Galaxy Brain (but kind of serious): If this happens, it will be the best and most important victory for wokeness... https://t.co/y217Ueo3L0

— Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) September 2, 2021

I think it's really curious that it's an influx of "Latino and Asian voters". Really makes you wonder what weird pieties are being referenced that black voters aren't affected by this supposed exodus.

— Dr. Mansa Keita (@rasmansa) September 2, 2021

I think Black and Asian voters had similar, though modest shifts to the GOP in 2020? Not sure though. @davidshor will know.

— Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) September 3, 2021

No, black votes didn't shift, though that was a frequent early talking point.

I am jesting though in acting like I don't suspect something else in the "weird pieties". There are some old fashioned ideas I suspect at play, with modern language though ("CRT"). pic.twitter.com/OxquqBBalx

— Dr. Mansa Keita (@rasmansa) September 3, 2021

Huh. OK, thought there was a small shift. Did Asian voters shift at all?

— Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) September 3, 2021

There's unfortunately no definitive answer to some of these questions, but Catalyst's data is the best I think and it shows all non-white groups shifting at least a little toward Trump. https://t.co/CpZioYMc2v pic.twitter.com/BFLM5OiI2E

— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) September 3, 2021

Pew's numbers are a little different though pic.twitter.com/Dgtar27EKp

— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) September 3, 2021

Got it. So basically, no Asian shift, a substantial Latino shift, and possibly some gender polarization among Black voters.

— Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) September 3, 2021

Asians are something folks disagree on. Vietnamese/Korean neighborhoods for example clearly swung toward Trump.

Black women swung more toward Trump than Black men (though that's true for all racial groups and the gender split was more even for black voters than other groups).

— (((David Shor))) (@davidshor) September 3, 2021

Big picture the main story for the non-white decline is the same forces that are driving the white vote: education polarization and ideological polarization, which are closely related because ideology is so correlated to education. pic.twitter.com/OgyzIXZSLC

— (((David Shor))) (@davidshor) September 3, 2021

"If a politician or activist ignores the public, Shor told me, it is easy for them to think “we’re so progressive, we’re so amazing”. But what they are really doing is “privileging the concerns of rich, educated people”." https://t.co/6GhMUmU7Qp

— Peter Moskos (@PeterMoskos) September 3, 2021

"Do you think the Democratic Party should move more to the left and embrace more liberal policies, move more to the center and embrace more moderate policies, or ... stay where it is?"

White Dems: 39 move to center, 32 move to left
Black Dems: 41 move to center, 23 move to left

— Will Saletan (@saletan) September 4, 2021

Full data (among Democrats):

All: 40 move to center, 29 move to left, 31 stay
White: 39 move to center, 32 move to left, 29 stay
Hispanic: 39 move to center, 29 move to left, 32 stay
Black: 41 move to center, 23 move to left, 36 stay

Source: https://t.co/qVrGsGhjSn

— Will Saletan (@saletan) September 4, 2021

Same poll: Black voters support "the Biden administration passing legislation to invest in things like paid leave, public education, and an expansion of Medicare that includes dental and vision benefits," 87-6. Dem voters support it 91-3.

Breakdowns by (party x race) not shown.

— Will Saletan (@saletan) September 4, 2021