MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
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Hits of the Day
Arab League Endorses No-Flight Zone Over Libya
By artappraiser on Sat, 03/12/2011 - 1:28pm |By Ethan Bronner and Kareen Fahim, New York Times, March 12, 2011
CAIRO — The Arab League endorsed a no-flight zone over Libya on Saturday in an effort to end the bloody three-week conflict there. The foreign minister of Oman, Youssef bin Alawi bin Abdullah, said that Arab leaders meeting in Cairo had voted unanimously to ask the United Nations Security Council to impose a no-flight zone over Libya.
“What is happening now to the Libyan people poses a threat to the security and stability of Arab states,” Mr. bin Abdullah said before the vote, according to Reuters. “If the Arab League does not take responsibility to prevent a downward spiral, that could lead to internal fighting or unwanted foreign intervention.”....
Note: This is very significant news and might mean a change in the U.S. and German attitude about establishing a no-fly-zone. See my past news thread here NATO on Libya: Mimimal Intervention 'Victory' for US for background from recent days.
URL:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/13/world/middleeast/13libya.html
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Comments
The Arab League is always so willing to let the US save them from their own Arab brothers and fellow despots.
Don't Saudi Arabia and Egypt have a big enough Air Force to put a check of the Colonel? Benghazi is right next door to Egypt and their Air Force is not currently employed. I think even a few big bombs on his bunker in Tripoli would extinguish the Colonel's eagerness to slaughter his own people.
by NCD on Sat, 03/12/2011 - 7:11pm
AA, did you see the reference in the Times' article to opposition to the no-fly zone by Syria and Algeria:
I have no idea whether a no-fly zone will prevent the carnage we're hearing about in Libya, but I find the Algerian and Syrian position to be absolutely incredible, i.e. that the region will be destabilized by a no-fly zone authorized by the Arab League. I don't know much about Algeria's internal situation, but I would bet that Vogue's favorite dictator in Syria is probably thinking more about himself than he is the rebels in Libya, and the Arab street throughout the region.
by Bruce Levine on Sat, 03/12/2011 - 7:34pm
Of course Algeria and Syria are worried about any precedent for foreign intervention in their own countries, Bruce. (Algeria has an even more active insurgency than Syria.) At least, after voicing their objections, they let the motion pass.
The African Union is even more resistant to the idea of no-fly zones -- again for obvious reasons. I'd be very surprised if the UN Security Council authorizes a no-fly zone, though it's probably the only thing that could tip the balance in favor of the rebels. And prevent what's shaping up as a bloodbath.
by acanuck on Sat, 03/12/2011 - 11:48pm
Point taken acanuck. The precedent for foreign intervention is something any country should be concerned about. On the other hand, the other nations in the Arab League presumably share the same concern and came out on the side of the no-fly zone. In any event, I just don't know if the no-fly zone would make a difference at this point. One can only imagine what's in store for the rebels and anyone perceived as their supporters after the shooting stops.
by Bruce Levine on Sun, 03/13/2011 - 8:30am
With Gaddafi's forces regrouped and on the move, I too doubt a no-fly zone would stop them. The one force that could quickly step in, and turn the tide, is the massive Egyptian army. They would need an Arab League mandate to do so, with the justification being to prevent the slaughter that would ensue if Qaddafi triumphs. I could even see them open to such action, since it would cement their popularity even further with Egypt's pro-democracy movement.
But it would definitely take a green light from the Arab League. Maybe Algeria and Syria could be persuaded to go along, on grounds that Arabs policing their own region is so much better than having some European or western power (like say, France) intervene. Clearly someone has to intervene or the rebels are sitting ducks. Under no circumstances, however, should the U.S. even think about playing that role.
by acanuck on Sun, 03/13/2011 - 7:03pm
I too doubt a no-fly zone would stop them
Recent developments indicate it would be basically symbolic, "for show" as they say. Because it won't stop things like helicopters and it won't stop any of the techniques Gaddafi's using now successfully. From a lot of what I've been reading, I sense that's why Gates is cranky about it, he doesn't want to end up using actual resources for a "for show" program.
From what I've been reading, I do think a lot of the rebels want it, and the few photos of signs saying they don't are being overplayed in the liberal blogosphere. They want it as a sign of international support, to put money where mouth is about freedom and dictators, that the international community is being self serving only.
However, one has to look at the Saddam example. Wasn't the coalition basically doing that "for show," too? It was unlikely he was going to use his airforce to bomb Kurds. It just gave that area psychological protection.
It's quite possible that the Arab League was only playing the "all cards on the table" game like everyone else.
And overall it must be kept in perspective that the dictator is a loony bird where traditonal pyschology will not work.
by artappraiser on Mon, 03/14/2011 - 6:59pm
Algerian and Syrian position
Cavaet: I'm far from an expert on this area of the world. You probably know more than me.
The standard cynical explanation would be the mean tough dictators are all for an isolationist standard of sovereignity because it means no meddling in dictatorships.
But there's a problem with that--they are all basically dictators, and they are not supporting each other.
I would like to suggest something else going on here as well. Syria and Algeria are basically very ancient countries with deep nationalist cultural feelings among the populace (like Egypt as well.) The gulf oil states are modern creations, more Islamic and tribal in past culture than anything else. What is the basis of their culture is their vision of an Arab if not international ummah? They care less about nation states than they do about their fellow Muslims in a place like Libya? To Saudis, the Libyans are brother Muslims, to Syria and Algeria the Libyans are foreigners who are also Muslims?
Not for nothing is King Abdullah referred to in the Saudi media as The Custodian of The Two Holy Mosques. Haven't checked it out but I wouldn't be surprised to find there's some fatwas out from state favored imams calling Gaddafi kafir or apostate or some such.
Edit to add:
See the Saudi "occupation" of Bahrain news, which I did not know about when I wrote the above.
Also I forgot to make this point: Isn't it kind of loony on its face for Syria to argue that the status quo makes for "stability." Arguing sovereignity is at least logical; isolationism, letting what happens happen, is logical, too. Saying leaving things to sort themselves out means stability strikes me as kind of delusional. Not without genocidal level action does a Libya with Ghaddifi still in power stay anything near what one could call "stable." But that doesn't surprise me coming from al-Assad, he does seem to have a similar "the people love me" delusion.
by artappraiser on Mon, 03/14/2011 - 9:08pm
A follow up on that mystery flight of Libyan envoy to Egypt story. Cavaet: it's an anonymous Libyan diplomatic source:
by artappraiser on Mon, 03/14/2011 - 7:05pm
Ian Buruma op-ed:
by artappraiser on Tue, 03/15/2011 - 4:10am