. Mark Warner:

Mark Warner: "In the United States of America no one is above the law. Any attempt by the President to pardon Mr. Manafort or otherwise interfere in this investigation would be a gross abuse of power and require immediate action by Congress."
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) September 14, 2018

by artappraiser on Fri, 09/14/2018 - 4:41pm

Glenn Kirschner 4 hrs. ago:

I agree with Laffy. Manafort never would have been able to count on Trump to issue a pardon, given Trump’s demonstrated lack of loyalty and consistency. Cooperation with Mueller was the only play for Manafort. This spells enormous trouble for the president and his cronies. https://t.co/K1wrYdwaGr
— Glenn Kirschner (@glennkirschner2) September 14, 2018

by artappraiser on Fri, 09/14/2018 - 4:45pm

Asked if Manafort will cooperate against Trump, one of Manafort's lawyers said he will provide “complete cooperation.” https://t.co/PIjpsg9HRR
— Dan Friedman (@dfriedman33) September 14, 2018

by artappraiser on Fri, 09/14/2018 - 5:10pm

from the above, a confirmation that "complete cooperation" covers things Trump:

Fun scene from Mannafort’s plea hearing today. Washington is small. https://t.co/C7W6zmRX1a @dfriedman33 pic.twitter.com/Ww1W0MO9qT
— Margot Sanger-Katz (@sangerkatz) September 14, 2018

by artappraiser on Fri, 09/14/2018 - 5:55pm

John Dean:

Manafort has flipped! BOOM (the sound of broomsticks breaking the sound barrier crashing to earth - NO witches). The entire Trump family now in jeopardy. No pardon for Paul from Trump. No nice things to say about Mansfort by Rudy. Nightmares at the White House will be unending.
— John Dean (@JohnWDean) September 14, 2018

by artappraiser on Fri, 09/14/2018 - 5:20pm

Laurence Tribe:

Anyone recall who hand-picked Pence as Trump’s VP? Paul Manafort. And recall who led the squirrely transition? Mike Pence. Watch what unfolds as Manafort tells Mueller all he knows!
— Laurence Tribe (@tribelaw) September 14, 2018

by artappraiser on Fri, 09/14/2018 - 5:23pm

Paul Manafort acknowledged new details about his work on behalf of a former Ukrainian president and his efforts to keep that work secret https://t.co/0xpaQ79lWG
— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) September 14, 2018

by artappraiser on Fri, 09/14/2018 - 5:24pm

In the long slog of the Special Counsel investigation, this stands out:

Five Trump aides have now pleaded guilty to charges related to the probe.

- Paul Manafort
- Michael Cohen
- Michael Flynn
- Rick Gates
- George Papadopoulos
— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) September 14, 2018

by artappraiser on Fri, 09/14/2018 - 5:26pm

Last (for now), but not least:

Manafort Reaches Plea Deal With Special Counsel https://t.co/s19xTcHfIa #WhatDoYouThink? pic.twitter.com/fObbxPVTv2
— The Onion (@TheOnion) September 14, 2018

by artappraiser on Fri, 09/14/2018 - 5:28pm

Les jeux sont faits. Manafort was key, and Mueller turned him.

by Michael Wolraich on Fri, 09/14/2018 - 8:54pm

This doesn't say whether we-the-people get the ostrich jacket, but looks like there's some other good stuff:

Manafort Gives Up Prized Hamptons Estate, Keeps Florida Home

By Joe Schneider @ Bloomberg.com, September 14, 2018, 5:17 PM EDT

Paul Manafort’s prized possession -- a 5,574-square-foot home in the Hamptons, which includes a putting green, pool house, pergola and "waterfall pond” and where hundreds of red and white flowers were planted in the shape of an M -- will be owned by the U.S. government.

It’s one of five properties, bank accounts and a life insurance policy Donald Trump’s former campaign chairman agreed to turn over to the government as part of his plea deal Friday in Washington, where he admitted to conspiracy against the U.S. and witness tampering.

Manafort gets to keep his $1.25 million home at the BallenIsles Country Club in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. The Florida location might help if Manafort is forced into bankruptcy. The state’s homestead exemption allows a primary residence of unlimited value to be protected from creditors, as long as the debtor lived in Florida for 40 months or longer. Also exempt are 401(k)s, IRAs and Roth IRAs up to $1.2 million.

Here’s a list of the possessions Manafort is giving up to end his prosecution: [.....]

by artappraiser on Fri, 09/14/2018 - 9:25pm

NEW: People who worked with MANAFORT in Ukraine think his real value to MUELLER may be flipping on the oligarchs, the pols they funded & the Western firms/operatives who assisted them, including ones he recruited, like TONY PODESTA, MERCURY & @SKADDENARPS. https://t.co/eubx2gJzfq
— Kenneth P. Vogel (@kenvogel) September 15, 2018

by artappraiser on Fri, 09/14/2018 - 10:59pm

Or lead-in to Saudi Arabia UAE, Israel...

What happened in Cyprus, Seychelles, Budapest...

Manafort's their pivot point.

This is where it goes multinational.

by PeraclesPlease on Fri, 09/14/2018 - 11:08pm

Seth Abramson retweeted this New Yorker analysis of the agreement recommended by Laurence Tribe:

https://t.co/Fp1h4aRZ7N
— Laurence Tribe (@tribelaw) September 15, 2018

by artappraiser on Sat, 09/15/2018 - 10:14pm

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