MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
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MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE by Michael Wolraich Order today at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop |
Looks like Netanyahu's rather foul and downright ugly campaign will put him on top of principal challenger Isaac Herzog after the final polls from last week seemed to suggest that Netanyahu's Likud Party was in free-fall. Now, absent extraordinary circumstances, even though President Rivlin could give Herzog first crack at forming a coalition--and I think it's fair to do that since these are elections Bibi called two years before elections were required to be held and, to me, he should be held to a higher standard, i.e. Herzog's strong showing reflects dissatisfaction with the incumbent and so he should get a crack at putting something together. Probably won't happen, but then it's too bad I think. Rivlin is calling a for a unity coalition, but Bibi said no way -- in campaign -- now it's after the campaign, etc. Joint Arab bloc looks to be performing well and could possibly finish third in the popular vote.
Kind of bummed about this actually. Guess I had my hopes up that Herzog was going to get a shot. Still possible, remotely so, but damn. Rough days coming.
Here's some other links:
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4638134,00.html
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/In-victory-speech-Netanyahu-says-h...
Comments
This is a latest actual count, showing Bibi's Likud party with a five percent lead, higher than expected, over the Labor/Kadima coalition (Herzog):
by Bruce Levine on Tue, 03/17/2015 - 8:52pm
Are the combined Arab groups going to refuse to join any coalition (even ZU) because of conditions in Gaza? Is Kahlon going to side with Netanyahu?
by rmrd0000 on Tue, 03/17/2015 - 9:58pm
As I understand things, the Arab parties are committed to stay together as a unit to enhance their authority by voting as a bloc. But things happen in the second phase. As to Kahlon, he could be included by Netanyahu but it almost looks like Bibi, if he wanted to, could form a hard right majority, with Bibi being toward the left of the group. Here's latest results:
by Bruce Levine on Tue, 03/17/2015 - 10:01pm
So, if this is how things shake out, and 90 percent of votes are counted, Likud is half-way there with 30, Bennet's party is another 8, UTJ and Shas (two religious parties) give him another 14, and Lieberman gives him 6. That comes to 58 right there, and Kahlon's bloc would give him 10 and put him over.
For Herzog, he starts with 24, plus 4 from Meretz, and 11 from Lapid, and I think if he had a shot he would be able to woo Shas (I think), with 7 seats. But that would leave him with 46. I guess it's possible if he could get Kahlon and convince some of the folks from the Arab coalition to break away and beome part of the government.
President Rivilin, probably former President Peres, and probably most of the rational folks understand that the best thing to hope for at this point is a unity government. But if you're Bibi, what is the incentive. Not sure, but I think it's still murky because in the end there are just so many Israelis who just don't want Bibi and certainly do not want such a hard right-wing government.
Just all kinds of bad vibes about this. Kind of like Bibi and his supporters really should be careful what they wish for.
by Bruce Levine on Tue, 03/17/2015 - 10:13pm
Thanks for your analysis. This also complicates things in the United States. Bibi's hardline on the two-state solution may mean that the U.S. is isolated as a supporter of Israel. The other nations involved in the nuclear talks with Iran are likely already upset with Israel for attempting to scuttle the negotiations. Here in the States, Israel will be pegged by some as an openly apartheid nation. There is nothing good coming out of this vote. The economic situation in Israel seems to be on the back burner.
by rmrd0000 on Tue, 03/17/2015 - 11:30pm
You're welcome. Just keep in mind one thing. . .man plans, and the Lord laughs. Let's see what develops.
by Bruce Levine on Tue, 03/17/2015 - 11:35pm
Interesting article in NYTs about the third place finish by the Joint Arab list, with 13 seats. To your question on joining up with Herzog or another zionist party (my bold):
by Bruce Levine on Tue, 03/17/2015 - 11:22pm
Here is an early take by Jonathan Chait
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/03/netanyahus-vision-for-post-...
by rmrd0000 on Tue, 03/17/2015 - 11:35pm
Israeli politics is even more depressing than American politics.
by Michael Wolraich on Wed, 03/18/2015 - 12:54am
American exceptionalism.
by barefooted on Wed, 03/18/2015 - 1:20am
True, except when it isn't, or something. I was going to write that you can look at the glass as being 9/10s empty or 1/10 full, but I don't know.
Seriously though as an afterthought (which is how I roll more and more it seems), the twitter world is twittered/littered with glee from these folks on the American right who are celebrating what they seem to see as a defeat for President Obama? Talk about short-term thinking. The wiser ones understand that the remainder of President Obama's term will not be easy for Israel, regardless of who is PM, and that's because I believe the president is likely to publish and endorse -- most likely with the EU -- a framework for a permanent two-state solution. That "executive action" (see what we're learning? :)) will be there when the next president takes the oath of office and remain like an 800 pound gorilla; it will not be easy to disown or ignore. The presence of Bibi and the real disagreement he has with President Obama on substantive issues and in particular Iran will not help.
by Bruce Levine on Wed, 03/18/2015 - 6:46am
David Horovitz is the editor of Times of Israel, on why he believes Netanyahu won:
. . .
by Bruce Levine on Thu, 03/19/2015 - 8:03am
Here's a final thing I want to get down as a marker for future discussions about where US/Israel policy is going. What I find particularly interesting is that I truly believe that those of us in the left of center blogosphere will be far less likely to be surprised by steps the president is likely to take in the remaining years of his presidency to significantly alter the nature of America's relationship with Israel. I believe this to be so because many of you have been advocating for some kind of a shift or another for years. And many of you should be proud that the president appears to get what some of you have been pining for well before it was cool to be doing so. This is a generalization of course, but worth pondering.
In a way, and I'm not prepared to argue this point, but I am thinking that Bibi, bad or good, continues to be useful as a pretext to convince others not so informed as I believe most of us are through increased communication on the internet, is just a bad man who should not be trusted. And I have generally believed that to be true for many years in large measure. And I believe I've followed his career since its inception.
But, here's the thing, changing the U.S. position on attaining a two-state solution from one in which a negotiated agreement between the parties was an imperative for any peaceful solution, to one now centered on setting forth the terms of settlement through the UN or with the EU (as I've discussed elsewhere in this thread), should not be done on the basis of what the MSM and the DC establishment have unanimously, lazily, or purposely concluded that Bibi has abandoned the 2-state solution. On that point, I think Bibi said what he said for desperate and nasty political reasons. But I submit it was said in the context of the existing circumstances with respect to ISIS et al generally, and the related extremist support in both the West Bank and Gaza -- with Gaza in the full control of Hamas, and with the West Bank which many say would be in control of Hamas were Abbas to permit long-delayed elections. [By the way, Twitter reinforces that much of the MSM is lazy and herd-like and not always very analytical when it comes to all kind of stories.]
Edited to add for clarification -- What I'm saying is that I believe that Bibi will say he was saying that he cannot think of two-states in the face of Hamas, ISIS and the overall chaos in the Middle East. He's certainly right about chaos, and while one may argue that this means there should never be two states, Bibi will say he said (consistent with a point he's made in the past) that you cannot negotiate a new state under existing circumstances because it places the frontline of various Middle East civil wars at its border. One can dispute Bibi's good faith, as I often do, but as to the facts on the ground he has the advantage of being absolutely correct (from the border with Lebanon, to the Golan and that with Syria, and perhaps soon Jordan) it is not the same thing as the problems between Denmark and Sweden.
You may disagree with me and go to the English translation of what Bibi said actually said in Hebrew or you may do the reverse, but I submit that the Administration is harping on the so-called "abandonment of 2 states" because it is helpful to it as pretext for moving ahead with additional steps relating to Israel that are more in line with where most of the international community appears to be on Israel. The pretext is necessary because some people actually believe that the reason things are bad with Israel is because Bibi and the president don't get along, and that underlying that relationship is the intransigence of Bibi, period and end of story. Those folks, the Democrats you see in Congress stand out for example, need to have a villain forcing a change in policy -- changes that many of us have spoken and argued about for years.
If the Secretary-General of the Arab League defended Bibi with his recognition of what was said being totally related to the campaign, so too could the Administration -- but only if it wanted to. Here's Arab League Secretary Nabil Elarby on Bibi's so-called new position:
Apparently the remote possibility that Bibi's statement was not a change in policy has been lost on this Administration, as it leaks (or openly reports) now that it has suddenly seen a need to explore changes to long-standing American policy because of what Bibi said in the final days of the campaign. Two responses to that: (1) balderdash; and (2) Administrations in glass houses centered on Iran policy should be the last ones to be throwing stones about the significance of what is said in a campaign.
by Bruce Levine on Thu, 03/19/2015 - 9:07am
Here's what Secretary of State spokesperson Jen Psaki said yesterday concerning Bibi's statements and their significance [my bold]s:
by Bruce Levine on Thu, 03/19/2015 - 9:12am
The problem for Israel is, it is clear they are not an honest broker in the middle east peace process. That really doesn't benefit anyone.. it's too bad, but I imagine that Mr. Netanyahu will f this up somehow with his brazen BS. Coalition governments are hard...this one is going to be really hard.
by tmccarthy0 on Thu, 03/19/2015 - 9:14am
I wish he were more likely to build a coalition government with Labor. I think the chances are slim because he wants to have his center-right government (which, and I think he's totally wrong here long-term, is expected to make it easier for him to govern). If the relations were better with the Administration, it might have more influence to kind of push things toward that coalition (as Israel's president has made noises about), but from a base political perspective, what does Bibi get by giving up the chance to govern without initial and structural opposition in his govenrment.
by Bruce Levine on Thu, 03/19/2015 - 9:33am