Five Blue States Could Determine Who Controls The House In 2018

By artappraiser on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 10:12am |

By Harry Enten @ FiveThirtyEight.com, Feb. 1

[....] while California, Illinois, New Jersey, New York and Virginia account for only a small percentage of Republican-held seats overall, they are home to a disproportionate share of vulnerable Republicans. According to the Cook Political Report, these five states are home to 38 percent of all the Republican-held seats that are truly in play in 2018.1 [....]

[....] The most interesting thing about these states, though, is the total number of Republican seats that are rated as at least somewhat vulnerable.2 If you add them all up, a total of 25 Republican seats in these five populous Clinton states could flip to the Democrats. That’s one more seat than Democrats need to gain a majority. In other words, they could take back the House without flipping a single seat in a state that Trump came close to winning in 2016.

Now, Democrats are probably not going to win a House majority based solely on heavily populated blue states. The competitive districts in these Clinton states aren’t all alike. Some are well-educated, like Virginia’s 10th Congressional District. Others are best described as working-class, like New York’s 22nd District. Some are whiter than the nation as a whole, like New Jersey’s 11th; others are majority non-white, like California’s 39th. The national political environment — what turnout looks like in November, and which groups Democrats over- or underperform with — will therefore manifest itself differently in each of these districts [.....]

URL:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/five-blue-states-could-determine-who-controls-the-house-in-2018/

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Texas Dislikes Trump, But That Doesn’t Mean It Will Go Blue In 2018

By Harry Enten @ FiveThirtyEight.com, Feb. 2

[....] Trump’s net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating) in ruby-red Texas (-15 percentage points) was essentially the same as his net approval rating nationally (-18 points). Take these numbers at face value and it’s difficult not to conclude that Ted Cruz, the Republican senator from the Lone Star State who is up for re-election this year, could be in a surprising amount of trouble against his Democratic challenger, Beto O’Rourke.

But should we take these figures at face value? It’s possible that O’Rourke and Cruz may end up in a close race, but I’d be cautious about using the Gallup numbers to argue that Cruz might lose. The reason is simple: The group of people Gallup is polling is the entire adult population, rather than registered or likely voters. And in Texas, there’s a big partisan gap between the adult population and the electorate.

Nationally, voters, as a group, typically lean a bit more Republican than the adult population.1 But Texas is a special case: The electorate tends to be way more GOP-leaning than adults overall are [.....]

by artappraiser on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 10:16am

How do Democrats win white working class voters? Other ethnic working class voters seem to trend Democratic.

by rmrd0000 on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 10:34am

It's not always the case that they have to in every Congressional district! I.E. it might be middle class suburban voters who tend to prefer Republicans that they have to get.

You have to think differently than the national races or statewide races. It's apples and oranges when you get to Congressional races. Not every Dem running for Congress has to be concerned about white working class! Only if there's a lot of them in their district! This is why big tent messaging is a problem: this country is basically gerrymandered into separate little countries. They are all different. Converse is also true: some may be all minorities, some may have hardly any. Surely you know this?

But the difference nowadays is the internet allows for micro-targeting, where you could get the input of what people wanted from a Rep and then tailor your campaign to it. And that sort of thing is what Peracles post was about. Obama's team set up a new paradigm, started an organization where it wasn't just Dem loyalists, with internet savvy, so that micro-targeting could have continued from that base. And it was people energized by Obama, but with quite a few of them disillusioned by the two parties. That's why they kept it separate from the Dem party, because of those people disillusioned by the Dem party., they tarred Hillary in 2008 as the party candidate and Obama as "new and different." And that wasn't developed past Obama, it was just lost.

An example of micro-targeting that doesn't involve "white working class" would be upper middle class people who live in high property tax areas, high property value, high mortgage areas, who usually vote Republican, who just got royally screwed by the GOP tax bill. I.E.: New Jersey Tony Soprano neighborhoods, Staten Island neighborhoods, mostly go GOP, few minorities to begin with, not much help to turn them out. Or the minorities are Republican leaning blacks and Latinos because they have money

by artappraiser on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 11:50am

Nationally, Democrats do not win the white vote. Obama did not win the majority of the white vote either time. neither did Bill Clinton by the way. Obama’s organization did not win over the majority of white voters. Obama and Bill Clinton got the same percent of the white vote. What message do whites need to hear? I’m asking because I don’t see a solution.

by rmrd0000 on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 12:06pm

That's 2020, has little to do with 2018. Apples and oranges.

The way this country is changing and the way Cambridge Analytica and the Russians "micro-targeting" helped Trump win, I don't even see any reason to discuss it. To me both you and Hal are really always arguing about the last election, not the future.

Heck, just by virtue of tons more millennials registered to vote by 2020, the demographics issues are going to change a lot. (Not to mention: older white working class not too healthy!) I know, I've seen the link you have produced that they vote the same as their parents. I don't think things are going to stay that way after Trump, because of Trump.

Further, long term, maybe if there were more Dems holding local offices for a longer time, things would get re-gerrymandered so that old white working class people aren't so important nationally.

by artappraiser on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 12:32pm

Before there was focus on white working class rust belt, there was the more classic "city mice" vs. "country mice" which is really the basis of the trend of xenophobic voting worldwide and is also very much behind national results here. Even that may be about to change as more people in this country move about a lot and work remotely and there are fewer and fewer 9-5, 5 day a week jobs. Or it could get worse if more go to big urban areas and rural empties out further. People in rural areas tend to not to trust strangers, just the way it is. On a national level, our districting gives a lot of power to rural areas.

by artappraiser on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 12:43pm

While Obama, and Clinton, didn't get a majority of white votes nationally the majority of the votes they got were white. There are some states where they won a majority of the white voters. So clearly they both had a message whites voted for. Getting 95% of an ethnic group that is only 12% of the population isn't alone what it takes to win any election.

by ocean-kat on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 12:44pm

Great link, and holy smokes, I had no idea on California! Overall now 39% Hispanic, 38% white, 15% Asian and only 5% black! Explains a lot on the immigration issue in the west in general. Our country really is changing just by virtue of that state alone being the 6th largest economy in the world.

by artappraiser on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 2:15pm

Yes, it's an informative link. California is the big one but there are similar blue or purple states like Colorado with 4% black and 19% Hispanic. Getting out the black vote in Colorado would be negligible with only 4% of the population. rmrd with his focus on the national black vote is missing these regional demographics. In my mind they are more important as I'd rather control the senate than the presidency if I had to chose just one.

by ocean-kat on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 2:37pm

I just did a tick selection for "two or more races" and got a few surprises there, too.

by artappraiser on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 2:48pm

hey oceankat, just ran across this fascinating NYT article, forget about those numbers being accurate for New Mexicans and surrounding area denizens who have heritage there before the mid 19th century. What they tell the census is probably not accurate, most of them don't know what they really are, probably mixed race Spanish and various Native American tribes because of such a long tradition of slavery until 1867:

Indian Slavery Once Thrived in New Mexico. Latinos Are Finding Family Ties to It. By Simon Romero, Jan. 28

it's incredibly complex, the Spanish families took various Native Americans for slaves for centuries, the Comanche starting imitating them and taking slaves too, and then there's the Mexican indigenous and non-indigenous and Anglos mixing in. The U.S. basically didn't realize the slavery situation was going on in the territory until after the Civil War was over, WTF?

The trade endured even decades after the Mexican-American War, when the United States took control of much of the Southwest in the 1840s.

Seeking to strengthen the 13th Amendment, which abolished slavery in 1865, Congress passed the Peonage Act of 1867 after learning of propertied New Mexicans owning hundreds and perhaps thousands of Indian slaves, mainly Navajo women and children. But scholars say the measure, which specifically targeted New Mexico, did little for many slaves in the territory

Just goes to show you how much skin color tells you. The article says DNA tests aren't even that helpful. because of the complexity of Native tribes in the area and intermingling with those outside

In this context, the census categories of "Hispanic" and "Native American" are. nonsensical. And the number for "two or more races" should be way higher than 1%.

Pointing to the breadth of the Southwest’s slave trade, some historians have also documented how Hispanic settlers were captured and enslaved by Native American traffickers, and sometimes went on to embrace the cultures of their Comanche, Pueblo or Navajo masters [....]

“There’s a conflation of race and tribe that’s infuriating, really,” said Ms. TallBear, a member of the Sisseton Wahpeton Oyate tribe of South Dakota who writes about tribal belonging and genetic testing. “I don’t think ancestry alone is sufficient to define someone as indigenous.”

You are what sub-culture your immediate ancestors have taught you that you are, I guess. Who made it the rule you have to listen to them? Just pick one if we feel so badly that we have to tribalize that way.

by artappraiser on Mon, 02/05/2018 - 8:08am

I identify as a gender fluid Berber Macaque. Sometimes when I look in the mirror I don't even recognize myself, other times I see two of me.

by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 02/05/2018 - 8:18am

gender fluid
the fashionable choice, ever up on the latest trends.

by artappraiser on Mon, 02/05/2018 - 8:38am

kids - they say the darnedest things...

by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 02/05/2018 - 9:56am

My question was why a majority of white working class voters support Republicans while other ethnic working group majorities support Democrats? That question impacts state and national races. What does the majority of the white working class need to hear from Democrats?

by rmrd0000 on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 3:15pm

You're the only one I know of who cares whether a candidate gets a majority of a certain class. Like blacks deserve a special award because 90ish percent vote democratic. You even made the ridiculous claim that white people should thank blacks for voting for democrats. If I said blacks should thank whites for voting for Obama since most of Obama's voters were white you'd call me a racist. But then, who cares, since you already have. Most people only care that their candidate gets enough votes from each class to win. So long as democrats have a message that resonates with enough white voters, and black voters, and Hispanic voters, to win no one cares whether a majority of each class votes for them or not. Since democrats have a more demographically diverse coalition we need votes from all the demographics.

by ocean-kat on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 3:46pm

I am noting a difference in voting pattern and asking why it exists. You refuse to directly address the question. Sanders and Perez did an outreach to white working class voters. What message should be delivered to white working class voters? Shouldn’t Democrats try to maximize the white vote? How do they attract white working class voters?

by rmrd0000 on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 4:21pm

You try to direct the conversation by mostly asking questions instead of addressing the points you're pretending to respond to. It's just another diversion tactic. Fuck your questions. I speak on the issues I want. I'm not your fucking pawn to be directed to discuss the issues you decide are important.

by ocean-kat on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 4:41pm

I didn’t think you wanted to address my question about why the white working class votes in a different pattern than other ethnic groups.

by rmrd0000 on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 4:57pm

I made it quite clear that I don't care what percent of whites or blacks or Hispanics or any other ethnic group votes for democrats. All I care about is that enough of each group votes for democrats so they win. You're the person who thinks that your little sub group that comprises 12% of the population should have it's ass kissed because about 90% vote democratic. Of course I have no desire to waste my time answering your unimportant boring question.

Once again I don't come here to be your puppet. I talk about the subjects that interest me.

by ocean-kat on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 5:44pm

Victory is easier if Democrats capture a larger percentage of the white vote. I merely ask how to mount a successful appeal. I am trying to answer how to attract a larger percentage.

by rmrd0000 on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 5:58pm

You ask because you're losing the argument and you want to change the subject. It has nothing to do with finding a way to making a successful appeal to white voters. If someone doesn't answer or comes up with an answer you can attack it gives you the opening you're looking for. Like a bad chess player that only thinks two moves ahead your plan is to push your agenda item. In this case that democrats can't get more white votes and need to suck up to the black voters. You see, I pay attention to the lines you push here.

by ocean-kat on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 10:03pm

Oh Jesus, don't you guys have something better to do? I thought *golf* was tedious.

by PeraclesPlease on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 10:54pm

I was always of the opinion that it was possible to only read the threads that interested you. For example I never read the haiku threads as I'm not much into poetry. I never felt the need to go onto the haiku threads and announce how tedious I found poetry. But I guess I was wrong. There's some sort of requirement that you read every post and every thread and voice your opinion on the quality. Is that because you're on the masthead?

by ocean-kat on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 11:09pm

Oh trust me, I read just a tiny % of these back-and-forths - just notice them filling up the Latest Comments column when I go to see if anything useful or interesting posted. I'm pretty sure I don't voice opinion on quality that often - usually too busy digging out articles people might like. Natter on.

by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 02/05/2018 - 3:04am

Well then I'm truly honored that you've included my comments in the tiny percent you read. As I'm sure a smart guy like you has figured out your opinion is the one I consider every time right before I click send. "Will Peracles like this?" is always the top thought in my mind. I'm feeling pretty good right now to be acknowledged and hoping to be noticed again in the future.

by ocean-kat on Mon, 02/05/2018 - 4:21am

Yes, that's right. Sorry, what was your name again? I'll be sure to pay you more attention - you might be one of those new young talents we're always looking for

by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 02/05/2018 - 8:08am

Here are articles that promote the idea of thanking black women voters

The Cut

https://www.thecut.com/2017/12/black-women-turnout-roy-moore-doug-jones.html

TPM

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/cafe/women-voters-aren-t-monolithic-terry-mcauliffe-can-thank-black-women-for-his-win

Newsweek

http://www.newsweek.com/thank-black-women-vote-office-political-activists-748619

New York Times

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/16/opinion/sunday/black-women-leadership.html

Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/11/09/the-democratic-party-owes-black-women-voters-a-big-thank-you/?utm_term=.e82879d6ff67

I read those articles and posted thank black voters on dagblog. There are others articles with an identical message that I left out.

by rmrd0000 on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 5:14pm

There is no way Obama could have won without white votes. In fact he got many more white votes than black votes. Without white voters Obama would have been crushed in a landslide of unprecedented proportions. It's likely that all dagblog posters, but one or two, voted for Obama. Don't you think you should post a heartfelt thank you to the white people at dagblog. To show your sincere appreciation for the white voters for Obama perhaps you should get some of your black friends to come here and thank us.

by ocean-kat on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 5:34pm

I think you should take your anger out on the authors of the linked articles, they make the same point and have far wider distribution than I possess.

by rmrd0000 on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 5:52pm

I'm discussing issues with the people who post here. If any of those authors post here I'll have a discussion with them. No matter how stupid or ignorant a person's opinions are he can find someone on the internet who wrote an article that agrees with him. That's something you have proved over and over again here.

by ocean-kat on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 6:09pm

You are quick to namecall, but feign outrage when the favor is returned.

Edit to add:

Outside of dagblog, activists are working to do outreach in the black community to GOTV in 2018 and 2020

There are also battles against the snipe hunt supported by voter ID.

Im feeling pretty good.

by rmrd0000 on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 6:25pm

Thanking them does no good - women don't appreciate gratitude. Give 'em coupons instead - women like cutting things up - especially men. Oddly enough it makes them more loyal - original loyalty program, I'd say...

by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 02/05/2018 - 8:12am

lucky for you that you ID'd as gender fluid elsewhere on this thread, should a swarm of irony-impaired 4th wave feminists find this comment by googling

by artappraiser on Mon, 02/05/2018 - 10:30am

They're probably non-intersectional feminists basking in their white privilege, no? or maybe not.

by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 02/05/2018 - 12:02pm

The short version and then I am going to return to the topic of this thread.

. It's the rust belt underemployed underclass that has been the problem for the Dems for decades, not the southern strategy, that's different. The latter doesn't really apply any more, especially since the "new south" where blacks are returning, etc.

The Reagan Dems. Reagan picked them off, turned them from Dem to Republican, partly by stoking resentment of generations of blacks on welfare and other things. But were never 100% racist, they just resented welfare black culture. Proof: Jesse Jackson pandered to them. and got some votes. Obama pandered to them and got some votes

What do they want: make america great again like Trump lied about. Jobs jobs jobs and playing footsie like you're going to be protectionist on trade, when no politician in their right mind think that's the right thing to do. Look up Pitchfork Pat Buchanan. Look up in 2008 where Obama and Hillary camps viciously fought over who said what about trade policy in Pennsylvania. Because: those voters are real important swings!

Bernie and Hal on the other hand are socialist leaning and dream of "workers unite you have nothing to lose but your chains," starting with those most longest disgruntled rust belters before they all succumb to opoid addiction while waiting for the factories to come back, they plan to move on to all the people of all colors that seemed to be simpatico with "Occupy Wall Street'." They will next go after the shopping mall galls who work at The Limited now and have dreams of work in the American fashion industry, black, white and inbetween. The have a different version of MAGA, but make no mistake it's still a MAGA vision. They are dreaming about the past. Just like Steve Bannon. This is where he dreams about making a coalition with far left protectionists sometimes. You're black and you want protectionism and to make America great again without growing the government? They'll welcome your participation. This is where Bannonism breaks with Bernie-ism: big government vs. private sector.

What's labeled "the white working class" i.e. Reagan Rust Belt and Appalachian Dems is disappearing very soon. A lot of them are now getting by for generations on disability and Medicaid, they basically became the black welfare recipients they once hated. I don't understand your obsession with it. Even Bannon/Breitbart are not one and same with white supremacists, they just used that group to add to their coalition numbers and then they toss them away when they get too controversial.

All of this does not mean that 1/3 of the country will not remain very conservative idiots, they will just gain new adherents among millennial libertarians. I am constantly shocked that you are shocked that 1/3 of the country will give approval to Trump, those 1/3 nuts were always there. Always. They are a mixture of classes and special interests. They even include a few blacks, because they are business persons or evangelicals, they even include a few Catholics because of abortion.

Nothing explains the latter better than the Fox and Friends opening skit last night on SNL with guest Louis Farrahkan on the Deep State FBI.

by artappraiser on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 5:13pm

Thanks for addressing the question. The 1/3 number is not a majority. If the number was only 1/3, Democrats would be in control.

by rmrd0000 on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 5:18pm

As far as the political evangelical "Christians" of the former Confederate States of America goes, their support of race baiting Republicans has it's roots in the American slave trade where whites had to repeatedly violate the basic tenants of Christianity and civil society social norms to sustain the often immense profits of their perverse system.

Social reformers of the time observed it led to a moral structure that sanctioned a white man to practice any immoral practice from Monday morning through Saturday night as long as they were in the pew Sunday morning.

by NCD on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 3:36pm

The Evangelicals embarrassed themselves during the Jim Crow era by siding with the white supremacists. They embarrass themselves today by shilling for Trump. The Baptist and the Methodist churches split over the issue of slavery. We have Baptists and Southern Baptists. The Methodist church is now the United Methodist church. Churches not living up to their moral obligations is noting new.

by rmrd0000 on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 4:32pm

I know you know the Southern Strategy has not been the main problem for Dems for quite some time, as they wrote those votes off and went for others. No, the most recent problem for them was the rust belt and Applachian "Reagan Dems." And I also think you know that a signifcant number of members of that demographic of swings were quite willing to vote for someone with black skin if he said what they wanted to hear, more than once. Cause voting for like, an rich corporate bigwig Mormon was just a bridge too far into non-working class land.

And it's not the future, anyhow! It's history! Over! Old generation dying. Those refusing to give up: opoid addicts on welfare. Hyping race and evangelical troglodytes as the enemy when that enemy is dying does nothing except prolong the artificial polarization.

Can't you see the microtargeting upon us? Time to move on, stop feeding the trolls. Trump with his approval of only the trolls is a gift. Wasn't most of the country aghast at Charlottesville? Did Alabama not just refuse Roy Moore and white Republican women there turn #metoo? Ye olde Christian coalition is dying too, fast. Time to stop beating dead horses.

Look at this, this is the type of thing Dems should be looking at: ‘Bitcoin is my potential pension’: What’s driving people in Kentucky to join the craze. They don't want more work, they'd rather be capitalists. Here's the millennial selling them all on it, he dreads the Boomers retiring and draining his generation dry:

In Louisville, for those who believe in bitcoin, Melin, 22, is one of the most important guides. “A visionary,” Knight called him. “Not afraid to step into the unknown.”

Three years earlier, Melin had been attending Indiana University Southeast, commuting from his mother’s house. He could not shake the feeling that he was paying for something that was not worthwhile. He was learning more from economics podcasts than he was from his classes.

So he dropped out and pulled the remaining $22,000 from an education fund his mother had set up for him. He invested in cryptocurrency. For a while, he was a college dropout working at a casino buffet, driving a $500 car and sleeping on a living room floor. But in 2017, he made $770,000, money he used to buy a three-bedroom house, a pickup truck and a cat.

Melin was not necessarily looking to strike it rich. He was looking, he said, for an alternative to the global economic system. He had started to become suspicious of that system during the 2008 financial crisis, when his mother lost her job as a computer programmer. Even as the United States pulled out of the depths, Melin saw signs that the world had not learned its lessons. He read about countries such as China over-borrowing and overspending, “building cities the size of Louisville that are empty.” He read about the growing U.S. deficit and felt that politicians could not solve the problem. He was especially bothered by the growing burden of baby boomers on Social Security programs.

“I almost blame the older generation,” he said. “I see these unsustainable programs. I’m going to be these people’s slaves for the rest of my life.”

by artappraiser on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 5:36pm

p.s. I really do suspect a lot of demographics that pollsters focus on could start melting away by 2020, what will take its place is things likes the "retired boomers are sucking the rest of us dry" demographic. But it will be split, the "millennials still sucking our parents dry, so we want the government to provide home care for them so we can travel" will be on the other side. Soccer moms and tiger moms? All in nursing homes because their children can't stand to be around them anymore. But someone's got to pay the Medicaid bill.so that they don't have to sell the family homestead, they need a travel base.

by artappraiser on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 6:12pm

Nunes challenger seizes on FBI memo uproar

The California district is a long shot for Democrats, but the House Intelligence chairman is giving his adversaries hope.

By Carla Marinucci and David Siders @ Politico.com, 02/03/2018 02:05 PM EST

Lots of things sound a little like the Alabama case here. Gather up all the Republicans mad at Trump and/or Nunes and get out the Latino vote, etc. On this one, you also have the Swamp thing:

“While he’s engaged in all those antics in Washington, people here are struggling,’’ Janz said. “I was with a group of farmers last week — Republicans — who told me they’re sick of it … They are worried about issues like water, and they can’t get a meeting with him. He hasn’t done a town hall meeting here since 2010. … He hasn’t done squat for this district.”

It's an interesting case to think about in context of a lot of things. Precisely because Nunes has national attention.

It sounds like Janz would have to run pretty conservative on policy. Sounds like the kind of CA district where everyone hates the "looney liberal" reputation of their state, so endorsements from Pelosi and Hollywood liberals hurt more than help. But one important thing to note is how the district went more heavily for Romney than for Trump. It's more like a GOP challenger could do it. There's a segment of the Republican vote that either voted for Hillary or stayed home.

But Nunes has tons more money already because he has national support from Trump fans and Deep State conspiracy types. So any challenger still has a tough row to hoe. A Dem challenger has to be conservative and, if he gets money and support from liberals, has to try to hide that.

I am thinking never-Trumper Romney running for Senate and getting a lot of media attention on what he says would help conservative Dems wins races like this?

by artappraiser on Sun, 02/04/2018 - 12:04pm

The team at FiveThirtyEight.com had a chat on topic on Thursday because The Democratic advantage over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot is down to less than 6 percentage points, the transcript is here:

What Happened To The Democratic Wave? The Abnormal Is Actually Normal

by artappraiser on Mon, 02/05/2018 - 3:14am

They've got us supporting illegal immigrants over Americans, their cimfirt zone. We should try to understand what actual policies Indivisible and Pod Save America are pushing now, as they're largely speaking for us.

It's a question when Russian collusion and money laundering, including Congressional involvement, start mattering to the Republican base. Perhaps the Nunes memo will help, perhaps not.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-shutdown-didnt-change-anything-...

by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 02/05/2018 - 3:52am

Who would you vote for today?

As of Feb. 03 ,2018, 42 percent of Americans said they would vote for a Democrat if a congressional election were held in their district today, while 38 percent would support a Republican.

@ Politico.com, overall national political snapshot, with lots of other interesting stuff like

National trends

Americans' level of trust in each party to handle policy issues has changed since the president took office. The net change below uses the trendline for each party to determine how many points one party has gained over the other since January 30, 2017. The result represents the zero-sum gain for Democrats or Republicans in terms of the public's confidence in each policy area.

National security, Economy, Immigration, Jobs, Energy, Education, Health care, Environment....

by artappraiser on Wed, 02/07/2018 - 3:02pm

Current WaPo headline:

Democrats in liberal California unveil their battle strategy for election season: ‘Go left’

By Scott Wilson, with this lede:

In the self-labeled “state of resistance,” the political debate is being pushed further left without any sign of a Republican renaissance to serve as a check on spending and social policy ambitions. That means Democratic candidates will be staking out the most liberal stance on issues such as single-payer health care, defending California’s “sanctuary state” status on immigration, and pushing green investment to reach strict environmental goals.

They got a different headline on the actual page though:

Think California politics is on the far-left fringe? Just wait for the next elections.

and the piece is more on how what's going on there might be firming up changes in the national Dem party, but then of course it could be or not:

SACRAMENTO — For those who think California politics is on the far-left fringe of the national spectrum, stand by. The next election season, already well underway here, will showcase a younger generation of Democrats that is more liberal and personally invested in standing up to President Trump’s Washington than those leaving office.

Here in the self-labeled “state of resistance,” the political debate is being pushed further left without any sign of a Republican renaissance to serve as a check on spending and social policy ambitions. Even some Republicans are concerned about the departure of Gov. Jerry Brown (D), who proved to be fiscally cautious after inheriting a state seven years ago in deep recession.

The race to succeed him, as well as contests for U.S. Senate and statewide offices, probably will feature a November ballot exclusively filled with Democrats. The top two primary finishers compete in the state’s general election regardless of party, setting up several races between the Democrats’ left and even-more-left wings in the nation’s most-populous state, races that could signal the direction of the party’s future [....]

by artappraiser on Mon, 02/05/2018 - 4:06am

Democrats are now up to 35 (!) red-to-blue state legislative seat flips since Nov 2016 after a win in eastern Missouri tonight. The 3-point win came in a district Trump won by 28 over Clinton just 15 months ago.
— Gabriel Debenedetti (@gdebenedetti) February 7, 2018

by artappraiser on Wed, 02/07/2018 - 1:49am

Good insider piece, some very complicated games going on here:

Pence seeks revenge against Manchin

The vice president is going on the attack after the vulnerable West Virginia Democrat voted against Trump’s tax plan.

@ Politico.com, 02/07/2018 05:00 AM EST

[....] “This line of attack is something you’re going to see over and over,” said a national Republican strategist working to defeat Manchin.

Yet Pence may have done some damage to the institution he presides over as president of the Senate. Senators in both parties said they were upset with the burgeoning feud. After all, Pence may soon need Manchin's vote given the GOP's paper-thin 51-49 majority.

“I don’t think it's wise to alienate people who are willing to work with you,” said Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine).

“That was done because Joe is up” for reelection, said Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.). “If Joe wasn’t up, they never would have done it.” [....]

by artappraiser on Wed, 02/07/2018 - 10:04pm

In the News

Russia plays weak hand in Palestine
Russia plays weak hand in Palestine

submitted by PeraclesPlease 10 months ago

The intra-Palestinian meeting in Moscow has precedent

Russia's hosted such meetings in the past, most recently Feb 2019

Russia has long lamented the US' "monopolization" of the peace process & tried to carve out a niche for itself: mediating among the disunited Palestinians/2
— Hanna Notte (@HannaNotte) February 29, 2024

Read the article at https://twitter.com/HannaNotte/status/1763116222256701787

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Mother Jones is Reaching out to Alternative Party Voters
Mother Jones is Reaching out to Alternative Party Voters

submitted by HSG 11 months ago

Here's what I told them: https://halginsberg.com/vote-for-jill-stein-again/

Read the article at https://halginsberg.com/vote-for-jill-stein-again/

2 comments

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Controversial Brazil law curbing Indigenous rights comes...
Controversial Brazil law curbing Indigenous rights comes into force

submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

Controversial Brazil law curbing Indigenous rights comes into force https://t.co/pCoDg05irX
— Gareth Harris (@garethharr) December 28, 2023

Read the article at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/28/brazil-law-indigenous-land-rights-claim-time-marker?CMP=share_btn_tw

1 comment

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Security Alert: U.S. Embassy Port-au-Prince, Haiti (...
Security Alert: U.S. Embassy Port-au-Prince, Haiti (December 25, 2023)

submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

Location: U.S. Embassy and residential compounds

Events: Heavy gunfire is occuring around the area of the U.S. Embassy and residential compounds adjacent to the Trutier area of Tabarre. All Embassy personnel have been instructed to remain indoors and shelter-in-place until further notice. All others should avoid the area.

Actions to take:

Avoid the area;

Avoid demonstrations and any large gatherings of people;

Do not attempt to drive through roadblocks; and

If you encounter a roadblock, turn around and get to a safe area.

Read the article at https://ht.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-port-au-prince-haiti-december-25-2023/

3 comments

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Pakistan Is Creating the World’s Next Refugee Crisis
Pakistan Is Creating the World’s Next Refugee Crisis

submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

By The Editorial Board @ Bloomberg.com, December 8, 2023

A mass expulsion of Afghan migrants could destabilize the region and fuel radicalization. The West should pressure Islamabad to change course.

Read the article at https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-12-08/pakistan-s-expulsion-of-afghan-refugees-risks-another-crisis

6 comments

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Internet shut down in Chad
Internet shut down in Chad

submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

All eyes on #Chad right now
Chad has two internet trunks coming into the country: One from the Red Sea via Sudan; the other from Cameroon. Not possible for the totality of the country's internet network to be shut unless done centrally. A lot of rumors swirling; few facts. https://t.co/N6bDJZ2ixO

Read the article at https://x.com/_hudsonc/status/1732891968709992511?s=20

2 comments

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[Economy] where Joe's success falls short
[Economy] where Joe's success falls short

submitted by PeraclesPlease 1 year ago

Read the article at

3 comments

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[CRIME News] 3 loss-prevention employees in Macy’s across...
[CRIME News] 3 loss-prevention employees in Macy’s across the street from Philadelphia City Hall stabbed

submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

BREAKING: Three loss prevention employees in Macy’s across the street from Philadelphia City Hall stabbed, one of them has died from stab wounds, @PhillyPolice sources tell me. Police converged on the store as the three workers were rushed to Jefferson Hospital. pic.twitter.com/4U1eKycL4W

Read the article at https://x.com/KeeleyFox29/status/1731713272942940365?s=20

38 comments

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Former U.S. Ambassador Arrested, Charged With Working As...
Former U.S. Ambassador Arrested, Charged With Working As Secret Agent For Cuba

submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

Former US Ambassador Arrested, Charged With Working As Secret Agent For Cuba https://t.co/LDwo4ZJI1K
— HuffPost (@HuffPost) December 4, 2023

Read the article at https://www.huffpost.com/entry/manuel-rocha-ambassador-arrested-cuba_n_656d1e2ae4b028b0f3d07478

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[War in Israel, Chapter II] UNRWA under scrutiny
[War in Israel, Chapter II] UNRWA under scrutiny

submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

[Chapter I news is HERE, Oct. 7 til today]

You don’t get it.
It’s not about an UNRWA teacher who held an Israeli kid hostage in his house.
It’s all about how for 75 years you have destroyed the future of generations of Palestinians, including my family.
My cousins in Arab countries are still not citizens - not even the… https://t.co/nv6anubGhc
— George Deek (@GeorgeDeek) December 2, 2023

Note 'Community Notes' attached to UNWRA's statement.

Read the article at https://x.com/GeorgeDeek/status/1731020551328579863?s=20

58 comments

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Maduro, Under Pressure, Holds Vote to Annex Territory From...
Maduro, Under Pressure, Holds Vote to Annex Territory From a Neighbor

submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

Imperialism for me but not for thee?

It's wild that Venezuela is now holding a vote on whether 2/3 of Guyana actually belongs to them! Analysts suggest that Modoru may want military action to pump up his sinking popularity.

Could we have a war in South America?!?

"The people who live in Essequibo are largely… pic.twitter.com/QvMEjkkgwy

Read the article at https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/03/world/americas/maduro-vote-essequibo-guyana.html

6 comments

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[Where is the GOP headed?] Divisions leave Florida’s House...
[Where is the GOP headed?] Divisions leave Florida’s House Republicans powerless

submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

The lack of a cohesive delegation has allowed attention-seeking lawmakers to act on their own.

McCarthy: “You have [Rep. Matt] Gaetz, who belongs in jail…”

Gaetz: “Tough words from a guy who sucker punches people in the back. The only assault I committed was against Kevin’s fragile ego.”https://t.co/LctPuz6Pcf

Read the article at https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/29/divisions-leave-floridas-house-republicans-powerless-00129200

10 comments

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‘She got so mad at me’: book on the ‘Squad’ details AOC-...
‘She got so mad at me’: book on the ‘Squad’ details AOC-Pelosi clashes

submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

By Martinn Pengelly in Washington DC for TheGuardian.com, Nov. 30

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tells Ryan Grim life in Congress ‘completely transformed’ after Democratic leader stepped down

Read the article at https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/nov/30/squad-book-aoc-nancy-pelosi?CMP=share_btn_tw

15 comments

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US health insurers Humana, Cigna in talks to merge -source
US health insurers Humana, Cigna in talks to merge -source

submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

@ Reuters, Nov. 29

Read the article at https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/us-health-insurers-humana-cigna-talks-merge-wsj-2023-11-29/

3 comments

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Central Africa’s dinosaur regimes and the art of coup-...
Central Africa’s dinosaur regimes and the art of coup-proofing

submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

"Both the AU and the intl community place more weight on whether elections are held than whether they are free and fair. Sanctions/expulsions occur when there is a coup but not necessarily when elections are rigged or if an “institutional coup” occurs." https://t.co/m9dNimJP0D
— Cameron Hudson (@_hudsonc) November 28, 2023

Read the article at https://africanarguments.org/2023/11/central-africas-dinosaur-regimes-and-the-art-of-coup-proofing/

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