oleeb's picture

    Meet the new boss?

    As Josh points out on the front page,(http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2009/03/if_you_remember_not_long.php) the Chinese, in the usual subtle manner of tyrants and despots throughout history, are reminding us that they have us by the financial balls and are not shy about reminding us of that by giving the American jewels a warning squeeze to let us know who now is boss.  There is, of course, little difference between a capitalist tyrant and a communist one.  Neither has the best interest of the common people at home or abroad at heart.  In this case, the oligarchy of China has been able to maintain and even increase power for itself domestically as it makes the truly great leap from ham-handed communist economics and politics to China, Inc.  For the first time, a ruling oligarchy seems to have successfully and permanently fused capitalist power with self-perpetuating oligarchical power under the banner of communism.  If power corrupts, and I believe it does, then the level of danger the Chinese oligarchy represents is unparalleled and growing both for the Chinese people and the rest of the world because of their success at integrating their system as they have.  Soon, the previously inward looking giant will begin casting it's gaze abroad in a far more active way.  This is so not because the Chinese themselves are evil but because they are human.  We Americans have always held, as our founders did, that the inevitable result of too much power concentrated in the hands of a few will be abused and result in tyranny.  No human being can long resist the temptation of power and the abuse of it. 

    Whatever internal democratic reforms may have been made in China in recent times, the basic power equation has not changed one iota.  The largely unknown powerful few in China are not at all shy about asserting their power and dominance and insist on being in charge at all times in internal affairs.  They have been lying in wait for many years to do so on a world scale.  Like some in America, many of them believe it is China's destiny to dominate the world.  I distincly recall seeing an interview with a Chinese President on CSPANN back during the Clinton years when he calmly asserted that it was only a matter of time before China asserted itself as the dominant nation on earth.  He said they had no doubt about it and were in no hurry because it was inevitable.  The idiotic American imperial adventures of the neocons since the installation of the Bush junta did nothing to discourage this tendency among our powerful rivals in China nor in Russia for that matter either.  In fact, one of the most profound and malignant legacies of the Bush tyranny worldwide is the encouragement it gave to the lawless, inhuman, brutal regimes around the globe to do as they please without regard for international law, any sense of morality, ethics or humanity.

    Bush and the necons and all those who did not vigorously oppose the shortsighted policies of the Bush administration bear responsibility for taking the United States from a position of strength and full independence at the end of the Clinton adminstration to a position of weakness all around in the aftermath of Bush's profligate, shortsighted, and irresponsible years of misrule.  Democrats in Congress are not at all blameless in this regard, but it was fully the policy of the Republican tyrant and his henchmen that put us in the unenviable position we are in today.

    China was happy to lend us all the money in the world and was delighted to trade with us as long as their national interest was the primary beneficiary of the deals being made.  They knew they could rely on the American capitalist class to sell out the interests of their own country in the pursuit of quick and easy profits.  And they did just that. 

    With patience and calm did the Chinese outplay and outfox the American dunce in chief and his gang of looters for eight long years.  The trade imbalance went off the scale.  Our debt to the Chinese became astronomical and continues to grow now because we have no other choice but to turn to them. Our currency is teetering on the brink of becoming no more sound than that of any other banana republic.  Our unsustainable binge of militarist adventurism abroad has weakened our military strength.  Though we continue to be in denial about it, any sustainable economic recovery will require that the United States seriously cutback on the obsence, wasteful, and pointless war spending it consistently engages in regardless of whether or not we are actually at war.  All of the worst problems Eisenhower warned us about regarding the Military Industrial Complex have come to full fruition.  If we hope ever to restore our nation we must free ourselves from the stranglehold of that complex.  If we do not, it will metastisize to the point where it will destroy the nation and itself.

    Will the United States ever be able to get itself out of debt to the Chinese so that our governments and people in the future are not beholden to the Chinese oligarchs as we are today?  The true answer is that we don't know, but we must hope so.  It will take discipline and it will mean we can never again let the kind of criminal tyrants who ran roughshod over our government and our national interest in pursuit of private gain return to power.  In my opinion, there are dozens of matters upon which Bush and his gang of thugs should be put up on charges and tried beginning with war crimes and crimes against humanity.  But among the crimes of the Bush years was weakening our nation to the point of handing a significant portion of our economic future over to an udemocratic, foreign oligarchy.  Bush may well turn out to be the great American Judas who sold out his country for thirty peices of Chinese silver.

    The only card the US really has to play at this point, as Josh points out, is that if the oligarchs of China have us by the balls, well, it is a mutually threatening dillema in that we have theirs in our hands too.  While the Chinese remain in a far more powerful position, being the creditor, we too have a firm grip on the Chinese family jewels because we owe them so much.  What the US owes China could well represent the sort of unmanageable toxic debt to China that the mortgage crisis represents to US financial institutions. 

    In the end, I hope and pray the US disentangles itself from this very poor position because of the threat it represents to the long term health and prosperity of our people.  But it will be important for the preservation of liberty here at home that Americans understand and remember exactly what it was that put us in this position and who is respnsible.  The tyrant Bush put us in this position.  He was the leader of the many criminal enterprises that laid America so low.  Bush's henchmen and his party served as accomplices.  The silence of many Democrats and in the media also aided and abetted these efforts.  The nuances of why those who knew better did not raise the alarm and put a stop to it all matters little at this point.  They failed to protect our country and their failure now leaves us prostrate and weakened in the face of all manner of danger at home and abroad.

    If we are, in the future, to restore America's moral authority in the world which many of us believe has always been our national mission and destiny ("novus ordo seclorum"), then all of us must make sure the bumbling foolishness that got us in this position is never repeated. 

    Comments

    My 8th grade Social Studies teacher told us students to keep our eye on China -- said it was a sleeping giant.


    Is the testosterone metaphor really that apt here?


    The premise here is a bit silly, as if the Chinese are in a position to foreclose on America if China's huge bag of treasury bills tank. You see, they're market instruments with no guarantees beyond the terms of valuation. If they tank, they tank. Tough luck. China bought them in self interest.
    So one has to wonder why Wen Jiabao was driven to make useless remarks that could only rattle the markets if anything. Maybe out of the nervousness China feels knowing there isn't much they can do stateside to forestall a bad outcome, except perhaps buy more bonds to help Obama out with his recovery plan. "To be honest, I'm a little bit worried," he said. He's "worried" because of the unguaranteed risk.
    And Obama's response was totally appropriate. Calm down old boy, have confidence because there's not much else you can do about it short of starting a war for the seizure of assets.


    Will the United States ever be able to get itself out of debt to the Chinese . . . we must hope so.

    Why must we hope so? Why would the US care to whom its debt is owed?

    I suppose China could decide to rid itself of its USTs. Thereupon it would have to convert the proceeds of its UST sales into renminbi, and the value of the renminbi would rise as against the value of the dollar.

    American products would become more competitive with Chinese goods, and American exports would increase. China would be compelled to rely less on exports and more on raising its domestic living standard.

    That sounds like a win-win situation to me -- but that policy is really up to China and not up to the United States.


    Yeah Ellen, what if we just print a trillion extra dollars and give it to them? Have a nice day!!! We do not borrow it from someone else. We just print it. Hell we could print it in one big bill. hahahaha

    I do not know why that strikes me as funny. But it does.


    Oleeb - I always like your stuff, but this seems off base to me. I think it's perfectly reasonable of the Chinese to worry about how casually the American political mainstream discussion talks of basically defaulting on their debt (yes, inflating it away is the same thing). I find it indecent. And you're verging on jingoism with your intimations of a Chinese threat and reasserting American moral authority in the world - at least insofar as it's put next to the basic position of 'screw them, and let's take their money'.


    I don't know either.


    perfectly reasonable of the Chinese to worry

    But not out loud.

    If you are holding someone's paper, and you are really worried about his solvency, you talk about him like he was Warren Buffett while you arrange for liquidation of your holdings as quietly and quickly as may be done.


    The purpose of the Chinese statement was one of demonstrating dominance as were the military maneuvers earlier in the week. They are letting us and the world know they not only run with the big dogs, but they intend to be the alpha dog.


    That isn't the premise at all.

    Because of our massive debt we are beholden to the Chinese and that is a bad position to be in. That is the premise. We have handed them a great deal of leverage over our own future.


    That particular quote comes from Napoleon...


    I really recommend Jim Fallows latest article it has some great insights for this discussion.

    I love watching China put on water shows and diplomatic Kabuki dances. But I can't help but note some issues:

    Chinese Dawn, (and don't even ask about the rivers and desertification)
    800 million peasants, 200 million!!! looking for work right now. (had a link, but TPM link rules)
    Declining demographics- The one child policy has some serious economic implications. They are aging rapidly

    China has deliberatly suppressed their currency for decades, our debt is a consequence of that. If we inflate, they will be forced to as well; relative postiotions will be maintained.

    They are winning a long term game, but only in the sense that post WWII American dominance was always unsustainable. China is playing its hand well and they will be a major world player, but they have internal problems that we can barely fathom. Nothing is going to change anytime soon.


    Thank you for your reasoned words here. I'm no student of history except to see that there are inevitable rises and falls and that the great masses of humanity nearly always get overlooked and downtrodden. I too can see how terrifying it must be to have so many millions of unemployed people. Unemployed people could be rebellious people. So, China may be "winning" one game or a couple of games, but boy have they got real and potential problems, as you point out.

    No country is the Great Satan.


    Why not Out Loud? They're not worried about solvency. They're worried about a debtor DECIDING to run away from their obligations. I suppose the hope is to shame this country into taking those obligations seriously, but given the discussion around here, that doesn't seem likely. (sorry, I'm grumpy in the morning...)


    I really disagree with you here. There's an unhealthy American paranoia every time some country starts to even approach US clout in any region of the globe. China is a regional player, much more trusted and respected in their dealings by the other players in the region than the US is. And I say that as someone who has lived and worked in a few countries over there...


    Of course we all remember the bad old days of the Bush years, when Bush used to order the military to gather up American citizens in buses, drive them to Wal-mart and force them, at gunpoint, to buy goods manufactured in China. Thank God those days are over.


    I agree. At this point, I'd say the Chinese are being extraordinarily circumspect.


    Agreed. While it's always tempting to talk about these problems as if there are no people involved--as if our strategic decisions can completely ignore human suffering--we can't simply put the Chinese back in their place and no harm done. The fact is, China's future and ours are now inextricably entwined. The Chinese people need us and we need them. Lamenting a world that never was and was never to be is pointless.

    http://www3.nfb.ca/webextension/up-the-yangtze/q-a.php


    I think we basically agree. Either I haven't communicated my point well or you are missing it.


    I just reread your post and comments, and I think we're going to have to disagree on whether we disagree on this...
    ;0)


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