The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age
    Dan Kervick's picture

    Doing What Needs to Be Done: Facing the Future with Full Employment and a Renewed Public Sector

    As you read this, millions of Americans who desperately want to work either cannot find employment at all, or cannot find the quantity and quality of work they need to meet their own needs and the needs of their families.  This is real suffering.  The unemployed are real flesh-and-blood people, not just fractions of percentage points on Labor Department spreadsheets.

    At the same time, we have tremendous unmet social needs.  Any well-informed high school student can point to large, daunting national challenges that we sorely need to address, but that we are not addressing with anything approaching the urgency and commitment that the gravity of the challenges would seem to demand of us.

    So the availability of unemployed human labor power is extremely high, while the need for applied, energetic human effort is extremely acute.

    Mainstream textbook economics tells us that these kinds of problems are supposed to solve themselves without the need for active government intervention.  The availability of some resource, on the one side, and the need to acquire those resources, on the other, are supposed to meet and court each other in the market.   The former comes dressed as supply, and the latter as demand.   Supply and demand curves intersect and copulate, give birth to a price and - voila! – the market clears as the satisfied suppliers and demanders perform their happy jig of mutual gratification.

    Clearly, things are not working out the way, or at least not with the alacrity that the textbook accounts would suggest and that moral decency would require.  Here in the US, while those sterile supply and demand curves languish in the logical space of macroeconomic theory, the sorry employment scene has settled down into a new normal of persistently high joblessness with no end in sight.   Yet much of the national discussion of the problem of unemployment in the United States is bogged down in pedantic side-discussions, commingled with cantankerous ideological stubbornness.  The political class addresses the employment crisis with lame half-measures or impotent shrugs on one side of the debate, and with malevolent snickering and scapegoating of the jobless on the other side.  Where the politicians rise above their pattern of neglect to put forward actual policies, the solutions offered consist in part of schemes to bribe corporations and their lobbyists into hiring by greasing corporate palms with crony tax giveaways.

    What seems to be missing in the debate is public consideration of the most obvious solution:  A nation faced with both pressing unmet needs for work and a large pool of available unemployed workers, and that also possesses sovereign control over its own currency system, can take on the responsibility of organizing the needed work itself, and then set about directly hiring and training the workers to do that work.

     

    [Continued at New Economic Perspectives]

    Comments

    Good read. Thank you for the post. You have written many things that crosses my mind. By. Trkingmomoe.

    Thanks for reading it!


    Commie. 

    "also possesses sovereign control over its own currency"

    Have you read Polyani?  It's worth pondering how much control we have when our currency is the international reserve currency--i.e. the world's preferred liquid store of value. As you well know we certainly don't have democratic control over it. It's clear that the Fed takes its low inflation mandate much more seriously then the tacked on full employment mandate. 


    1. Say hello to the friendly bond market:

    http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/7591

     


    Thanks, Dan, what an impressive treatise.

    The unemployment ranks are a national emergency which in economic terms are on a scale with WWII. We have large groups of workers who are simply unemployable in profit making enterprises. We need to prime the pump, and develop infrastructure projects to put these people to work. We would all benefit from so doing, so it is in our self interest. It's also the right thing to do.


    Dan, while I agree with you in principle, you might want to note that supply and demand curves languish in microeconomic theory, not macro.  Macro is about a completely different set of models and equations: quantity theory of money, IS-LM, foreign exchange, etc.  Not only that, but quite of few of those curve-addled economists you seem think cleave so tightly to awful textbook economics have actually been out in public demanding exactly what you prescribe in this piece: Krugman, Stiglitz, Baker, Thoma, DeLong, Romer (both of 'em), Galbraith, etc.  And the thing is, if you listen to what they're actually saying, they'll tell you they recommend that course of action precisely because of what it says in those economic textbooks, not in spite of it.


    Your listing of the names of several of my favorite economic thinkers of our day prompts an aside leading to a digression, one of my specialties here at dag.  The Century Foundation, which has upgraded in recent years to become in my estimation the best national, broad-issue think tank in the U.S., recently added both Thoma and thinker-doer union activist Amy Dean to its staff.  


    Interesting.  I have a lot of respect for Thoma, particularly for the way he's fostered a space on the 'net for broad discussions about economics that remain relatively free of personal bullshit and shallow ideology.  If it's about economics, on the web and interesting, chances are it's on Mark Thoma's blog.


    Good catch on the micro/macro mistake.

    But I disagree that most of the liberal economists you mention have been calling for a massive ramping up of the public sector.  They are mostly calling for additional rounds of fiscal "stimulus", which they usually regard as a kind of emergency measure required only during a recession or a liquidity trap, after which we should return to central bank managed macroeconomic stabilization.   My piece is about a global mobilization of the public sector similar to the kind of mobilization one gets in wartime, and argues that the private sector is persistently incapable of organizing all of the work that needs to be done.

    In other words, you could say I am calling for a new era of "big government."  I regard neoliberalism of both the freshwater and saltwater varieties as a giant social failure.

    The problem with curve-thinking, as I see it, is that it is almost always acausal.   The diagrams only relate quantities, usually atemporal quantities, and with no insight into causal mechanisms.  Once people move away from the curves to engage in causal reasoning and policy recommendations they start importing all kinds of behavioral, historical and institutional assumptions that go well beyond the diagrams.  I think economists do better when they propose and debate data-informed causal narratives, and forget most of the curves they learned.


    I've spent a lot time over the last couple of months trying to absorb the MMT perspective, but I've come away with the impression that the core of MMT, which seems to me basically be an accounting perspective on how money is actually created, mostly arrives at semantic differences (ie what is "fiscal" and what is "monetary").  Where it is prescriptive, this is the result of a normative preference for certain outcomes.  That's fine, but it's not really modern (Chartalism has been around for a long time), monetary or even a theory.  It's a theory in the same sense that a description of the way an internal combustion engine works is a theory.  Again, I think the technical description of money creation offered by MMTers is undoubtedly accurate, but it doesn't actually prescribe anything and where MMTers do, there doesn't really seem to be a lot of daylight between them and the Neo-Keynesians.  Galbraith's back and forth with Krugman on MMT is revealing here.  They were both saying the same thing: Get money out there, whether you want to call it fiscal or not, until inflation starts to actually show up.

    Your description of "curve thinking" seems woefully simplistic to me.  What you've said applies only to comparative statics.  It's not as if economists don't do time series, econometrics, etc.  It's not like they don't spend an assload of time identifying those actual causal mechanisms.  Read the QJE.  Literally every single issue is full of studies that dance and sing in all the ways you demand.  Personally, I regard economics as a science.  Theory is good and helpful, but we also need to cleave theory to empirical evidence.  Normative preferences couched in preferred narratives is not economics as I see it.  It might be political economy, but it's not economics.

    EDIT: As a question intended to provoke further thought, it occurs to me that you could potentially levvy the same criticisms against Newtonian mechanics.  When physicists try to solve a problem using, say, a free body diagram, there are all sorts of things they aren't taking into account.  And for the things that they are, crazy assumptions are made - like gravity.  There is literally no viable causal mechanism for gravity in modern physics.  It's just assumed that it's there and that it's Gmm/d^2 everywhere.

    So, is Newtonian physics a failure?  I can use it to understand and predict all kinds of useful stuff - even though it's technically wrong and lacks "causal narratives" for many key components.  Similarly, Neo-Keynesian economists are currently prescribing basically the same fix as prominent MMTers, but the Neo-Keynesians are advocating it because it's what the theory says to do.  In this case, there's a good deal of empirical evidence that indicates the Keynesian model has enough explanatory power to be useful.

    Newton didn't know relativity was coming.  Keynes didn't know we'd see severe supply shocks, he couldn't have predicted the transformation of the global banking system in the post-war era, he didn't incorporate everything we now know about asymmetric information or behavioral quirks (though he did seem aware of them as "animal spirits").

    So, what say you Dan?  Do you buy my analogy?  Do you regard Newtonian mechanics as a failed project?


    Dan, DF, others, what are the main differences in policy implications for Keynesian vs. neo-Keynesian approaches?  I've done a little reading on the conceptual differences but don't have an especially clear grasp of that, either, so would also appreciate your take on that.   


    Keynes identified what he called the "paradox of thrift."  He was studying demand-side economic shocks essentially.  If you consider what Dan says above about supply and demand intersecting and creating a market clearing price, Keynes was trying to understand how that system could break down on a massive scale.

    So, think about how when we entered this recession (depression?), we heard a lot about how we have to "tighten our belts" and "take our medicine" in order for markets to clear (heard more than a bit of that here at Dag even).  Keynes realized that this was a fallacy of composition.  Even though buckling down and being frugal when times are tough makes all the sense in the world to an individual, when everyone does it at once it makes things worse. If your only solution is belt-tightening, you're going to end up feeling like you're getting the business from a boa constrictor.

    So, Keynes said that the thing to do was to stop this cycle by essentially just giving money to people who would spend it.  People have immediate needs - food, clothing, shelter - that they will spend money on if they have it.  This puts other people back to work and hopefully leaves a vicious cycle behind for a virtuous one.

    Keynes argued for direct fiscal stimulus as a result.  You may have heard his famous (infamous?) plan to dig a hole, bury money in it, and then pay people to dig it up.  Contemporary Neo-Keynesians have argued that this money would be best spent on things that we actually need, like our crumbling infrastructure.  Another policy implication from Keynes is unemployment insurance.  If a robust social safety net is place, people who lose their jobs won't stop spending money, which results in other people losing jobs, and the cycle wouldn't have a chance to get so vicious.

    The other major school of thought, at least in contemporary American economics, is monetarism, which is more or less from Milton Friedman.  Keynes lost his luster in the 1970s when stagflation reared it's ugly head.  According to old school Keynesian theory, you just couldn't have rising inflation at the same time you had rising unemployment.  For instance, right now you have basically no inflation, possibly even deflation, and high unemployment.  That's classic Keynes.  But there were two big differences in the 1970s.  One was that you had some considerable supply shocks - oil in particular - and the other was that you had a new actor on the scene: the central bank.

    The monetary view is not actually all that different than the Keynesian view.  It more or less supports what the Fed has been doing by trying to expand the money supply.  Friedman argued that the central bank could essentially smooth out recessions by either expanding or contracting the money supply.  However, "trying" is the key word presently. As you might have read, much of the money the Fed is releasing is simply piling up in banks.  If you want to know why, MMT is a great way to understand.

    There are other views, sometimes referred to as heterodox since the freshwater (Friedman) and saltwater (Keynes) views tend to dominate contemporary American economics in academia.  One is the Austrian view.  That's where Ron Paul is at.  The problem for the Austrians is that they tend to eschew mathematics as a tool.  Old school Austrians preached what they called "methodological individualism" and argued that economics should more or less be practiced like classical philosophy: a priori reasoning leading to axiomatic systems of thought.  The problem with this is that their axiomatic system ends up predicting that employment should increase during the "bust" phase of their model.  Empirically, this does not seem to occur.  In any case, the Austrian prescription for recession is to go ahead and let deflation do its thing.  Seriously.

    Thinking these three views over, it occurs to me that the powers that be in US and EU are actually closest to the Austrians in their response to the financial collapse of 2008.  At this point, I would even go for some sincere Friedman, but that guy is probably a raving socialist by contemporary standards.

    Anyhow, hope some that made sense.


    freshwater (Keynes ​Friedman) and saltwater (Friedman​ Keynes)

     


    D'oh!  I has fixed it.


    Newtonian mechanics was an extremely successful project.   But the attempt by economists to model their thinking on Newtonian models, with their small numbers of law-like quantitative relationships holding among aggregate quantities, is one of the ways in which economists  frequently go awry.   There is absolutely nothing in the world of human behavior, operating at the level at which economists looks at the world, that fits well into a Newtonian paradigm.  Nothing.  In Newtonian mechanics, the force exerted by one massive body on other is transmitted instantaneously or non-locally.   In fact, even to describe it as "transmitted" is misleading.  It's just a fact in a Newtonian world-model that the force exerted by one body on another corresponds to an equal and opposite force exerted by the latter body on the former, and that these forces operate at exactly the same time, no matter what distance exists between the two bodies.   As the system evolves in time, the forces evolve with the system, and are always equal and opposite.  There is no spatial or temporal lag.  The changes in one body do not have to get transmitted from one body to the other, in the way, say, that mechanical waves are transmitted in some medium.  Also, the laws describe the behavior of entities that have no internal complexity and are all virtually identical, and the description is highly abstract.

    Newtonian mechanics replaced earlier mechanical models in which most physical changes were thought to be propagated by patterns of local contact propagating outward in space, in a continuous path and over a continuous interval of time, with the cause always preceding the effect.  The world of human beings and their social institutions is much more like the world of those earlier models than the the Newtonian models.  There is nothing in the world of human economic relations that approximates the action-at-a-distance regularities of Newtonian mechanics.

    Also, human beings and human institutions like corporations, partnerships, commodities exchanges, unions, households and the like are all very complex and individual, each with a large number of quirks and unique contingent features that are the result of an ever- evolving, novelty generating historical process, where equilibria can only be rudimentary fictions to get a temporary grip on something much more dynamic.  This is nothing like Newtonian mechanics.  It's not even like a more macro-level area of physics like statistical mechanics or thermodynamics.  It draws on the art of social and psychological understanding which is a high-level human cognitive capability for dealing with profound complexity in the human world, and employs cognitive tools that are very unlike the abstract simplicities of models of physical systems.

    I think of economics as a scientifically informed practical art.   The art of understanding how an engine works is actually a much better model for understanding the the study of human economic institutions than the limited and abstract world of Newtonian mechanics.  Physics envy is a route to bad thinking in the study of human beings and their highly complex and contingent institutional system.  (I actually had a philosophy professor as an undergraduate who was both a philosopher of science and an engineer who was a leading national expert on a particular kind of aircraft engine.  In his classes he emphasized that the study of physics, while essential prefatory work, told you little of importance about the design and functioning of the engine in question.)

    The MMT writers would completely agree with you that they are engaged in a predominantly descriptive task, with minimal theoretical elements.  They regard that as a strength of what they do.  They are just attempting to describe how a modern monetary system such as we have in the United States is actually designed and actually functions. You may think what they come up with is uncontroversial, but I can tell you that they get in frequent, strenuous debates with other economists, and not just over semantics.  One of their themes is that the economics profession overall has a woeful understanding of the actual banking system, and that as a result, they make a variety of causal predictions, and policy proposals based on those causal predictions, that have little basis in reality.  For example they reject the "money multiplier" and "loanable funds" paradigms, which are often very central to mainstream policy recommendations for central banks.

    You say the MMTers and Krugman agree on:

    Get money out there, whether you want to call it fiscal or not, until inflation starts to actually show up.

    That is not accurate.  MMTers, as far as I am aware, are very much opposed to the Phillips curve-influence picture of an inherent tradeoff between inflation and employment, and do not believe that engineering inflation plays any inherent causal role in boosting employment.  In fact, whether they are right or not, they regard it as a strength of their approach that we can have full employment and price stability at the same time.

    But crucially, their approach to boosting demand and employment isn't based just on "getting money out there", and the idea that there is some simple quantitative relationship between the "money supply" - measured in any of the popular ways in can be measured - and economic activity.   They think it all depends on how the money is actually spent into the economy.  What they argue is that a monetarily sovereign government can always afford to carry out the needed demand-side fiscal interventions, and they are adamant that central bank quantitative operations are mostly impotent..  They are not tremendously far from the New Keynesians, but there are some very important differences.

    Krugman, Romer, Yglesias and DeLong have all been bogged down for months calling for additional rounds of Fed QE or other new central bank policy wrinkles like NGDP level targeting.  But the MMTers all seem agreed that this is a massive waste of time and intellectual energy.


    Your first graf describes observations, not causal mechanisms.  Newton observed the interaction of forces, but he didn't actually explain the causal interaction. If I push on a wall, why doesn't my hand go through it?  He wouldn't have really known how to answer that question, except maybe perhaps to just deflect it by talking about "solids."  Newton didn't have an understanding of what we now call the normal force.  And he was very dissatisfied with the role gravitation played in his framework, but couldn't seem to do better than "action at a distance."  I guess you can't fault him for that, because no one since has cracked that walnut. EDIT: This reads a bit sloppy to me, but I'm going to leave it as is.  The point simply this: Newton did not have causal explanations for things like gravity or the normal force.  He had an observational account that he turned into a theoretical model - a theoretical model that has been proven not to be correct except for within the limited scope of "human scale" physical interactions.  And the whole reason I'm raising that is because you say you have a problem with economics because it doesn't offer mechanistic causal explanations.  Well, neither did Newton.  For that matter, how about Kepler?  Kepler's law is true, but he didn't even have a theory for it, much less a mechanistic explanation - except the data supported it.  This is not at all unlike many of the findings of modern economics - Okun's law for example.

    But the point is, you were criticizing modern economics for failing to be about "causal narratives."  You said it should explain mechanisms of causal action.  I agree, but I think that's exactly what modern economics seeks to do.

    I don't really care much for your usage of "practical art."  Art is human expression.  Science is human understanding.  That doesn't mean those things don't interact, but they aren't interchangeable.  Understanding ​how​ an engine works, in terms of being able to describe its operation, is not at all the same thing as understanding why​ it works - in other words, understanding things like thermodynamics, thermal expansion, compression of gasses, electricity, etc.  You don't actually need to know the theoretical underpinnings any of that stuff to describe the process of an engine working.  But fixing the damned thing is no art.  I fix and ride old motorcycles.  There might be art in the ride, but making sure the thing runs right could be the difference between a good ride and a seriously bad day.  You can bet I approach that task as a scientific endeavor, demanding precise measurement and thorough testing, not as an exercise in expression or imagination.

    Unfortunately, your description of the task just being too complex and "physics envy" sounds a bit too Austrian to me.  It's basically the same way Mises and Hayek used to talk about their counterparts.  It's no more true now then it was then.  In fact, much less so.

    RE: who speaks for MMT, I have no idea.  I do know that Galbraith, who seems to be regarded as one of the leading proponents, has gone back and forth on this with Krugman over the past couple of years and the end result was that they agreed on what should be done.  If you think Krugman, DeLong, et al. wouldn't want what you're asking for, I'm forced to conclude you just don't follow them very closely.  Pretty much the entire saltwater school was howling for more during the first two years of Obama's term.  You may have noticed that since then we've composed an even less cooperative Congress.  To the extent that those guys have demurred in terms of what they're calling for, it's because they did it for two years to no avail.  So now they're focusing on advocating initiatives that a) have some chance of helping and b) have some chance of happening.  That doesn't mean they wouldn't welcome circumstances that were conducive to much bolder action.

    FWIW, the differences that you mention don't seem very important to me.  Again, they strike me as more or less semantic and primarily descriptive.  No, the fractional reserve banking story that is taught to undergrads isn't accurate, but it gets them beyond thinking of money as green pieces of paper.  They don't teach the double-book story in grad school.  And that's why New-Keynesian PhDs don't seem to find any of what the MMTers are asking for the be controversial.  They agree that we can afford it.  They agree that QE funds are piling up in the banking system.  Again, I wonder how diligently you actually read Krugman et al., because he certainly doesn't think QE might work because of hitting some magic money supply number.  He thinks it will work if and only if the Fed can use it to credibly create credible inflation.  Go back and read the exchange between Krugman and Galbraith on this.  There is no daylight between them on this point.  For their small disagreements on how inflation might eventually show up, they both agree that we are nowhere near enough to that point to be concerned and should actually welcome 4 or 5 percent.

    Finally, all of this has caused me to rethink what you said about comparative statics in the first place.  The thing is, the simple supply and demand graphs that are used to teach freshman are just the beginning.  It's the first baby step in trying to understand a system that is complex and dynamic.  But here's the thing: they're derived from analytical relationships that in most cases have some pretty strong empirical evidence.  Not only that, but they are used ​precisely to build causal narratives​.  They help you understand how things move if supply changes or demand changes or a tax is introduced or whatever you might want to entertain.  They're not temporal because they're not supposed to be.  It's a starting point, not the totality or even the crowning achievement of economics.  And it's only one tool of many.

    All in all, it almost seems like you believe in some kind of mainstream economic dogma that I'm not sure exists.  This stuff isn't lost on practicing economists (except when it is).  Basically nothing that you're complaining about is found beyond freshman courses and even then it is not taught or regarded, at least in my experience, as you seem to think.  IMHO, much of what you've written here seems to misrepresent what is in economics textbooks, what's being taught in courses and what practicing economists are actually out there saying.

    I'm sorry if that comes off too prickish.  I'm really not trying to be rude or offensive.  I've just spent too much time studying this stuff not to defend the parts of it that I think are worthwhile.  I just don't think your description of modern econ, as an academic discipline, is all that accurate.  It may be true of some people (Fama, Cochrane and Taylor come immediately to mind, though I think they say what they because of the political implications more than because they don't understand what's going on), but I don't think it's a very fair characterization in general.

    Economics is not perfect.  And it shouldn't simply ape physics or any other discipline.  What it should do is follow the scientific method: observe, theorize, test.  That has always helped to increase understanding.  The answer is not to somehow sever it or compartmentalize it from science as some "practical art."  The answer is more science.  That doesn't necessarily mean more mathematical complexity.  It means an honest and disciplined cleavage with what is, with empirical reality.  Like all other scientific disciplines, genuine progress depends on Feynman-esque "bending over backwards" to be honest about methodology, findings, claims to knowledge.. everything.


    Don't have to time to barge into your interesting debate about the art of economics but I do want to share this link on the Santa Fe institute.

    http://tuvalu.santafe.edu/~wbarthur/Papers/Pdf_files/ADL_Intro.pdf

    I had a book somewhere that discussed the initial meeting in great detail, but I can't quite recall the name, so this link will have to do. 


    Thanks.  That looks good.  The Australian economist Steve Keen has also been very interested in the application of non-liner dynamics and non equilibrium models to economics.


    Every form of causal explanation explains or analyzes some kinds of causal relations in terms of other causal relations that are not themselves explained, but are only posited.  That's not an inherent problem with the Newtonian style model or any other causal model, including mechanistic "billiard ball" models, or mechanical wave models or field models.  The question is just how well the model applies to the phenomena you are trying to explain or predict.   And my claim in this case about economics is that the Newtonian style of action-at-a distance model is not a very good one for the phenomena being studied in that field.

    Neither I would say is the roughly "thermodynamic" model that a lot of economists seem fond of a good model, in which certain law-like relations and formulaic identities are posited to hold among a few different aggregate quantities.  The problem with such models is that the causal relations go both ways in the model, but in the real world of human institutions they probably don't.   In thermodynamics, you can tweak pressure by changing the temperature, or tweak temperature by changing pressure.  Economists who think this way might believe in some law-like relation relating employment, inflation and the money supply, for example.  But then it turns out they have big disagreements about whether you can influence employment by juicing inflation, or influence the price level by suppressing employment, or influence either by tweaking the money supply, etc.   Anyway I think that whole approach is just way too crude.

    I think economists should think more like doctors or engineers.  Basically, we wouldn't think much of a doctor who attempted to treat all sorts of specific pathologies by tweaking some simple aggregate quantity like the blood volume or the bone weight.  But I read economists making these kinds of recommendations all the time.   Doctors think of a human organism as a very complex system made up of a large number of interacting subsystems with a large number of extremely important and uniquely articulated parts.  They try to understand both general systematic relationships and fine specific details.  There practice doesn't consist of applying an abstract theoretical model.

    Empirical observation is essential, but there are different ways to do it.  A lot of contemporary economic strikes me as too hung up with an inductivist picture of their science.   They acquire a lot of statistical information, which is good, and then attempt to distil from that information some new general law or principle of the kinds that people aim at in physical science.  That strikes me as a technique of limited usefulness in understanding human behavior and institutions.

    I once got into an argument with an economist because I claimed that, based on my own experience in the business world, the economist didn't understand the causes and persistence of unemployment during the current downturn.  Of course, I admitted, my understanding might be flawed because it was limited by my own personal experience.  I suggested that to understand why people weren't hiring, the best approach would be to simply interview and otherwise study a random selection of actual firms.  You want to know why companies don't hire?  Ask them.  You will learn a lot.

    He was aghast at my naivety, and argued that the economy runs on abstract, global macroeconomic principles upon which the human elements making the local decisions couldn't possibly shed any light simply from their own deliberations and observations.  In other words, business people don't know why they aren't hiring and it is pointless to ask them, just as it would be pointless to ask the individual atoms of carbon and oxygen in a burning log why the fire in the log is dwindling.

    To me, this is the kind of pseudo-scientific scientism you find in a lot of economics, and reflects both a woeful lack of common sense as well as a complete misunderstanding of the best ways to study, predict and modify the behavior of the kinds of complex institutional and social systems that economists are actually supposed to be studying.  I think it reflects a misunderstanding of the differences between the physical sciences and the human sciences.  It's the kind of response that come across fairly frequently in my reading, and has made be very skeptical of the recommendations and analyses offered by mainstream academic economists.

    And I feel even more confident about my initial instincts these days, because it seems to me that a lot of economists eventually came around to understanding the recession the way I did, which was basically to say that the problem wasn't some kind of supply side "credit crunch", or a case of "tight money"  but a demand side loss of spendable income out in the world of customers.  Yet I encountered economist after economist early on who seemed to be of the opinion that because the recession began with a liquidity crisis or financial crisis, business's lack of hiring and investment was due primarily to a shortage of credit, and not their perceptions of the existence and size of an actual market for the new production filled with customers with money to spend.  This is one area in which academic economists consistently fail.  They are not active participants in the systems they are studying, but examine them and theorize about them from a distance, and thus miss things that are painfully obvious to participants in the system.

     

    By "art", I don't mean expression or imagination.  I'm talking about practical or industrial arts.  Being a  good carpenter or mechanic or plumber does require precise measurement and careful thinking and problem solving, and an intimate causal understanding of the system they are working on.  But it doesn't require a lot of theoretical knowledge of the physics of carbon atoms, water and steel.  And the people who do understand those physical principles, even though they sometimes make contributions to improvements in the practical arts, might often be very crappy carpenters, mechanics or plumbers.  I wish more economists would aspire to be excellent artisans who knew how to fix and improve broken or poorly running economic and social systems, and didn't aspire to be theorists looking for the simplest laws and principles governing the fundamental elements.   Or at least of they do aspire to be theorists, they shouldn't hold themselves out as people who actually know how to fix a broken economy.

    I agree there isn't that much difference anymore between people like Krugman and Galbraith.  But there used to be - especially on issues related to public debt.  And Krugman has been harping on central bank policies for some time now.  I think he's barking up the wrong tree.  Why does he think the Fed can "credibly create inflation"?


    I'd heard previously only of Black and Hudson.  University of Missouri-Kansas City looks to be an interesting place in this area, at least, as is the broader group you've hooked up with.  Good to finally have a face to place with your name after all these years, too.  

    I thought the piece was typically DanK-ish well written and lively (typos didn't bother me a lot).  One practical question I have is a reservation about the administrative capability of the federal government in today's environment to put large numbers of people to productive, useful work with relatively little corruption.  I mean, Harry Hopkins was an administrative genius during the New Deal with the energy of 10 or 20 mere mortals.  And probably there were fewer regulations in place tending to slow down the process of getting a lot of folks to work quickly.  

    One conceptual question I have has to do with the necessity of a private sector with enough enterprises healthy enough to generate reasonable profits necessary for the tax base to finance the government to deploy these programs.  In the US historically perhaps we've never really known what those industries and enterprises were going to be until they came along.  I'm sure there were people wondering the same thing in years gone by.  

    As we--at least in the U.S.--become more prosperous and hopefully ensure that all of our citizens have necessities and enough beyond that to enjoy sources of opportunities and personal enrichment, perhaps it is less clear what the for-profit sectors and enterprises are going to be going forward that will provide the tax base for a strong public sector and public goods, bearing in mind that everything we are producing and using has to be seen through the prism of environmental sustainability at this point. 

    As David Hume might have pointed out, the future will not necessarily resemble the past in this respect of there being a certainty or an assumption of plentiful, profitable private sector activity and middle-class job and living standard availability, as we have come to expect as the norm in the U.S. and other affluent parts of the world.  If that does not turn out to be the case the need for some pretty radical rethinking of economic and social arrangements seems pretty evident to me.

    The basic idea and argument you advance seems to me still sound for today's world for the near-term, say the next 10 years, and is one I strongly support.

    Also, what is the "JG" reference to in the thread where you posted in full?      


    AFAIK, "JG" is MMTer shorthand for jobs guarantee.


    Thanks, DF--that was my guess from context.  I was just wondering if there was a thread discussing that topic.  It seemed there were a couple of references in DanK's thread suggesting there was such a discussion.


    Yes, there is, although I tried to avoid direct discussion of the controversy in my piece.

    There has recently been a rift of sorts over the job guarantee proposal between some of the more conservative or moderate MMTers, who often work in the financial world and are mainly draw to the MMT description of the financial system and are generally antipathetic to or suspicious of  government intervention, and the more lefty MMTers who tend to be economists connected with the post-Keynesian and institutionalist tradition..  The job guarantee or "employer of last resort (ELR)" proposal is specifically put forward by MMTers as a tool for macroeconomic stabilization.  They claim it "stands the Phillips curve on its head" by showing how a government can achieve price stability by offering a job to anyone willing and able to work and maintaining a permanent buffer stock of government-employed workers, whose wage would effectively set the floor wage in the economy.  The result would be, essentially, a zero-unemployment society.  Part of the debate hinges on theoretical disputes about "chatalism"  - the view that government taxation is primarily responsible for setting and maintaining the exchange value of the public currency.

    I didn't want to get in the middle of this debate, partly because I thought it was missing the point lately.  I wanted to advocate a full employment economy on a combination of moral, social and economic grounds which don't depend too much on the outcome of the JG/ELR debate.


    If you go to the Mike Norman Economics blog, and search back over the posts for the past month or two, you will find numerous posts on the job guarantee, which became quite heated for a while.  Also, there is a very good post by Pavlina Tscherneva at New Economic Perspectives on the topic.  I believe its about a month old.


    Clearly things are not working out....

    haahahahahah

    Yeah.

    Forget the lost, those who find are to be congratulated!

    Forget the incompetent; for they must find their own way!

    Forget the losers for they shall always be with us!

    There is so much needed to be done.

    There are so many ready, willing and able to work on what should be done.

    Good Blog!