By Charlie Cook @ CookPolitical.com, Nov. 24
[...] those expecting President-elect Joe Biden to preside over what amounts to a third, nonconsecutive Obama term are likely to be sadly disappointed. As vice president, Biden pretty much kept his differences with President Obama out of the public view, as is appropriate, but anyone who thinks that Biden will be anything but his own man hasn’t watched him closely. During the campaign, President Trump and his allies argued that if elected, Biden would just be a figurehead, that the likes of Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and the “Squad” would actually be running the administration. Those folks are mistaken as well.
For Biden, winning the presidency has been the Holy Grail. He’s tried twice before, making the third time a charm. Putting Biden’s career in elective office in perspective, when he was first elected to the Senate in 1972, Barack Obama was 11 years old. When Mitch McConnell was first elected to the Senate, Biden had been there for 12 years. There are quite a few House members who were born after Biden had been reelected to the Senate once or twice.
Given that he’s observed plenty of right and wrong up close by Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bush Sr., Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Obama, and now Trump, he has developed some pretty firm ideas of what should be done—and how. If ever an incoming president were immune to the effects of an abbreviated transition, one with little or no cooperation from his predecessor, it would be Biden. It will be a nuisance and make things a bit rougher, but this is not likely to be insurmountable.
My wife calls me a pathological optimist, but my view is that the stars may be lining up just right for a bit of stability for the next two or four years, coming after a pretty tumultuous four years. Even if Republicans can hold onto one or both of their Georgia Senate seats in the Jan. 5 special elections—which might actually be just a 50-50 proposition—it would give them only a bare Senate majority, nothing close to “control” of the chamber. And while Democrats will have a House majority, it will be the narrowest since World War II. Neither party will be able to pass heavily partisan or ideological legislation. Sure, those on the Far Left and the Far Right can play the role of saboteurs, but anything more exotic than lowest-common-denominator policy proposals is not likely to get past both chambers [....]