Iran nuclear deal reached in Geneva

By artappraiser on Sat, 11/23/2013 - 10:52pm |

By Jim Sciutto and Chelsea J. Carter, CNN, Nov. 23, 2013

Obama: Path to weapons cut off

Deal provides for intrusive inspections and neutralizes Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium, a senior U.S. administration official says.

Also see:

Deal Reached With Iran Halts Its Nuclear Program
By Michael R. Gordon in Geneva, New York Times, Nov. 23, 2013

URL:

http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/23/world/meast/iran-nuclear-talks-geneva/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

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David Ignatius makes an intriguing point in Backstage brawl over a deal @ Washington Post:

[....] As the Iran deal has taken shape, a backstage brawl is developing with Israel and Saudi Arabia, two countries crucially affected by the deal. The unrelenting attacks on the agreement by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which are the culmination of four years of mistrust between him and President Obama, are rumbling the bedrock of the U.S.-Israeli relationship — a consequence neither country wants.

But there’s an intriguing upside: The Israeli-Saudi mutual dislike of the Iran nuclear deal, and their de facto alliance against it, may weirdly prove one of the “silver linings” of this negotiation. Indeed, if the Israelis become a protector and defender of the Sunni Muslim countries, that could have lasting security benefits for Israel and might even open the way for progress on the Palestinian issue — without the usual American mediation [.....]

and I wonder whether the thought sprang wholly from his own head or someone from the administration planted something along those lines there....

by artappraiser on Sun, 11/24/2013 - 8:57am

Meanwhile, Jeffrey Goldberg is relying upon Prince Alwaleed bin Talal to give an accurate representation of what the Gulf States think.

But I ran across this news tidbit: Saudi King Abdullah met the emirs of Qatar and Kuwait for a mini-summit Saturday at the Daily Star. And then I saw this at the Wall Street Journal: Saudi Arabia Mute on Iran Deal; Gulf State Yet to Issue Official Response, which says what's really going on is a "wait and see, it would be stupid to fight the six right off the bat":

Initial Saudi reaction to the nuclear deal reached with Iran early Sunday morning was muted, as officials digested its details, but analysts predicted that Gulf Arab leaders would be reassured by the fact that all the Western powers participating in negotiations—rather than only the U.S.—approved the plan.
Earlier this fall, Saudi Arabia Foreign Minister Saud al Faisal set his country's public position on Iranian nuclear negotiations when he told U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry that the kingdom accepted the Obama administration's promise that it wouldn't accept any deal that let Iran secretly develop a nuclear bomb.

That doesn't let Obama off the hook about the mistrust and suspicion that Gulf countries have about his competence (which Prince Alaweed was basically referring to.) It's that they are comfortable with "wait and see" because all six powers were involved in the deal.

by artappraiser on Sun, 11/24/2013 - 9:14am

Bibi is being unreasonable in insisting that Iran can't be allowed to have nuclear power at all. Nothing in the various non-proliferation agreements forbids that.

by Aaron Carine on Sun, 11/24/2013 - 9:33am

Do you think he is coming from an "axis of evil" or "us vs. them" Manichean sorta place where it's real important that Iran remain a symbolic & mysterious & dangerous pariah? Because they have already have had good, useful relations with lots of Sunni nations in the past (i.e., Egypt) so they can't play that role so easily.

by artappraiser on Sun, 11/24/2013 - 4:24pm

Perhaps he feels that we need absolute certainty that Iran won't get the bomb, and the only way to ensure that is to deny them nuclear power altogether.

by Aaron Carine on Sun, 11/24/2013 - 6:50pm

“When he put that red line out, and the red line was crossed, he blinks,” he said, going on to suggest that Obama is mistaken to believe that Syria will, in fact, ship out all of its chemical weapons, as it has agreed to do. “You think the chemicals are going to come out, one hundred percent? Come on. Even if he lets them go, the same people who produced them before will produce them again.” When Obama “blinked,” Alwaleed suggested, the Arabs came to the conclusion that he would not stand up to Iran, either.

Obama didn't blink; the world blinked; the American people and Congress blinked (if anyone blinked). Alwaleed or the writer is taking a maximalist position on Syria's weapons by asking a rhetorical question that seeks to persuade by making the listener doubt himself for fear of being convicted of naiveté.

by Peter Schwartz on Sun, 11/24/2013 - 3:28pm

It's amazing. Obama was characterized as the warmonger really to go to war in Syria. Now he is too weak-kneed to deal with Iran.

by rmrd0000 on Mon, 11/25/2013 - 4:15pm

A man for all seasons.

by Peter Schwartz on Mon, 11/25/2013 - 10:10pm

What else does the West have to offer Iran except some lessening of the sanctions? Whatever happened to trust but verify?

by Peter Schwartz on Sun, 11/24/2013 - 3:30pm

The agreement is not as big of a deal as it's being made out to be by many. The big deal, the big news is that we are talking with Iran and that it's not idle chatter.

I would say it is very much a "trust but verify" deal. It's a very limited lessening of some sanctions and the agreement is only for a six month period at which time a cat and mouse game could start allover again. But again, if that happens, we are talking directly with them now and are actually able to negotiate, that is the news.

The NYT article is helpful in this regard. Did you read it? At the end:

[....] Regarding enrichment, Iran’s stockpile of such low-enriched uranium would be allowed to temporarily increase to about eight tons from about seven tons currently. But Tehran would be required to shrink this stockpile by the end of the six-month agreement back to seven tons. This would be done by installing equipment to covert some of that stockpile to oxide.

To guard against cheating, international monitors would be allowed to visit the Natanz enrichment facility and the underground nuclear enrichment plant at Fordo on a daily basis to check the film from cameras installed there.

But Iran did not agree to all of the intrusive inspection regime that the International Atomic Energy Agency had said was needed to ensure that the Iranian program is peaceful.

by artappraiser on Sun, 11/24/2013 - 3:43pm

Yes, we are talking and moving...and those things are big deals, IMO.

I'm sure that's how most "big deals" get started...with small, but concrete steps.

by Peter Schwartz on Sun, 11/24/2013 - 4:58pm

Interesting stuff in the following report if you like to review your preconceptions about what has been going on in diplomatic circles. Like that the U.S. and Iran were starting to link up all the while that the brouhaha was going on about bombing Syria over chem weapons. And that Jeffrey Feltman's visits to Iran were part of the program and included a meeting with the Ayatollah himself. And that the Sultan of Oman has been an important intermediary (so much for all Gulf States thinking alike!)

As Relations Warmed, Secret Talks Paved Way for Iran Deal
By Chris Good, Martha Raddatz, Alexander Marquardt and Jeff Zeleny, ABC News, Nov. 24, 2013

[....] The meetings began in March, and they followed exploratory, back-channel talks about setting up higher-level meetings.

Burns, Sullivan and a team of technological experts discussed Iran's nuclear program with senior Iranian officials at meetings in Oman and Geneva. They also met in New York City during the United Nations General Assembly, which convened in September and October [....]

In late September, as the U.N. General Assembly convened in New York, Secretary of State John Kerry met, one on one, with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif -- even as experts warned that contact between Iran and the U.S. would prove politically difficult for both sides at home [....]

Back-channel communications had been going on for years between Washington and Tehran, but diplomacy gained momentum with the election in June of Rouhani, a self-declared moderate with a mandate from Iran's clerical leadership to seek a deal with world powers to ease financial and trade sanctions that have shrunk the nation's economy.

Sullivan, Burns and their team of experts met with senior officials from Iran.

Meanwhile, Jeffrey Feltman, the former top American diplomat in the Middle East and current U.N. under-secretary-general for political affairs, visited Tehran several times since leaving the State Department last year and met with Ayatollah Khamenei, the most powerful figure in Iran.

American and Iranian officials were aided by Oman's Sultan Qaboos bin Said, a longtime and well-known intermediary, who hosted the Americans and Iranians for talks. He also made a rare trip to Iran in late August to meet with Khamenei.

President Obama personally authorized the talks and sent Burns, Sullivan and five other officials to meet with Iranian counterparts in Muscat, Oman.

Public contact has posed political challenges on both sides.

In Iran, anti-American sentiment and the influence of hardliners has made talking to U.S. officials politically risky for Iranians. In the U.S., [....]

by artappraiser on Sun, 11/24/2013 - 4:12pm

Bahrain (despite its restive Shiite population) has also officially welcomed the deal. The Saudis' muted reaction may reflect an appreciation that the Sunni-ruled Gulf states don't all share their visceral hostility to Iran. Also that the U.S. got Iran to concede way more than anyone reasonably expected going into the talks. In return, Iran got a slight easing of sanctions -- but more important long-term, it got the U.S. to talk to it, face to face, like an adult nation.

by acanuck on Mon, 11/25/2013 - 1:55am

Just in passing, the threat of a more stable Middle East caused the price of Brent crude oil to fall nearly three dollars a barrel yesterday. Thank Obama and Kerry next time you fill up your gas tank.

by acanuck on Mon, 11/25/2013 - 2:17am

So far-so good. Better than I would have predicted. I see the pot odds won that come from a long term deal as well worth some risk. Hope it all works out.

by AnonymousLULU DUDE (not verified) on Mon, 11/25/2013 - 1:03pm

According to this, Brent has been at a plateau for several days, and the spread above WTI is fairly high:

http://oil-price.net/dashboard.php

by Donal on Tue, 11/26/2013 - 10:16am

More "behind the scenes, including that the Oman angle was cultivated by John Kerry while he was still chairman of Senate Foreign Relations Committee, with blessings of the White House:

Secret Talks in Oman Preceded Iran Nuclear Deal in Geneva, U.S. Officials Say
By Michael R. Gordon, New York Times, Nov. 25/26, 2013

WASHINGTON — Secretary of State John Kerry passed a secret message to Iran during a visit to Oman last May in an effort to improve relations and encourage talks on Iran’s nuclear program, according to American officials.

Mr. Kerry conveyed the message to the sultan of Oman, Qaboos bin Said, who has long served as a conduit for American communications with the government in Tehran.

It was not the first time that Mr. Kerry has used this channel.

With the support of the Obama administration, Mr. Kerry made an unannounced trip to Oman when he was chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to see if the sultan would facilitate a dialogue between the United States and Iran.

That trip occurred on Dec. 8, 2011. Mr. Kerry missed an important vote in the Senate and never explained his absence.

Mr. Kerry was just one point of contact for a series of secret talks that the White House and State Department had with Iran before the nuclear agreement announced on Sunday.

William J. Burns [....]

by artappraiser on Mon, 11/25/2013 - 4:30pm

It's easy to understand the Saudi and Israeli concerns that Obama has round heels based on his track record with Boehner. They well be right. But maybe this is a case where a bad deal would be better than no deal at all.

It's above my grade of pay so this will be my final comment.

by Flavius on Mon, 11/25/2013 - 5:49am

Roger Cohen has a good take on what this deal means in the long term for Israeli foreign policy and internal politics.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/26/opinion/cohen-israels-iran-dilemma.htm...

The NYT also looks at how this accelerates a shift in U.S. relations with Saudi Arabia and in fact the whole balance of power (not just military) in the Middle East. Logically, it's four-cornered: Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iran. Freezing Iran out for 35 years was an aberration with enormous bad consequences -- not least the destruction of Iraq. Even under its current theocratic regime, Iran was potentially a solid ally against Al-Qa'ida and its ilk. Instead, the U.S. has (blindly, it seems) fueled Sunni-Shia conflict. Bad for those in the countries affected, but also for the West and the world at large. Syria is the poster child. Normalizing relations with Iran and recognizing its role as a regional power is long overdue. Maybe Obama is finally earning his Nobel.

by acanuck on Tue, 11/26/2013 - 4:10pm

I appreciate your proscription for engagement, but your history is one-sided. Until recently, Iran showed no interest in engaging "the Great Satan" and does not even recognize Israel's existence (not to mention financing a hostile military force on the Lebanon border). You might say more accurately that freezing out America and Israel for 35 years was an aberration with enormous bad consequences for Iran.

The U.S. might have been more proactive in trying to engage Iran after the revolution, but I doubt that it would have come to much. Iran wasn't ready. I hope that it's ready now.

by Michael Wolraich on Wed, 11/27/2013 - 2:43pm

I'd check your version. Iran of course had a popular reformist leader in the 90s constantly at odds with the Imam. bush's Axis of Evil gave the leadership the excuse to shut down the stagnating reforms, and thus came the populist Ahmadinejad. Post-9/11 the Iranians seemed to be helping the US behind the scenes, but we went out of our way to make them the enemy.

In 2008 we had candidates discussing impending attacks on Iran and earlier the use of a pre-emptive nuclear strike. Diplomacy American style I suppose. Bomb bomb bomb bomb Iran was just a piece of McCain's maverickness i suppose. Then again, you say 35 years freezing out America. I suppose our support of Hussein's attack on Iran with a prolonged bloody war was all Iran's fault. After all, theyve been such aggressors the last hundred years, having attacked uh, well... nobody.

As for Israel, take a poll in Iraq about Zion and it won't be a dime's difference from Iran's. (Suspect Iran might be a bit more western and educated on the subject, but may be my prejudice). but iraq is now our puppet while iran is our enemy

by Anonymous pp (not verified) on Wed, 11/27/2013 - 3:41pm

*referring to attack as an army, not in supplying weapons, which every power in the region does, including US, Russia, qatar, Saudis, Turkey, Israel, Egypt, France, etc.

by Anonymous pp (not verified) on Wed, 11/27/2013 - 3:45pm

I concede that Bush squandered an opportunity in 2003, but it's ridiculous (and patronizing to Iran) to suggest that the U.S. has been rebuffing Iran's desire to normalize relations for 35 years.

by Michael Wolraich on Wed, 11/27/2013 - 3:58pm

"The U.S. might have been more proactive in trying to engage Iran after the revolution, but I doubt that it would have come to much. Iran wasn't ready. I hope that it's ready now."

Might have been more proactive, ah yes.... quite the understatement, or say quite the opposite of our intent. 2 links for your edification:

"United States support for Iraq during the Iran–Iraq war"

"History lesson: When the United States looked the other way on chemical weapons"

Perhaps the US wasn't ready, and aside from 4 years of Khatami-Clinton, still isn't quite ready. (Obama pretty well backed into this latest deal grudgingly along with the one with Syria - accidental diplomacy?)

by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 11/28/2013 - 6:19am

You are correct to point this out to commenters. Seems like all of a sudden everyone's forgetting that the reason this "detente" is happening is the EU and others finally joined the U.S. with much stricter sanctions in 2012 (which the Obama administration did work hard at making happen.) Clearly, the unity show with sanctions had a change-of-thinking effect on the mullahs about how to go about pursuing getting respect from the rest of the world. (I would argue much more so than the "Green Revolution" which they gave all indication of feeling that they had crushed without much blowback.) Rouhani was allowed to be a candidate for president and also to suggest that he would get the sanctions turned off. Iran has actually not at all been shy about communicating straight out that this is all about getting sanctions turned off. Previously, they did not trade with U.S. but trade with a lot of the rest of the world was seen as sufficient and this picture fit in with the "Great Satan" narrative. Once the U.S. had a bigger multilateral unity show, they changed their minds and attitude.

So much for those from the left who think sanctions are ineffective immoral communal punishment when dictatorships are involved. And furthermore, it's interesting that conservative hawks right now are arguing that full sanctions should stay on when they usually laugh at them as ineffective.

It should be noted that very early in his presidency Obama tried some nicey nice communication (happy nowruz messages and diplomatic etc.) and was quickly rebuffed.

by artappraiser on Thu, 11/28/2013 - 1:05pm

Part of the reason sanctions were effective was our occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq - borders not available to sneak stuff through. Plus with Syria turned into a civil war zone thanks to ours & Saudi backing, and our/UK/France/Italy's overthrow of Libya, we might have affected Mullah thinking. Hard to chalk that up to just sanctions - there's a lot of military spend & weapon fire on the ground there.

And that unity thing? It so happens most of those countries didn't really see a need to punish Iran, but our diplomacy & foreign policy has turned into "who can we get to sign on to sanctions & invasions" - yes, we're refining our ability to twist arms, and not worth the political capital to keep us off our Mideast foraging.

As I pointed out before, Bush created the opportunity for Ahmadinejad to replace the much more Western friendly Khatami - but we'll just erase that from our history books and pretend Rouhani's an aberration and Iran's always just been pushing towards nuclear weapons with that 20% highly-enriched fuel. Just a bunch of crazy Muslims out to destroy the world - fortunately we pulled them back to the side of light.

by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 11/28/2013 - 3:32pm

I'm glad you "concede that Bush squandered an opportunity in 2003," Michael. But it wasn't just a misjudgment that Iran wasn't really serious; it was a conscious, ideologically driven decision to derail any chance of rapprochement. And it worked. We got eight years of hostility and Ahmadinejad.

Just to refresh your recall of what Iran put on the table in 2003:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/17/AR200606...

The real damage came with the January 2002 "axis of evil" speech. Reformist president Mohammad Khatami, elected with 70% support, had been calling for dialogue since 1997. After 9/11, Iran allied itself with the U.S. in overthrowing the Taliban, offering escape routes for downed pilots, backing the U.S. nomination of Karzai, etc. In just four months, that growing co-operation was rewarded -- out of the blue -- with "axis of evil." And still Khatami sent out feelers.

In passing, Foreign Minister Zarif, who negotiated the current deal with Kerry, is said to be the guy who drafted the 2003 proposal. A wasted decade.

by acanuck on Thu, 11/28/2013 - 3:43pm

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