The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age

    Obama's quick Gallup recovery

    By Flavius on Wed, 10/24/2012 - 2:26pm |

    Today's Gallup  tracking poll has Obama back up to a 47% approval rating. That compares with recent history as follows

    Gallup’s " likely voter" reports 

                                                  Obama’s Rating

    Seven days ending

     

    Oct  1                                                    48

     

            2                                                      48

     

            3                                                      48                           First debate     

     

            4                                                     48

     

            5                                                48

     

            6                                                      48          

     

            7                                                      48

     

            8                                                      47

     

            9                                                      47

     

         10                                                      47

     

     

     

          11                                                     47                           VP debate

     

          12                                                     47

     

          13                                                     47

     

          14                                                     47

     

          15                                                     46

     

          16                                                     45                           Second debate

     

          17                                                     45

     

          18                                                     45

     

          19                                                     45

     

          20                                                     45

     

     

         21                                                      45

     

         22                                                      46                           Third debate

     

         23                                                      47

     

     

    Analysis                

     o Obama’s weak Oct 3 debate took 5 days to offset his earlier ratings sufficiently to cause a 1% drop.

    o Biden’s defeating Ryan on the 11th had little effect as Obama’s ratings continued to slump to 45 by the 16th- , the second debate day.

    o A week later, on third debate day, the poll finally rose to 46 probably due to that second debate.

    o But then,unusually today it continued up to 47% . Which clearly indicates Monday's favorable swing  must have  been several points.For comparison , as discussed above,  after Oct 3 his  rating decline  was not sufficient to cause an immediate down grade. Conversely in the polling since Monday  he must have achieved an improvement of several points in order for it to so quickly offset the lower ratings of the previous six days still included in the 7 day tracking poll system.

     

    Just mathematically , it won't stop now  at 47.As last week's 45 point days cease to be part of the calculation the tracking poll number Gallup reports has to climb faster

    .

     

    Comments

    Interesting.

    My President is ahead in so many 'swing states' that I just do not understand the media's attempt to make this a close race.

    Except that ratings go up as far as debates and election coverage every time it is claimed that we are in a horse race.

    I know the dems need everyone to show up at the polls and that recently enacted laws in many states have attempted to keep citizens from voting.

    I know the repubs figure that if it is not shown that they are going down, down, down.

    We also understand that polling companies make more money in a horse race; that campaign out-sourced corporations make a mint in a horse race; that newspapers and web sites make more money if there is a horse race....

    I saw my first Mitt advertisement on MSNBC today. It is not that I watch MSNBC 16 hours a day or anything.

    I just think that all this is a sham; even though I am certainly caught up in this sham.

    I read 5? articles today on mainstream web sites that no matter who wins the election the losers will claim fraud; fraud in the machinery used to count votes; fraud in the registration rolls; fraud in messaging from the state officials involved in the counting; fraud in messaging from candidates...

    If I was a senator and Mitt won, I would vow to filibuster every single damn initiative he ever sent the Senate. Nothing accomplished would be better than something accomplished according to his fascist initiatives.

    And the repubs will do the same if Obama secures another term.

    After reviewing Nate Silver and a number of other number crunchers; Mitt is dead as far as I am concerned.

    I am getting 50 emails a day from dem groups telling me to do something; asking me to give money; praying that I vote correctly.

    And there is no algorithm around that would not peg me as a liberal dem.

    The dems have more folks 'on the ground' than repubs by a factor of two or three.

    Nobody knows what Americans think.

    But I know that almost every time an election ad comes on the tellie I change the channel or mute the sound.

    I cannot believe that most Americans do not do the same thing.

    We just had a debate aired at a time when the NFL was televised along with the last playoff game determining the team to meet Detroit at the World Series. And so I was flabbergasted that some 56 million folks 'tuned in'.  Did these folks go back and forth from the games to the debate?

    I am ranting on long to long.

    I do believe that the South will vote for Mitt by a percentage of 65%-35%.

    The numbers involved in those states might push the popular vote north of the median but I am sure that the electoral college is going to kill the repubs.

    My prediction is that 320 votes in the electoral college will go to Obama.

    But the state by state Congressional elections keep me on edge and watching the returns closely.


    by Richard Day on Wed, 10/24/2012 - 3:48pm

    I agree with everything except your saying you are ranting too long, Rant away!


    by Flavius on Wed, 10/24/2012 - 5:05pm

    The result  of the poll for the seven days ending Oct 24 was still 47. My prediction is that it will soon go back to at least 48. We'll see.


    by Flavius on Thu, 10/25/2012 - 1:08pm