Bernie, older & wiser

    I'm pleased that Bernie's finally clueing in on how the game's played. He's discovered that Hillary's wrapping herself around Obama because that endears her to black voters, who make up a large core of the Democratic vote. He's also discovering that it's not so easy for him to do the same because she started courting the Big O 8 years ago, something an Independent might be loathe to do. And taking onboard one of Obama's fiercest black critics, Cornel West? Not likely to help, since he's about as popular with the black community these days as George Zimmerman. Bernie did hire a BLM member as spokesperson. But it's simply not the same thing.

    My friend used to tell me, "to get where I am, I had to kiss a lot of ass - right on the mouth". He didn't say how much tongue was involved, but I figure enough - somehow he knew how to climb the ladder and survive, distasteful as it might be.

    Bernie seems puzzled that his reasonable criticism of Obama has drawn such furor - but again, that's how the game is played. There's no fine-tuning this mess. Just as Hillary speaking to Goldman Sachs is evil or not, criticizing Obama is either speaking truth to power or beyond the pale, an attack. In the big leagues, compromise is who you do business with, not what you say about them. There's no such thing as "constructive criticism" in politics.

    Al Gore backed away from the Clinton Administration in his campaign - and lost much of his power base. Sure, Bill Clinton was messy and impeached and triangulating and somewhat compromised. But he was also loved. People are better with flawed characters than fickle fair-weather ones.

    Only a fool thinks that Hillary could take the Obama road in 2008 and then switch to something else in 2016. Especially not as a woman. Obama governed as a careful establishment & precedent heeding figure, and that's what Hillary inherited, both as foreign policy and domestic. She can extend and tweak, but a clean break would simply doom her.

    But it's not all bad. Despite all the call for revolution, most of the public has an inherent understanding of the limits of our system. Hispanics aren't expecting a big kiss - they're hoping for some grudging acceptance. Blacks aren't looking for a renaissance - they're trying to survive, cover the basics and a little more. If it gets better than that, they'll surely be happy, but they're mostly just looking for a seat at the table. Women more than anyone know they'll still end up with the shopping and kids and dishes and judged on their looks, but a bit fairer shake, more equitable paycheck, more respect in the office and around town will make things nicer. That's it.

    One of the key complaints of establishment politics is trying to please everyone - but that's also what's required to get elected and stay there, especially with high stakes national office and diverse constituencies. Even Obama did that, even though in his first campaign people seemed to judge him as a personal Rorschach test, believing him to be whatever they wanted him to be. Hillary doesn't have it so easy. She plays it the old fashioned way, paying attention to this group and that, being careful not to speak too loud or slight anyone - even though some people are anxious to be offended no matter what. So she pulls in political and union endorsements, pays attention to black and Hispanic and female and Jewish issues and the "white vote", deals with various industry groups from high tech to health care to financial to foreign policy, along with core issues in race, security, poverty, environment and economics. There's a lot of compromise there, which is good, because it's a lot better to nudge the ball forward a bit on all fronts than to hit a home run on one. You may not please everyone, but you can please most by a little bit, and that's generally good enough.

    Ken Kesey described the great journalist Tom Wolfe in his impeccable white suit helping him move some still wet art piece and getting paint on him - "goddamn it, Tom, can't you see? you can't mess with it without getting a bit on you". Bernie's always been a bit above the fray - but it's rather hard to lead the fray if you're not one of them. And the fray is rather dismembered and impulsive and chaotic and self-contradictory. Somehow you have to split the middle of a vast bubbling moving target.

    Hillary played the odds in 2008, and the odds again this year. At the moment she looks good to go, but you never quite know - it's been up and down the last 8 months, and could change any moment now. Some want you to succeed, some want you to lose - and the reasons aren't even all that consistent.

    So Bernie's made a good go of it, but we'll see whether it comes together, or if he finds someone or something to wrap himself around when things turn tough, a mast to tie himself to on the high seas. I've noticed a few times that Hillary gets into trouble and she learns to hone her message, rediscover herself, and it's not just her - her followers have to find a new mantra and way of expressing her too. I imagine it'll be much the same with Bernie - that you don't leave the squall with the same ideals and outlook as you entered it with - I think Edgar Allen Poe summed it up with A Descent into the Maelström.

    So lets hope Bernie enjoys his learning experience - it's great to speak in grand pronouncements, but another friend used to say "sell the dream, but close the deal". And that deal's usually a lot smaller and closer to home, to daily reality. For some it's disappointing, for others it's just how the world works - you pays your nickel and takes your chances.

    Comments

    A pleasure to read, well done. And especially so because I agree with you, Bernie's getting into the fray and his comment about Clinton was not pretty.  In fact, put a comment like that into a general election, and you might hand the election to your opponents.

    Of course, I love that Koch is now praising Bernie, man wouldn't he love to throw a billion in advertising against a socialist, weak on defense, quirky New Englander trying to win a general election.  

     


    I think what we're seeing from Bernie is proof of the old paradox:

    Campaigning gets a lot harder when you think you might win.

    "Principle above results" is a lot easier to get away with when you're thirty points behind than it is when you're neck and neck. But it's also harder to sell "principle above results" as a campaign goal once you've had to stop campaigning that way.


    "Hillary doesn't have it so easy. She plays it the old fashioned way, paying attention to this group and that, being careful not to speak too loud or slight anyone - even though some people are anxious to be offended no matter what. So she pulls in political and union endorsements, pays attention to black and Hispanic and female and Jewish issues and the "white vote", deals with various industry groups from high tech to health care to financial to foreign policy, along with core issues in race, security, poverty, environment and economics. There's a lot of compromise there, which is good, because it's a lot better to nudge the ball forward a bit on all fronts than to hit a home run on one. You may not please everyone, but you can please most by a little bit, and that's generally good enough."

    Yes to that, too. There are no guarantees that her plan will work, either. We're dealing with an opposing party the likes of which we've never seen before, which means we have to be realistic about what it will take to win. The entrenched hatred toward Hillary may be her undoing but the way she is doing it might just bring sane Republicans over to her side. And, considering who she is, this is probably the only way she could do it and make an impact.


    Hillary just got the endorsement of Rep. James Clyburn. This is important because Clyburn was neutral in 2008. Bill Clinton blamed Clyburn for Hillary's loss to Barack Obama in a 3:00 am phone call. Clyburn was not intimidated by the Clintons. The fact that Clyburn sees Hillary as the best choice speaks volumes.

    It will be interesting to see if Sanders brings in Cornel West to close the deal in the South Carolina Primary. Cornel introduced Sanders at an appearance in South Carolina in September 2015. Cornel West has written why he believes Brother Bernie is better for the black community than Sister Hillary. A black South Carolina state Representative, Bakari Sellers, responded with a rebuttal noting Sander's stance on guns, his late support of the Affordable Care Act, and his threat to put the ACA on the block to get single payer health care. We are reminded of West's hatred of Obama. Additionally, we are forced to address the fact that Sanders voted for a shortened background check system in the Brady Bill that was supported by the NRA.

    The SC Primary will be the first true indication if there is a wide divide between young African-American voters and their elders.

    http://www.npr.org/2016/02/17/466933452/clinton-versus-sanders-the-rift-...

     


    If I were black, I can't Imagine I'd vote for anyone over Obama. Certainly not personal against anyone, Hillary or whoever. Reasonably qualified, close to election? You bet, pull the lever - 3 or 5 times as needed.

    It's nice Clyburn's endorsed Hillary this time, but I doubt if Bill or anyone is still fretting over 2008.

    Dismissing the "first black president" nonsense, I do think it was useful that Vernon Jordan spent so much time around the White House with Bill - image-wise we got used to the idea, plus I think he got more airplay than AL Gore - maybe Vern was really the first black VP

     


    Obama remains popular among black voters. Bringing in Cornel West may be a huge mistake for Sanders. Backing the shortened background check may prove problematic for Sanders in South Carolina because Dylan Roof, the shooter in the Charleston Massacre, was able to take advantage of the shorter time demanded to clear his purchase despite a clerical error that may have been picked with a longer waiting period.


    (warning: white boy conjectures ahead) Yes, Obama's still popular among blacks, and I think whites largely have trouble understanding that except the obvious of his color, but I think there's something deeper there in that blacks see a different kind of machinery at work when dealing with The Man - and just because Obama's president doesn't mean he's The Man - it's the control machinery itself. Whites will see one set of compromises as normal, and blacks will see a different set based on a different set of road-blocks and possibly few expectations for what running the office will mean - it's long been the struggle more than what to do once you arrive. Bush followers wanted a mandate, a blood bath once he hit office. I'd guess the bulk of black voters were happy to just let Obama figure out what to do, not a litany or wishlist - especially with the economic meltdown and auto / bank bankruptcies sucking up all the oxygen.

    And then whites will have trouble putting Dylan Roof and other black grievances in the same order and same significance as blacks would treat them. Blacks are religious but in a different vein than whites, a slightly different mix of liberal & conservative ethics. It's not quite progressive politics even though it might look that way.


    There are differences. Occupy Wall Street essentially ignored black people. Michael Moore is a Progressive hero. Moore endorses Bernie Sanders. However many remember Moore as the white guy who went on "Real Time with Bill Mahrer" and expressed his disappointment with President Obama by saying that he "voted for the black guy but got the white guy."

    https://www.balloon-juice.com/2011/09/14/michael-moore-quotes-bill-maher...

    This came after Mahrer on another episode said that he expected Obama to be "gangsta".

    http://angryblackladychronicles.com/2010/11/13/the-internet-is-fun/

    Blacks see condescension from the Right and condescension from the Left. 

    Ralph Nader suggested that Obama talked white and played on white guilt.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/06/25/nader-obama-trying-to-tal_n_109...

    Nader and Cornel West tried to organize a primary challenge to President Obama. Sanders suggested a Primary challenge.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ralph-nader-cornel-west-lead-eff...

     

     


    And Morgan Freeman just cut an ad for Hillary, so it's probably game over - he counts as 1000 Wests, no? Except he's old, so maybe the youth vote needs Kanye... except he's almost 40. Need some fresh blood.

    Update: just checked the comments on Politico and they're all busy blacksplaining Morgan. He'll be regretting he didn't get on the Bernie Bus to  Freedom  Winning All the Time™.


    When Bernie talked about a primary challenge in 2011, he wasn't expecting to run for President in 2016 and frankly he wouldn't have pulled any punches even if he was planning to run.  He has an excellent explanation for telling Ed Schultz (or was it Thom Hartmann) that the President was moving right because he faced no challenge from the left.  It was true.

    As much as Bernie is touted (by me) as a straight shooter, he has been too reticent in explaining why he said what he did.  Sanders should have said to Chuck Todd:

    In 2011, President Obama was openly contemplating a grand bargain with Republicans which included cutbacks to social security payouts.  This would have been devastating to future seniors and led to sharp increases in poverty rates as new generations aged into a poorer meaner retirement.  I viewed and continue to view cutbacks to social security as a repudiation of the social contract we have with working-class Americans that, in return for 30-40 years of labor, they should be able to retire in comfort and dignity.  For that reason, I did not reject out-of-hand a primary challenge to President Obama.


    Hal, so you're saying that there should be a social contract, government provided, that in return for 30 or 40 years of some kind of labor---presumably with hands---guaranties a retirement of comfort and dignity?

    Have you noticed that people manage their affairs differently, their spending and savings patterns are different? Most of them have the safety net but beyond that a comfortable and dignified retirement is not the government's responsibility, or anyone else's.

    ACA removed the worst catastrophic threat to comfort and dignity when it removed pre-existing conditions---and yet ACA is just chopped meat.

    You're making me into a Romney man.


    We disagree on all counts. 1) I don't believe a hard-working American who has a run of bad luck or is a gamaholic or an alcoholic forsakes the right to at a minimum a secure retirement.  Otherwise, yes people deserve a comfortable and dignified retirement.  2) Your statement that "ACA removed the worst catastrophic threat . . . " is false as many millions of Americans still aren't covered.  3) Finally, your throw-in that "ACA is just chopped meat" demonstrates you buy into the dishonest Clinton claim that Sanders wants to take away people's Obamacare without first ensuring that we all have something better.  You most certainly have my blessing to vote for Mitt Romney.


    Sanders says that he wants to expand Obamacare. The truth is that his single payer program would dismantle Obamacare, Medicare, and Medicaid.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2015/11/23/bernie-sa...

    Sanders does want to repeal Obamacare and replace it with what he considers a better plan. Obamacare would be on the chopping block.


    No worries. All those senior citizens well be so excited to give up their Medicare for Something Better. They will rush to vote for Sanders in the general cause who doesn't want Something Better.


    Hal, on your point 1., everyone, regardless of their worst personal habits or even former criminal acts, deserves a safety net.

    Maybe it's semantics, but all the government assistance we have is something other than a "secure retirement".

    In any case, I'll vote for Bernie or whoever the Democratic nominee is. But should it be Bernie, a  statement like "people deserve a comfortable and dignified retirement" will leave us turning in the wind because the underlying sentiment in this country is that of individual effort, self reliance.

    "Senator Sanders says people deserve a comfortable and dignified retirement. Did he spend 30 years developing this grand idea? Of course not---because there is not one person in this room who doesn't already know they deserve a dignified retirement. I know it and you know it. But the question is how---and Senator Sanders answers "government, government, government" and most of the people in this room know that that is a disastrous fairy tale. Government will not secure us a dignified retirement. We do that for ourselves. Let no man or woman sleep on the street and beg for food. But let no one depend upon the government to secure his retirement for that is a Mr. Sandman fairy tale which will bankrupt us all. We are a strong and self reliant people."


    PP, Bernie has been in politics for, what, three centuries or so? He knows how the game is played and has been playing it quite effectively for the past few months. Indeed when Bernie accuses Hillary of sucking up to black voters, he's not learning the game, he's playing it. The difference is that he's playing the insurgent, which involves calling out his opponent's gamesmanship. Indeed, I'm beginning to think that Bernie is a better player than Hillary because he's able to play the game without looking like he's playing the game.

    That's not to say that he's a phony. I don't think either of them are phonies. But he is neither the naif that critics dismiss nor the saintly idealist that supporters adore. He is a politician, exploiting his advantages and his opponents weaknesses to promote a political agenda and get elected. If he weren't such a good politician, we wouldn't even be having this discussion.


    Yes, I realize he's not naive or learning to his shock that Hillary panders. The reason Bernie doesn't look like he's playing the game is that he's dropped into the seat of the progressive wing car much like a Bradley in 2000, and the car drives itself - he just needs to give good speeches and tick off the progressive talking points. Of course he's sitting in the "drivers seat" but it's one of those Google self-driving cars - the activists in the party will make him their Gandhi and give him the touch-ups he needs.

    I put a link to one of the Gore-Bradley debate up recently - worth Googling up one of the transcripts, as it's deja vu all over again. From Pie-in-the-sky plans that don't add up to non-transparency etc etc. Of course these were pre-Iraq 2 and 9/11, so the foreign part's different bit not much.


    I think you're selling him short as a politician. Yes, his success is obviously contextual. If he'd run in 2004, he might have been another Kucinich. But he didn't run in 2004, did he? At a minimum, he has good timing. But I expect that it's more than that. Kucinich in 2016 might have done better than Kucinich in 2004 or 2008, but I don't think too many people would be feeling the Dennis. Sanders has actually run a tight and effective campaign--targeted, on message, well-organized, charismatic on the stump, articulate in the debates, etc., none of which is not easy to do.


    You're rather giving him a bit too much credit - in 2004 he first ran for Senate - would have been rather ballsy for a Congressman to run against such a packed field, including Howard Dean from his own state.

    Nor were LGBT issues like gay marriage accepted or popular in 2004 (they largely helped the Republicans), and being anti-war wasn't terribly winning either - they wouldn't have even had to try hard to Swift Boat Bernie.

    But I'd agree he's run a tight effective campaign this year, which as we've seen historically from both parties is not easy to do.


    Since Sanders has been in politics for "three centuries or so" and knows how the game is played, why has he only been playing it effectively for the last few months? Running for the presidency isn't required to try to lead the country in a direction you believe best, especially if your message is backed up by action. It isn't even necessary to wait until you're in elected office to get started ... just ask Elizabeth Warren.


    He was playing it effectively in Vermont for quite some time. His national prominence has been more recent, but it goes back at least to 2010, when he delivered that "filibuster" against the tax package that Obama negotiated. Elizabeth Warren is also very good, better than Sanders, I think, though we'd have to see how she runs a presidential campaign to compare.


    Cornel West? Not likely to help, since he's about as popular with the black community these days as George Zimmerman.

    Best line I've read all week. This was a very well conceived and delivered post. Salute!


    Our dear brother Cornel West said "Hillary Clinton is the Milli Vanilli of modern politics", this line was so ridiculous that West was immediately mocked.

    http://thedailybanter.com/2016/02/cornel-west-proves-why/

    West thinks that he is talking smack to his buddies rather than being a spokesman for a national political campaign.

     


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