US shale oil supply shock shifts global power balance

By artappraiser on Tue, 05/14/2013 - 2:13pm |

BBC News, May 14, 2013

A steeper-than-expected rise in US shale oil reserves is about to change the global balance of power between new and existing producers, a report says.

Over the next five years, the US will account for a third of new oil supplies, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The US will change from the world's leading importer of oil to a net exporter.

Demand for oil from Middle-East oil producers is set to slow as a result.

"North America has set off a supply shock that is sending ripples throughout the world," said IEA executive director Maria van der Hoeven.

The surge in US production will reshape the whole industry, according to the IEA, which made the prediction in its closely-watched bi-annual report examining trends in oil supply and demand over the next five years. The IEA said it expected the US to overtake Russia as the world's biggest gas producer by 2015 and to become "all but self-sufficient" in its energy needs by about 2035. [....]

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22524597

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According to Greer, this graph shows US oil production up to 2012. The small increase above 2010 represents the recent "boom" in unconventional liquids like fractured gas, dilbit from tar sands, tight oil and shale oil. Without even mentioning the environmental costs, we have a long way to go to match the output of conventional oil the US was producing in 1970, much less to dominate the world.

by Donal on Tue, 05/14/2013 - 3:49pm

To Drill or Not to Drill
The coming American oil boom is bad news for Saudi Arabia. How the kingdom responds could very well determine if it survives.
By Gal Luft, Op-Ed @ ForeignPolicy.com, May 27, 2013

[Gal Luft is senior adviser to the United States Energy Security Council and co-author of Petropoly: The Collapse of America's Energy Security Paradigm.]

Current trends in the global energy market don't look good for Saudi Arabia. First, the International Energy Agency projected in November 2012 that the United States will surpass the Gulf petrogiant as the world's top energy producer by 2020. Then, last week, it revealed that North America, buoyed by the rapid development of its unconventional oil industry, is set to dominate global oil production over the next five years. These unforeseen developments not only represent a blow to Saudi Arabia's prestige but also a potential threat to the country's long term economic well-being -- particularly in the post-Arab Spring era of elevated per-capita government spending.

But if the kingdom's outlook is decidedly bleak, its official response has been muddled [....]

Also see:

Is Venezuela becoming a failed state?

by artappraiser on Mon, 05/27/2013 - 10:21pm

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