Campaign Thoughts (pt 3)

    How short is the typical American's memory? Which details affect it more - a debate, a Saturday Night Live spoof, a policy speech, a partisan attack, a new round of scandal...? And which affect voting?

    Attempts to bring up Trump connections with Russia will probably fail - a bit like Trump bringing up Bill to distract from his sex scandals. Even though there's more interesting fodder to the Russian case. Plus Trump can say he has a "relationship" with Putin and then say he doesn't know him. The NY Times dismisses an encrypted strange Trump-Russian bank computer link as "just marketing spam". No one seems to care.  Except maybe the Brits?

    If I had a guess, Donald's stiffing his pollster for $750K is a clearer, cleaner negative than most anything coming out the last few days, more than not paying taxes. Nobody likes not being paid, everyone has a story about it, a rich guy who does that repeatedly is not endearing. Whether that breaks through the news cycle is another thing.

    As the election approaches, Iraqi troops encroach on ISIS-held Mosul and rebels fight gov troops fight Kurds in Aleppo. Strange that our proxy war in Iraq & Syria is so much out of the news - in our past elections, "support the troops", "the surge worked", and anything military related was essential to candidate cred and American interest. What's taken our interest off our usual war infatuation?

    How important is Huma as Hillary's #1 confidante and get-things-done aide? I've little concern it'll change the final days of the campaign, though probably hurts, but in terms of transition and governing, her absence would likely shake up Hillary's comfort zone over the last what, 16-20 years?

    Early voting of up to 40 million votes plays a heavy role in a final tally around 170 million - how many of those early votes come before the latest mock-scandal, and how many are affected by it? (a voter planning on voting this past weekend or next was probably already decided...) Most analysis is addressing Democrat turnout vs. Republican, but the bigger interest is Independents, undecideds, and ultimately disaffected Republicans.

    Speaking of which, the GOP seems to have re-found its candidate - aside from a few prosecutors who find Trump beyond the pale, and Kasich who wrote in McCain's name, it's all traditional baggage smears with the base once again. But maybe with this pivot, Republicans once again will find it hard to say they're distancing themselves from Trump while embracing him. Well, of course they'll say anything...

    More in doubt than Hillary's election are the Senate and House races. Senate still looks good, but polling's falling. But again, polling is based on certain assumptions about turnout and the voting mix. Were Hillary voters more likely to turn out with the slam dunk, feel good vibe of a week ago, or with the scared, "oh no, not again..." concern of this week? Complacency vs. despair, enthusiasm vs. moral necessity.

    And voting once again means vote obstruction. Way too predictable when North Carolina got let out of the Voting Rights Act judicial oversight. Isn't there a way for Obama to provide monitors to make sure violations don't occur? or is that too tied to the purse, requiring Congressional approval?

    One thing I haven't seen mentioned - while Trump's wealth seems less than he brags about, his penchant for suing and ability to fund it means any close electoral battles could turn into drawn-out contested court cases after the election. Florida 2000, times 5?

    Presuming Dems take the Senate, consider the nuclear option invoked (retiring Harry Reid was always shy to do that assertively, trusting Republicans way too much). What with 10 months of stonewalling Obama and a threat to block all Hillary's nomination, there's no grey zone anymore - Republicans aren't to be trusted, and the courts must be filled whether they like it or not. Does the typical Republican voter care?

    How's the gender divide responding to the latest sexting & FBI intrigue? Two professional women, best friends and working partners, trapped in the continual improprieties of two irresponsible men, a spouse on the outs and a political DC climber. Makes for a great movie plot, or better, a TV series - how about that crossover women's vote? Who's not telling the male unit how they'll pull the handle?

    Remember how TV made the OJ Bronco scene, along with Elian and the Florida recount? We're about into post-Television politics, as Fox News melts down and the infatuation with CNN everywhere 24x7 subsides. News is post-TV, well into the mobile era, and after several generations of iPhone and Android, our news consumption is driven by it. How did TV ads do this cycle vs. online ads? Which got more play, which had more effect?

    The latest Comey-Gate kerfluffle ironically might not be the wish Trump hoped for - while it gives Hillary's name a bad place in the spotlight, Donald likes his name in the spotlight. With few days left in the campaign, and his TV budget pretty shut & unallocated, he needed to get his mug on free TV news to keep his usual relevancy going. Or at least per his usual M.O. Has he stopped tweeting, or is the news just not reporting?

    Was nice to see Hillary in a happy mood telling jokes for a few days. Gone are the days of summer fall.

    Comments

    Okay, Jeff Greenfield @politico must be reading my columns, put out 5000 word piece on The Day After just minutes after I mentioned it.


    (echo)


    Somehow I missed this blog.  You covered all the bases, but it's gotten worse since you wrote it.  Do you still feel optimistic about the senate and HILLARY?  I am getting very worried. I feel as though there is something afoot that is beyond our control.


    Don't panic - as goes Chicago, so goes the nation... - post-debate freefall tapered off.

    Even Brexit ruling shows a pivot to sanity. I suspect the Comey trick has been deflected by a full-on oppo research play, as well as a much better Get Out The Vote (early) effort.

    Again, the Hillary team has been very well prepared, whatever mistakes she's made.


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