1988-2008 Presidential Election Analytics: Unadjusted State and National Exit Polls

    By Richard Charnin on Fri, 05/25/2012 - 10:17am |

     

    This workbook contains a comparative analysis of unadjusted state exit polls and recorded votes for the 1988-2008 Presidential Elections. 
     
     
    The data source is the Roper website.
     
    Unadjusted exit poll data reflect actual samples. Vote shares have closely matched the corresponding True Vote Model, which calculates feasible estimates of returning and new voters. But exit poll demographics displayed in the mainstream media are always forced to match the recorded vote by "adjusting" the category crosstab weightings and/or vote shares. Therefore, "final" exit polls do not reflect actual voter response, but merely parrot the recorded (fraudulent) vote..The fraud factor is assumed to be zero in the final published polls.
     
    To force State and National Exit Polls to match the recorded vote, demographic category weights and/or vote shares must be adjusted.
     
    In 2004, Bush won the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%. But there was an average 6.5% (WPE) discrepancy, indicating that Kerry won by 51.5-47.2%. The exit pollsters suggested the following hypothesis to explain the difference: they said (without a shred of evidence) that there were 56 Kerry responders for every 50 Bush responders. Thus the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis was born. 
     
    The pollsters applied their unsupported hypothesis to the National Exit Poll in order to force it to match the recorded vote. They presumably adjusted for the 6.5% WPE by indicating that 43% of the 2004 electorate were returning Bush voters and 37% were returning Gore voters. The adjusted returning voter mix meant that there were 52.6 million returning Bush voters (43% of 122.3 million recorded). 
     
    But 52.6 million was an impossible statistic; it implied a 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters. Bush only had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died prior to the 2004 election and one million did not return to vote. Therefore, no more than 47 million Bush 2000 voters (38.4% of the 122.3 million) could have returned. There had to be 5.6 million PHANTOM BUSH VOTERS. 
     
     Kerry led the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.6%. He led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%. 
     
    Therefore, since the National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible number of returning Bush voters, the recorded vote must  have been impossible. Simple mathematics proves election fraud.
     
    The True Vote Model (TVM) indicated that Kerry had 53.6%. Why the difference between the TVM and the unadjusted state and national exit polls? The exit pollsters apparently designed their 2004 sample based on the bogus 2000 recorded vote which indicated that Gore won by just 540,000 votes (48.4-47.9%). On the other hand, the TVM uses a feasible estimate of returning voters from the prior election. Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls by 50.8-44.5%; he won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%. 
     
    In 2008 Obama led the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents)  by 58.0-40.5%. He led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by 61.0-37.2%. As usual, the NEP was forced to match the recorded vote (Obama by 52.9-45.6%).
     
    Why the discrepancy? The National Exit Poll was forced to match the bogus recorded vote by indicating that returning Bush and Kerry voters comprised 46% and 37%, respectively, of the electorate. The pollsters implied that there were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. But Kerry won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 6 million votes and the True Vote Model by 10 million.
     
    The following examples illustrate how the exit pollsters rigged the Final 2004 National Exit Poll demographic crosstabs to force them to match the recorded vote.
     
    Bush Approval
    The pollsters had to inflate Bush's pre-election approval rating by a full 5% in order to force a match to the recorded vote - and perpetuate the fraud. Bush had 50.3% approval in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate, but just 48% approval in 11 final pre-election polls. Therefore, the unadjusted exit polls may have understated Kerry's True Vote by 2%. In order to force the Final National Exit Poll to match  the recorded vote, the exit pollsters had to increase Bush approval to 53%, a full 5% over the 48% average of 11 pre-election polls. If Bush's true approval was 48%, that means Kerry had 53.6% - matching the True Vote Model. 
     
    Party-ID
    In order to force a match the recorded vote, the pollsters had to "adjust" the state exit poll Dem/Rep Party-ID split from 38.8/35.1% to 37/37% in the Final National Exit Poll. 
     
    There was a near-perfect 0.99 correlation between Bush's unadjusted state exit poll shares and approval ratings and a 0.93 correlation between his shares and Republican Party-ID. 
     
    The True Vote Model (TVM) is based on Census votes cast, mortality, prior election voter turnout and National Exit Poll vote shares. The TVM closely matched the exit polls in each election. In 2008, it was within 0.1% of Obama's 58.0% unadjusted exit poll share.
     
    The Democrats led the 1988-2008 vote shares measured by...
    1) recorded vote: 47.9-45.9%
    2) unadjusted exit poll: 51.8-41.6%
    3) True Vote Model (methods 2-3): 51.6-42.9%
    4) True Vote Model (method 4): 53.0-41.0%
    5) Exit Pollster (WPE/IMS) method: 50.8-43.1%
     
    The Democrats won the exit poll and lost the recorded vote in the following states:
    1988: CA IL MD MI NM PA VT (Dukakis won the unadjusted Nat Exit Poll 50-49%)
    1992: AK AL AZ FL IN MS NC OK TX VA
    1996: AK AL CO GA ID IN MS MT NC ND SC SD VA
    2000: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC TN TX VA (Gore needed just ONE state to win)
    2004: CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA (Kerry would have won if he carried FL or OH)
    2008: AL AK AZ GA MO MT NE
     

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    by Flavius on Wed, 05/30/2012 - 11:46am

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