MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
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Hits of the Day
Sudden Rise in Home Demand Takes Builders by Surprise
By artappraiser on Thu, 03/21/2013 - 2:50am |By Catherine Rampell, New York Times, March 20/21, 2013
SACRAMENTO — After six years of waiting on the sidelines, newly eager home buyers across the country are discovering that there are not enough houses for sale to accommodate the recent flush of demand.
“In my 27 years I’ve never seen inventories this low,” said Kurt K. Colgan, a broker with Lyon Real Estate in the Sacramento metropolitan area, where the share of homes on the market has plummeted by one of the largest amounts in the nation. “I’ve also never seen a market turn so quickly.”
The housing turnaround seems to have caught almost everyone in the business by surprise. As desirable as the long-awaited improvement may be, the unusually low level of homes for sale is creating widespread problems for buyers and sellers alike, leading to bidding wars and bubblelike price jumps in places that not long ago were suffering from major declines [....]
In many areas, builders are scrambling to ramp up production but face delays because of the difficulty of finding construction workers and in obtaining permits from suddenly overwhelmed local authorities. At the same time, homeowners — many of them lifted above water for the first time in years — often remain reluctant to sell, either because they want to wait and see how much further prices will climb or because they are afraid of being displaced in the sudden buying frenzy. [....]
Note accompanying page of graphs: Housing Is Finally on The Mend
URL:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/21/business/economy/in-us-surprise-housing-demand-catches-industry-off-guard.html?hp
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Comments
Odd, I just read another article predicting that the boomers are supposed to be ready to sell their McMansions and move to smaller digs:
The NY Times article doesn't go into detail about what sort of houses are suddenly being sought. In Altoona, we hear that smaller in-town houses like ours are being snapped up as soon as they are listed.
by Donal on Thu, 03/21/2013 - 12:00pm
For what it's worth, the Times made the story their page 1 headline story in today's print edition. So the editors think "this is surprising big news contrary to conventional wisdom."
I myself always thought the "Boomers will all try to sell the McMansions at the same time" thing was a given. And yeah the story doesn't have a lot of detail. But it should stir things up and get more people looking at data to prove or disprove or give more nuance to what is happening? The story (and charts) do show that what they are talking about is skewed heavily to certain areas like Sacramento, and in the areas it's so strong that averaging out makes it look nationwide, but many areas still have bad numbers. So what the story alerts to is something that will help ramp up the economy, without reviving real estate in that many areas? Location, location, location, as always?
(Speaking of location specifics,as an example, in NYC as a homeowner in the Bronx, I never saw evidence of construction-related workers being so devastated by unemployment that they were begging for work. Contractors, plumbers, electricians, et.al. never were begging for small jobs here, never. You still had to beg them, i.e., they want cash, their estimates are all the same, they will maybe try to fit you in next week between jobs, etc., or they didn't even call you back...and Hurricane Sandy didn't exactly help this situation...the only begging for work I saw evidence of were people that said they were painters, but then if you'd ask them if they could paint like the outside of the house, they'd say no....they weren't really painters.)
by artappraiser on Thu, 03/21/2013 - 4:39pm
I've heard this theory before, but I've always been skeptical of it, as it ignores both the sentimental values of existing homes (children and/or grandchildren having spent many years in them) and the inertia factor. For many people, there would have to be a strong reason to sell an existing home. Now sure, if the stock market was continuing to go down instead of up, I think this theory would have a lot more merit. I'm not saying the theory's wrong, just that I'm curious as to whether there's any data to back it up.
by Verified Atheist on Thu, 03/21/2013 - 5:21pm
I also wonder about the phenomenon of grown kids that never leave or move back in when they graduate and can't find real jobs. Some might want to accommodate the prodigals, but some might want a smaller house or condo precisely to avoid permanent house guests. There's a mattress commercial on the tube with the son moving back in with his skanky fiancee that might scare some older couples into an efficiency.
A lot of folk with kids move near the good schools, and once the kids are educated they move to areas with lower property taxes. And a lot of people don't want to care for a big house and yard once they get older.
by Donal on Fri, 03/22/2013 - 7:46am
What you say makes sense, but from my (limited) experience (AKA anecdotal evidence), I haven't witnessed this. The parents that I know that have kids moving in are the same kind of parents that tend to be enablers, although I'm not going to argue that's always the case. I'd wager that this phenomenon also varies greatly based on regional norms. I.e., if you live in a region where you tend to live in one house for most of your life, you're far less likely to sell it just because you're older. However, if you move every 5-10 years, then, sure, you're more likely to be looking for a smaller one, unless you want to have plenty of guest rooms for grandkids.
All speculation, of course, which is why I'm interested in seeing the data.
by Verified Atheist on Fri, 03/22/2013 - 10:31am
Lets hope the housing shortage continues, that'll drive the cost of available houses up. Allowing those who continued to pay their underwater mortgages, to recover the lost value.
Don't allow the home builders to bring in illegal, undocumented / workers, to do the work, American workers won't do that cheap. If the home builders want workers, let them support Unions, who will train the future carpenters, plumbers and electricians.
I've heard there are plenty off college grads, wanting to work at a job with decent wages, in order to pay off their school loans.
A shortage of homes and a shortage of workers, will get the price up for both concerns.
The American middle class may still rise again?
by Resistance on Thu, 03/21/2013 - 8:06pm