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Santorum Slumps in Super Tuesday Polls

by artappraiser 3/5/2012 - 3:56 pm

By Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight @ nytimes.com, March 5, 2012,  2:13 pm

Rick Santorum got a rough result in the Washington caucuses on Saturday, finishing third in a state he had seemed to have a reasonable shot of winning. Now, Mr. Santorum’s slump is carrying over into the polls in crucial Super Tuesday states.

In Ohio, Mitt Romney has been the beneficiary of this. Although some polls still show Mr. Santorum with a lead, Mr. Romney was ahead in the majority of surveys that were conducted over the weekend and seems to have favorable momentum. Our forecast model there now shows Mr. Romney ahead by 2.5 percentage points there, and makes him a 2-to-1 favorite to win the state.

Mr. Santorum is also creating opportunities for his opponents in the two other Super Tuesday states that have been heavily polled [.....]

Read the full article at http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/05/santorum-slumps-in-super-tuesday-polls/

Time to change the Dagblog headline Tuesday:  Ohio Is Santorum-licious! ?

He's gone to whining the victimhood of campaign finance, that's a strong sign of desperation from a Republican. It just couldn't be that a lot of Republican primary voters like birth control, college educations and separation of church and state, that's not in the Santorum mindset, no way that can't be it.

by artappraiser 3/5/2012 - 5:07 pm

Super Tuesday Delegate Projection Update

By Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight @ nytimes.com, March 5, 2012, 4:11 pm

There has been enough movement in the polls in the past 24 hours to warrant revisiting our delegate projections from Sunday. I now have Rick Santorum trailing Mitt Romney by about 150 delegates, and also falling behind Newt Gingrich, who has some favorable momentum in the delegate-rich Southern states.

Based on the most recent polls, I’m making the following set of changes: [....]

by artappraiser 3/5/2012 - 6:55 pm

Supplemental information from 

The Limbaugh divide- pro-Rush Ohio Republicans support Santorum 39-35. Anti-Rush ones go 39-30 for Mitt: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/03/limbaugh-and-birthers.html

by EmmaZahn 3/5/2012 - 8:05 pm

Is interesting after hearing Carville rant on Maher's show last night that Limbaugh and the establishment GOP are one and the same thing, that there isn't any other GOP left standing that could be called the party's establishment cheeky

by artappraiser 3/6/2012 - 12:00 am (re: EmmaZahn)

Pew March 5: Campaign Continues to Hurt GOP More Than It Helps:

http://www.people-press.org/2012/03/05/gop-race-is-rallying-democrats/

One of the charts:

by artappraiser 3/6/2012 - 12:02 am

Good related piece by Ryan Lizza:

Life of The Party: Can the G.O.P. save itself?
The New Yorker, March 12, 2012 issue

[....] The polls back up Santorum and Kabaservice’s claim. In the past ten years, as self-proclaimed conservatives have increased from sixty-two per cent of the Republican Party to seventy-one per cent, the percentage of Republicans describing themselves as moderates has declined from thirty-one per cent to twenty-three per cent. The number who call themselves “liberal” is now close to the number who describe themselves as Aleut or Eskimo.

The shift to the right has brought new, highly energized voters into the Party, which took over the House and gained six seats in the Senate in 2010. But it has also brought risks [....]

Political parties aren’t supposed to act suicidal. For decades, the reigning theory held that politicians, not activists, defined the parties. These politicians were rational people who cared only about winning office [....]

by artappraiser 3/6/2012 - 12:15 am (re: artappraiser)

Mitt’s Super Tuesday: Could He Wrap Things Up?
Posted by John Cassidy on his New Yorker blog, March 5, 2012

For weeks now, I and many others have been saying that the results of Super Tuesday won’t be decisive—that the bruising G.O.P. nomination battle is likely to drag on into May or June, and maybe even until the convention, in August.

On the eve of the voting in ten states, with four hundred and thirty-seven delegates at stake, an alternative scenario is looming—one that’s much more favorable to Mitt Romney. With Rick Santorum’s support seemingly falling away in many places, following his defeat in Michigan and a barrage of negative publicity about his religious views, it is now quite conceivable that Romney could do well enough for the Republican Party panjandrums, desperate to put an end to the internecine warfare, to hail him as the nominee-elect.

If this does happen, the primaries in other states will continue, of course; [....]

by artappraiser 3/6/2012 - 1:13 am

Illustration by Bob Staake for the above cited New Yorker article smiley

by artappraiser 3/6/2012 - 1:23 am (re: artappraiser)

I caught this pic and I went nuts. hahahahaha

Good show!

by Richard Day 3/6/2012 - 4:50 am (re: artappraiser)

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