MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
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Egypt To Permanently Open Gaza Border
By Bruce Levine on Thu, 04/28/2011 - 4:22pm |URL:
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/egypt-fm-gaza-border-crossing-to-be-permanently-opened-1.358690
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Comments
The (Middle East) Times They Are A Changin'.
by cmaukonen on Thu, 04/28/2011 - 5:27pm
I totally agree with you CM, and so now the question becomes what the change will be. To begin with, sometimes the more things change the more they stay the same. As to Egypt's decision, on the one hand I assume that, all things equal, this will make things easier for ordinary Gazaans. On the other hand, however, all things equal, Hamas and Israel remain in a state of war, and it is unlikely that the Israelis will cease efforts to prevent weapons from being smuggled across the border from Egypt.
I guess we can all hope for the best at this point, but the change, in this case, in Egypt as a whole, and throughout the Middle East, is a moving target right now and I think it's hard to guage it accurately. We need to buckle up and stay tuned.
Bruce
by Bruce Levine on Thu, 04/28/2011 - 6:03pm
I find it hard to visualize things staying more the same than they have been, Bruce. And I welcome anything that shows how untenable the status quo is/was.
As for weapon-smuggling, before Israel ordered a complete border shutdown there was a system in place under which European observers monitored inspections of Egypt-Gaza shipments. A variation could conceivably be negotiated. The one thing Egypt is signaling is that collective (and arbitrary) punishment of Gazans will end.
by acanuck on Thu, 04/28/2011 - 8:05pm
Hey AC (need to settle on a good short name for you still-preference? :)):
I don't think anyone knows what Egypt is signaling right now. It's a nation in flux, on the cusp of real democracy and on the cusp of confirming, once again, that the new boss is generally the same as the old boss. I'm bad at predictions and just hope for the best.
Bruce
by Bruce Levine on Thu, 04/28/2011 - 8:31pm
And, on the weapons, I don't think you can really say that Europe and Egypt were able to keep arms out the hands of Hamas. Generally, Israel, like any other nation really, is hard-pressed to depend on others to take care of their business. How successful, for example, do you think SC Resolution 1701 has been at keeping rockets out of the hands of Hizbollah up north?
by Bruce Levine on Thu, 04/28/2011 - 8:38pm
AC, Ack -- it's all good. Egypt's new foreign minister, Nabil al-Arabi, is definitely signaling a policy much more independent of the U.S. and Israel, including (most recently) new, formal, friendlier ties with Iran. The Supreme Military Council knew his positions well before they appointed him, so it's clear they're on board with those changes.
I understand that Israel doesn't trust anybody, but the simple fact is that Gaza has a border with Egypt, and Egypt no longer sees the blockade as being in its interest. Weapons did come into Gaza, but through tunnels, not through border crossings. SC Resolution 1701 was designed to get a ceasefire, so it included face-saving clauses for both sides. I never thought it would prevent Hezbollah rearming, did you?
Treaties and security arrangements do work, if there's a mutual interest and will to make them work. See the peace deals with Egypt and Jordan. And there's still a UN observer force monitoring the Sinai border since, I believe, 1973. Any eventual Palestine-Israel peace deal is almost certainly going to involve an outside military presence. At the end of the day, Israel can't unilaterally impose its conception of "peace."
by acanuck on Thu, 04/28/2011 - 9:20pm
I think I agree with all of that, or at least don't disagree with any of it ACK (I like that), except to the extent that I still think Egypt is totally in flux and that it's too early to tell which way(s) it will turn. It's a huge nation and can and will influence other nations in the region, and it doesn't have the same concerns about Iran that the GCC Sunni nations have. But the wheels are turning too fast for me to get a handle on where this all heads. The only nation in the region that I think I can speak about with a moderate degree of certainty is Israel. And while I think the turmoil throughout the Middle East appears to completely undercut conventional wisdom about the Arab Street and its obsession with Israel, I think peace between the Israelis and Palestinians is critical and needs to be consummated sooner than later, and in that regard I sure as heck wish that Israel had someone with more courage and vision than Bibi Netanyahu has displayed.
by Bruce Levine on Thu, 04/28/2011 - 9:52pm
Egyptians aren't alone in viewing their country as the political-cultural heart of the Arab world. The Mubarak years were seen as abandoning that historic leadership. The repression was bad, but Egyptian pride was also wounded. With "the pharaoh" gone, the demand for a robust, nationalist, home-grown foreign policy now cuts across right-left, Islamist-secular lines.
The army is happy to embrace popular sentiment as a way of distancing itself from Mubarak. Standing up to U.S. and Israeli pressure is also a net plus for the interim government, which is claiming the Palestinian deal as its first major foreign-policy achievement. This is the start of Egypt's move to reassert leadership of the Arab world; it's not going to fade, no matter which party or faction is in power.
Already, we see the Saudis sucking up to Israel as they feel themselves being marginalized. But aside from its oil wealth and control of Mecca, Saudi Arabia really is a marginal player. Israel would do a lot better to accommodate itself to a resurgent (but not necessarily hostile) Egypt than to count on that dinosaur. That would involve making the hard choices Israel keeps saying it knows it will have to make.
As for needing someone with more courage and vision than Bibi: From your lips, dude!
by acanuck on Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:49pm
I shouldn't have left out: the Saudis have a pretty decent air force. But none of this stuff has a military solution.
by acanuck on Fri, 04/29/2011 - 12:05am
Well, now, right now this gives me a lift and a half. And Hama better put a lid on its worst impulses.
by we are stardust on Thu, 04/28/2011 - 6:10pm
You can bet on it, stardust, that keeping its own militants (and those of more extreme rivals) in check is a big precondition for the reconcialition deal Hamas just signed with Fatah. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if opening the Rafah crossing wasn't the quid-pro-quo Egypt offered to get Hamas to accept that deal. (Another thing Hamas insisted on was that Salam Fayyad not be prime minister in the interim government formed in the run-up to new elections.)
by acanuck on Thu, 04/28/2011 - 8:15pm
Is Fayyad really such a bad guy? I don't understand why he's a definite out, but that's what I'm reading too.
by Bruce Levine on Thu, 04/28/2011 - 8:33pm
Fayyad's done some useful institution-building (all on the West Bank, of course). Hamas just sees him as way too pliant vis-a-vis the Israelis and Americans, who basically demanded he become PM. And remember he succeeded Haniyeh after Abbas "fired" him, which Hamas has never considered legitimate. I tend to agree with them: the Palestinian constitution requires confirmation of cabinet ministers, and Abbas refused to submit Fayyad's name to the Hamas-dominated legislature, or even call it into session. The new interim unity government is supposed to be chosen by joint agreement, and Hamas let it be known upfront they wouldn't agree to Fayyad. Maybe they were testing how serious Abbas was about the deal.
by acanuck on Thu, 04/28/2011 - 9:37pm
Ack:
Fatah's chief negotiator denies that Fayyad is out:
This really is an unfinished story, and I think Fayyad's situation is a metaphor for the extent to which the ends remain pretty loose at this point. Abbas' success at getting so many nations behind the possibility of a unilateral statehood declaration, and certainly the potential that he's going to get additional support from EU nations, has been premised on a PA with Fayyad in the picture and Hamas being, at best, beside the point.
by Bruce Levine on Thu, 04/28/2011 - 10:35pm
But, of course, if the new cabinet is chosen by consensus -- and Hamas has indicated it won't endorse Fayyad -- Fayyad won't be PM. Both Hamas and Fatah are spinning this as a total win for their side. Maybe the whole deal will unravel, but that will really piss off the Egyptians. We'll have to wait and see.
by acanuck on Thu, 04/28/2011 - 11:57pm
A couple commenters at my.fdl cynically [ ;o) ] pointed out the likelihood that the US will threaten to withhold any funds (billions, hasn't it been?) to Egypt to leverage them to back off the border crossing opening. Ackerman and Illyanna Ross-what's her name are pretty livid...
And LOL on the 'going on my resume'!
by we are stardust on Fri, 04/29/2011 - 1:21pm
Ros-Lehtinen. I think it's just a billion a year, almost exclusively for military purchases. Egypt will resent the threat, and respond negatively to an actual cutoff. Since it's hard to see Egypt backing down anyway, it would be a very stupid U.S. tactic.
by acanuck on Fri, 04/29/2011 - 4:04pm
I haven't seen any legislator threaten to cut aid to Egypt should the border be reopened. I think the issues being raised in Congress relate to the meaning of the reconciliation deal with Hamas.
by Bruce Levine on Fri, 04/29/2011 - 4:55pm
You're right, Bruce, and I didn;t mean to entwine the issues. Just in too much of a hurry, as usual, to write carefully. Sorry.
by we are stardust on Fri, 04/29/2011 - 5:12pm
Good catch, Bruce. Ros-Lehtinen has only called for cancellation of about $550 million in projected aid to the Palestinians. Again, much of that is for security -- arms and training that has basically propped up Fatah in the West Bank. So a similar question arises: would such a cutoff not actually undermine U.S. influence?
by acanuck on Fri, 04/29/2011 - 5:51pm
You are always a step or three past me in analysis, canuck. Thanks; I haven't had time today to check around today for other thinking. In fact, not many blogsites and I/P bloggers seem to have had the info. I'll check around tonight, but I intuit that you're right. Got anything on the Quartet?
by we are stardust on Thu, 04/28/2011 - 8:41pm
Good point. I haven't read anything about how the quartet is reacting to the reconciliation deal. I imagine they're more open to it than the U.S. or Israel; things should become clearer in a day or two.
by acanuck on Thu, 04/28/2011 - 9:42pm
Did some poking around, and it seems pretty predictable: US more hardline than even Israel, EU waiting to see...arguing all sorts of preconditions of Hamas, not Israel, SC dunno, but they won't even condemn the killings in Syria.
By the by, canuck. I think you should write analysis at AJE; you're more knowledgable than some writing there. Seriously.
by we are stardust on Thu, 04/28/2011 - 10:10pm
Thanks for the endorsement, stardust. That's going on my resume.
by acanuck on Fri, 04/29/2011 - 12:00am