The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age

    Biden almost bests Hillary

    By PeraclesPlease on Wed, 03/18/2020 - 2:50am |

    Remember how in 2016 the media and party told Bernie it's over, that Hillary had it wrapped up, just like for Joe with his whopping 150 margin post-Super Tuesday? Me neither.

    I do remember a lot about Superdelegates, as if that changes things.


    Hillary lead in pledged delegates:
    197 Nebraska of 1130
    206 Mississippi of 1334
    321 Ohio of 2031 (halfway point)
    296 Utah of 2162
    230 Washington of 2304
    ================
    4051 Total Pledged Delegates

    Biden vs Bernie lead in pledged delegates
    78 lead as of Virginia of 1502
    150 lead as of Washington of 1867 (168 to other candidates) - almost halfway
    286 lead as of Florida of 2176
    ======================
    3979 Total Pledged Delegates

     

    How about 2008, 3564 total pledged delegates

    Hillary 20 lead as of Super Tuesday of 2,129

    Ignoring Florida & Michigan as kind of cancelled (Hillary strong states)

    Obama 101 lead after Wisconsin 2583

    Obama 106 lead after Mississippi 2998

    Obama 94 lead after PA out of 3085 (end of April)

    Obama 109 lead after North Carolina out of 3313 (May 6)

    Obama 86 lead after Oregon out of 3444

    Obama 63 lead final of 3530 ignoring MI/FL

    (MI/FL had 313 pledged delegates. A likely strong showing for Hillary in Jan or Feb primaries would have created a much different narrative, ignoring the constant barrage about Superdelegates)

    Comments

    That was easy:

    3/16/16 Hillary slams the door on Bernie

    3/17/16 Obama Privately Tells Donors That Time Is Coming to Unite Behind Hillary Clinton

    That said, I grant that there are more calls for him to drop out than at this time in 2016. But the context is also very different. In 2016, people saw Hillary as a shoe-in to beat Trump, so there was no sense of urgency. Such complacency is long gone.

    PS And Covid-19. Personally, I think he should drop out so that states can cancel primary elections to reduce the contagion.


    by Michael Wolraich on Wed, 03/18/2020 - 11:26am

    Yeah, Obama's private missive to donors was totally effective, forgot press and party moved on and Bernie dropped out Mar 18, despite those clairvoyant polls showing how much stronger he was 8 months away.

    For some reason Bernie seems to be hinting to Joe that he might pack it in, perhaps won't demand a big seat at the convention to consider holding his nose enough to vote for Biden.

    That said, the pandemic does beg to lay off politics a few months and deal with the crisis.


    by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 03/18/2020 - 1:37pm