538 is no more

    I've been posting 538's daily forecast for the House and Senate election.

    It's aged out of From the Readers so I'll stop.

    What I've learned is that nothing has changed much during that week of ten days: 538 calculates the dems

    will carry the House and not the Senate. By about  they would have done when I started.

    I'll post it again on Election eve.



    I think the Democrats will take the House and lose the Senate. Democrats may pick up some Governorships. I early voted. I can’t stress about what the rest of the country does. Personally, I think Republicans are scum. I work with Republicans and I’m cordial. I don’t trust them. If Democrats lose every race, I’ll start working on getting people out in 2020. I have enough family and friend support to get me through either way.

    I caught snippets of Trump saying that the wants to tell the truth and sometimes will tell the truth. There was another interview where he said that he didn’t care if his rhetoric against his opponents resulted in violence because the harsh rhetoric is how he won. I see the cheering.crowds at his rallies chanting “Lock her up”. Those are the deplorables. I acknowledge their existence. I encourage people to became engaged in community projects and to vote.

    I realize that a portion of the population is not on my side and wants me gone. I place my hope in the rest of the population. I rely on family, friends, and faith. Life is good.


    Seems to me you're  mostly right.  But every now and then ,stuck in the snow  one of the deplor neighbors comes out in  slippers to help push so I have to ​take that into account too.

    I gave a 50th anniversary gift to a Conservative couple. We are cordial. However, I realize that they would have no problem with voting for a voter ID laws that excluded common forms of ID used by black people. I am willing to bet a significant number, if not a majority, of workers had civil interactions with coworkers who supported issues the other considered abhorrent. 


    I've never met a perfect person. 

     And on the specific issue of the rights of blacks I recall the moment  in my childhood  when I first  started to realize that people were mixtures of good and bad. When someone I greatly respected , removed  his cigar from his mouth, paused and said " I often think the negroes were better off under slavery."

    I'll leave it at that.

    I can look at the Trump rallies and I see people who demonize the poor. They are OK with kidnapping babies. Martin Luther King Jr. was openly critical of people who were silent when evil was around them. That is what I see when a look at the smiling faces at Trump rallies and when I hear the excuses for Trump by my Conservative coworkers. 

    I think we will get the House. If we don’t, we start working on 2020. If we win the House, we start working on 2020.

    Flavius, one image that remains with me is of Angela Rye brought to tears during a panel on CNN. Rye was frustrated by the normalization of racism under Trump. The frustration was deepened by the fact that she was often accused of being a racist for pointing out racism. I felt Rye’s pain. It took a lot not to hate the white female Conservative, Allidin Stewart, who was on the panel with Rye. Stewart showed zero empathy. She only cared that Trump was putting her policies in places. I quickly realized that there is no point in hating Stewart. The best option was to empathize with Rye, and double efforts to get people to volunteer and to vote.


    I add Allison Stewart to the people I don’t trust. I continue to GOTV. I’ll be taking some “stragglers” to the polls on Tuesday. via a borrowed van.

    Good thinking.  

    I was beaten up by 3 black kids. According to our code I tried to hide it but my family saw  some blood and raised hell . The black kids  apologized and I said , sure.  Don't know about the other two but one of them  stayed and said "I don't know why I did it" and I completely believed him. Still do.

    I was beaten up by 3 white kids . No one apologized but I got some satisfaction that I learned they were afraid to come to town because they were afraid of me.

    Time passed .I was looking for a home for my son with autism  being forced out of a program because he was found  too unlikely to  improve   justifying  blocking some one  with a better chance .  Money was  very tight but I found a guy with piper cub to fly us two to a possible  new location   The plane showed up, the pilot , one of the white kids from 10 years ago.  ( He wasn't afraid of me any more.) The flight was  not the greatest and the new  possible home said no , but I made a friend. 

    And  I could tell you about the time I was beaten up by a kid on his way to win the "Golden  Gloves"  but it would be  too repetitive. I can say I rooted for him during the competition.


    Thank you mr. wisdom. Some people are uncouth, some people are mean, some people are bad,  go figure.

    Some people can get eyeballs and clicks from stoking that

    On the latter, sharing some local reporting insight with you from Lohud.com. I think you'll enjoy it. I know you'll get it, I am sure. The whole Proud Boys thing, this not exactly what it seems to be as portrayed in the national media. More kinda like "let's see if we can make some money here ginning up this white guy thing, to support the wife (Hillary voter) and kids in a style they've become accustomed to":

    Proud Boys founder Gavin McInnes and Trump critic Amy Siskind come face-to-face

    By Gabriel Rom and Jorge Fitz-Gibbon, Rockland/Westchester Journal News Published 5:01 p.m. ET Oct. 30, 2018 | Updated 7:45 a.m. ET Oct. 31, 2018

    MAMARONECK - Liberal author and Trump critic Amy Siskind called the cops when conservative agitator and Proud Boys founderGavin McInnes showed up at her door Monday night, telling police there were "unwanted parties on her property." 

    McInnes, who lives in neighboring Larchmont, maintained it was an attempt at a neighborly act of reconciliation that ended with an overreaction by Siskind. 

    “That’s the general pattern here, is a total lack of communication, where rumor and innuendo can roam wild in the streets," he said. 

    The incident punctuated a tense feud that flared up between the two pundits, stemming from Siskind's call this week for an "anti-hate" vigil to let McInnes know "that we are inclusive and repudiate hate."

    She called it "disturbing" that he lived locally, but later softened her stance. At least one Facebook post was deleted late Monday after Siskind, who has more than 400,000 followers on Facebook and Twitter, was contacted by a reporter.

    McInnes fired back Tuesday, and said the people at Siskind's door were hardly intimidating — they were his family.

    “Of these four people, three of them are little kids and one was holding his teddy bear," he said. "The pipe dream was that she opened the door and my wife would say, ‘Look, let’s talk about this. I’m a Hillary supporter. Why are you putting my beautiful children in danger?’ This was not about intimidation and I was very open with everyone.” 

    He said he was “standing behind them with my hands behind my back.” 

    Siskind did not respond to an email, nor did her lawyer return calls Tuesday.

    McInnes, who has referred to himself as a "western chauvinist," is a right-wing commentator and co-founder of Vice Media. He also founded the Proud Boys, a far-right organization that the Southern Poverty Law Center classifies as a hate group — a tag that McInnes vehemently refutes. 

    Siskind, an outspoken critic of President Donald Trump, has traveled the country promoting her book “The List: A Week-by-Week Reckoning of Trump’s First Year."

    The flap between the two was prompted by a report in The Journal News/lohud on Monday about Siskind's call for a vigil. The article noted that McInnes lives in Larchmont, and that Siskind sought to highlight that fact with a vigil.

    Both McInnes and Siskind have requested that the article be removed. 

    On Tuesday, Mamaroneck police would not provide a copy of the police report of the Monday-night incident. The Journal News/lohud filed a state Freedom of Information Law request for the report.

    McInnes said the incident was the latest example of the intolerance his family has been subjected to since moving to the Sound Shore community in 2016. 

    “I’m all about discussion, but this community so far has been nothing but innuendo," he said. “A family has one Trump supporter in it and they’re pariahs in this community, and I don’t understand why. And especially when it’s under the guise of inclusiveness.” 

    Meanwhile, vigils are planned in Larchmont, and possibly in Mamaroneck, in remembrance of Saturday's attack that left 11 dead at a Pittsburgh synagogue. 

    Mamaroneck Village Manager Daniel Sarnoff said Siskind has contacted the village over a planned vigil tentatively scheduled for Thursday evening at Harbor Island Park. The event would include faith leaders from throughout the community. 

    "I don’t know enough information about the situation to make a comment at this time," Mayor Thomas Murphy said Tuesday.

    In addition, the Larchmont "Candlelight Vigil for Peace and Tolerance" is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. Thursday at Constitution Park. 

    "Our event is completely separate," said Larchmont Mayor Lorraine Walsh. "Our event is a community-based peaceful vigil to express our sorrow and upset over what took place this weekend and the general tone of anti-Semitism and hate speech in the USA. It's going to be a peaceful event." 

    I did a little googling after reading that.

    It appears that this Amy Siskind has a lot invested in selling her new anti-Trump book. So it's very important to her to make sure that McInness remains a sworn vicious enemy!

    Found McInness actually was a guest on an LA radio show My Wife Hates Me, Carville/Matalin type stuff in comedy form, so I have no doubt that the story about his wife being a Hillary supporter is true. The variety of his enterpreneurial activities mentioned in the article sort of rounds that out.

    As does this little public photo op.

    Still scum of the earth, maybe, but not for the ideological reasons one might first think.

    Then I'll throw in a pointer to this recent Politico piece which found much of the Trump rally fan base has fallen to the young angry males acting out.

    Which brings us back to your comment about boys beating other boys up.


    Let's hope 538 is right on the House swing districts because this "what if" alternative scenario is extremely ugly:

    Flipside: A paltry GOP majority means moderates are mostly swept out and hardliners survive. Which means the Freedom Caucus is a larger share of the caucus and has more power to pick a Speaker that reflects its preferences. https://t.co/EVt1FknI96

    — Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) November 2, 2018

    I never gotten what lefties don't get about how important swing districts are to making this a livable country. Often riling the middle with extremism gets you: less than nothing. Let's hope the right is riling them plenty right now.

    NYTimes currently has a headline story on related:

    Trump’s Nationalism Is Breaking Point for Some Suburban Voters

    • Educated, prosperous white people repelled by President Trump’s strident language on race and gender are turning away from the Republican Party.
    • Rather than seeking to coax these voters back, Mr. Trump appears to have all but written them off in the final days of the campaign.

    1h ago

    Sorta synchs nicely with the article about the Proud Boys's founder whining about his family being treated as pariah in Westchester/Rockland land, don't it?

    Fox host: Oprah is going to get Stacey Abrams elected  (my underlining on white suburban voters)

    By Joe Concha @ TheHill.com, Nov. 1

    Fox News co-host Dagen McDowell said Thursday that Oprah Winfrey's campaign efforts for Democratic Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams are "going to get that woman elected," making Abrams the first black female governor in the country.

    Winfrey, stumping for Abrams in Marietta, Ga., on Thursday, cheered "everybody gets a vote!" as rallygoers chanted along with her. A clip of the exchange was played heavily across cable news on Thursday.

    “A lot of celebrities can raise money for you if you are running for political office. Oprah Winfrey has a spiritual connection with so much of this country, and it was built over years and years of doing that talk show," McDowell said on Fox's "Outnumbered."

    "I said, when we were watching it, 'If that women can get folks to eat pizza with a cauliflower crust on it, she is going to get that woman elected the first black female governor.’ She took people to church," McDowell added.

    Juan Williams, serving as a guest co-host on "Outnumbered" Thursday, said Winfrey is key in reaching white suburban voters who will play a significant role in deciding the midterm elections.

    "I think what you are seeing here now is Democrats — especially in so many of these suburban House districts where Trump carried it, or it was close — are saying, ‘We are counting on those white suburban women this time, especially in the aftermath of all the trouble we have seen with the violence, to say we want a check on Trump,' " said Williams, who also serves as an opinion contributor for The Hill. "I think that’s what you are hearing from Oprah.” [....]


    P.S. Oprah is registered as an Independent and said it straight out stumping for Abrams, talking anti-partisan, which was very very smart of her to do, just ups the power of the influence she already has with many women as a straight, fair and not overly politically correct person:

    Oprah: "I've earned the right to think for myself and to vote for myself, and that's why I am a registered independent - because I don't want any party and any kind of partisan influence telling me what decisions I get to make for myself." https://t.co/uzBkvETRYr pic.twitter.com/ISAuUOkmgu

    — The Hill (@thehill) November 2, 2018

    It's not just a question of whether 538 is right about the swingers. He just obtains the poll results and day after day  they're telling the same story : we'll have the House and McConnell will run the other one.

    10/31    Harris interactive         Nelson 46       Scott    47                                                                                    .............Trafalcar                                  49                    47                                                                                         

    10/29     Cygnal                                    50                    48                                                                                     .............Suffolk Univ                            45                    43                                                                                   

    10/26      You Gov                                 46                    46                                                                                    ...............Siena                                      50                    38  and                                                                                   .............................................................48                    44 

     10/23      Gravis Mktg                           49                    45                                                                                       ...............Saint Leo Univ                       47                    38

    Gillum may help Bill Nelson win.


    as news and politics junkies, we all love horse race coverage, but here's a guilty reminder for us all of the damage that does:

    Don't know what the answer is. I'm not going to stop liking both kinds of news. The horse race stuff has a much bigger audience, that's for sure. People love gaming. And passionate partisans of course are exceptionally interested. Then, since the blogosphere era, everyone wants to prove they could do better talking points and war room tactics than the pros (same as like: if I was the coach for the Lakers, they would be winning.)

    When he visited me in London I took my father to the races..

    He loved the  fact that after the  finish - at the other side of  the track -the book makers  ,standing on step ladders, continued  taking bets until the track declared the official result..

    On Texas Senate, interesting that the "contrarian conservative" pundit asks:

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