MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
Order today at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop
MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE by Michael Wolraich Order today at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop |
A detailed look at the voters with the numbers to decide the 2020 Democratic nominee.
Comments
Excerpts from the accompanying text
This along with a useful color-coded state map illustration (that isn't in copy-able form) titled Where the rest of the Democratic Party lives/Moderates, passive liberals and disengaged voters as a share of all Democrats
by artappraiser on Wed, 04/10/2019 - 10:54pm
As Paul Coats noted in his interview, many blacks agreed wholeheartedly with Bill Cosby's 2004 Pound Cake Speech - which ironically or not helped lead to his downfall - and while there were justifiable objections that some of his statistics were distorted, they weren't that distorted in 1995, just 9 years before, and some of the most self-destructive behavior such as single parenting was still being applauded in 2004 - "you go, girl" empowerment stuff - I remember researching it, including the # of households with single parents and the loss of control & buying power and risk for bankruptcy & homelessness that entailed. But on the internet, it was just that awful thing he'd said, blaming the victim - yet many agreed in private, just like many supported the 199x Crime Bill that both put many blacks in jail but also arguably helped clean up the streets and housing projects (yeah, some will blame it solely on lead paint, etc. - and yeah, i would have decriminalized pot at the same time, that was a dumb wedge to use). But social media consensus drives our dialogue, not what any silent majority might think. Which is also why Bernie's caucus wins carried so much weight - his fans were driving the "current wisdom" memes while most people were going about their business not caught up in all the ruckus.
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 04/11/2019 - 8:33am
The is urban myth that high incarceration rates led to decreased crime. The public in 1994 wanted action taken on crime, but crimes rates were already decreasing.
In hindsight, the 1994 bill destroyed communities
https://www.npr.org/2014/09/12/347736999/20-years-later-major-crime-bill-viewed-as-terrible-mistake
Link to the study noted above noting the disconnect between incarceration and crime rates.
http://www.vtlex.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/18613.pdf
by rmrd0000 on Thu, 04/11/2019 - 9:41am
The communities were already destroyed - this was 1 of several efforts to try to salvage them.
Yes, locking up murderers and other types of "super-predators" can help improve the ambiance -
but certainly there's much more: creating opportunity, education, normal social functions, baseline amenities,
safe & effective transportation and other infrastructure and services.
Harlem of the 30's had its problems - drugs and crime and what-not - but it also had its culture.
Societies are multi-faceted.
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 04/11/2019 - 9:50am
Again, crime was decreasing before the crime bill was created.
The lack of economic incentives was why many blacks opposed the crime bill. The NAACP thought the bill was an abomination. Because of fears of something worse being offered if the crime bill failed, a majority of the Congressional Black Caucus.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/13/opinion/did-blacks-really-endorse-the-1994-crime-bill.html
The Harlem that I see is vibrant and has a thriving culture. In fact, I’ve been invited to a wine and food festival in Harlem in May.
Harlem played a major role in ending “Stop & Frisk”.
by rmrd0000 on Thu, 04/11/2019 - 12:05pm
Try this as an exercise - find the saddleback in this graph. What are the two peak years surrounding it (actually 3 looking at '74 & '81, or 4 including '92 & '94). Now if the September 1994 crime bill hadn't passed, would there be a 5th peak? Well, we rightly don't know - there's still quite a bit of debate over how much effect 100,000 more cops and change in police strategies had. Even the incarceration & sentencing are debated - while true the federal law only affected federal crimes & prisons, it influenced the policy of states (including the rise of "Truth in Sentencing" laws that put an 85% minimum time served on sentences).
When the Crime Bill was proposed in 1993, Violent Crime was at an all time high (I assume the concern was not about the decreasing level of shoplifting). Now presumably nationwide police weren't sitting around waiting for the crime bill to pass to do something - they were likely taking actions that were part of the Crime Bill and some that weren't.
And while this debate 3 years ago centered around the "superpredators", lost in it was the discussion about the victims - primarily black youth:
And one reason why 100,000 cops could make a difference is that these killings almost 3x as likely in the city as elsewhere:
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 04/11/2019 - 12:37pm
Violent crime peaked in 1991. 1991 was before the crime bill passed. You make a common mistake that the crime bill was the biggest factor in decreasing crime. People who actually analyze the data in detail disagree with you.
https://www.themarshallproject.org/2016/04/11/bill-clinton-black-lives-and-the-myths-of-the-1994-crime-billhttps://www.nap.edu/read/18613/chapter/7
I cite different sources to prove at multiple centers reach the same conclusion
Link to the study cited in the article
https://www.nap.edu/read/18613/chapter/7
by rmrd0000 on Thu, 04/11/2019 - 2:12pm
The old "who you gonna believe, not me? Nor your lying eyes? Did the murder rate go up from '92 to '93 in the chart? When did violent crime peak in the chart?
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 04/11/2019 - 2:32pm
I provided the analysis done by people who study the issue. The first link I gave included a Clinton era DOJ official
https://www.npr.org/2014/09/12/347736999/20-years-later-major-crime-bill-viewed-as-terrible-mistake
by rmrd0000 on Thu, 04/11/2019 - 2:49pm
What does any of that have to do with reading a graph?
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 04/11/2019 - 3:16pm
Sigh. The graph says that crime went down. Experts say that incarceration was not the big factor in the decrease in crime. You want to say that there is cause and effect because of incarceration. Multiple studies suggest that is not the case.
Think of it like “Stop and Frisk”. The argument for the program was that it decreased crime. Graphs showed that crime was decreased. Stop and Frisk abused civil rights, so the program was ended. Crime did not go up or stay the same. Crime went down.
https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/01/new-york-city-stop-and-frisk-crime-decline-conservatives-wrong/
The data for cause and effect is lacking for a decrease in crime with the 1994 crime bill and “Stop and Frisk”.
by rmrd0000 on Thu, 04/11/2019 - 3:41pm
Where did I claim incarceration was the biggest or only factor for the crime rate going down? Answer: I didn't. I said there was lots of outstanding debate : some experts say one thing, others say another.
The graphs say crime went down except the year it went up again, which no coincidence is the year the Crime Bill was written and submitted. I've seen claims that crime started falling in 1980, but that's not what these graphs show. 1993 they were responding to an actual crisis, not a resolved problem. And the decreases from 1993 don't definitively prove or disprove that the measures they started that year had X % of credit for the decrease (certainly X would not be 100% in any case - complex problems usially have complex solutions)
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 04/11/2019 - 3:39pm
The experts have a consensus that the crime bill was not a major factor in the decrease in crime.
https://www.factcheck.org/2016/04/bill-clinton-and-the-1994-crime-bill/
Pound cakes, stop and frisk, etc. are minor factors.
The truth is that we don’t know why crime is decreasing. We do know policing is not a major factor. Crime has even decreased despite economic stress. The graphs would look essentially the same if we took the crime bill out of the picture.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/04/what-caused-the-crime-decline/477408/
The crime bill was all about encouraging incarceration. That was the impact on policing in cities.
BTW: When you look at a graph involving biologic oscillators (humans). you will see things fall above and below the mean. You can do least squares to get a rough look at the trend. The violent crime trend has been downward. There will be some variations away from a straight line.
Edit to add:
Like climate change, you may find naysayers who are adamant that their outlier view is correct..
by rmrd0000 on Thu, 04/11/2019 - 5:04pm
While the discussion between you and Peracles on what the facts are about reduction in crime is interesting, when it comes to voters voting on basic security of life and limb, facts don't really cut it. (Or else we'd have a two-state solution in Israel/Palestine long ago.) The point: how many black church ladies and former Black Panthers, etc., are out there that agree with Trump and/or Cosby and various conservative why pipple and not with white liberals, that what black kids these days need is a metaphorical whup upside their head.
I happen to suspect many more blacks agree with this p.o.v. than will say it because it's politically incorrect within their culture. Hence the huge support for the Clintons with little kvetching from the black community until perhaps growing a little with suspicion of Hillary in 2016. I've only seen far left complain about their whole "tough on crime" DLC program until recently.
Same for getting tougher on welfare while expanding earned income credit, I think that was widely popular because a significant number of blacks agreed that was the way to go, that traditional welfare was actually a killer of the culture, ala Daniel Patrick Moynihan study. Bill Clinton was extremely popular with the black church crowd in particular. More conservative in many ways than elite white liberals or even basic liberals in DNC.
Security is the #1 reason for grouping into civilizations and forming governments. It's the main thing. Without it you've got nothing. People do get irrational and emotional about it, the cause and how to fix. Many don't care about graphics and charts and statistics from "the man," who has lied to them so many other times. They judge by whether they feel safe and what makes them feel safe, from the personal experience of what works.
by artappraiser on Thu, 04/11/2019 - 7:22pm
Back on topic? How dare you.
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 04/11/2019 - 10:48pm
The political diversity in the black community is well documented. Because the Republicans are so racist, the Democrats win the majority of black votes.
The 10% number is close to the 8% of the black vote Trump received. Republicans can’t let go of the racism and the voter suppression. Democrats reap the benefits of Republicans alienating black voters.
Facts do cut it. Outreach to black communities is likely to get you a group of voters with a roughly 90% likelihood of voting for the Democrat. Perry Bacon Jr, had a good review at 538
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-diversity-of-black-political-views/
There was a great deal of kvetching about Hillary in the black community.The black community chose Obama over Hillary in 2008. Black turnout for Hillary in 2016 was lower than expected. This may have been impacted by voter fraud, but the issue of super-predators did come up. It wasn’t just the elites talking about the crime bill. Remember, BlackLivesMatter confronted Hillary in 2016.
by rmrd0000 on Fri, 04/12/2019 - 12:42am
yes how Coates explains that whole thing is one part of what I found fascinating about the interview. I have paid a lot of attention to the whole crime/inner cities issue and such since the 1970's. Been there, done that with all the stats and stuff during the Reagan/Clinton years, pre-internet would devour anything I could find. To have him explain it, though, the way he did, the cultural aspect, was really clarifying! To have this come from someone with such extreme lefty passions made it all the more credible.
Did you catch at the beginning they talk about an Edwin that was a Black Panther had become a Trump fan? I wanted to here more about that!
I recognized right away that the interview suggested your arguments about Hillary's Super Predator comment were correct. That it was actually a targeted to get black votes in crucial areas for a primary win, just the opposite of white lefty liberal "wisdom". The only thing was she was unfortunately running against a guy with a skin color that no targeting like that could beat, who also didn't give off a "coddle miscreants" vibe. I think it's a very important point that blacks from black majority communities who vote regularly tend to be conservative about many things.And would have been amen-ing to Cosby's infamous speeches. I got bias confirmation of that from getting friendly with more than one "black church lady" type over the years. To the point of wondering what they think about Cosby now!
by artappraiser on Thu, 04/11/2019 - 2:07pm
The “Pound Cake” speech was filled with Fox News level inaccuracies.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/adamserwer/bill-cosby-pound-for-pound#.oaAvBVWdo
by rmrd0000 on Thu, 04/11/2019 - 2:23pm
Did I not address some of that? Like various trends 8-9 years before oftostayen stay "current" in our human thinking. And yet stealin cigars in a cinvenience store isn't exactly survival behavior, even if not poundcake.
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 04/11/2019 - 2:36pm
Cosby needed to have his facts straight.
by rmrd0000 on Thu, 04/11/2019 - 2:44pm
Yeah, I recognized the Hillary thing, esp among black women, but i'm not absurd - voting skin color was the least risk - *something* good would come out no matter what, even if he'd lost in November. Where it got absurd were claims he'd be a better advocate for women. Oh well, elections are silly season w stickers pasted over.
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 04/11/2019 - 2:42pm
there was a little demonstration as regards "brothas killing brothas" in the da Bronx today
by artappraiser on Sun, 04/14/2019 - 9:20pm
This embedded link is interesting, a post election NYTimes piece I missed about the entire electorate:
NEWS ANALYSIS These Americans Are Done With Politics
The Exhausted Majority needs a break.
By Sabrina Tavernise @ NYTimes.com, Nov. 17, 2018
by artappraiser on Wed, 04/10/2019 - 11:04pm
I took a longer look at the "Hidden Tribes" project mentioned in the above and I like what they are doing, it is a Pew type thing but I think they are doing it much better. They have simplified profiles of each political tribe which they created from studying lengthy questionnaires here on this page, with "Main Concerns" of each group and bullet points on the memes they seem to agree on the most, as opposed to the rest of the public. I have copied the groups and percentages and the single quote they use as a lede for each tribe. I like the wide spread, I believe this is far more accurate about our country than the simplistic Repub. vs. Dem. red vs. blue or liberal vs. conservative etc.:
Percent of Americans who are
After I came out of reading the descriptions, I felt it very wise of them not to even get into the parties! Because what I get from it is that: the discord is partly because the parties don't fit the political tribes that well! Big tent is not working. Might be the case in that as tribes grow ideologically via internet and leave behind old reasons for tribes, they will be smaller and smaller and big tent will just not work anymore at all.
by artappraiser on Fri, 04/12/2019 - 12:49am
So where does Trump get his 42%? It's one of the most politically amazing things I've witnessed, how solid that number is month after month, now year after year.
by PeraclesPlease on Fri, 04/12/2019 - 2:40am
Trump likely gets significant chunks of the Disengaged and Moderates
by rmrd0000 on Fri, 04/12/2019 - 10:27am
Who are they? Get to know your fellow citizens..!
Since hating the Gummint has become the central organizing principle of Republican Party and the Conservative Movement, it is no wonder that coalition which they created would be composed of... Driftglass
by NCD on Fri, 04/12/2019 - 12:24pm
Still, there are some good people somewhere in there.
by rmrd0000 on Fri, 04/12/2019 - 1:03pm
Yes, yet almost every Republican I've ever run into hates government to a varying extent, and we get the government only they deserve.
by NCD on Fri, 04/12/2019 - 1:36pm
Every Trump appointee has been trash. Each replacement has been worse than the original. Now we get Moore and Cain suggested for the Federal Reserve, The true Affirmative Action program is the Trump White House. The Republicans are tribalists. Everyone tows the line. The beauty of the Democrats is that organizing them is like herding cats. You get disagreements that have to be worked out. That is how a democracy is supposed to function. Tribes decide to work together.
by rmrd0000 on Fri, 04/12/2019 - 2:09pm
Exactly. Republicans are united under the Fuhrer. He can do no harm, until it hits their wallets, and even then they may stick around. Dems, no. Cats, with policy galore! From nyt:
“The Democrats will issue a 61-page white paper that nobody in their right mind will pass on to their friends,” she added. “He uses a one-sentence slogan, and his voters (believe it) feel emboldened to share it, pass it on.”
by NCD on Fri, 04/12/2019 - 3:04pm
Republicans destroyed the economy of the state of Kansas, poisoned a city in Michigan, wrecked the education system in Michigan and Republican voters want more of the same. They get reinforced by right wing media. They are the 40%
Democrats have to appeal to the 60%. I think that the Presidency can be won in 2020 because a significant chunk of that 60% thinks Trump is a liar, a crook, and a racist. They look at their tax results and the prospect of losing health care and they are pissed.
by rmrd0000 on Fri, 04/12/2019 - 3:23pm
Obama and Hillary are Centrist Democrats who won their primary races. Sanders faces a challenge in being selected in 2020.
by rmrd0000 on Thu, 04/11/2019 - 7:58am
Charles Blow's NYTimes column yesterday was interesting on the small yet significant percentages of minority groups who agree with some or most of Trump's policies and/or voted for him in 2016, and how he sees Trump playing that, and how his campaign might try to use it to win in 2020. I.E. "The Wall" , improvement in black unemployment...etc.:
Trump’s Other Base
In preparation for 2020, the president is focused on the minority vote.
Excerpt to give an idea:
by artappraiser on Thu, 04/11/2019 - 7:02pm
by artappraiser on Fri, 04/12/2019 - 1:04am