The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age

    Aca-quinn . Who'll be the weather man

    By Flavius on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 2:48pm |

    tonight who tells us which way the wind's blowing ? If need be after the poll close in BC..

    Comments

    Definitely after the polls close in B.C. (i.e., 10 p.m.). I'll post something, as will quinn if he's not too drunk by then (a remote possibility). As I wrote late last night:

    There's the little matter of a $25,000 fine for broadcasting, tweeting, or otherwise communicating vote results to people who could potentially still vote. Posting them at dagblog would be surely be illegal. I'll weigh in as soon as I can.

    http://www.globalmontreal.com/decisioncanada/Elections+Canada+stands+firm+social+media+election+night/4656122/story.html

    You might have some luck with U.S.-based TV news networks, who aren't bound by Canadian election law. On the other hand, they are carried on Canadian cable and they may self-censor to avoid hassles (including possible pre-emption of their signals).

    But I'll chime in after 10.


    by acanuck on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 3:09pm

    Some of us aren't afraid of the "authorities" and their puny rules. And thus, will be happy to give an illegal unfolding account. And if the cops come with their questions, I'll be ready with my answer: I work for Articleman. ;-) Seriously, I'd say 3 things will hurt the insurgent NDP. They don't have a broad enough GOTV machine. The last minute "massage parlor" scandal is getting a lot of local play in Toronto, and the Sunday only polls turns down. And lastly, I think the whole Osama thing has taken some focus off the "historic" nature of the election, and will thus, slightly reduce turnout for soft/bandwagoning voters. My hope is the NDP can still scratch their way to 30% and 100 seats, but I see 27% and say, 70 seats as the cautious floor. In terms of result, 100 NDP seats will make it almost impossible to keep them from forming a minority with Layton as PM I think. Anything much less and the Tories will simply appear too powerful. And if the Tories manage a majority out of this vote-splitting, I think acanuck and I will be asking how to emigrate to the States. Again.

    by quinn esq on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 3:27pm

    Jon Walker at fdl put up a bit of a diary about the election.     Cool


    by we are stardust on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 5:19pm

    Elections Canada seems to be operating as efficiently as usual, despite reports from a few tight ridings (mostly in Ontario) of voters getting automated phone calls that their polling station has been moved due to high turnout. The voter is then directed across town to a location where, of course, no polling station exists. Presumably, the cops are investigating.

    After a five-minute walk to my polling station, I didn't even have to line up. I flashed my driver's license, they checked my name off the permanent voters' list, and I was back outside in less than two minutes. I'd fight for democracy if I had to, but it's so much more appealing when it's effortless.


    by acanuck on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 6:26pm

    Aw, shucks; hoped ya'd read at Jon Walker's diary.  Left ya'll a message.  Crap Karma today.  ;oP


    by we are stardust on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 6:49pm

    Hey, I replied at fdl. That's good karma, no?


    by acanuck on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 7:19pm

    Talkin' about mah crap karma, deah!  Hay-ull; nevah thought to trudge back to jon's diary...see how ah am?


    by we are stardust on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 7:21pm

    Same here. I had to register as I've just moved here, but it took about 1 minute, no hassles, everyone smiles, and - all in all - one of those lovely "civic" sorts of days when it you feel like maybe your neighbours aren't secretly ax-murderers. Makes me wonder how in the hell the perfectly resentful, thoroughly unpleasant, nasty little man Stephen Harper manages to worm his way to the top these past years. My, but I'd love to see the back of him after tonight.

    So, breaking all the laws, you can pretty much put 2 votes in the Jack Layton column in Toronto-Danforth. ;-) 

    Happy Jack for Prime Minister!


    by quinn esq on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 6:50pm

    Tweettheresults.ca, which was threatening to break the law, has just shut down its site for the next three hours, apparently after a stern talking-to by some lawyerly types. They'll resume posting at 10 p.m., but then you might as well come here for more spirited analysis. Or, if you're near the border or on this side of it, turn on the damn TV.


    by acanuck on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 7:24pm

    Wandering through my usual sites today I came across this article and thought it might fit in this thread somehow.  If indigenous voter turnout is higher than normal, it usually means a brighter outcome for the more liberal candidates. 

     


    by wabby on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 7:47pm

    Good find; thanks. I wasn't aware there are 33 aboriginal candidates running this time around. Even if some are competing for the same seat, that's an impressive number for a 308-seat Parliament.


    by acanuck on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 8:25pm

    When do the Atlantic provinces close?


    by Flavius on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 8:23pm

    They're closed now. No web or TV coverage of results, though. Quebec and Ontario polls close in half an hour (9:30 p.m.). Polls in the West (including B.C.) close at 10.


    by acanuck on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 9:05pm

    #1 Twitter is a HORRIBLE place to try and find specific information. Gaaa how obnoxious.

    #2 This guy seems to actually be putting up results - those who want to sneek a peek should nuke all the rest of Twitter and just check his page out every so often; you'll save a whole forest of digital trees.

    #3 Turns out, finding early results was kind of pointless for me anyhow. Upon deeper reflection ... can't make heads or tails of 'em.

    But there are all sorts of results in there if anyone is interested.


    by kgb999 on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 8:39pm

    This guy's summary is worrying.

    The old saw "these are just early results and you can't draw any conclusion" is wrong. Unless you have knowledge to the contrary you should assume those early results are a sufficiently random sample to allow some tentative conclusion. Mine is that ,sadly , we already know that the conservatives will continue to be the largest party


    by Flavius on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 8:55pm

    Between Newfoundland and Nova Scotia , conservatives up 1. 


    by Flavius on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 8:58pm

    It's not great, but not that worrying so far. Canada is soooo regionalized in its voting. So some of what you're seeing is rural Atlantic Canada (where I'm from), where the NDP barely exists, and so when the Liberal vote collapses, the NDP isn't strong enough to replace them - thus, the Conservatives sneak through the "split vote." 

    Also, having to laugh at the guy who uses Hockey Team colours to replace the political parties. That's the best method. Leafs = Conservatives (Blue), Canadiens = Liberals (Red), and Flyers = NDP (Orange.) Now how in the hell can they legally block that??? ;-)

    Anyway, the next hour or so as the votes come in in Quebec and Ontario will tell the tale. Atlantic Canada together only has about 30 seats, but these two provinces have 175 or so.


    by quinn esq on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 9:17pm

    Taking a stab in the dark I had guessed that was what they were showing. Unfortunate. To be honest, I've rooted against that Harper guy every time there was a chance he might be defeated. Don't like Tony Blair either - in the same way. I consider them all a part of that Bush crew.

     


    by kgb999 on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 9:16pm

    Also interesting - Twitter seems to be blacking out any specific election information contained in many of the posts. I didn't realize they did communications-altering censorship at that level. So, is Twitter suppressing just the messages originating from Canada?


    by kgb999 on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 8:53pm

    Nothing new from this guy since he reported on the Atlantic Provinces 12 minutes ago. Two minutes until  9 30 and maybe he'll report. If he reports I'll repeat.


    by Flavius on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 9:29pm

    Still nothing new at  9 37


    by Flavius on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 9:38pm

    I'm watching CBC in Montreal, which is beginning to report some Quebec and Ontario results. I'm trying to stay legal, so I'll post only at 10 p.m. If it's cool with everyone, I'll start a new thread at that point. OK?


    by acanuck on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 9:49pm

    By the way, I was wrong about the Prairies closing at 10. They closed at 9:30, just like Ontario and Quebec. But results are still embargoed till 10, when the last polls close in B.C. Eight minutes to go!


    by acanuck on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 9:52pm

    Great idea.


    by Flavius on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 9:53pm

    It's gonna be very very close. NDP doing fabulously compared to their historic high in seats, but can they keep the Tories from a majority? The next half hour will tell a lot.

    by quinn esq on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 9:49pm

    Maybe the mounties staged a raid? Tres subversive.

    Update: oooor maybe he was just under a temporary ban. Bunch of stuff up now.


    by kgb999 on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:03pm

    OK, kiddies! Fresh blog up (CANADA VOTES 2011).

    Over to you, quinn? TV's in the other room, so I'll watch for a bit.


    by acanuck on Mon, 05/02/2011 - 10:03pm