A Tripwire to Armageddon

    Some conservative commentators and John McCain argue that Russia is the clear aggressor in the growing war within the breakaway region of South Ossetia and that the U.S. and NATO should side with the former Soviet republic of Georgia in the conflict.

    McCain has tried to drive American foreign policy from the backseat of the Straight Talk Express. He has called for U.N. condemnation of Russia and an emergency meeting of NATO to discuss securing the Ukraine and the oil pipeline that runs through Georgia.

    A few commentators, including one here at TPM who now disavows George W. Bush solely because he has ordered no U.S. troops deployed to Georgia, are straining at the bit for American military intervention and confrontation of Russia. They propose setting a few combat brigades at the border of Georgia as a "tripwire" that Russia would be too fearful to cross.

    Make no mistake: A tripwire is a trigger, not a shield.

    Whether acting unilaterally or in concert with NATO, the U.S. has insufficient combat troops and reserves to take on the Red Army. Even if a few U.S.-led brigades could be deployed to Georgia as a line against Russian advances, the majority of American combat-ready brigades are stalled in Iraq and in no position to speedily reinforce a token NATO force if the Russians are willing to defy our containment efforts.

    America and Russia never before have faced each other as adversaries along an active battle front. Placing our troops in such close proximity to Russia's will very likely lead to unanticipated consequences, especially given the chaos of war.

    Two superpowers square off over a rebellious enclave allied more to Russia than to Georgia. A Russian helicopter gunship fires on an American reconnaissance unit, killing three. The U.S. responds by recalling its diplomats from Moscow. Russia does the same, but also puts its medium-range ballistic missiles, capable of striking any European target, on alert. ...

    We are not talking about Saddam Hussein and his SCUDS or even Kim Jong Il and a few primitive nukes. We are talking about engaging a superpower with as much prestige, territorial integrity and national security interest at stake as ourselves. And they will not flinch or bow to military pressure any more than we would. Stalemates lead to escalation. Escalation leads everywhere you don't want.

    What the U.S. and NATO and the world community should do is intervene diplomatically to reduce tensions, cool heads, arrange cease-fires and de-escalate the conflict until an agreement can be worked out with U.N. peacekeepers replacing Russian peacekeepers in South Ossetia.

    That's how you end regional wars without fanning the flames or setting tripwires to Armageddon.

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