FlyOnTheWall is my favorite non-dagging blogger at the TPM Cafe. He/she is the uncontested pollmaster of TPM. If you're feeling anxious about the election or just curious about the accuracy of the polls, I highly recommend his/her latest post.

Some excerpts:

Perhaps the most important demographic group in this election is also the most reliably Democratic - Black voters. In the early voting, they turned out at rates that defied predictions - 35% of voters in Georgia, 36% in Louisiana, and 26% in North Carolina. Each of those numbers far exceeds their percentage of registered voters, not to mention eclipsing all past turnout records. As a demographic group, they're voting fairly monolithically for Obama, and have put a number of reliably red states in play.

...

There's a reason McCain waited until the final days to unleash his nastiest, most divisive message. It's a desperate ploy. He always knew that these attacks would shore up his support and increase his numbers in the polling. But his campaign also understood that to be a Pyrrhic victory - his core support isn't enough to win the state, and these attacks sink his final hope of winning over the moderate swing voters. So the undecideds - mostly conservatives and Republicans who didn't like either candidate - are coming back to McCain. But in the process, he's alienating enough voters to seal Obama's victory. In short, Obama is now less likely to win Pennsylvania by double digits, but perhaps more certain than ever of carrying the state. Ironic, no?

...

The polls open in forty-eight hours, and the only question left is the margin of Obama's win. How many electoral votes will he carry? Which red states will turn blue this year? How many senators and representatives will travel to Washington on his coattails? Is that hubris? Presumption? Am I tempting the fates? No, not really. Perhaps a third of the votes have already been cast, and we have a fairly good idea how they break down. We've got reams and reams of polling data - this isn't 1948 - and the polls have continued right down to the wire. We don't know all of the details, but we can be certain of the headline.

And fly, should you read this post, you're welcome to cross-post at dag any time.