The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age

    Good enough

    By Flavius on Tue, 01/23/2018 - 12:24pm |

    I'm contradicting myself ( who cares?) but at risk of being seen as the most gullible voter on the East Coast I think the  shut down/end shut down  was a success. 

    I wrote last weekend that then  was the best point for Schumer to go to the mat - altho I believed it would cost us votes in November. Hal and others disagreed  about it costing us , who knows ?Now we won't because at least this shut down was a victim of infanticide.

    Given my mixed  message  ( Schumer should go the whole hog on behalf of  DACA but the shutdown would both cost us in November and ,sadly, foster antagonism against the issue itself and the DACA recipients ) how can I  switch to what I'm saying now?  Well..... that was then. 

    There will be a vote on "some sort of immigration legislation after  Feb 8" pace   Michelle Goldberg..On it's face  isn't  that worse than a vote on ,say, Jan 23?  Not necessarily because

    A  on Feb 8 we may be able to count on most of the gang of 20 . If so it may be 'Chuck not McConnell who will have a filibuster- proof majority, and

    B at a minimum a shut down then won't endanger SCHIP because that unconscionable bargaining chip  has now been severed from DACA

    Bottom line we will be  in at an at least somewhat- and possibly a lot- stronger position on Feb 8 .

    I'll complicate this message with a certainly unwelcome sermon.  Schumer is currently the guy. Maybe he won't work out , we'll see. But until he gives us good reason to believe   the contrary we should assume:

    A he's on our side and

    B.he knows a lot of important stuff that we don't and

    C. the boss is the boss until he stops being the boss. It isn't useful to keep pulling a cake out of the oven to check whether it's been baked..

     

       

     

    Comments

    I dunno. Threatening to shut down the government seems like a dumbass, counterproductive tactic to me. It didn't work for Gingrich in 1995 or Cruz in 2013. Nor have any other GOP threats to blow it all up gotten them what they demanded. Why does anyone think this will work?

    Yeah, I've heard the arguments about why Democrats are supposedly in a stronger position--Trump owns this, DACA is popular, bla bla bla. But there's no historical evidence to back up these predictions, just a lot of wishful thinking. The problem is that time is not on the side of the hostage-takers. Sure, more Americans might blame Trump at this moment, and they might want to help the Dreamers, but the longer it goes on, the more the conversation inevitably shifts from the cause to the shutdown. Whining that Republicans "started" it won't make a difference. The public will see one party that is ready to open the government without conditions and one party that refuses to allow it unless certain demands are met. Sooner or later, some nervous Democrats will cave to the inevitable, and it will all be for nothing.

    I'm all for Democrats using whatever weapons are at their disposal to rescue the Dreamers, but this particular gun don't shoot straight. Threatening to shut down the government is a fools quest.


    by Michael Wolraich on Tue, 01/23/2018 - 12:46pm

    First ,to repeat I think it's sensible to defer to Schumer's judgement  Which by me , has been  OK so far. The three day-over a weekend-  shut down was  a tentative cat-scratch. Non consequential.   While providing some crumbs  to  the 16 dems who didn't agree with him to suspend/defer  until Feb 8-.

    I love them all but want  to carry a majority of the states in 2020 and exclude  the psephological  Dr. Strangeloves from  the next round of redistricting. Or at least their ubiquity.

    I agree that whining : the Republicans have the presidency, the house and the senate! -is ineffective. Inside baseball,  an MEGO for everyone else. Complaining  they're not misusing their power to prevent us from doing what we ought not to do in the first place. "Stop me before I screw up more." 

    And also agree that  if we shut the Govt down we'll be seen as the ones that shut the govt down. 

    My guess is that there will be a responsive bill  out of  the senate. After that I can imagine Trump endorsing it .And taking bows. And of course there's  a simple majority available in the House.But  not a "Hastert majority"  i.e. one among  Republicans alone . For Ryan to let democracy work    Trump/Kelly  would have to actually  lean on him. And for that  the "Senate" bill would have to include the damn fence.

    So include it. And leave it to the next real President to send out the cancellation notices. It could be our Hadrian's Wall. Guided tours. A new way to lower the unemployment rate. And make Las Cruces great again.


    by Flavius on Tue, 01/23/2018 - 4:57pm

    So here's the new program if you are still up to trusting Schumer has thought out what he's doing:

    Schumer withdraws offer on Trump's wall

    Republicans aligned with Trump are unlikely to go for any bill that does not offer a major boost in border wall funding.

    @ Politico.com, Updated 01/23/2018 06:45 PM EST

    Chuck Schumer is taking his big spending boost for Donald Trump’s border wall off the table.

    The Senate minority leader, through an aide, informed the White House that he was retracting the offer he made last week to give Trump well north of the $1.6 billion in wall funding Trump had asked for this year, according to two Democrats. And now they say Trump will simply not get a better deal than that on his signature campaign promise.

    Schumer “took it off,” said Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin, the No. 2 Senate Democrat. “He called the White House yesterday and said it’s over.”

    After the publication of this story, a spokesman clarified that the wall offer was retracted Sunday, rather than Monday [....]


    by artappraiser on Tue, 01/23/2018 - 8:08pm

    Republicans price for temporary Dreamer extensions may be billions more, plus all their other immigration restrictions. They may see Dreamers as the gift (hostages) that keeps on giving.

    Thanks to Dems Dreamers face deportation, I love them but Democrats using them as pawns SAD! Schumer wants to punish The TROOPS and open our borders to murdering gangs! NEED A BEAUTIFUL WALL!! MAGA! @RealDonaldTrump


    by NCD on Tue, 01/23/2018 - 9:52pm

    I'm still up to trusting that Schumer  has developed a cadre of good advisors . And does   what they tell him.


    by Flavius on Tue, 01/23/2018 - 10:56pm

    I agree that the whole thing is overblown. The great catastrophe here is that Schumer agreed to a full three-week extension on budgets talks. It's not like he let Hitler annex Czechoslovakia. That said, this shut-down strategy is a no-win contest. It was and continues to be futile for Democrats to pursue this avenue.

    The Dreamers' fate rests in the hands of Mitch and Paul, unfortunately. A bill to protect them can get a bipartisan majority but only if those cynical bastards permit such a bill to reach the floor. Democrats should worry less about shut downs and more about galvanizing the public for such a bill.


    by Michael Wolraich on Tue, 01/23/2018 - 11:07pm

    We'll see.


    by Flavius on Tue, 01/23/2018 - 11:09pm

    Well, Schumer'd have to be a seer to foresee this level of flip-flopping that just happened especially after he invented a new name for him this morning. I almost  suspect some kinda secret Brooklyn vs. Queens schoolboy shit going on here, they know how to "get each other's goat".


    by artappraiser on Wed, 01/24/2018 - 8:59pm

    It's looking truer every minute that Schumer has some strange bead on manipulating him!  Daily Beast just published this:

    Team Trump’s Goal for the Next Three Weeks: Keep Him ‘The Hell Away’ From Chuck Schumer

    White House immigration hawks want to make sure the president stays away from a moderating influence on immigration

    @ DailyBeast.com, 01.23.18 8:43 PM ET

    by artappraiser on Wed, 01/24/2018 - 8:51pm

    Anyone with half a brain can manipulate Trump (and many do!) Just praise his intelligence and manliness...or denigrate these qualities if you want to get a reaction out of him.


    by Michael Wolraich on Wed, 01/24/2018 - 11:10pm

    Maggie Haberman tweet last night, is a sarcastic suggestion that  the Trump flip flop was influenced by the "Gang of Six" plan and Stephen Miller probably had to deal with that:

    Stephen Miller not having an easy night https://t.co/BrHlpsh7XO

    — Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) January 25, 2018

    by artappraiser on Fri, 01/26/2018 - 12:11am

    The  dreamers are not "illegals."

    Their parents are, we can't win that argument .  So don't try.   But the  dreamers are  obedient children. Is that a crime?  Civilized countries don't   punish children for their parents mis deeds.

    What can we do for the parents?  Get out the vote.

      


    by Flavius on Fri, 01/26/2018 - 10:50am

    Nor are they rewarded for their parents' misdeeds. While there's a certain amount of compassion to the discussion, there's also a certain amount of deceit, cynical "think about the children" used to get the fingers in the door, to then wedge it open further.


    by PeraclesPlease on Sat, 01/27/2018 - 10:42am

    something is certainly going on; and it certainly wouldn't hurt for people to contact their reps on topic:

    More than 30 senators join push for immigration deal

    By Alexander Bolton & Jordain Carney @ TheHill.com, 01/24/18 07:18 PM EST

    More than 30 senators — about a third of the entire Senate — met late Wednesday afternoon to discuss the outlines of an immigration deal before a March 5 deadline for hundreds of thousands of immigrants facing deportation.

    The senators huddled shortly before President Trump announced he would be willing to create a 10- to 12-year-long path to citizenship for Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program recipients in exchange for $25 billion to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border [.....]

    The Hill did a video a few hours earlier before the Trump surprise flipflop:

    Listen: Senate seeks an immigration 'reset'

    By Niv Elis - 01/24/18 04:50 PM EST

    by artappraiser on Wed, 01/24/2018 - 9:30pm

    I know this isn't a super scientific poll but it was striking to me nonetheless:

    The institutions Americans and Chinese call "broken"

    only in that I think it is one of the main memes involved in who has won and who has lost the national elections in the U.S. since like 1980. So I readily admit to bias confirmation here. Still, it's a big majority number there.

    Overall, is it not just a continual cycle of "throw the bums out, this isn't working?" So much so that campaigns play to it so much so that we are inured and don't even notice it?

    The appeal of Independent types from time to time like, oh, Perot, Ventura, Jesse Jackson, Nader, and yes even Trump, though he the ran within the party, and Bernie, even though he did the same,  is that someone like that can jolt us out of the two-party broken governing system? Failure is the status quo, and then there's even tthe known phenomenon of some voting on purpose for a gridlock effect because many have come to expect that if one of the two parties accomplishes anything, it is going to make things worse? That only if it's bi-partisan does it have a chance of being becoming better government?


    by artappraiser on Tue, 01/23/2018 - 7:59pm

    I don't see any overarching lesson in the failure of shut-down politics. Brinkmanship and partisan aggression can be politically effective when done well, even if they're bad for the country. But these shut-down threats just don't work as intended. It's a bad strategy.


    by Michael Wolraich on Tue, 01/23/2018 - 10:56pm

    Every time republicans tried shut downs they failed miserably. I don't see why people think it would be different when democrats try one. Or that republicans wouldn't use the same strategy to stop democrats as we successfully used to stop their shut down attempts.


    by ocean-kat on Wed, 01/24/2018 - 12:48am

    The Dreamers fate is with Republicans, perhaps even with Steven Miller or General Kelly. Elections have consequences, this one put a racist in the Oval Office, and a race baiting Party in control of Congress.

    The Democrats drew attention to the Dreamers with the weekend shutdown, but shutdowns won't get a Republican House, a Republican Senate and a racist nutball Republican President to amnesty "illegals."

    The GOP will only act if the political cost to the GOP for deporting Dreamers is deemed, by enough Republicans, to be greater than not deporting them. Their decision, with a few individual exceptions, will have nothing to do with what's decent, what's Christian or what's good for the nation.

    One thing for sure, Republicans will never vote to give Dreamers a viable path to citizenship.


    by NCD on Tue, 01/23/2018 - 1:46pm

    I think we just won one.

    10 hours ago  who could argue with your summation. Now Trump seems to have opened the door crack. No doubt bad news will come but tonight the "Dreamer" news is good.

    Enjoy! Who know about tomorrow? 

     


    by Flavius on Wed, 01/24/2018 - 11:21pm

    The cult went berserk at Red State , Briebart comment boards.


    by NCD on Wed, 01/24/2018 - 11:24pm

    Thanks for the tip. I see at Breitbart that the shock of "Amnesty Don" is due to the whole "Grahamnesty" plot which they've uncovered in tweets. Coulter's on board with uncovering that one, splaining that Graham is little different than Kucinich. Schumer, who's he?

    Edit to add: What's strange: where's the Susan Collins bashing?


    by artappraiser on Wed, 01/24/2018 - 11:45pm

    I love  their weirdness. Suit's them.

    Nuts. "Mad, bad and dangerous to know".

    I think it will happen.

     o McConnell will allow the vote. The "resistance" hysteria about McConnell's "commitment" was wasted emotion.   

     o Between republicans and "band of 20" dems  there will enough votes for both  "dreamers" and a starter section of the beautiful Wall . Schumer's withdrawn approval  will be irrelevant . As he knows.                                                         

     o House will just go along. Why not?                                                                                                                             

     Nothing to it. A signature  accomplishment for the orange haired fatty.

    The  Mayor of Atlantic City can break a celebratory   bottle of Hoboken's finest  champagne over the first (and  only) completed Wall  section. He's  fully  experienced with Donald's  edifice complex. Grooved swing.

     

     


    by Flavius on Thu, 01/25/2018 - 3:54am

    I like what you said about Breitbart, it explains the appeal to a certain type of young male. It's also a kind of passion that's not lasting, and it's likely that something totally different will be the next Breitbart.  Comes to mind Coulter and Limbaugh are getting really old, getting spotlight for way past expiration date. Hannity's not had it as long and I could see him flip with the wind to keep spotlight. (Remember Bill O'Reilly? Nope, nobody does.)

    On Congress and immigration, I'm with you. That is:hopeful. I see inklings that they are about to get serious, as in: let's actually sit down and finally try to fix this thing and make some laws that last a while. I.E., tired of being at the bottom with the public approval ratings for decades, let's actually do what we are supposed to for once, show them we can do it. You never know, it could happen, Trump could just be the catalyst that broke the camel's back. Like you (and the Buddhist master) said: we'll see.


    by artappraiser on Thu, 01/25/2018 - 4:44pm

    Don't pay attention to what Trump says. His words have so little connection to reality.


    by Michael Wolraich on Thu, 01/25/2018 - 10:18am

    What ! I  can't believe my President ?

    Say it ain't so, Joe.

     

     


    by Flavius on Thu, 01/25/2018 - 11:17am

    Small silver lining in the major cloud upon us is that Congress may regularly start thinking that way too and get used to it, even if the president belongs to the majority party in Congress. Happens to be my opinion that the founders meant it to be that way....


    by artappraiser on Thu, 01/25/2018 - 4:25pm

    "White House"/Stephen Miller have adjusted to the boss' flip flop (or was it the other way around?), here's the latest plan (or is it just today's plan, tomorrow another?):

    White House jumps back into Dreamer battle with citizenship offer

    The White House is hoping to woo Democrats by offering protection to undocumented immigrants in exchange for border wall funding — and sharp restrictions on family reunification.

    By Rachel Bade, Burgess Everett and Lorraine Woellert @ Politico.com Updated 01/25/2018 07:25 PM EST

    President Donald Trump on Monday will propose a pathway to citizenship for 1.8 million undocumented immigrants brought to the U.S. as children — a key concession to Democrats that he hopes will win their support for a massive border wall with Mexico.

    In a call with White House surrogates and Hill staffers Thursday afternoon, senior White House adviser Stephen Miller outlined the new framework, which also calls for dramatic restrictions on legal immigration as well as $25 billion for border security.

    Miller said the outline represented “a compromise position that we believe… will get 60 votes in the Senate” and “a framework that ultimately will lead to passage of a law.” Another senior administration official told POLITICO the White House hoped legislation fleshing out those principles would hit the Senate floor as early as the first week of February. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said in a statement that he hoped lawmakers "will look to this framework for guidance as they work towards an agreement."

    The proposal, however, could complicate ongoing negotiations between a bipartisan group of senators who have been meeting frequently to discuss their own accord on immigration. Indeed, Democrats blasted the framework Thursday night, even as it displeased some conservatives [....]


    by artappraiser on Thu, 01/25/2018 - 7:53pm

    and yes, negotiations are becoming "complicated", from this afternoon @ Politico:

    Rubio rejects bipartisan immigration gang 01/25/2018 12:17 PM EST

    The Florida Republican is steering clear of bipartisan Senate talks to protect Dreamers — and pushing a more conservative approach.

    So I am wondering if the "White House" plan is still being seen as "Grahamnesty" over at Breitbart, so I go over there and see the headline, the once dear leader gets full blame, it's "Don's Amnesty Bonanza":

    by artappraiser on Thu, 01/25/2018 - 8:09pm

    Dreamers and Medicaid/CHIP moochers to build the BEAUTIFUL WALL! Save billions! DEMs hate the troops and love LG washing machines MAGA @RealDonaldTrump


    by NCD on Thu, 01/25/2018 - 9:55pm

    oh yeah? Just so happens I bought a Maytag during the Obama years (btw I'm not happy with the way the finish has discolored and how it has started to make that strange clicking noise)


    by artappraiser on Thu, 01/25/2018 - 11:12pm

    Early IoT - it's trying to communicate with you.

    BTW - notice that first & last letters of Maytag are MAGA? Coincidence? assuredly not.


    by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 01/25/2018 - 11:22pm

    Episode # 213 in the continuing saga, straw man tactics this time, must be maddening to deal with him on this, be interesting to see how they handle it now:

    Trump Pressures Democrats for a Deal on Immigration

    By THOMAS KAPLAN and PETER BAKER @ NYTimes.com, 31 minutes ago

    In a speech and an early morning Twitter post, Mr. Trump faulted the opposition for not compromising to protect younger undocumented immigrants.


    by artappraiser on Thu, 02/01/2018 - 3:56pm

    Speaking of straw man tactics ... I'm always annoyed by how mega some things become while others are basically ignored.  While "Friday night dumps" aren't easily dismissed anymore, anything not tweeted seems to be.


    by barefooted on Thu, 02/01/2018 - 4:15pm

    Yes I am thinking about the troll thing again too. Great minds think alike!  Here's where it's complex: in the old pre-Trump days, politicians purposefully took advantage, it really was the media's fault, pandering to "clicks", everyone ignores the important stories going on, i.e., while everyone's arguing about Monica and Bill, let's slip this thing and that thing through, like your link.  But they can't really be safe doing that with Trump,because no one can be sure where he will drag the attention next. He often doesn't have a true political agenda, it's all about selling the Trump persona.


    by artappraiser on Thu, 02/01/2018 - 4:25pm

    And while it all may be grand foil for Democrats to make a meal out of, it's truly depressing that the boring stuff gets thrown away like yesterday's lunch until and unless Trump makes a point of it.  Which means in a weird way that he really does control the news.


    by barefooted on Thu, 02/01/2018 - 4:37pm

    For today he's kidnapping the Dreamers from the Dems:

    Via pool pic.twitter.com/dJ1GkmIuZY

    — Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) February 2, 2018

    by artappraiser on Fri, 02/02/2018 - 5:22pm

    McCain, Coons to introduce new immigration bill that omits wall funding: WSJ report

    By Julia Manchester @ TheHill.com- 02/04/18 07:07 PM EST, my underlining

    Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Christopher Coons (D-Del.) will introduce immigration legislation on Monday in an effort to reach a budget deal before the federal government's current funding runs out on Friday, The Wall Street Journal reported.

    The bipartisan piece of legislation provides recipients of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, commonly known as "Dreamers," an opportunity for citizenship while ordering a study to figure out what border security measures are needed, according to the Journal.

    Senate aides told the Journal that the plan would provide people who have resided in the U.S. since Dec. 31, 2013, with legal status and a path to citizenship. 

    The Journal reported that the legislation is similar to House legislation introduced by Reps. Will Hurd (R-Texas) and Pete Aguilar(D-Calif.).

    “It’s time we end the gridlock so we can quickly move on to completing a long-term budget agreement that provides our men and women in uniform the support they deserve,” McCain said in a statement to the Journal on Sunday [.....]


    by artappraiser on Mon, 02/05/2018 - 4:40am