MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
Order today at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop
MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE by Michael Wolraich Order today at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop |
Comments
Race is a very important factor in voting and cannot be ignored. The country is tribal. Republicans gain by keeping racial animus alive. Trump condemns black NFL players but finds kind words for torch carrying white supremacists.
by rmrd0000 on Tue, 11/28/2017 - 8:24am
"In 2012, Dravosburg backed Barack Obama over Mitt Romney 441 to 312, or 53.4 percent to 44.8 percent.
Four years later, the men and women of Dravosburg abandoned their Democratic loyalties and backed Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton, 56.3 to 41.1."
The predominantly white community of Dravosburg voted for the black guy but not the white woman. Maybe Democrats should recast their attack on Dravosburgers as sexist not racist. Do you think that would be more effective?
by HSG on Tue, 11/28/2017 - 11:07am
My take from the article was that as more minorities moved in, the more racist the voters became. I think we would have seen the same vote with Joe Biden.
by rmrd0000 on Tue, 11/28/2017 - 11:20am
I think that we try to avoid addressing the fact the a segment of white voters are racist or will cast votes for racist. There is another segment of white voters who would be offended if the racists and racist sympathizers were welcomed into the Democratic Party with open arms.
by rmrd0000 on Tue, 11/28/2017 - 3:45pm
Most of us have built-in biases and prejudices. I don't think anybody on the left is in denial about that. I think the problem some on our side have is an inability to believe that those who vote for somebody other than our preferred candidate might be motivated by any factor besides racism, sexism, or xenophobia.
by HSG on Wed, 11/29/2017 - 9:23am
Trump is a racist. I think many are in denial about the fact that his supporters are willing to vote for a racist.
Edit to add:
How would you characterize voters who supported Bull Connor or George Wallace?
by rmrd0000 on Wed, 11/29/2017 - 9:49am
First in answer to your question:
Bull Connor was a brutal racist thug. Wallace was almost as bad although he did apparently have a late in life but sincere change in sympathies. I would say that most Alabamians who voted for either Connor or Wallace were motivated largely, if not wholly, by racism.
Second here are my two questions: 1) Who on the left is in denial about the fact that Trump's supporters are willing to vote for a racist? 2) Do you believe that Trump voters were motivated solely by racism, sexism, or xenophobia and cannot be persuaded to vote for anybody for any other reason?
by HSG on Wed, 11/29/2017 - 11:19am
I have no built-in biases or prejudices - I develop them all on the fly, and discard them for others when they've outlived their usefulness.
by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 11/29/2017 - 9:38am
LOL
Edit to add:
20% of blacks in Ohio voted for GW and were labeled homophobes.
Alan Keyes and a black minister stood on stage with pedophile Roy Moore and are ridiculed.
We are told we have to tiptoe around issues when we talk about white voters do something controversial.
It looks like 17% of black males in Virginia voted for Ed Gillespie. If I condemn those black voters, I won’t hear a peep about giving them a break.
by rmrd0000 on Wed, 11/29/2017 - 9:56am
Hmmm, now you doubt my sincerity...
by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 11/29/2017 - 9:52am
I think we do better when we do not condemn voters who vote in ways that we don't like. Instead, I suggest we try to figure out areas where we agree and try to persuade them that their interests lie in voting the way we do. This method is more likely to work if we are willing to listen to their concerns with at least a somewhat open mind.
by HSG on Wed, 11/29/2017 - 11:21am
Give an example of a success.
by rmrd0000 on Wed, 11/29/2017 - 11:28am
Barack Obama: two terms; Bill Clinton: two terms. No matter the shit that the far right threw at them and they threw lots of it. Side benefit: going high when the other side goes low calms the polarization. If you happen to like the continual stress of war upsetting the whole country by all means go low, just keep pushing and tweeting culture wars while you enact legislation the majority doesn't like behind their backs. In other words: if you want continual war and stress, feed the trolls.
by artappraiser on Wed, 11/29/2017 - 3:37pm
Barack Obama received 43% of the White vote in 2008. He received 39% of the white vote in 2012.
Edit to add:
In 1992,Bill Clinton received 39%of the white vote. In 1996, Bill Clinton got 43%of the white vote.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2012/11/08/president-obama-and-the-white-vote-no-problem/?utm_term=.3c9c7cbdba1b
In 2016 Hillary got 37% of the white vote
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/09/white-voters-victory-donald-trump-exit-polls
Women voted for Hillary overwhelmingly , but white women voted for Trump.
https://qz.com/833003/election-2016-all-women-voted-overwhelmingly-for-clinton-except-the-white-ones/
What is wrong with white voters?
2nd Edit to add:
Trump is insane but maintains white support
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-veers-past-guard-rails-feeling-impervious-to-the-uproar-he-causes/2017/11/29/f96244d2-d523-11e7-b62d-d9345ced896d_story.html?utm_term=.686aad182177
Whites will most likely elect Roy Moore.
by rmrd0000 on Wed, 11/29/2017 - 11:06pm
Black Ohio voters were called homophobes after 20% of blacks voted for GW Bush. Black voters recognized a mistake. In 2016, 88% of blacks voted for Hillary. Only 8% of black voters supported Donald Trump. Why do whites differ from other groups?
http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/ohio/president
by rmrd0000 on Wed, 11/29/2017 - 11:14pm
As usual my comment is that Obama's decline from 43% of the white vote in 2008 to 39% in 2012 was
not the result of a spontaneous racism outbreak but rather completely predictable given that Obama's average 9.5% unemployment rate 09-12 was the highest for any 4 years since FDR. When you lose your job you vote for the other guy.
That 2012 overall 4% drop must have been composed of a much larger white working class % decline- still continuing- with the middle income flat lining or dropping slightly.
For our sins it coincided with the 2010 census and the consequent disgraceful gerrymandering and voter suppression by the newly elected republican majorities .One last ,and lasting , effect from the Bush/ Greenspan sub-prime recession. Followed by the final rites for the "dead" Democratic Party.
by Flavius on Thu, 11/30/2017 - 8:48am
My point is that whites don’t vote in the majority for Democrats in a national election. When Democrats fail to do outreach in black communities, they lose. Pretending that the losses are due to identity politics or cultural wars is nonsense. Neither Bill Clinton or Barack Obama got 50% of the white vote, yet both men won twice. Whites will elect Roy Moore and may re-elect racist and bigot Donald Trump. We never seriously ask why are white voters so different from other ethnic groups in their voting pattern? Blacks lost wealth and jobs, but still saw Democrats as their best option. Whites vote for people who are cutting access to healthcare. limiting access to education, and raising taxes on the poor and middle class. Why? Instead of addressing this question and possible solutions, we are told to avoid culture wars and identity politics. alienating the base that supports the Democratic Party.
by rmrd0000 on Thu, 11/30/2017 - 9:21am
I agree we should address that question. Simply reviewing the data by state might tell us a lot-either confirming our preconceptions or conversely revealing that some of them are prejudices.
by Flavius on Thu, 11/30/2017 - 10:18pm
Agreed, we need to figure out the 17% of black male voters who supported Gillespie as well as why white voters are so different.
by rmrd0000 on Thu, 11/30/2017 - 10:41pm
The most popular politician in America is spending the week in Trump country "trying to persuade them that their interests lie in voting the way we do", as he calls the GOP tax plan a giveaway to the rich, and a threat to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.
Mitch McConnell, whose state is on Bernie's tour, and the GOP, are pushing on, (...falsely..?) confident their voters will buy the scam and see it as a win against the elites.
by NCD on Wed, 11/29/2017 - 2:41pm
Bernie Sanders is going to do white outreach and no one has a problem. Mention that black voters need outreach and I am told they need to fend for themselves. Sanders is going after voters who don’t vote their interests. Black voters who Are unenthusiastic because they are taken for granted are dismissed. We are advised that the Democratic Party should not be involved in culture wars. The Democratic base is multicultural. Republicans are bigots who will make culture an issue. Culture award R Us is the basis of the modern Democratic Party. Ignore ethnic groups and lose elections.
We are given myths of how well Jesse Jackson, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama did with white voters. The peak percent of the white vote was 12% for Jackson and 43% for Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. Black voters gave each man overwhelming support. Hillary Clinton did extremely well among women except for white women. When it is suggested that Democratic candidates avoid culture wars, it is a slap in the face of the base of the party. Nationally, whites do not vote for the Democratic Party.
In Georgia, Jon Ossoff ignored black voters and lost. In Virginia, volunteers knocked on the doors in black neighborhoods and Northam won. The party has to do massive outreach to minority voters. The party has to engage in the culture wars.
Yesterday, the man occupying the White House sent out tweets that originated with a racist organization in Britain known as “Britain First”. The woman who leads the ground has been arrested for violence against minorities. One member stabbed a pro- immigration of Parliament to death. The tweets showed fake crimes allegedly committed by Muslim. White voters who get their news from wingnut sources are susceptible to believing these tweets. Muslim lives are put at risk. I expect most a Republicans to remain silent. Democrats have to condemn the guy in the White House.
If you are not a member of an ethnic minority, especially a minority with darker skin, you might be able to ignore the culture wars. If you are an ethnic minority with darker skin, you are in the culture war. If the Democratic Party turns from culture wars, they are turning from ethnic minorities. It is a recipe for losses on mass scale. A majority of white voters nationally do note vote for the Democratic Party.
I wish Bernie Sanders well in his quest.
by rmrd0000 on Thu, 11/30/2017 - 8:17am
In Alabama, Roy Moore will win the majority of the white vote. White voters will vote against their own self interests. The only rode to victory is Doug Jones receiving greater than 90% of the black vote and getting a paltry 35% of the white vote.I hope both groups don’t disappoint, but the bar for Alabama white voters is very low,
by rmrd0000 on Thu, 11/30/2017 - 8:30am
Our leading "reach out to the white working class, talk with them about their economic anger and they'll vote with us" hasn't chimed in on Bernie's thus far futile red state tour.
From comment at WaPo:
by NCD on Thu, 11/30/2017 - 12:30pm
When I point out that 17% of black males in Virginia supported Gillespie and suggest homophobia (or possibly anti-immigration sentiment) played a role, there is no problem. Suggest racial bias as a problem among white voters and there is pushback. Democrats have a winning group of voters. The party is not always wise in how it goes about energizing it’s base. Whites, blacks, Latinos and Asians are tired of the GOP. Rally those voters and we win. Keep going after white voters who have turned against the party and we lose.It is simply how to get the best return on investment.
by rmrd0000 on Thu, 11/30/2017 - 1:14pm
Seems to me that much discussion on this thread is ignoring the main point of Edsall's piece on how Trump won, most pointedly in this excerpt and graph. Trump won via electoral college by targeting small towns and suburbs.
These are not communities where blacks or other minorities are a majority so they cannot affect the results in those areas without some white votes to go along with them. You can have 100% turnout for a Dem presidential candidate by "the black community" in a community that is largely of color, and this will not stop a Trump. It's because these small partly xenophobic or partly racist communities have a larger influence than they should have on the presidential race. Turnout of more black voters from largely black communities or more immigrants from a largely immigrant community will not affect the presidential race a whit, not without some of these whiter districts:
In the end, it's the same thing as for most blue staters: turnout in presidential doesn't really count for much.
As for the long term prognosis: continual integration of ghetto communities of whites, blacks or inbetween. That means, along with Indian or Mexican or Khmer immigrants coming to a small white town near you, BUT ALSO not bitching about those gentrifying white lesbians who move into the black 'hood, those are the kind of things that are going to beat the gerrymandering problem. As is the continual growth of the demographic of mixed race citizens who are so mixed that they no longer identify with a single racial or ethnic identity group. Give up the physically-based tribalism and a Trump can't play his physically-based culture wars games. (And then we'll move on to real genuine economics and class based games! Education uber alles. Once robotization really gets moving, I'm willing to bet on uneducated blacks and whites with solidarity against the educated elites like we've never seen before. H.G. Wells Eloi and Morlocks finally come to fruition.)
That's my view of it. Just offering an interpretation, take it or leave it. Not interesting in debating it. Those interested in debating it should take it up with Edsall and the political scientists he quotes.
by artappraiser on Thu, 11/30/2017 - 8:22pm
We get that. The earth continues to revolve.
by rmrd0000 on Thu, 11/30/2017 - 9:44pm
P.S. Comes to mind that one could also verify the flip side of this by looking at where GOP concentrated voter suppression efforts targeted at people of color, those are the swing areas. If they were smart GOP operatives, that is, not just dummy racists going on racism alone. If they are dummy racists they wouldn't care if they targeted an area where regardless how many come to vote, it still only goes Dem.
And also that it's not just lily white people who vote swing, Reagan Dem style. Puerto Ricans do too. And lots of them just move to FL, speaking of changing "districts" by people movement, or not as the case may be
by artappraiser on Thu, 11/30/2017 - 9:36pm
So you debate with yourself?
Edit to add:
Ever get it wrong when you debate yourself?
by rmrd0000 on Thu, 11/30/2017 - 9:56pm
Debating yourself requires no effort and merely confirms what you already believe.
Debating allows one to realize that voter suppression may explain the Hillary Clinton loss in Wisconsin
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/10/voter-suppression-wisconsin-election-2016/
But voter suppression does not fully explain losses in other states.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/11/13597452/voter-suppression-clinton-trump-2016.
(added link after posting. I couldn’t remember where a read the article)
Hillary lost the ground game. She did not focus on outreach.
http://www.progressivepolicy.org/blog/clinton-lost-ground-game-view-trenches/
Community outreach in African-American neighborhoods paled in comparison to 2008 and 2012
If you debate yourself and make jokes about racists and focus just on voter suppression, you may miss the lack of community outreach.
But when you debate yourself, you have all the answers. Just like some had on the position of Camille Paglia.
by rmrd0000 on Thu, 11/30/2017 - 10:51pm
There's a bit of spin in your link but it's essentially correct. Hispanics are not democrats natural allies. They only vote democrat because of republican racism and even than a much higher rate than other minorities. Absent republican racism a majority would vote republican. They are more religious than other ethnicities. They are less likely to support abortion rights. By every metric they are less educated than any other group in America.
by ocean-kat on Thu, 11/30/2017 - 10:47pm
Interesting. We could have guessed that inhabitants of a ghetto vote similarly. This supports that with respect to "whites". Maybe true for all groups: Hasids, Mexican-americans, LA Koreans. Maybe not.
Or at least true at some times.
Cause and effect might be difficult entangle purely from the data.. To what extent is a locality vote uniformly because individuals are conforming with their neighbors or conversely because they moved there in order to be with people who thought like them?
I recall James Michael Curley being elected when, deservedly, in jail. Perhaps just to stick a finger in the eye of the Cabots and Lowells.
Obviously professionals know the answer in some cases . Part of Trumps success was due to his digital people being better than Hillary's. Which may have been a Hillary-specific problem. Brad Delong who was supposed to run the numbers for Hillarycare became disenchanted with her executive skills.
by Flavius on Thu, 11/30/2017 - 10:51pm