MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
Order today at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop
MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE by Michael Wolraich Order today at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop |
Former Trump campaign adviser George Papadopoulos' guilty plea is a must, must, must read. He confesses to colluding with Russian agents to arrange a meeting between the Russian government and the Trump campaign. One of his contacts mentions "dirt" on Hillary Clinton in the form of "thousands of emails." This was not a rogue operation. Papadopoulos acknowledges communicating about this plan with at least three unnamed individuals referred to as "Campaign Supervisor," "Senior Policy Advisor," and "High-Ranking Campaign Official."
And there may be even more that Mueller has not disclosed in the guilty plea, which begins, "These facts do not constitute all of the facts known to the parties concerning the charged offense; they are being submitted to demonstrate that sufficient facts exist that the defendant committed the offense to which he is pleading guilty."
Comments
Mueller turned Papadopoulos.The collusion is documented. The first domino has fallen.
by Michael Wolraich on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 11:50am
Seth Abramson's been talking about Papadopoulos for a while - his strange emergence and then disappearance.
by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 1:05pm
Fwiw, WaPo speculates that "High-Ranking Campaign Official" is Lewandowski and "Campaign Supervisor" is Sam Clovis, Trump's controversial nominee for Under Secretary of the USDA.
by Michael Wolraich on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 12:56pm
Yahoo News has a source claiming that high-ranker is Manafort and supervisor is Clovis. I wonder how this will play in his USDA nomination hearing. ;)
by Michael Wolraich on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 5:59pm
Abramson speculates Papadoc was wired for months, and Clovis his most likely target.
https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/925115577190010880
by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 6:19pm
Aha, now that would make everything today make sense as savvy! Re: last chance to cooperate, too, everybody else!
by artappraiser on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 6:27pm
With Sessions as Clovis' supervisor. Oops. "Southern Man, better keep your head..."
by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 6:43pm
Axios.com recommended analysis, especially the "Be Smart" section.
And I note the Tweeter-in-Chief seems confident enough about the news that he's not bothering to shut up like lawyers would advise if anything dangerous was going to happen soon.
by artappraiser on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 1:23pm
Breitbart right away early on picked up on the the same thing as Axios' "Be Smart:
…Indicted on 12 Counts Unrelated to 2016 Campaign
Nothing on 2016: there's still a long row to hoe.
I am actually thinking after reading Axios: this is to bait Trump into doing something impeachable from this day forward! As regards pardoning or firing someone else or saying something stupid....Jared is a problem...
by artappraiser on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 1:39pm
Earth to AA. Click the link and read the plea. It's all 2016. That's why I titled it "The Real Bombshell."
by Michael Wolraich on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 1:40pm
ok, so why is the first action to indict Manafort on other things? When you have this since July. And now let this out for public knowledge.That's the real question I have. It is all odd. Looks to me like they don't trust Papadopoulous to get them anything real, got to get someone else to corroborate.
by artappraiser on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 1:59pm
Yes, Kristof sees this:
Will Manafort Sing?
If so, it may mark the beginning of the unraveling of this presidency.
Runs through several "what if's"
by artappraiser on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 2:06pm
Any surprise "Lock her up" campaign was run by the guy who helped lock up Yulia Timoschenko on fake charges? Funny how Ukrainian misogyny and ols dschool patruiarchy travels - you'd almost think this was a universal trait. (just in case anyone feels sorry for Manafort)
by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 8:09pm
The real question I have is if Manafort laundered $1 million in rugs, how come you couldn't get him to pony up for a sizeable art investment. I thought NY was a chummy place, but I guess inter-borough rivalries bog things down.
As for Papadoc vs Manafort, they serve different purposes. Papa shows criminal intent directly trading with Hillary's emails and knowledge even before her campaign knew she'd been hacked, along with playing Trump's Russian errand boy. Manafort is part of the command structure and the deep ties to Russia and its international political and financial web. Manafort quit early but Gates stayed on, thus a good set of ears at Command-and-Control.
BMaz @ EmptyWheel notes the strangeness that Manafort's wife wasn't charge with the tax evasion/money laundering, as she cosigned those tax filings.
Palmer notes some interesting connects between Gates and the RNC after the convention, and possibly Priebus being some kind of mole in the White House, which would certainly be bad news for Trump. (yes, Palmer fluffs up his news tidbits, but still worth considering)
by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 2:35pm
Rug dealers infamously are own little sleazeball tribe totally separate from the antiques & art world.
For more than a century, notoriously always try to run a "ring" in every auction of rugs in every city worldwide. It is not a formalized mob in any way shape or form, it is simply a sub culture passed down from generation to generation.
Everybody at an antiques auction before the rugs go up (always at the end of the sale because they are often under the furniture) is from one world, everyone that filters in right before the rugs start is from rug world. Usually most from the first tribe leave before the rug games begin. Leaving the auctioneer alone to try to attempt to protect the few private buyers who might be so brave, or so naive, to bid against with "the rug dealers."
They will always be of this ethnic heritage if no longer citizens of same: Iranian, Arab, a smattering of assorted Caucasian "Stans", Russian, Israeli, Palestinian, Turkish, maybe maybe a French Jew or Chinese if he/she is really savvy...basically recreating a Silk Road bazaar of old every time and bringing along all the same sorts of activity that engenders.
Again, I can't stress this enough: it takes a very brave or very naive person to go up against "the rug dealers." And finally: never ever pay the asking price from a "rug dealer." When you visit one, you are entering into an eastern bazaar of old. In the antiques trade everyone would know what you mean when you say someone is "you know, a rug dealer type of guy": you can't trust him, he's from "that world."
by artappraiser on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 3:48pm
Having hopped around the Silk Road, I can sympathize.The bazaar is in the blood, not learned. Already feel Sydney wasshisname from Maltese Falcon waddling in... (hmmm, Greenstreet only made his first film at 62, finished his career only 8 years later. Stunning.)
by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 6:05pm
??? The Axios analysis is about Manafort, but this news link is about Papadopoulos. Plus Trump's tweets came before the Papadopoulos news broke. (Not that Trump necessarily listens to his lawyers.)
by Michael Wolraich on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 1:39pm
Since July turning, Mueller got nothing from Papadopoulus about 2016 Trump campaign, or if he did, he's not using it now. Axios basically is pointing out the trick now would be to "turn" Manafort about 2016 campaign, whatever comes of starting the process against Manafort. No trial on the docket for at least six months. Manafort's lawyers will work to slow things for as long as possible, standard practice. Most likely scenario: nothing happening for a long time.
by artappraiser on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 1:47pm
A. Your Axios analysis seems to have been written before the Papadopoulus news broke.
B. In his analysis of Papa's plea, another Axios analyst writes, "But unlike Paul Manafort's indictment, the charges against Papadopoulos are explicitly linked to attempts at collusion with Russia."
C. We know that Mueller got info from Papa about 2016 campaign collusion because it's all there in the guilty plea. We don't know how Mueller is exploiting the info, but I doubt that he's using it exclusively to pressure Manafort. There are three other campaign folks mentioned in the plea, and it's not clear that any of them are Manafort.
D. I make no claim as to how quickly this will roll out, only that this is big news, bigger than Manafort's indictment imho.
by Michael Wolraich on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 2:07pm
Josh at TPM agrees.
by NCD on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 2:11pm
by Michael Wolraich on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 2:49pm
I buy that, and you should be proud for pointing it out. Still, it doesn't change the general situation that this will not be a blockbuster hurting Trump unless Mueller himself explains what he's up to or someone from his circle leaks the same or someone else is indicted soon or the like. The point is that Mueller has not used the 2016 Papa doc stuff yet against anyone, has just let it be out there.
by artappraiser on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 4:26pm
I feel like we're coming at this from different angles. It's not a blockbuster because of the political impact today. (Trump is still president and will continue to be for some time.) It's a blockbuster because it foretells where this is going.
by Michael Wolraich on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 4:48pm
Yes but I am perhaps more negative than you about the possibility of this changing much of anything for the duration as to impeachment or resignation or even convincing a single congressperson to change his mind much less a single Trump supporter. Because: in most cases, a prosecutor puts a single turned guilty witness secret and puts him into witness protection in order to use him in the case. Here instead we have him uncovered as what: a liar, an admitted liar, pled guilty to lying. Can easily be smeared! Not going to change minds. Needs corraboration.
by artappraiser on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 4:57pm
You've watched too many mobster movies. :) Witness protection is only for at-risk witnesses (regardless of whether there's a plea bargain involved).
I never suggested that the whole case will rest on Papadoc's testimony. It's just that he is the first campaign insider who has come clean about collusion (that we know of). And it's not just his testimony. There are emails and probably phone records--evidence which can be used against the unnamed campaign people he communicated with. The hope will obviously be to turn more of them.
by Michael Wolraich on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 5:05pm
Also, I'm not sure what you mean when you say that Mueller has not used the 2016 Papa doc stuff against anyone. He has not used it publicly, but that doesn't mean that he hasn't used it and is not using it now. There was obviously a plea bargain, which means that Mueller finds Papa's testimony useful in building a case against someone else. How exactly he's using it, we can only speculate.
by Michael Wolraich on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 4:53pm
see above.
I also got something out of reading the 11 legal experts @ Politico that I posted downthread about "Where is Mueller headed?" Only because:they are allover the map!
One thing I am sure of: Papadopoulos is gonna be heavily smeared by the right wing media. They can easily do that without smearing Mueller.
If your end game desire is getting rid of Trump, I don't see how any of this gets near that. He is the president and has certain protections while he's in office, you have to get Congress to want him to go.
by artappraiser on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 5:03pm
Fox & Friends will smear anyone and everyone who testifies against Trump, but so what? A smear campaign doesn't hold up in court.
Honestly, I just don't get what you're trying to say. If Mueller drops the case tomorrow, and all we've got is Papadoc and Manafort and Gates, then of course Trump won't be impeached. Obviously, he would have to be implicated to be indicted or impeached, and this news doesn't implicate him. But it suggests that Mueller is building a case that could eventually implicate him.
by Michael Wolraich on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 5:14pm
Watergate didnt lead to impeachment because of journalists - it was simply grand juries moving slowly forward.
Nevertheless, things are more hyper polarized these days, so there's a political slant and entrenched stubborn reaction to everything. Mueller will likely dot all his i's, but still the various media mouths will say otherwise. Joe/Joanna sixpack will have trouble keeping up. So there's some education that needs to happen, and even then20-30% will insist it was rigged and Dems stole their presidency.
by PeraclesPlease on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 5:59pm
Email referenced in the guilty plea from Trump "campaign supervisor" calls Papadoc. the point man for Russia contacts, including contact with Russian government foreign office.
by NCD on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 1:23pm
Another tidbit (emphasis mine):
We already know something about this meeting. It was here that Trump decided to fight to the Ukraine plank in the Republican platform:
Question: Why did Donald Trump suddenly care so much about the Ukraine?
by Michael Wolraich on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 2:23pm
Russian orphans...?
by NCD on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 3:43pm
FWIW, tweeted 3 hrs. ago:
and 7 hrs. ago:
by artappraiser on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 4:03pm
Josh again http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/big-stuff-in-the-papadopolous-plea-deal
by Michael Wolraich on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 5:27pm
Getting too messy real fast without Mueller willing to be talkative (much less having talking points). Breitbart headline right now
I suspect the whole thing will be spun a thousand ways to Sunday, because it is so complex and unresolved, so that there will be zero political effect except for hardening of everyone's opinion of Trump.
One immediate effect might be more like that power people in Senate foreign relations like Corker and McCain will feel freer to force Trump admin to their will against Putin. And Trump admin will go along to look objective.
Edit to add: Here is the Politico link:
Tony Podesta stepping down from lobbying giant amid Mueller probe
Podesta announced his decision during a firm-wide meeting Monday morning and is alerting clients of his impending departure.
by artappraiser on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 4:31pm
The hope of the Republicans is to make things murky. At initial glance though, it doesn’t appear that the Podesta Group did anything illegal. Their only “crime” may have been agreeing to work with Manafort who may have lied about who was funding the project Manafort and Poseata were completing.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/amid-swirl-of-controversy-democratic-power-lobbyist-podesta-steps-down/2017/10/30/14c4bb0a-bd97-11e7-97d9-bdab5a0ab381_story.html?utm_term=.00178f9cde55
So far it doesn’t appear to be both sides do it. Not paying attention to details is how we got Trump.
by rmrd0000 on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 4:23pm
Where Is Bob Mueller Headed Next?
After charges against two Trump campaign members, and a guilty plea from a third, where will the special counsel’s investigation go from here? Eleven legal experts chart a course.
by artappraiser on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 4:32pm
The Politico article is overpromising with its title in so far as none of the participants forecast more than the obvious.
Lightfoot underlined something that struck me while reading the indictments:
Lightfoot goes on to speculate why the charge is not more cautious but misses one sort of obvious possibility:
The prosecution can prove their case.
If this is true, the threat of future indictments stops being a thing that can be managed. You will be knocked out with the first punch.
by moat on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 6:08pm
good point. and synchs with the idea that today's events are a threat to cooperate asap.
by artappraiser on Mon, 10/30/2017 - 7:21pm
CNN has that Mueller's office most definitely feared the Papadopoulos agreement being made public before today would hurt their investigation; they argued for the sealing, wanted more time:
Special counsel's office: Papadopoulos 'small part' of 'large scale investigation'
By Katelyn Polantz, CNN Updated 6:22 PM ET, Mon October 30, 2017
by artappraiser on Tue, 10/31/2017 - 12:00am
Weissman is a former top mob prosecutor, experienced at turning people state's evidence:
Andrew Weissmann, Legal Pit Bull, Is Unleashed in Inquiry
By MATT FLEGENHEIMER @ NYTimes.com, Nov. 1
Mr. Weissmann brings decades of experience prosecuting Mafia heads and white-collar crime to Robert S. Mueller III’s investigation
by artappraiser on Wed, 11/01/2017 - 2:20pm
I wonder if Weissman will be involved with inquiries of the Trump outfit itself as discussed in the New Yorker article: Business of Corruption
He certainly has the resume for the job.
by moat on Wed, 11/01/2017 - 6:29pm
I think you can take that surmise to the bank.
by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 11/01/2017 - 6:47pm
Knives out for Jared; whether the whole of this article is accurate or mostly gossip, the meme of make Jared the sacrifice is clearly being pushed in the following excerpt:
from
“You Can’t Go Any Lower”: Inside the West Wing, Trump Is Apoplectic as Allies Fear Impeachment
By Gabriel Sherman @ The Hive @ Vanity Fair.com, Nov. 1
by artappraiser on Wed, 11/01/2017 - 6:05pm
Clovis out:
Sam Clovis withdraws his nomination for USDA’s top scientist post after being linked to Russia probe
@ WaPo, 11:08 am
by artappraiser on Thu, 11/02/2017 - 1:59pm
Geez, just noticed in above, creepy name from impeachments past:
It's probably just a case of all the good lawyers already taken!
by artappraiser on Thu, 11/02/2017 - 2:02pm
White House was unaware top adviser (Clovis) testified before grand jury
By John Santucci & James Meek @ ABCNews.com, Nov 2, 2017, 5:07 PM ET
Note the last line of my excerpt:
by artappraiser on Fri, 11/03/2017 - 2:43am