Election Thread #1


    The Charlie Cook prediction is comforting as far as nationwide results.

    I find the Texas thing really interesting, as maybe with higher turnout we finally will get to know what they really are made of. I suspect Texas is stranger than conventional wisdom might make it out to be, maybe more like Florida. We are always given this image of lots of Hispanics there not voting for various reasons and everyone presumes they would be true blue if they did. Maybe not?  I.E., Perhaps usual non-voters there end up not liking Trump much, they may still like conservative as far as other races? What if after all the effort to GOTV, it doesn't turn out to be as Dem as the GOTV people expected?

    Edit to add: I see I skipped over the prediction in your Marshall Cohen tweet as well  Expect blue-to-red shifts in FL, NC, TX, OH, IA.

    More like Charlie Cook said:

    Drumpf becoming a night owl like me, stable genius brainstorming at 3 am, this will scare them to come out and vote for me:

    This was at 3 am https://t.co/3zh3tPf0ZW

    — Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) October 30, 2020

    Of note, big picture: this is not a traditional organized way to do GOTV. No campaign advisors for him, he's got Twitter.

    Reid Epstein reporting direct from Little Chute, Wisconsin, right in the thick of cheesehead, none of that big city stuff like Appleton or Green Bay for him...

    lots of important news at their Live Updates but Karni's intro is the best one:

    This looks to me like some young out-of-work performers in LA selling out to gigs doing retro street disco for Trump campaign? (But in NYC we are canceling the similar Macy's Parade-no jobs here for Trump or anyone else)

    I was born on the wrong side of the border :( https://t.co/UgipRQBE1F

    — Eccentrica Jones (@EccentricaJones) October 31, 2020


    Signs of desperate Dem tactics in Florida, heh:

    oh look, what a coincidence-NOT, who has recorded a show to play tonight hanging out at a metaphorical barbershop to shoot the breeze with NBA bigwigs about voting

    he also tweeted this

    Gosh, Lincoln Project's on topic, too--they must all have the same last minute stats that this demo could be crucial in some swing states and districts:

    TODAY! Join @OffsetYRN, @Tip, @YelloPain & @Bakari_Sellers for a live panel on challenges young black males face while voting.
    Watch our #REVOLTBLACKNEWS & @ProjectLincoln special “Vote or Die: The Black Male Impact @BigTiggerShow at 3PM ET. On REVOLT YouTube & #LPTV #VOTEORDIE pic.twitter.com/4sXLsnFJVw

    — The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) October 31, 2020

    some interesting related comments I've run across:

    It is true that pro-Trump twitter has been heavily pushing the young black male vote story for a couple days, spinning that Trump is winning it over, i.e., Breitbart, Fox News, like that.

    As this guy points out, this story at The Root isn't helping the situation, just adds to the buzz:

    I suspect bigwigs like Obama and The Lincoln Project have gotten involved, though, not because of how the majority vote blue but because capturing some of the strayers could turn the tide in places like Miami for Florida and Milwaukee for Wisconsin


    yup, a big focus of both campaigns has turned to black males in the battleground states; battlegrounds are so close that just those few numbers will make a diff:

    Trump won 13 percent of Black male voters in 2016.

    Trump advisers think they will get closer to 20 percent next week.https://t.co/nuXQxKHUGw

    — Annie Karni (@anniekarni) November 1, 2020

    Everyone goes "who are these undecided voters?". Well, there's one answer.

    she's  a liberal, anti-Trump, a feminist Erika Stallings @quidditch424 Attorney, BRCA awareness advocate. Words in NYT Opinion, NPR, O Magazine, ZORA, Huffington Post, Washington Post and others. Contact: [email protected] erikastallings.com Joined March 2009

    Here's the rest


    I suspect that, similar to what The Lincoln Project does, Obama is doing the ridicule thing so that Joe can stay on positive message and not get stuck playing games with the troll:

    Obama: What is his obsession with crowd size? This is the one measure he has of success. He still worrying about his inauguration crowd being smaller than mine... Does he have nothing better to worry about? Did no one come to his birthday party when he was a kid? pic.twitter.com/xgYlC7dRuL

    — Acyn Torabi (@Acyn) October 31, 2020

    Maggie Haberman retweeted (hoping for a new gig soon?)

    With this latest news, I am increasingly willing to believe what Bauer said. The Dems do seem to have the best lawyers and are handling all the problems:

    BREAKING: Texas Supreme Court DENIES petition seeking to toss out almost 127,000 Harris County votes cast in drive-thru lanes.
    Denial is without comment.

    — Chuck Lindell (@chucklindell) November 1, 2020

    What I am seeing is everyone gets all het up about every instance of GOP  trouble, but it gets challenged and rectified real quick. Ends up reading a lot of stories that end up much ado about nothing. Not that people shouldn't report it ASAP, they should--that's why Obama and others have put up those phone numbers to call-but Dems have a big army working on every report and fighting right away. Dems seem to have an exceptional force ready to meet any contingency. Seems to be the opposite of the Gore/Bush election where conservatives working to steal the election and  were on top of everything and the Gore team was always behind the eight ball.  GOP efforts to discourage and screw up voting seem haphazard and wacky, and the Dem team has gone 100 ways to Sunday to have contingencies for what they might do.

    Trump ready to flee?

    Bill Scher on polls - awfully stable &consistent, unlike 2016


    'You are no longer my mother': How the election is dividing Americans

    Twitter has taken this Reuters story and given it a "special event" url, so they are probably seeing a lot of retweets of it with a multitude of "MeToo" comments containing angst and gnashing of teeth rending of garments etc. Sometimes their algorithms are like a thermometer for fevers within the nation

    Fortunately Covid will clean up the mess. 



    ^^^ just noticed now, IT'S BOTH NATES! Silver is replying to Cohn, basically confirming Cohn's own NYT article that We'll see you in Florida, Georgia and North Carolina tomorrow night

    Obama is stumping in Miami:

    hits me that he's the ideal one to send to a multi-culti cauldron like that! where there's also a lot of quirky special interest groups and more divisiveness by ethnicity than by race or class

    (Reed Galen of Lincoln Project retweeted)

    great question:

    strikes me as the correct way to address those suckers, mano a mano:

    co-authored WaPo op-ed by Obama's A.G. Holder and Bush's A.G. Mukasey:

    Dan Rather recommends we read Charlie Cook's essay on the Trump campaign's six faulty assumptions:


    How Long Will Vote Counting Take? Estimates and Deadlines in All 50 States

    By Alicia Parlapiano @ NYTimes.com/Upshot, Updated Nov. 2, 

    has updated interactive chart with each state and particulars including whether Solid D, Solid R or Tossup and things like how many days after postmark for mail ballots

    Although many winners may quickly be evident on election night, the increase in mail voting because of the pandemic is expected to push back the release of full results in many key states.

    The New York Times asked officials in every state and the District of Columbia about their reporting processes and what share of votes they expect to be counted by noon on Wednesday, Nov. 4. There is a fair amount of uncertainty surrounding results in any election, but here’s what they said to expect:

    Many states will not have complete results on election night.

    Even once the early and in-person ballots are counted, a significant number of votes could still be outstanding. Only nine states expect to have at least 98 percent of unofficial results reported by noon the day after the election. Twenty-two states and the District of Columbia allow postmarked ballots to arrive after Election Day, so the timing will depend on when voters return them.

    New York and Alaska will not report any mail votes on election night. (Rhode Island had also planned not to report mail votes that night, but its election board voted Monday to begin releasing them at 11 p.m.) Officials in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two key battleground states, have said full official counts could take several days.

    The increase in mail voting could also lead to more provisional votes cast, increasing the number of ballots counted later. In many states, voters who have their eligibility to vote questioned at the polls may cast a provisional ballot, which is set aside and counted only when eligibility is later confirmed.

    Usually the number of provisional votes is not large enough to be significant, but there is evidence from early voting that this election may be different. Some voters in at least 23 states are required to vote provisionally if they initially request a mail ballot but decide to vote in person instead (other states have different methods to prevent voting twice). Provisional voting can slow down lines at the polls, and those ballots are generally the last to be reviewed and counted.

    Results are never official until final certification, which occurs in each state in the weeks following the election.

    The results at the beginning and at the end of the night will be skewed in some places.

    The order in which different types of votes are reported could also make one party look stronger at various points in the night [....]

    very brave lady with an endorsement for Biden:

    Nate Silver's probability numbers hot off the press:

    "Sullivan closing out today added that when he saw an astronaut had voted from space he thought there must be something Congress could do to be "tinkering with the system" so everyone can vote just as seamlessly."

    The absentee ballot that NY State sent me after I requested vote-by-mail said on the front of it: "Official Absentee Military Ballot". I am wondering now if they used those on purpose anticipating these issues. I think those have special privileges? Admit it could just be NY incompetence as well, which I have come to expect.

    Gov. Tom Ridge to PA undecideds:

    p.s. perhaps Ridge added "be patient while votes are counted" as a counter to this news:


    Here is a typical Wisconsin version of  whypipple. Politics is not personal there. They don't approve of crime of any kind and they don't like violence. They prize civility and dislike anger (except ranting on talk radio, then it's ok.) This is why I was so worried about how the violent unrest in Wauwatosa and Kenosha would affect how people voted:

    US election: Trump supporter replaces neighbour's stolen Biden sign @ BBC News

    Tim Place is one of the few Joe Biden voters in his Wisconsin neighbourhood. When his Biden-Harris sign was stolen, he got some unexpected help - from a Trump-supporting neighbour.

    538 final: easy House, 3/4 chance to flip Senate (yet complex, a myriad of possible outcomes and seat margins), and overall a stable very good chance that Biden wins, though a very real 1/10 chance Biden loses or ends in a tie.

    Note that extreme early voting blows away any chance _likely voters" don't show up - a vote cast is already banked, unlike 2016 where much less early voting (vote theft and ballot disqualification aches still if concern, but Democrats seem pretty well prepared to contest any issues and actually mobilize, unlike prior elections). This time there are far fewer undecided voters, so it's really about GOTV and voter/vote repression or disqualification - which again matters less with those who already voted. Presumably no butterfly ballot/hanging Chad (poor Chad) probs this year, but electronic voting can have glitches and/or be hacked.

    Oh, yes, presumably all this excitement and extraordinary turnout affects state level races, which might change Dem's fortunes somewhat in the legislatures and state courts, though as Gerald Ford wisely said, "No Instant Miracles". Oh wait, that was people flipping his WIN buttons - "Whip Inflation Now" - upside down. Naughty people.

    BTW, anyone seen that ratf*cker Roger Stone? He's been behind 2 coups, worth considering his 3rd attempt.



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