MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
Order today at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop
MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE by Michael Wolraich Order today at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop |
This is a really good look at why polls under count Democratic votes.
In 2010, the polls underestimated the Democrats in every competitive Senate race by an average of 3.1 percentage points, based on data from The Huffington Post’s Pollster model. In 2012, pre-election polls underestimated President Obama in nine of the 10 battleground states by an average of 2 percentage points.
“The problems that we’re having with getting representative samples tend to lead us toward people who tend not to be Democrats,” said Scott Keeter, the director of survey research at the Pew Research Center.
Comments
Or not, by Nate Silver.
by artappraiser on Sun, 11/02/2014 - 1:48am
And Silver's latest on the Senate is bad news for Dems.
by artappraiser on Sun, 11/02/2014 - 1:54am
I understand Dr. Sam Wang easier then Nate Silver's formula. Sam showing it a toss up which is 49% D to 51% R. He uses the median of all the polls. He doesn't weight any of them or take the average of all the polls for the last couple of weeks. He just uses the straight numbers.
by trkingmomoe on Sun, 11/02/2014 - 11:16am