MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
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Hamas’s Chances
By A Guy Called LULU on Sat, 08/02/2014 - 4:29pm |The current war in Gaza was not one Israel or Hamas sought. But both had no doubt that a new confrontation would come. The 21 November 2012 ceasefire that ended an eight-day-long exchange of Gazan rocket fire and Israeli aerial bombardment was never implemented.
URL:
http://www.lrb.co.uk/v36/n16/nathan-thrall/hamass-chances
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Comments
by A Guy Called LULU on Sat, 08/02/2014 - 4:32pm
Thanks, Lulu. This is an interesting and thoughtful assessment of Hamas' motives. It seems speculative, though, offering no sources, not even unidentified sources. And while the author makes a laudable effort to find method in the madness, it's hard for me to imagine that Hamas leaders (or Israeli leaders for that matter) are so coolly calculating.
by Michael Wolraich on Sun, 08/03/2014 - 8:49pm
I agree that if there is a weakness to Thrall's piece it is that he, in affect, asks his readers to just take his word regarding his allegations made in support of his conclusions. I believe that he isn't, though, intending to to fill up blank slates. His assertions of fact and the conclusions they lead to seem to me to fit what is widely known and conform to the sequence of events we have seen play out. He does not ask us to believe anything that is like an unbelievable element of an idiot plot necessary to tie things together in a poorly scripted action movie.
Googling Thrall and then The International Crisis Group which has an impressive web sight and a mission statement which I like, one that raises no flags that I can see, reinforces my subjective conclusion that his writing here has the 'ring of truth'. I hope that what he has written gets enough traction that pundits of all persuasion vet it and bring out anything which he might have been mistaken about. As of now I am believing that he is essentially correct in his time-line of events, motives, and conclusions.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nathan_Thrall
http://www.crisisgroup.org/
As to your last sentence I just don't know. I mean, what else do they have to think about. And, it is not as though the whole scenario was planned/determined a long time ago and then put in motion. Many actions described are simply reactions to events as they unfold, often ones that could have gone any of several ways.
by A Guy Called LULU on Mon, 08/04/2014 - 12:01pm
http://972mag.com/comic-meanwhile/94621/
by A Guy Called LULU on Mon, 08/04/2014 - 12:31pm
I agree that his account is plausible and certainly worth thinking about, though it bugs me when writers present speculative hypotheses as if they were facts.
Regarding the last sentence, I believe that going to war requests a certain amount of emotional hysteria and reckless optimism. Call it warmonger syndrome. Governments generally go to war when the warmongers outnumber or outmaneuver the peaceniks. We've seen plenty of that behavior from the U.S. government as well as from European governments before the world wars. We can see it from Israel in the shifting rationale for its offensive--first the murdered boys, then the rockets, then the tunnels.
Hamas, with its powerful military wing, likely has plenty of warmongers hungry for an excuse to fight. That is not to say that calculated strategy does not fit into the picture, but the calculations often provide the rationalization, not the reason.
by Michael Wolraich on Mon, 08/04/2014 - 2:53pm
Fair enough. Not really to argue but to just keep commenting, I think most of the pertinent claims made are accepted as facts, but if questionable are surely verifiable one way or the other. Some linking assertions that can be seen as unverified/un attributed speculation fit into the script so seamlessly that it is like those mathematical puzzles which ask you to determine the missing number within a sequence of given numbers. Not that there can ever be such mathematical precision when looking at human actions.
I'm guessing you meant "requires" rather than "requests" but I like the sentence best as written. Some of the war mongers are in, or in sympathy with, ideological groups that do their mongering with an explicit goal in mind. They tactically employ, often as a group, calculated methods [including the stinking "Noble Lie"] in an attempt to get the war they want which is part of their calculated geo-political end-game. One tactic is to 'request' that you believe the hyped fear they push and then requesting that you believe that they know how to organize a cake walk that will vanquish that fear. Believing that after so much requires some reckless optimism for sure. Or reckless complacency maybe. Or ...
by A Guy Called LULU on Mon, 08/04/2014 - 4:43pm
Yeah, I meant require, but I acknowledge your point. Calculating leaders certainly whip up war hysteria to bolster their case. Still, I everything I've read about the calculus for war suggests that the hysteria infects the leaders as well, even those who deliberately fan the flames. Barbara Tuchman's Guns of August offers great examples of top generals subscribing to ridiculously optimistic assessments of military strength. Looking to our own recent history, GW and Cheney obviously exaggerated Saddam Hussein's threat in order to manipulate public opinion, yet I'm sure they genuinely believed they would find WMDs and that the Iraq war would be short and glorious. And when you add a religious component--the belief that God is on your side--it just adds to the insanity.
Time will tell, I suppose. Meanwhile, more people will die, Palestinians mostly, and I doubt that either side will come out of this better than before.
by Michael Wolraich on Mon, 08/04/2014 - 5:50pm
Re the conditions that prevail when deciding to go to War. I've written this before but it is apropos. Learned it in 1962 working in an Inn in Harlow Old Town, England and listening to an interview with Violet Bonham Carter (Asquith's daughter) onthe Saturday Edition of the Nine OcClock News .
In July/Aug 1914 the coalition British Cabinet was a badly split on whether to declare War.There was a temporary agreement that they would do so only if the Germans took aggressive action.
Finally the pressure of the War supporters became too strong for Asquith to resist so he persuaded the cabinet to essentially declare war via a strong note he sent to the German Ambassador..Since the Germans had not actually done anything the note was vague about the Brit's complaint.
At that point a telegram arrived with the news that a German machine gun post had fired into Belgium.. So Asquith directed a very new official to retrieve Note 1 and replace it with Note 2, saying that HMG was forced to declare war because of this machine gun attack.
Off he went through the streets of London past beer gardens full of drunken enthusiasts with church bells all pealing.in celebration..Altho very junior in Government the official (Harold Nicholson)was also very upper class and he had previously attended social events at the German Ambassador's residence.
He knocked.Told the door man he had a message for the Ambassador and was allowed to go upstairs to the private quarters. The door was shut. Through the windows Nicholson could hear the church bells and drunken shouts. Through the door he could hear the Ambassador-pro British and anti War- sobbing..Nicholson said
. Without looking up the Ambassador said
Which Nicholson did, While also picking up the -unopened - first note.
And the War could begin.
by Flavius on Tue, 08/05/2014 - 12:39am
The real lesson, as they turned off all the lights around Britain this last evening:
Hate does not have to be forever, no matter how evil the actions causing it.
by artappraiser on Tue, 08/05/2014 - 2:12am
Could be.. I don't usually quote Frost. "Edgar Guest with maple syrup" but FWIW his take was
by Flavius on Tue, 08/05/2014 - 10:35pm
Diane Rehm show today discussed Hamas and a couple guests said:
1. Hamas military wing is in control of operations in Gaza.
2. The Hamas military wing sees no future in operating from Gaza alone, it is too well contained by Israel. This is a fight for Hamas gaining control of Palestinian areas on the West Bank. To force the moderates out like they did in Gaza 6-7 years ago.
3. Sacrifice Gaza, make the PA look weak, displace the PA and make Hamas rule and/or operate from Nablus, Jenin, Ramallah. Take their war of extermination of Israel to Jerusalem.
Your link notes:
...Palestinian protests in solidarity with Gaza have spread. Hamas flags outnumbered those of Fatah at a recent protest in Nablus. The Ramallah leadership, not altogether convincingly, has adopted some of Hamas’s rhetoric, using the word ‘resistance’ and praising Hamas’s fight.
The guests said parties interested in weakening Hamas must strengthen the PA, and avoid the conflict moving onto the West Bank.
by NCD on Mon, 08/04/2014 - 12:45pm
If the conditions in the West Bank are considered confining, wouldn't it be natural for people who have given up hope of freedom to prefer Hamas?
Can Fatah argue that their approach has gained more freedom in the West Bank than Hamas has gained in Gaza?
by rmrd0000 on Mon, 08/04/2014 - 2:14pm
Here is Netanyahu in 2001 bragging about having the United States in his pocket. He has always felt that United States Presidents were his puppets.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/07/16/netanyahu-in-2001-america_n_649...
by rmrd0000 on Mon, 08/04/2014 - 6:07pm
Israel easedropped on John Kerry's conversations
http://thehill.com/policy/international/214183-israel-eavesdropped-on-ke...
The UN called Israel 33 times to tell of the presence of civilians in schools that Israel subsequently bombed.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/04/un-dragged-conflict-israel-...
Other than the loss of life, the message being sent to the youth in the Middle East is a hatred of Israel and the United States.
The message to youth in the United States is to view Israel with a jaundiced eye.
I am not hopeful that anything positive will come out of this war. Both sides are blood-thirsty and willing to turn their backs on the rest of the world. Hamas does not talk to Egypt, the major Muslim negotiator. Israel's relations with the United States are frayed.
by rmrd0000 on Mon, 08/04/2014 - 11:32pm